Comprehensive evaluation on hydrocarbon-bearing availability of fault traps in a rift basin: A case study of the Qikou sag in the Bohai Bay Basin, China

An evaluation system of hydrocarbon-bearing availability of fault traps was established based on the comprehensive analysis of fault segment growth history,fine reservoir anatomy and geochemistry tracing,with the Qikou sag in the Bohai Bay Basin as target area.The displacement/separation transform and displacement gradient method were used to prove the interpretation reliability of fault traps.The method of maximum throw subtraction was used to recover the history of fault growth and determine the availability of the forming period of fault traps.Based on the quantitative relationship between shale gouge ratio and cross-fault pressure difference of known reservoirs in southern Qikou sag,the critical shale gouge ratio of fault lateral sealing was calculated at 20%,and the quantitative evaluation chart based on the relationship of"fault throw–sand-formation ratio and hydrocarbon column height"was constructed.Based on the results of reservoir fine anatomy and quantitative fluorescence tracing test shale smear factor method is suitable for evaluating the vertical sealing of faults in the caprock of the middle submember of first member of Paleogene Shahejie Formation,and the shale smear factor critical value is 3.5.The juxtaposition thickness method is suitable for evaluating vertical sealing of faults in the caprock of the second member of Paleogene Dongying Formation,and the critical juxtaposition thickness of fault is 70–80 m.By combining four factors,the availability of fault trap interpretation,the availability of the forming period of fault trap,the availability of fault lateral sealing and the availability of fault vertical sealing,the comprehensive evaluation chart on hydrocarbon-bearing availability of fault traps in Qikou sag has been established,which provides a reasonable basis for risk assessment of fault traps.

Evaluation of BDS and GPS RAIM availability based on data collected in June 2020

The satellite pseudo-range fault detection with the Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring(RAIM)method is affected by several satellite observations and the geometric distribution of satellites.The poor geometry distribution of satellites will conceal the positioning errorcaused by the satellite pseudo-range fault,resulting in unreliable detection results.Therefore,the availability evaluation must be made before RAIM to ensure that the fault detection performance will not be affected.On June 23,2020,China successfully launched the 30 th(last)navigation satellite of BeiDou’s third-generation navigation satellite system(BDS-3),which is also the 55 th BeiDou navigation satellite.Combining all the available satellites of BDS-1,BDS-2 and BDS-3,the positioning performance of BDS can be greatly improved.In order to evaluate the RAIM availability of BeiDou Navigation Satellite System(BDS)and Global Positioning System(GPS)in China,this paper first deduces the mathematical models and their characteristics of the three RAIM availability evaluation methods.Then,the study area(N10°-70°,E60°-150°)is divided into 4536 grid points at intervals of 1°×1°in latitude and longitude,and the elevations of these grid points are taken from the global terrain data file.The Horizontal Protection Level(HPL)values of these grid points are calculated during 8-15 June 2020 using BDS and GPS ephemeris data.The RAIM availability differences between the two systems are compared and analysed.The analysis shows the Horizontal Protection Level method(HPLM)based on single-satellite pseudo-range fault is the most practical and convenient.During the 8-day observation period,the HPL values of BDS are significantly smaller than those of GPS in terms of geographic location and observation time,and the variation of HPL time series of BDS is also smaller than that of GPS,which indicates that the RAIM availability of GPS in China is not as good as that of BDS.Most importantly,in the four flight stages of the aircraft’s Oceanic/Continental lowdensity En-route,Continental En-route,Terminal En-route and Non-precision approach(NPA),BDS can completely satisfy its RAIM availability requirement,while GPS can only meet the availability requirement of the En-route(Oceanic/Continental low density)phase,and the availability of the other three phases can at least reach 99.714%.

An Availability Evaluation Method of Web Services Using Improved Grey Correlation Analysis with Entropy Difference and Weight

Web services is one of the basic network services, whose availability evaluation is of great significance to the promotion of users’ experience. This paper focuses on the problem of availability evaluation of Web services and proposes a method for availability evaluation of Web services using improved grey correlation analysis with entropy difference and weight (EWGCA).This method is based on grey correlation analysis, and use entropy difference to illustrate the changes of availability, set weight to quantize availability requirements of different operations or transactions in services. Through simulation experiment in high load scenarios for Web services, the experiment result shows that our method can realize hierarchical description and overall evaluation for availability of Web services accurately in the case of smaller test sample volumes or uncertain data even in the field of big data.

