Uphill or downhill?Cropland use change and its drivers from the perspective of slope spectrum

The continuous decrease of low-slope cropland resources caused by construction land crowding poses huge threat to regional sustainable development and food security.Slope spectrum analysis of topographic and geomorphic features is considered as a digital terrain analysis method which reflects the macro-topographic features by using micro-topographic factors.However,pieces of studies have extended the concept of slope spectrum in the field of geoscience to construction land to explore its expansion law,while research on the slope trend of cropland from that perspective remains rare.To address the gap,in virtue of spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,the cropland use change in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed and the driving factors were explored from the perspective of slope spectrum.Results showed that the slope spectrum curves of cropland area-frequency in the YRB showed a first upward then a downward trend.The change curve of the slope spectrum of cropland in each province(municipality)exhibited various distribution patterns.Quantitative analysis of morphological parameters of cropland slope spectrum revealed that the further down the YRB,the stronger the flattening characteristics,the more obvious the concentration.The province experienced the greatest downhill cropland climbing(CLC)was Shannxi,while province experienced the highest uphill CLC was Zhejiang.The most common cropland use change type in the YRB was horizontal expansion type.The factors affecting average cropland climbing index(ACCI)were quite stable in different periods,while population density(POP)changed from negative to positive during the study period.This research is of practical significance for the rational utilization of cropland at the watershed scale.

THE DETECTION OF CLIMATE ABRUPT CHANGE WITH MANN-KENDALL RANK STATISTICS

The characteristics of Mann-Kendall Rank Statistics and its applications in detecting abrupt change of climate have been described.At the same time,a new method is put forward to detect the abrupt change in variance.

Land Use and Land Cover Change on Slope in Qiandongnan Prefecture of Southwest China

This study uses DEM （Digital Elevation Model） data and remote sensing maps of the study area in 1993, 1999, and 2009 to analyze the slope gradient change of land use patterns in Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou province, China. The land use data were classified into five types, forest, farmland, grassland, water and built-up, the slope gradients were divided into four grades. Indices for analyzing land use features were defined by their proportions, transformation matrixes, land use degree and changes The results showed that all land use types can be found at every gradient. Generally, with the slope degree increased, the area of forest being augmented as well, while the area of the other land use types （farmland, grassland and build-up） declined. Moreover, a mass of farmland were shifted from other land use types from o° to 25°, while a quantity of forest were transformed from the other land use types on 〉 25° from 2993 to 2009. In terms of land use degree and changes, the area of farmland and buildup land use types decreased when slope degree increased. Finally, we calculated the five landscape pattern metrics： Patch Density （PD） value, Largest Patch Index （LPI）, Shannon＇s Diversity Index （SHDI）, Area-Weighted Mean Shape Index （AWMSI） and Contagion Index （CONTAG）. The results of metricsanalysis showed that PD values, SHDI values and CONTA values had a similar variation trend, that is, they decreased when slope degree increased. There was no obvious variation trend on LPI value.

Soil Organic Carbon Pools in Particle-Size Fractions as Affected by Slope Gradient and Land Use Change in Hilly Regions,Western Iran

This study was conducted to explore the effects of topography and land use changes on particulate organic carbon(POC),particulate total nitrogen(PTN),organic carbon(OC) and total nitrogen(TN) associated with different size primary particle fractions in hilly regions of western Iran.Three popular land uses in the selected site including natural forest(NF),disturbed forest(DF) and cultivated land(CL) and three slope gradients(0-10 %,S1,10-30 %,S2,and 30-50%,S3) were employed as the basis of soil sampling.A total of 99 soil samples were taken from the 0-10 cm surface layer in the whole studied hilly region studied.The results showed that the POC in the forest land use in all slope gradients was considerably more than the deforested and cultivated lands and the highest value was observed at NF-S1 treatment with 9.13%.The values of PTN were significantly higher in the forest land use and in the down slopes(0.5%) than in the deforested and cultivated counterparts and steep slopes(0.09%) except for the CL land use.The C:N ratios in POC fraction were around 17-18 in the forest land and around 23 in the cultivated land.In forest land,the silt-associated OC was highest among the primary particles.The enrichment factor of SOC,EC,was the highest for POC.For the primary particles,EC of both primary fractions of silt and clay showed following trend for selected land uses and slope gradients:CL> DF> NF and S3 > S2> S1.Slope gradient of landscape significantly affected the OC and TN contents associated with the silt and clay particles,whereas higher OC and TN contents were observed in lower positions and the lowest value was measured in the steep slopes.Overall,the results showed that native forest land improves soil organic carbon storage and can reduce the carbon emission and soil erosion especially in the mountainous regions with high rainfall in west of Iran.

