Estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation with Different Sunshine-Based Models for Some Burundian Stations

Sunshine duration (S) based empirical equations have been employed in this study to estimate the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (G) for six meteorological stations in Burundi. Those equations include the Ångström-Prescott linear model and four amongst its derivatives, i.e. logarithmic, exponential, power and quadratic functions. Monthly mean values of daily global solar radiation and sunshine duration data for a period of 20 to 23 years, from the Geographical Institute of Burundi (IGEBU), have been used. For any of the six stations, ten single or double linear regressions have been developed from the above-said five functions, to relate in terms of monthly mean values, the daily clearness index () to each of the next two kinds of relative sunshine duration (RSD): and . In those ratios, G0, S0 and stand for the extraterrestrial daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface, the day length and the modified day length taking into account the natural site’s horizon, respectively. According to the calculated mean values of the clearness index and the RSD, each station experiences a high number of fairly clear (or partially cloudy) days. Estimated values of the dependent variable (y) in each developed linear regression, have been compared to measured values in terms of the coefficients of correlation (R) and of determination (R2), the mean bias error (MBE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the t-statistics. Mean values of these statistical indicators have been used to rank, according to decreasing performance level, firstly the ten developed equations per station on account of the overall six stations, secondly the six stations on account of the overall ten equations. Nevertheless, the obtained values of those indicators lay in the next ranges for all the developed sixty equations:;;;, with . These results lead to assert that any of the sixty developed linear regressions (and thus equations in terms of and ), fits very adequately measured data, and should be used to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation with sunshine duration for the relevant station. It is also found that using as RSD, is slightly more advantageous than using for estimating the monthly average daily clearness index, . Moreover, values of statistical indicators of this study match adequately data from other works on the same kinds of empirical equations.

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

Load Cluster Characteristic and Modeling of EV Charge Station in Residential District

电动汽车的大规模发展将会对配电网带来较大影响,开展电动汽车充电的负荷特性研究是保证电网安全运行的前提,是引导电动汽车进行有序充电的基础。在简化锂电池恒流–恒压2阶段充电模型的基础上,得到单个电动汽车的充电模型,以此为基本元素,从充电汽车电池的初始荷电状态（initial state-of-charge,SOC0）和车辆到达充电站时间的随机分布为出发点,提出2阶段泊松分布的电动汽车充电站集聚模型进行充电站集聚特性的模拟,并提出基于充电站的日充电负荷曲线的电动汽车充电站负荷集聚模型的建模方法,最后通过仿真算例验证了其有效性。

Space station short-term mission planning using ontology modelling and time iteration

This paper studies the problem of the space station short-term mission planning, which aims to allocate the executing time of missions effectively, schedule the corresponding resources reasonably and arrange the time of the astronauts properly. A domain model is developed by using the ontology theory to describe the concepts, constraints and relations of the planning domain formally, abstractly and normatively. A method based on time iteration is adopted to solve the short-term planning problem. Meanwhile, the resolving strategies are proposed to resolve different kinds of conflicts induced by the constraints of power, heat, resource, astronaut and relationship. The proposed approach is evaluated in a test case with fifteen missions, thirteen resources and three astronauts. The results show that the developed domain ontology model is reasonable, and the time iteration method using the proposed resolving strategies can successfully obtain the plan satisfying all considered constraints.

基于Modelica/MWroks的船舶电站控制系统建模与仿真研究

本文以船舶电站控制系统为研究对象,基于多领域统一建模Modelica/Mworks仿真验证平台搭建了船舶电站控制系统的仿真模型,得到了船舶电站控制系统中的同步发电机组的励磁电压,同步发电机输出电压,同步发电机转速和发电机组有功功率等重要曲线参数,为船舶电站控制系统的研究提供了模型基础。

合理确定排涝泵站规模的感潮河道模型试验研究

合理确定泵站规模一直是感潮河道排涝工程设计中的关键问题。通过建立物理模型,在选定的水文边界条件和相应工程运行要求下,对某感潮水系两座涌口泵站规模进行试验研究。试验发现,受限于河涌过流能力,泵站规模存在临界值,超过该值后,即使再进一步增加泵站规模,水位也不会继续下降;泵站抽排对某位置水位的降低效应与泵站和该位置之间的距离密切相关,距离越近,水位降低越明显。基于上述认识,通过试验确定了满足水位管控要求的两座泵站规模的合理组合:距离相对较远的温涌泵站为80 m3/s,较近的金紫涌泵站为130 m~3/s。试验方法和主要成果可为工程方案比选及优化提供重要依据,对类似河涌整治工程也具有一定的借鉴意义。

