Manufacturing Capital Lingers in the Stock Market

Pressured by a slowdown in exports, cost increases and dwindling returns to manufacturing investments, China's manufacturing capital has begun to shift to the real-estate and stock markets. As a matter of fact, the stock market had already felt a shock a couple of years ago when top domestic manufacturers like Midea, Gree, TCL and LMZ started to invest their idle capital in the real-estate and stock markets. Investments of manufacturing capital in both the real estate and stock markets have increased fluid capital and pushed up the value of both markets. Booms in both markets have in turn guaranteed investment returns of manufacturing capital, which further increased the stock market valuations of manufacturing capital. Such a cycle has created interest chains between listed manufacturers, the stock market and the real-estate market. Along with the ups and downs of the stock and real-estate markets, manufacturing capital now faces a dilemma: to escape or to persist? Where should it escape? When can the markets be profitable again? Just like the classic Shakespearean question: to be or not to be, that is the question.

Capital and Labor Allocation Structure and China's Economic Growth

Using sector-specific growth accounting method, this paper investigates the growth effect of inter-industry allocation of capital and labor in China. This paper has found that existing investment data are classified according to investment entities rather than user entities and directly using such data for the measurement of capital inventory of various sectors will seriously overestimate the capital inventory of tertiary industry and lead to distorted conclusions of "structural burden" of capital allocation and its serious violation of the principle of efficiency. By excluding real estate sector, this paper has found that after the 1990 s, inter-industry capital allocation had been generally consistent with the principle of efficiency and the effect of capital allocation structure is not significant. Our estimates also found that the growth effect arising from the inter-industry allocation of labor since reform and opening up averages 0.63 percentage points, which is significantly positively correlated with residual economic growth rate and residual TFP and demonstrates a decade-long "reform cycle." According to the comparative study on the effect of labor allocation structure of 37 other countries and regions, by 2017, the effect of China's labor allocation structure will continue to remain in a relatively high stage; between 2017 and 2023, structural effect will significantly diminish and deceleration pressure will rise swiftly; after 2030, the effect of labor allocation structure will linger in a low level stage, when economy is likely to enter into a stage of low growth rate. These findings will help us better assess future economic growth tendencies.

China＇s Capital Stock Series by Region and Sector

The lack of capital stock statistics for empirical research of the Chinese economy has for a long time been one of the major impediments in the profession. Professor Gregory Chow is one of the pioneers who attempted to deal with this matter. His seminal paper on China＇s capital formation and economic growth was published in 1993 （Chow, 1993）. Since then many authors have estimated their own capital stock data series. However, most authors have focused on investigations at the national level and their findings are not without controversies. In particular, few studies have provided estimates of capital stock for China＇s regional economies. This paper adds to the existing literature in several ways. First, it presents a critical review of the methods and findings in the existing literature. Second, it proposes an alternative approach to estimate China＇s capital stock series by region as well as across three economic sectors （agriculture, industry and services）. Finally, preliminary analyses of the derived capital stock statistics are conducted to examine growth, disparity and convergence in China＇s regional economies.

RESEARCH ON A DYNAMICAL MACRO ECONOMIC MODEL BASED ON SIDRAUSKI MODEL

This paper formulates a kind of dynamical macro economic model based on Sidrauski's work,then presents the sufficient and necessary conditions of the stability of model at equilibrium states,and shows some results for special production functions.

Estate Tax Reforms in Taiwan： A Simulation Approach

This study uses the new classical Ramsey growth model to analyze the impacts of lowered estate tax rates in Taiwan. Simulation results indicate a decrease in capital stock and economic growth when post-adjusted estate tax rate falls below 28.22%, which resembles the optimal estate tax rate to keep capital stock unchanged. The results also show that estate tax rate cuts have caused changes in relative prices, resulting in excess burden （EB）. The implication of our simulation results is that Taiwan＇s current estate tax rate cut to 10% will not be able to increase capital stock and promote economic growth.

The Difference of Capital Input and Productivity in Service Industries: Based on Four Stages Bootstrap-DEA Model

Based on the concept of productive capital stock, this paper estimated capital input by three asset types of China’s 36 service industries in 2003–2015, and compared with the results of wealth capital stock. This study found that the wealth capital stock method underestimates the actual capital input in each sector in varying degrees, and it may interference the accuracy of productivity evaluation in sectors. According to the new estimation results of capital input, this paper further applied four stages bootstrap-DEA method to estimate industrial productivity, and calculated its confidence intervals. This study found that, the years of education and the average wage have a significant positive impact on the productivity of service industries; the productive services have a short board effect in the whole service industry.

Comparative Analysis of Capital Productivity in China’s High-Tech Industries

While labor productivityis a topicof constant debate and hasbeen studied extensively, far less attention has been devoted to the question of capital productivity. Productive use of physical capital is an important source of economic growth and investment return. This paper presents a comparative study of capital productivity in China’s high-tech industry. Using a version of theperpetualinventory method (PIM), new estimates have been madeof the physical capital stock by sector. Capital productivity in China’s high-tech industry is higherthan intotalmanufacturing,butthegapbetweenthem hasbeen shrinking.Comparison with high-tech industries in the US., highlightsthat China’shigh-tech industries could play a moreimportant rolein the growth of manufacturing and the whole economy.

Valuation of Forest Ecosystem Services and Benefit Sharing:A Case Study of Qingdao City, China

The forest ecosystem goods and services and the natural capital stocks that produce them make great contribution to national economy and human welfare both directly and indirectly. This paper evaluates the economic value of natural capital stock and the annual output flow of forest ecosystem goods and services taking Qingdao City and its eight districts as case study. The results of the valuation study showed, that the stock value of forest natural capital of Qingdao was RMB 13.46 billion at the end of 2007. The flow value of annual output of forest ecosystem goods and services of Qingdao was RMB 26.76 billion which amounted to 7.07% of its GDP of 2007. However, the share of forest goods and services actually included in its GDP of 2007, in accordance with the current national accounting system, was only 0.71%. Among the annual flows the value of intangible forest ecosystem services alone accounted for 70.90% of total flows which was 2.44 times the value of forest material goods. These non- market forest benefits mainly contributed to the non-forestry sectors of the economy and to the social groups who did not own and manage the forests. Extensive policy implications were analyzed as per the results of the forest valuation study.