Availability evaluation of controller area networks under the influence of intermittent connection faults

Controller area networks(CANs),as one of the widely used fieldbuses in the industry,have been extended to the automation field with strict standards for safety and reliability.In practice,factors such as fatigue and insulation wear of the cables can cause intermittent connection(IC)faults to occur frequently in the CAN,which will affect the dynamic behavior and the safety of the system.Hence,quantitatively evaluating the performance of the CAN under the influence of IC faults is crucial to real-time health monitoring of the system.In this paper,a novel methodology is proposed for real-time quantitative evaluation of CAN availability when considering IC faults,with the system availability parameter being calculated based on the network state transition model.First,the causal relationship between IC fault and network error response is constructed,based on which the IC fault arrival rate is estimated.Second,the states of the network considering IC faults are analyzed,and the deterministic and stochastic Petri net(DSPN)model is applied to describe the transition relationship of the states.Then,the parameters of the DSPN model are determined and the availability of the system is calculated based on the probability distribution and physical meaning of markings in the DSPN model.A testbed is constructed and case studies are conducted to verify the proposed methodology under various experimental setups.Experimental results show that the estimation results obtained using the proposed method agree well with the actual values.

Auditory steady-state evoked response in diagnosing and evaluating hearing in infants

BACKGROUND: Auditory steady-state evoked response (ASSR) is one of the new objective electrophysiological methods to test hearing in infants. It can provide a reliable and complete audiogram with specific frequency to help the hearing diagnosis and rehabilitation of hearing and languaging following auditory screening. OBJECTIVE: To compare the response threshold of ASSR with auditory threshold of visual reinforcement audiometry (VRA) in infants failed in the hearing screening for investigating their hearing loss. DESIGN: A comparative observation. SETTINGS: Maternal and child health care hospitals of Guangdong province, Shunde city, Nanhai city and Huadu district. PARTICIPANTS: Totally 321 infants of 0-3 years undergoing ASSR test were selected from the Hearing Center of Guangdong Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital from January 2002 to December 2004. Informed consents were obtained from their guardians. There were 193 cases (60.2%) of 0-6 months, 31 cases (9.7%) of 7-12 months, 17 cases (5.3%) of 13-18 months, 14 cases (4.4%) of 19-24 months, 33 cases of 25-30 months, and 33 cases (10.2%) of 31-36 months. METHODS: ① The 321 infants failed in the hearing screening were tested under sleeping status, the ranges of response threshold distribution in ASSR of different frequencies were analyzed in each age group. ② The infants above 2 years old were also tested with VRA, and their response thresholds were compared between VRA and ASSR. ③ Evaluative standards: The response threshold was < 30 dB for normal hearing, 31-50 dB for mild hearing loss, 51-70 dB for moderate hearing loss, 71-90 dB for severe hearing loss, and > 91 dB for extremely severe hearing loss. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ① ASSR results of the infants failed in the screening; ② Proportion of cases of each response threshold in each age group; ③ Comparison of ASSR response thresholds and VRA auditory thresholds in the infants of 2-3 years old. RESULTS: ①The response threshold was < 30 dB in 47.4% of the 321 infants failed in the initial hearing screening and secondary screening after 42 days. ② Severe to extremely severe hearing loss was detected in only 16 cases (8.3%) of the 193 infants of 0-6 months, in 9 cases (27.3%) of the 33 infants of 25-30 months, and 13 cases (39.4%) of the 33 infants of 31-36 months. Of the 193 infants of 0-6 months old who failed in the initial screening and the second screening after 42 days, the ASSR auditory threshold was < 30 dB in 97 cases (50.26%), 31-50 dB in 63 cases (32.6%), 51-70 dB in 17 cases (8.8%), 71-90 dB in 7 cases (3.6%), and > 91 dB in 9 cases (4.7%). ③ Among the 321 infants failed in the screening, the auditory threshold in the 6 age groups was < 30 dB in 47.4%, 31-50 dB in 27.1%, 51-70 dB in 8.4%, 71-90 dB in 6.2%, and > 91 dB in 10.9%. ④ The difference between ASSR response threshold and VRA auditory thresholds was 6-18 dB in the normal hearing group, mild and moderate hearing loss groups, and there was high correlation between them. The difference of ASSR and VRA thresholds was less than 5 dB between extremely severe and severe hearing loss groups, 5-13 dB between extremely severe and moderate-to-severe hearing loss groups (P < 0.05), and there was no significant differences between severe and moderate-to-severe hearing loss groups (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: ① The hearing was normal in about half of the infants, although they failed in the primary screening and secondary screening. ② The proportion of the severity of hearing loss was increased along with aging. ③ Mild and moderate hearing losses are dominant in infants. ④ ASSR is reliable to evaluate the hearing of infants.