An Anisotropic Geomechanical Model for Jointed Rock Masses at Taishan Nuclear Power Station, Southern China

An anisotropic geomechanical model for jointed rock mass is presented. Simultaneously with deriving the orthotropic anisotropy elastic parameters along the positive axis, the equivalent compliance matrix for the deflection axis orthotropic anisotropy was derived through a three- dimensional coordinate transformation. In addition, Singh＇s analysis of the stress concentration effects of intermittent joints was adopted, based on two groups of intermittent joints and a set of cross- cutting joints in the jointed rock mass. The stress concentration effects caused by intermittent joints and the coupling effect of cross-cutting joints along the deflection-axis are also considered. The proposed anisotropic mechanics parameters method is applied to determine the deformation parameters of jointed granite at the Taishan Nuclear Power Station. Combined with the deterministic mechanical parameters of rock blocks and joints, the deformation parameters and their variability in jointed rock masses are estimated quantitatively. The computed results show that jointed granite at the Taishan Nuclear Power Station exhibits typical anisotropic mechanical characteristics; the elastic moduli in the two horizontal directions were similar, but the elastic modulus in the vertical direction was much greater. Jointed rock elastic moduli in the two horizontal and vertical directions were respectively about 24% and 37% of the core of rock, showing weakly orthotropic anisotropy; the ratio of elastic moduli in the vertical and horizontal directions was 1.53, clearly indicating the transversely isotropic rock mass mechanical characteristics. The method can be popularized to solve other rock mechanics problems in nuclear power engineering.

Study on Risk Dispatch Model of Hydropower Station in the Market Environment

In the power market environment, due to the uncertainty of the reservoir inflow and the pool purchase price, it is very important to research power generation risk dispatch of hydropower plants, taking into consideration the benefits and risk control of both sides. This paper investigates power generation risk dispatch of hydropower plants in the market environment, and proposes a mathematical model which considers maximization of benefits and risk control, reflects control willingness of risk and benefits, resolves it with the PSO algorithm, finding more economic and reasonable results. The feasibility and validity of the model and resolving methods are verified by an example.

抽蓄电站无压隧洞交叉区体型优化试验研究

交叉无压隧洞交汇区域水流的水力特性复杂,无压隧洞交叉区体型及交汇口水流水力特性的研究对确保水利枢纽的安全运行具有重要的工程意义。基于物理模型试验,对某抽水蓄能电站下水库高落差泄洪排沙洞和放空洞交叉区体型进行优化,最终确定圆弧连接+交叉角21°的交叉区体型。对比分析圆弧连接+交叉角21°的交叉区优化体型下特征试验工况的水力特性。结果表明,6种特征试验工况下,泄洪排沙洞和放空洞交叉口及下游均为急流,明流泄洪且流态较稳定,均在交汇口下游右边直墙处形成最大水深,水深低于直墙高度,满足水面线不宜超过直墙范围的要求。

Three-dimensional CFD simulation of inlet structure flow in pumping station based on Eulerian solid- liquid two-phase flow model

Sediment deposition in the pumping station has a huge negative impact on unit operation.The three-dimensional CFD method has been used to simulate inlet structure flow in pumping station based on the Eulerian solid- liquid two-phase flow model. The numerical results of the preliminary scheme show that sediment deposition occurs in the forebay of pumping station because of poor flow pattern therein. In order to improve hydraulic configuration in the forebay,one modified measure reconstructs water diversion weir shape,and another measure sets a water retaining sill in the approach channel. The simulation results of the modified scheme prove that back flow in the forebay has been eliminated and the sediment deposition region has also been reduced.

多源融合降水和智能网格预报在渭河一次洪水预报中的应用

选取2018年6月28日至7月15日渭河干流魏家堡水文站洪水过程为研究对象,开展多源融合降水和智能网格预报在洪水模拟中的应用试验。结果表明,以多源融合和站点实况降水为输入均能较好地模拟洪水过程,因此在无降水观测资料的流域,采用多源融合降水产品代替站点实况降水进行洪水模拟分析和计算是可行的,但多源融合降水模拟的径流深和洪峰流量较小。在魏家堡水文站两次洪水过程洪峰出现前48 h的面雨量相差不大的情况下,产流量相差显著,说明前期土壤湿度对渭河流域的产流影响很大,防汛时特别要关注持续性降水的影响。以落地雨进行洪水预报的预见期为12 h,以智能网格预报产品作为降水输入,能够提前84 h预报出超保证流量的洪峰流量,将洪水预见期由12 h延长至84 h。但以智能网格降水预报计算的面雨量与实况面雨量相比有一定的高估,造成了模拟的洪峰流量和径流深相对误差较大。建议针对不同的天气背景开展面雨量订正方法研究,以提高面雨量预报准确率,在延长洪水预见期的同时,进一步提高洪水预报精度。