Impact of slope farmland use change on ecosystem services value in China,2000-2020

Slope farmland is an important component of farmland resources in China.The utilization and change of slope farmland have significant effects on ecosystems,and understanding the impact of slope farmland change on ecosystem services(ESs)is critical for effective land utilization and ecosystem protection.This study aims to analyze slope farmland changes in China between 2000 and 2020 and quantify the impact of these changes on ESs by the use of a land use dynamic attitude study,and an ecosystem services value(ESV)equivalent.Results show that the area of slope farmland in China was mainly concentrated on slopes of 2°-6°,and exhibited a downward trend between 2000 and 2020.There were significant differences in the spatial distribution of the farmland,which was mainly located in the Taihang,Qinling,Wushan,and Xuefeng mountains.ESV increased by$179.235 million due to the conversion between slope farmland and forest,grassland,and construction land from 2000-2010.Conversely,from 2010 to 2020,ESV decreased by$2613.919 million due to the conversion of forest and grassland to slope farmland as well as the conversion of slope farmland to construction land.

Preliminary results on a near-real-time rock slope damage monitoring system based on relative velocity changes following the September 5,2022 M_(S) 6.8 Luding,China earthquake

Relative seismic velocity change(dv/v)is important for monitoring changes in subsurface material properties and evaluating earthquake-induced rock slope damage in a geological disaster-prone region.In this paper,we present a rapid damage assessment on three slow-moving rock slopes by measuring dv/v decrease caused by the 2022 M_(S) 6.8 Luding earthquake in Southwest China.By applying the stretching method to the cross-correlated seismic wavefields between sensors installed on each slope,we obtain earthquake-induced dv/v decreases of~2.1%,~0.5%,and~0.2%on three slopes at distances ranging from~86 to~370 km to the epicenter,respectively.Moreover,based on seismic data recorded by 16 sensors deployed on the rock slope at a distance of~370 km away from the epicenter,a localized dv/v decease region was observed at the crest of the slope by calculating the spatial dv/v images before and after the earthquake.We also derive an empirical in situ stress sensitivity of -7.29×10^(-8)/Pa by relating the dv/v change to the measured peak dynamic stresses.Our results indicate that a rapid dv/v assessment not only can help facilitate on-site emergency response to earthquakeinduced secondary geological disasters but also can provide a better understanding of the subsurface geological risks under diverse seismic loadings.

Sediment Provenance and Climate Changes Since the Middle Pleistocene in the Yingqiong Continental Slope of the South China Sea

The age,grain size compositions and major elemental compositions for sediments in core YQ1 from the Yingqiong continental slope in the South China Sea was determined in this paper.It is noted that the periodically cyclic change of sedimentation rates occurred in the Yingqiong continental slope in the South China Sea.During the interglacial periods,the sedimentation rates were high,while the sedimentation rates exhibited low values during the glacial periods.During Marine Isotope Stage 1(MIS1),the sedimentary rate could reach about 800 cm kyr-1 and during the MIS6 this area is characterized by the lowest sedimentary rate,which is lower than 3 cm kyr-1.According to the R-mode factor analysis of the major element data,three factors F1(Al2O3,Fe2O3,TiO2 and K2O),F2(MgO and MnO)and F3(Na2O and P2O5)were obtained,which shows that vertical change of the major elemental concentrations in the core was mainly controlled by the nearby terrestrial inputs and the early diagenesis,while the effect of volcanic and biogenous inputs was less.The obvious glacial-interglacial cyclic features are presented in the changes of the typical terrestrial element ratios contained in factor F1,which reflects the impact of glacial-interglacial climatic cycle on the evolution of the East Asian monsoon.This indicates that the major element ratios in terrestrial sediments are significant indicators of regional climate changes.

A Study of Soil Nutrients in the Terrace Field Changed from Mountain Slope in Three Gorges Reservoir Region

In order to accurately grasp the soil fertility in Three Gorges Reservoir Region after changing mountain slope into terrace field,we take Wushan County for example,and use the spatio-temporal substitution method to analyze the soil nutrient status and trend about the terrace field changed from mountain slope under different length of implementation.The results show that the soil fertility is generally low in the study area,and according to the soil nutrient grading standards in the second national land survey,the average content of total nitrogen,available potassium,organic matter and available phosphorus reaches Standard III,Standard III,Standard IV and Standard V,respectively,and the spatial heterogeneity of soil nutrients is small.Compared to the sloping land,the terrace field changed from mountain slope has increasing soil nutrients on the whole with the length of farming.The mean of various indicators about soil nutrients in the terrace field changed from mountain slope for 2 years is lower than in the sloping land,and there is the biggest difference in soil fertility,while the mean of various indicators about soil nutrients in the terrace field changed from mountain slope for 14 years shows a linear upward trend,and the difference in soil fertility decreases.