An efficient reliability evaluation method for industrial wireless sensor networks

Aimed at the difficulties in accurately, comprehensively and systematically evaluating the reliability of industrial wireless sensor networks （WSNs）, a time-evolving state transition-Monte Carlo （TEST-MC） evaluation method and a novel network function value representation method are proposed to evaluate the reliability of the IWSNs. First, the adjacency matrix method is used to characterize three typical topologies of WSNs including the mesh network, tree network and ribbon network. Secondly, the network function value method is used to evaluate the network connectivity, and the TEST-MC evaluation method is used to evaluate network reliability and availability. Finally, the variations in the reliability, connectivity and availability of these three topologies are presented. Simulation results show that the proposed method can quickly analyze the reliability of the networks containing typical WSN topologies, which provides an effective method for the comprehensive and accurate evaluation of the reliability of WSNs.

Evaluation on abundance or deficiency of avai－lable trace elements in soil of middle area in China and the effect of applying trace element fertilizer

The authors selected the west part of Xinxiang City,Henan Province in the north China plain as a typical region and carried out assessments of the abundanca or deficiency of the trace ele- ments(B,Mn,Mo,Zn,Cu,Fe)in soil.It can be seen from results that more than 80% of the farmland is deficiency of zinc(<1.0ppm),40% of molybdenum(0.15ppm),38% of boron(0.5ppm),29% of manganese(100ppm)and 13% of iron(7.0ppm)and that the content of available trace ele- ments in soil are related to the topography closely.Next the proper application of trace elements on grain crops is presented.

中国水资源短缺标准与分区评价

明确水资源短缺标准和区域缺水状态是水资源规划管理工作的基础,但现状没有形成共识和标准,影响水资源刚性约束和“四水四定”等制度政策的有效实施。研究分析了水资源短缺的概念内涵,选取年降水量和人均可利用水资源量指标,考虑外调水量和可利用过境水量等影响要素,建立了“双指标、四要素、三等级”的水资源短缺评价体系,通过计算现代生产力水平下不同区域供养一个人平均水资源需求量,并与区域实际人均可利用水资源量进行对比,提出不同分区水资源短缺和严重短缺的判断阈值,其中黄淮海流域为人均可利用水资源量600 m^(3)和400 m^(3),松辽流域为人均可利用水资源量800 m^(3)和500 m^(3),长江流域、珠江流域、东南和西南诸河区为人均可利用水资源量1500 m^(3)和1000 m^(3)。研究提出的水资源短缺判别标准显著低于1989年Falkenmark提出的人均水资源量1700 m^(3)标准,主要原因在于生产力水平和灌溉用水效率大幅提升。据此开展全国345个地市水资源短缺评价,结果表明,不短缺、短缺和严重短缺的地市占比分别为55%、23%和22%。

基于可用性的数据噪声添加方法研究

随着信息技术的加速发展,数据隐私保护逐渐成为研究热点。如何有效保护个人隐私并充分利用各种数据资源,成为亟待解决的问题。利用数据加噪实现隐私保护是目前较常用的方法之一,但目前缺乏对不同加噪方法对数据可用性影响的研究。文章对反映用户体验的“五星制”评价数据分别添加拉普拉斯噪声和高斯噪声,比较分析加噪后数据的平均绝对误差、均方根误差、方差增长率3个统计指标的变化情况。然后探讨添加两种噪声比例变化的组合噪声以及不同数据量对数据统计指标的影响规律。实验结果表明,当数据量较大时,添加高斯噪声的数据比例越大,加噪后数据的统计性能与原始数据越接近,能在实现个人隐私保护的同时,更好地保证数据的可用性。