基于数字孪生的电解整流所运维系统

为了保证电解铝厂整流所设备安全稳定运行,提高整流所运行和维护的效率,本文提出了一种基于数字孪生技术的整流所设备运维系统。数字孪生技术旨在构建虚拟空间中建立数字化设备模型,通过双向交互数据流模拟物理设备的实时状态和动态特性。通过整流所现场采集器与通讯管理机交换数据,并将数据传输至运维管理系统,运维管理系统采用数字孪生技术构件的设备数据化模块,对整流所所有设备的状态数据、工艺参数和环境各种数据信息转变为数字信息,实现智能运维和全景可视化监控,为整流所运行维护、系统调度、现场设备巡检提供指导,充分保障整流所设备安全可靠运行,实现整流所设备全生命周期管理,提高整流所智能化、可视化和数字化水平。

轨交站域建成环境评测研究的方向、指标与趋势

建成环境评测是轨交站域城市更新的前提,在新的实践和技术背景下,总结该领域的进展和趋势具有指导意义。从环境行为、指标评价两个方向归纳了轨交站域建成环境评测研究的创新发展与前沿;通过梳理近三十年来的主要文献,探讨了轨交站域建成环境评测指标演进的4个阶段及其特征;最后总结得出认知与评价角度的多元化拓展、评测指标的人本导向与适应性、学科交叉与评测方法的综合化三个方面的研究趋势。

天气雷达站电磁环境影响监测研究

天气雷达站产生的超标电磁辐射会对人体造成严重的损伤。为此,提出天气雷达站电磁环境影响监测与分析。分析天气雷达站电磁影响因素,结合发射天线的方向函数,构建雷达功率密度模型。测试结果表明,对于S波、C波段、X波段,真实值与计算值呈现随距离增加而降低的趋势。对于三个波的频段,当接近天线的远场区时,计算值与真实值逐渐接近,相对误差均较小,说明模型在远场区的适用性更强;研究算法与实测值的拟合程度较高;在模型的应用中,真实反映了某市区的电磁辐射情况。

Simulation Modeling on Emergency Evacuation in High-Speed Railway Stations in China

A simulation study on occupant evacuation in high-speed railway stations （HSRSs） was presented in China. Pathfinder was employed as the simulation platform and a typical HSRS in a medinm-sized city in China was selected for model development. The model was carefully calibrated and validated by comparing simulation results with field data. Evacuation efficiency could be improved with the increased door width while such effect decreased when the door width reached a marginal value. And the marginal value varied under different occupant densities. An exponential function between evacuation lime and occupant density was fitted, indicating that occupant density significantly affected evacuation efficiency. A set of different evacuation strategies were compared, in terms of their evacuation performances. It was found that a balanced door usage would result in more efficient evacuations in HSRSs. Thus occupant flows were suggested to be managed considering door capacity. To avoid potential safety issues caused by such strategy （ e. g. , more occupants could be evacuated from a smaller area designed with higher door capacity ）, occupants needed to enhance their awareness of following evacuation guidance instead of panic escape in emergencies. Moreover, such safety issues could also be avoided during the design phase that the evacuation capacity was designed to be proportional to the room capacity for each floor. The results of this study provide valuable information for HSRS design and flow management in China.

舟山LNG取水泵站泥沙减淤清淤试验研究

LNG接收站取水流道内水流形态复杂,泥沙淤积问题往往难以避免,特别是在含沙量较高水域,流道内泥沙淤积可能威胁接收站的正常运营。为实现LNG取水泵站不停机条件下清淤,开展取水泵站射流冲刷物理模型试验,模拟了射流冲沙装置开启后吸水间射流水流特征及冲刷效果,探究了射流冲刷设置的喷嘴与翼墙夹角、射流流量、冲刷时间等因素影响下流道内减淤清淤效果。试验结果表明,在理想状态下吸水间射流冲沙装置连续作用12h基本可达到较为理想的清淤效果;一次大风浪过后,装置连续作用0.5h基本可达到较为理想的清淤效果。清淤效果视射流流量、喷嘴与翼墙夹角以及冲刷时间不同而有差别。结合取水泵站泥沙淤积物理模型试验研究成果,取水泵站淤积区主要发生在前池、过滤池末端、吸水间和消防泵附近,建议在这些区域安装射流冲沙装置,实现不停机状态下的减淤清淤,提高取水安全保证率,从而提高运营效益。