Statistical characteristics of mesoscale eddies on the continental slope in the northern South China Sea

The continental slope in the northern South China Sea(SCS) is rich in mesoscale eddies which play an important role in transport and retention of nutrients and biota. In this study, we investigate the statistical properties of eddy distributions and propagation in a period of 24 years between 1993 and 2016 by using the altimeter data. A total of 147 eddies are found in the continental slope region(CSR), including 70 cyclonic eddies(CEs) and 77 anticyclonic eddies(ACEs). For those eddies that appear in the CSR, the surrounding areas of Dongsha Islands(DS) and southwest of Taiwan(SWT) are considered as the primary sources, where eddies generated contribute more than 60% of the total. According to the spatial distribution of eddy relative vorticity, eddies are weakening as propagating westward. Although both CEs and ACEs roughly propagate along the slope isobaths, there are discrepancies between CEs and ACEs. The ACEs move slightly faster in the zonal direction, while the CEs tend to cross the isobaths with large bottom depth change. The ACEs generally move further into the basin areas after leaving the CSR while CEs remain around the CSR. The eddy propagation on the continental slope is likely to be associated with mean flow at a certain degree because the eddy trajectories have notable seasonal signals that are consistent with the seasonal cycle of geostrophic current. The results indicate that the eddy translation speed is statistically consistent with geostrophic velocity in both magnitude and direction.

Analysis of forest cover change at Khadimnagar National Park, Sylhet,Bangladesh, using Landsat TM and GIS data

We mapped the forest cover of Khadimnagar National Park （KNP） of Sylhet Forest Division and estimated forest change over a period of 22 years （1988-2010） using Landsat TM images and other GIS data. Supervised classification and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） image classification approaches were applied to the images to produce three cover classes, viz. dense forest, medium dense forest, and bare land. The change map was produced by differencing classified imageries of 1988 and 2010 as before image and after image, respectively, in ERDAS IMAGINE. Error matrix and kappa statistics were used to assess the accuracy of the produced maps. Overall map accuracies resulting from supervised classification of 1988 and 2010 imageries were 84.6% （Kappa 0.75） and 87.5% （Kappa 0.80）, respec- tively. Forest cover statistics resulting from supervised classification showed that dense forest and bare land declined from 526 ha （67%） to 417 ha （59%） and 105 ha （13%） to 8 ha （1%）, respectively, whereas medium dense forest increased from 155 ha （20%） to 317 ha （40%）. Forest cover change statistics derived from NDVI classification showed that dense forest declined from 525 ha （67%） to 421 ha （54%） while medium dense forest increased from 253 ha （32%） to 356 ha （45%）. Both supervised and NDVI classification approaches showed similar trends of forest change, i.e. decrease of dense forest and increase of medium dense forest, which indicates dense forest has been converted to medium dense forest. Area of bare land was unchanged. Illicit felling, encroachment, and settlement near forests caused the dense forest decline while short and long rotation plantations raised in various years caused the increase in area of medium dense forest. Protective measures should be undertaken to check further degradation of forest at KNP.

Monitoring Forests: A New Paradigm of Remote Sensing &GIS Based Change Detection

Remote sensing has emerged as the main tool for mapping and monitoring of forest resources globally. In India, this technological tool is in use for biennial monitoring of forest cover of the country for the last 25 years. Among the numerous applications of remote sensing in forest management, change detection is the one which is most frequently used. In this paper, a new paradigm of change detection has been presented in which change of vegetation in a grid (a square shaped unit area) is the basis of change analysis instead of change at the pixel level. The new method is a simpler approach and offers several advantages over the conventional approaches of remote sensing based change detection. The study introduces an index termed as ‘Grid Vegetation Change Index (GVCI)’, its numerical value gives quantified assessment of the degree of change. The minus value of GVCI indicates loss or negative change and similarly positive value vice versa. By applying the GVCI on a pair of remotely sensed images of two dates of an area, one can know degree of vegetation change in every unit area (grid) of the large landscape. Based on the GVCI values, one can select those grids which show significant changes. Such ‘candidate grids with significant changes’ may be shortlisted for ground verification and studying the causes of change. Since the change identification is based on the index value, it is free from human subjectivity or bias. Though there may be some limitations of the methodology, the GVCI based approach offers an operational application for monitoring forests in India and elsewhere for complete scanning of forest areas to pointedly identify change locations, identifying the grids with significant changes for objective and discrete field inspections with the help of GPS. It also offers a method to monitor progress of afforestation and conservation schemes, monitor habitats of wildlife areas and potential application in carbon assessment methodologies of CDM and REDD+.