虚拟主播促进消费者购买行为的底层逻辑、成效评价及发展路径

目前,虚拟主播的引用带动了消费者的购买行为的发生,成为一个研究热点。通过采集抖音平台主要虚拟主播的粉丝评论,运用扎根理论对采集的评论数据抽象出功能可供性、知觉可供性、认知可供性和物理可供性四个核心范畴,这与数字可供性的四个维度相吻合,嵌入SOR理论进行分析,结果表明功能可供性提供了消费者购买行为产生的现实可能性,知觉可供性推动消费者潜在购买行为,认知可供性对消费者购买心理产生起到信任催化的作用,物理可供性可即刻满足消费者的购买行为。主播吸引力和直播间商品销售情况可以量化虚拟主播模式对消费者购买行为的成效,以此为一级指标构建一套涵盖9个二级指标的成效评价体系。最后,为提高虚拟主播对消费者购买行为的推动还应做到:提升消费者对虚拟主播的价值认同;虚拟主播团队紧抓新技术赋能机遇;兼顾选品与售后,避免信任危机;治理有度,发展优先。

基于中国锂矿床及资源特征的2024—2035年锂供需形势分析

锂矿作为我国的战略性矿产,支撑我国战略性新兴产业发展,也是培育和发展新质生产力的新能源矿产,而碳酸锂等锂矿产品是锂电产业发展的基础原材料。锂矿资源是我国锂产业高质量发展的物质基础。我国锂矿床类型复杂多样,锂矿资源丰富,资源禀赋不佳,国内锂矿产品供应量较低,自2000年我国锂电产业发展至今,锂消费量不断攀升,锂精矿等锂矿产品对外依存度持续高企。本文对我国锂矿床类型、保有资源储量特征、矿石质量及空间分布等进行了分析;利用锂矿可供性评价方法等分析预测了我国2024—2035年矿山锂供应量、二次锂回收量等供应能力;利用锂部门消费法、灰色模型法等矿产资源需求预测方法与模型评价与预测了我国锂需求量;分析了我国锂供需形势。研究结果表明:(1)我国盐湖卤水型锂矿保有储量占比降至38.24%,而硬岩锂型占比升至61.76%,这“一升一降”重塑了中国锂矿储量格局,由“北多南少”变为“北少南多”;(2)从锂供应端看,锂总供应量包括矿山锂供应量与二次锂回收量,在参考情景下(碳酸锂价格10万元/t,内部收益率(IRR=10%)时),2025年、2030年和2035年我国矿山锂供应量分别为22.77万t、21.47万t和21.47万t,3个时点二次锂回收量分别为7.50万t、27.19万t和60.00万t;(3)从锂需求端看,3个时点我国锂需求量(LCE)分别为107.29万t、172.72万t和231.68万t,锂需求量呈不断增长趋势;(4)从锂供需形势看,2024—2035年我国锂供需形势严峻,随着锂电产业的发展,矿山锂供不应求的趋势不断加剧,3个时点国内矿山锂资源保障率分别约为21.22%、12.43%和9.26%。若考虑二次锂回收量,则我国锂供需形势有所缓解,3个时点锂总供应量对产业发展的保障率分别为28.21%、28.17%和35.16%,但仍保持需求大于供给的趋势。同时,提出加强锂矿地质勘查工作力度,在锂矿全产业链的关键环节突出企业科技创新作用与地位,重视二次锂回收利用,加大锂矿资源产品战略储备力度,“走出去”利用境外锂矿资源及产品等5条对策建议。本文所形成的认识结论、对策建议对我国编制“十五五”锂矿资源战略规划、制定锂矿资源管理政策等具有一定的现实意义。