一种用于中国空间站增强现实维护应用的自动跟踪框架

跟踪注册是增强现实(Augmented reality,AR)中一项至关重要的技术。基于人工标识和基于图像的注册方法已广泛应用于增强装配系统中。然而,由于空间产品的弱纹理、结构对称、数据有限以及难以张贴标识等特点,空间站的跟踪注册仍面临挑战。本文提出了一种专门为中国空间站诱导维修应用设计的三维物体跟踪方法,旨在用AR技术取代传统的纸质手册,为宇航员提供更直观的操作指导。本文提出了一种无标记的中国空间站智能维护方法。采用点对特征方法来估计初始帧姿态,不需要手动调整来获得相应的姿态,这对宇航员来说至关重要,因为在微重力环境中精确运动是一项重大挑战,而且结合曲率信息可以提高采用点对特征方法估计初始帧姿态的效率。通过结合纹理和区域信息,消除了对宇航员位置的精确限制,进一步增强了空间对称产品的跟踪鲁棒性。该方法利用点云匹配来估计第一帧的初始姿态,并在失去跟踪后重新计算姿态。一旦获得了前一帧的姿态,则仅根据二维图像的区域和纹理信息来计算跟踪,以获得实时跟踪。实验结果表明:本文方法与基于标识的方法具有相同的姿态趋势;基于电子游标卡尺测量之间的误差在毫米级;使用专门为航天产品设计的专用工具成功更换过滤器,证明了在空间站上实施诱导维修程序的实用性和潜力。

考虑站点耦合关系的大型城市轨道交通网络级联失效分析

为了解析站点分布密集的大型城市轨道交通网络级联失效传播机理,提出改进的耦合映射格子模型.该模型结合大型城市轨道交通网络站点分布密集特征,量化耦合站点间客流演化及耦合站点抵抗力.为了衡量级联失效在大型城市轨道交通网络中的传播过程与结果,提出失效站点数量比与网络效率比指标.以上海市城市轨道交通网络为例,验证该模型的可行性.结果表明:当节点度高或进站客流量大的站点失效后,耦合站点间的级联失效规模是邻接站点间的约2倍,且由于耦合站点间的级联失效的影响,介数中心性大的站点失效所引起的级联失效传播速度最快.在考虑耦合站点间级联失效时,客流对大型城市轨道交通网络级联失效的作用力是拓扑结构的约9倍.研究结论可以为城市轨道交通网络的规划设计与事故管控提供科学的建议.

基于马尔科夫模型的双站激光微波混合链路性能分析

针对气象变化对自由空间光(Free Space Optical,FSO)通信链路和毫米波射频(Radio Frequency,RF)通信链路可用率的影响问题,采用马尔科夫建模与稳态概率求解计算方法,分析不同天气条件下FSO/RF混合链路的双接收站分集与中断概率性能.基于FSO链路和RF链路的信道模型,采用有限状态马尔科夫链(Finite State Markov Chain,FSMC)分别对单双站FSO/RF混合链路的切换选择进行建模,推导得出不同参数和天气情况下系统稳态的中断概率表达式.数值计算结果表明,当中断概率达到10^(-6),雨雾天气链路距离为1~7 km时,双站FSO/RF混合链路相比单站可获得4~25 dB的增益.

地铁车站BIM模型信息完备性审查研究

随着智能建造的发展,三维正向设计逐渐替代了传统二维设计,对设计成果的交付审查也将同步转换为对建筑信息模型的审查。地铁建筑设计区别于其他建筑具备较强的功能性,在实际设计交付成果审查中,会存在错审率、漏项高等问题。为解决该问题,本文依据相关国家标准,构建适用于地铁车站建筑信息模型完备性审查的本体模型,同时集成工业基础类(IFC 4.0)实例信息、计算机规则技术,实现模型完备性审查。以地铁车站的建筑单元为例,实现地铁车站模型在方案设计阶段的交付工作。该方法的提出有助于促进整个建筑行业的信息化发展。