基于聚类和项目相似性的Slope One算法优化

随着用户项目数量的增长,用户项目矩阵变得越来越稀疏,使用基于最小生成树的k-means算法对项目进行聚类并以聚类结果对用户评分矩阵进行预测填充。考虑到Slope One算法存在用户兴趣变化问题,将时间权重加入Slope One算法中进行评分预测。将改进后的算法在Movie Lens数据集上进行验证,结果表明,改进后的算法可有效解决稀疏性问题和用户兴趣变化问题,并将MAE值降低到0.015以下。

Change Point Detection for Process Data Analytics Applied to a Multiphase Flow Facility

Change point detection becomes increasingly important because it can support data analysis by providing labels to the data in an unsupervised manner.In the context of process data analytics,change points in the time series of process variables may have an important indication about the process operation.For example,in a batch process,the change points can correspond to the operations and phases defined by the batch recipe.Hence identifying change points can assist labelling the time series data.Various unsupervised algorithms have been developed for change point detection,including the optimisation approachwhich minimises a cost functionwith certain penalties to search for the change points.The Bayesian approach is another,which uses Bayesian statistics to calculate the posterior probability of a specific sample being a change point.The paper investigates how the two approaches for change point detection can be applied to process data analytics.In addition,a new type of cost function using Tikhonov regularisation is proposed for the optimisation approach to reduce irrelevant change points caused by randomness in the data.The novelty lies in using regularisation-based cost functions to handle ill-posed problems of noisy data.The results demonstrate that change point detection is useful for process data analytics because change points can produce data segments corresponding to different operating modes or varying conditions,which will be useful for other machine learning tasks.

Quantitative hazard assessment system(Has-Q) for open pit mine slopes

Rock slope hazard assessment is an important part of risk analysis for open pit mines.The main parameters that can lead to rock slope failures are the parameters traditionally used in geomechanical classifications,the slope geometrical parameters and external factors like rainfall and blasting.This paper presents a methodology for a hazard assessment system for open pit mine slopes based on 88 cases collated around the world using principal components analysis,discriminant analysis and confidence ellipses.The historical cases used in this study included copper,gold,iron,diamond,lead and zinc,platinum and claystone mines.The variables used in the assessment methodology are uniaxial compressive strength of intact rock;spacing,persistence,opening,roughness,infilling and orientation of the main discontinuity set;weathering of the rock mass;groundwater;blasting method;and height and inclination of the pit.While principal component analysis was used to quantify the data,the discriminant analysis was used to establish a rule to classify new slopes about its stability condition.To provide a practical hazard assessment system,confidence ellipses were used to propose a hazard graph and generate the HAS-Q.The discriminant rule developed in this research has a high discrimination capacity with an error rate of 11.36%.

Effect of Climate Change on Cotton Lugus lucorum Occurrence Degree

[Objective] The aim was to analyze effect of climate change on occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum in coastal areas of Jiangsu Province, in order to provide authentic references for better prevention. [Method] Statistical analysis was conducted on Information about occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum in Binhai County in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2007 under guidance of Integral regression method. [Result] Because of climate change, cotton Lugus lucorum occurrence de- grees differed in different generations and growth stages in Binhai County. Tempera- ture and humidity constituted the main climate factors. In general, climate change hindered occurrence degree from increasing. We could make use of the period when occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum is prone to significant increase and choose some periods, such as early April, late June and middle August, to improve prevention effect. In addition, attention should be paid to comprehensive measures, such as adjustment of industrial structure, which will reduce pesticide and minimize cotton Lugus lucorum damage and adverse impact from prevention measures. [Conclusion] The results provided authentic references for cotton Lugus lucorum preven- tion in Jiangsu coastal areas.