渝南地区铝土矿资源可利用性研究

这一篇矿业工程领域的论文。为进一步研究渝南地区铝土矿资源的开发利用前景,本文采用实地调查法、问卷调查法、资料收集法等方法,通过构建矿产资源可利用性评价指标体系,基于层次分析及加权叠加法的评价模型对渝南地区铝土矿资源的可利用性进行深入研究和评价。首先根据专家打分结果,选择平均得分排名前12的指标作为本次评价指标,其次采用层次分析法确定12个评价指标的权重,最后运用加权叠加法确定各矿区的评价指数。评价指数得分数值越高,铝土矿资源的可利用性越高。渝南地区15个铝土矿区中无易利用矿区,可利用矿区4个,近期难利用矿区7个,难利用矿区4个。利用层次分析法和加强叠加法所建立的评价模型可为铝土矿资源的可利用性评价提供科学参考。

重庆南川区大佛岩铝土矿床有益元素分布特征及可利用性评价

为了理清重庆市南川区大佛岩铝土矿床有益组分分布特征及伴生元素可利用性,本文通过剖面测量、实地调查和样品分析等工作方法,对南川区大佛岩铝土矿床及其伴生元素的分布特征进行了深入研究,并建立了矿产资源可利用性评价模型。Ga质量分数高值区呈北东向和近南北向分布,中西部Ga质量分数高,北东部Ga质量分数较低。Li质量分数在梁山组中上部最高,最高为致密状铝土矿,其次为铝土岩,土状铝土矿中较低。Li的富集与铝土岩的关系较为密切。稀土元素的富集部位更容易出现于赋矿地层底部。评价模型对矿区铝土矿资源的评价结果为可利用。在开发利用铝土矿资源的过程中,可以考虑回收利用Ga元素。但是,由于Li、Sc、REE元素受到选冶技术和选矿成本等因素的限制,现阶段回收利用技术上虽然可行,但经济性存在瓶颈。因此,在开发利用铝土矿资源的同时,还需要探索更经济的回收利用技术,以提高资源的利用率。本文所建立的评价模型结合了评价指标体系,可为铝土矿资源的利用和评价提供科学参考,同时也为其他矿产资源的评价提供借鉴。当然,对于评价指标的选择和权重的确定需要根据不同的矿产资源和应用场景进行调整、优化,才能更好地满足实际需求。

不同焊缝简化方式下的多轴疲劳评估对比分析

为研究仿真中不同焊缝截面几何形状对所形成的焊接应力的影响,文章基于DVS 1612:2014及EN 15085-3:2007标准,针对转向架制动座角焊缝设立了三角形截面与底部凹槽两种结构方式,通过结构组合建立不同的焊缝模型,并分别进行静强度校核和多轴疲劳评估。结果表明:有三角形截面的焊缝模型,其多轴材料利用度相对无三角截面的焊缝模型最大增加25%;有底部凹槽的焊缝模型,其多轴材料利用度相对无底部凹槽的焊缝模型最多减小13%,且制动座静强度及疲劳强度满足要求。

社区糖尿病高危足足部管理最佳证据总结及证据可用性评价

目的:检索、汇总、评价社区糖尿病高危足足部管理最佳证据并进行证据可用性评价,为社区糖尿病高危足人群足部管理提供循证依据。方法:按“6S”模型系统检索国内外数据库关于糖尿病高危足人群足部管理的证据,包括临床决策、指南、推荐实践、系统评价、专家共识及证据总结,检索时限为建库至2022年10月31日。2位研究者负责独立评估文献质量,借鉴临床实践指南研究与评价系统(AGREEⅡ)与澳大利亚Joanna Briggs Institute(JBI)循证卫生保健中心确立的评估标准(2016),对符合质量标准的文献开展证据提取,并借助2014版JBI证据预分级系统完成证据分级。通过证据可用性评价筛选出社区情景下可用的证据。结果:共纳入16篇文献,包含7篇指南、2篇专家共识、5篇系统评价、1篇临床决策与1篇证据总结,归纳了足部筛查、多学科管理、运动评估、运动目的、运动方式及效果、运动时间及频率、运动强度、足部护理、鞋袜穿着、足部健康教育、随访监测11个方面共40条最佳证据,最终筛选出37条符合社区转化的证据。结论:本研究总结了糖尿病高危足足部管理的最佳证据,并充分考虑社区情境下证据可用性,对社区糖尿病高危足管理具有指导作用,为证据转化奠定基础。

智能洗烘产品联动界面的可用性评估研究

随着智能洗衣机以单品转向了以场景为核心的智能洗烘互联阶段,研究场景落地下衍生的联动双界面设计应如何更好地满足用户操作的流畅性、便捷性与用户偏好度。采用主客观多维评估方法,制定一屏智控、分屏联动、自动搭配三类洗烘双界面,通过情景模拟原型测试和可用性任务分析,综合用户的认知过程、行为陈述和情感导向的循环式链路,归纳总结出适用于联动产品下最优的软界面体验设计方案,提出优化策略与方向。从模块化布局、写实类元素、反馈式交互3个层面减少联动界面的使用成本、交互路径与学习门槛,提升用户体验。

基于混合模型的异构无人机蜂群效能评估

为实现无人机蜂群效能的快速评估,提出一种基于ADC(availability dependability capability)系统效能评估和BP神经网络预测的混合模型,以应对无人机蜂群配置和状态的多样性以及效能计算的复杂性。在分析蜂群效能构成要素的基础上,建立包含无人机通用平台能力,系统级能力,以及任务执行能力的能力指标体系。利用ADC法生成蜂群作战效能样本集合,运用BP神经网络构建关于无人机参数和能力指标的综合作战效能评估模型。利用该评估模型实现异构无人机蜂群实例的综合作战效能评估。结果表明:该模型评估误差可达5%以下,基于样本的评估时间可达3h以内,验证了该模型在异构无人机蜂群效能评估中的有效性及高效性。同时,通过分析数量、配置对无人机蜂群综合效能的影响,获得了异构无人机蜂群配置的可行建议。

石化企业火灾风险评估与消防系统性能评估

依据近年来发布的美国消防协会(NFPA)标准、美国石油学会(API)标准、美国《消防工程师手册》及我国相关防火标准,秉承基于风险的先进理念,文中试图说明消防系统的设置不仅应当基于火灾风险评估,还应结合项目实际进行消防系统的性能评估,以验证设计采取的消防安全措施对火灾风险控制达到的可接受程度。文中解析了火灾风险评估的3个关键要素:火灾危险性分析、火灾场景设定、消防需求分析;说明了消防系统性能成功率是3个性能指标(反应效率、在线可用性、操作可靠性)的概率乘积;指出系统反应时间非常关键,可接受的人员反应时间是小于或等于3 min。

基于可用度评价的混联装配线缓冲区优化配置方法

针对具有多设备并联、多工位串联、多条子生产线串并联特征的混联装配线,提出在缓冲区总容量约束下,以最大化系统可用度为目标的缓冲区优化配置策略。通过分析缓冲区状态对各工位设备的影响,将带有缓冲区的装配线等效处理;利用通用发生函数和串并联复合算子求解系统的可用度发生函数,建立缓冲区容量与系统可用度的数学模型;最后采用遗传模拟算法求解缓冲区的优化配置方案,以某医疗公司输液针装配线为例,评估与分析算法的优化结果,验证了该方案的可行性。

Quantitative evaluation modeling of mobile Ad Hoc networkcommunication service availability under failure|

The availability of network communication services is an important evaluation standard to measure the ability of the network to meet the user’s business needs.The current related research mostly focuses on the evaluation of network reliability,which cannot reflect the logical relationship between failure/maintenance and network performance parameters.Mobile Ad Hoc Network is a multi-hop,centerless and energy-constrained distributed system.Due to the dynamic change of communication environment and the instability of wireless link,Ad Hoc Network is facing great challenges in service availability.In this thesis,a fault-based quantitative evaluation model of traffic availability in Ad Hoc networks is proposed.By studying the multi-state Markov fault model of communication networks and the performance analysis of delay index based on CSMA\CA protocol,the quantitative evaluation of traffic availability in Ad Hoc networks is realized.And the availability of tactical unit network under different typical network configuration conditions is analyzed through experiments.