DAMAGE DETECTION FOR COMPOSITE STRUCTURE UNDER TEMPERATURE CHANGES USING LAMB WAVES

A two-step method is proposed for detection and identification of invisible impact damage in composite structure under temperature changes using Lamb waves.First,a statistical outlier analysis is employed to distinguish whether the changes of Lamb wave signals are induced by damage within a monitoring area or are only affected by temperature changes.Damage indices are defined after the Lamb wave signals are processed by Fourier transform,and a Monte Carlo procedure is used to obtain the damage threshold value for the damage indices at the undamaged state.If the damage indices in the operation state exceed the threshold value,the presence of damage is determined.Then,a probabilistic damage imaging algorithm displaying probabilities of the presence of damage within the monitoring area is adopted to fuse information collected from multiple actuator-sensor paths to identify the location of damage.Damage indices under damaged state are used to generate the diagnostic image.Experimental study on a stiffened composite panel with random temperature changes is performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Time Sequence Change-Point Model of Electrostatic State Parameters of Aircraft Engine

Electrostatic monitoring technology of particle charging information can facilitate online monitoring of aero-engine,which effectively enhances engine fault diagnosis and health managements.Unlike traditional engine state monitoring technologies,aircraft engine monitoring by gas path electrostatic monitoring not only covers the predicted information source itself,but also detects the information that can provide an early warnings for initial fault states through gas path charging levels.This paper establishes a non-stationary time sequence change-point model for anomaly recognition of electrostatic signals based on change-point theory combined with difference method of non-stationary time series.Finally,electrostatic induction data were utilized by the engine life test for a particular aircraft to validate the proposed algorithm.The results indicate that the activity level and the event rate were0.5—0.8(nc)and 50%,respectively,which were far greater than 4—12(pc)and 0—4% under normal working conditions of the engine.

LUCC （Land Use and Cover Change） and the Environmental-Economic Accounts System in Brazil

The objective of this work is to produce statistics that are going to show changes occurred in Brazil＇s ecosystems and these statistics are going to join the SEEA （Environmental-Economic Accounts System）. It is based by a SEEA＇s methodology, diffused by UN （United Nations）, which aims an approach between economic and environmental statistics, producing international comparability and conceptual uniformity to evaluate change process in land cover and land use that occurs in several countries. It is necessary to verifying the suitability of methodological procedures to Brazilian reality and the access to all information and files needed. The first step was analysing MODIS （Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer） as orbital instrument on the purposed classification method. The choice of this sensor was made because of the product＇s quality and its capacity to generate images of a large area, though the challenge is to identify accurate Land usage＇s categories in images with a spatial resolution of approximately 250 m. After the final classification, the next step is to make a quantification and comparison of data from these different years using a 1 km2 grids, as proposed in an already used methodology by the European Environment Agency. This procedure will allow evaluate and identify the process of changing in each grid of the land cover and land use, and provide historical series of the chosen years.

Probabilistic stability analyses of undrained slopes by 3D random fields and finite element methods

A long slope consisting of spatially random soils is a common geographical feature. This paper examined the necessity of three-dimensional(3 D) analysis when dealing with slope with full randomness in soil properties. Although 3 D random finite element analysis can well reflect the spatial variability of soil properties, it is often time-consuming for probabilistic stability analysis. For this reason, we also examined the least advantageous(or most pessimistic) cross-section of the studied slope. The concept of"most pessimistic" refers to the minimal cross-sectional average of undrained shear strength. The selection of the most pessimistic section is achievable by simulating the undrained shear strength as a 3 D random field. Random finite element analysis results suggest that two-dimensional(2 D) plane strain analysis based the most pessimistic cross-section generally provides a more conservative result than the corresponding full 3 D analysis. The level of conservativeness is around 15% on average. This result may have engineering implications for slope design where computationally tractable 2 D analyses based on the procedure proposed in this study could ensure conservative results.

Rock-soil slope stability analysis by two-phase random media and finite elements

To investigate the strong random nature of the geometric interfaces between soil and rock, a rock-soil slope is considered as a two-phase random medium. A nonlinear translation of a Gaussian field is utilized to simulate the two-phase random media, such that the soil(or rock) volume fraction and the inclination of the soil layer can be examined. The finite element method with random media incorporated as the material properties is used to determine the factor of safety of the rock-soil slope. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to estimate the statistical characteristics of the factor of safety. The failure mode of the rock-soil slope is examined by observing the maximum principal plastic strain at incipient slope failure. It is found that the critical surface of a rock-soil slope is fairly irregular, and it significantly differs from that of a pure soil slope. The factor of safety is sensitive to the soil volume faction, but it is predictable. The average factor of safety could be well predicted by the weighted harmonic average between the strength of soil and rock; the prediction model is practical and simple. Parametric studies on the inclination of the soil layer demonstrate that the most instable scenario occurs when the slope angle is consistent with the inclination of the soil layer.