Carbon emission trading system and stock price crash risk of heavily polluting listed companies in China:based on analyst coverage mechanism

This study reveals the inconsistencies between the negative externalities of carbon emissions and the recognition condition of accounting statements.Hence,the study identifies that heavily polluting enterprises in China have severe off-balance sheet carbon reduction risks before implementing the carbon emission trading system(CETS).Through the staggered difference-in-difference(DID)model and the propen-sity score matching-DID model,the impact of CETS on reducing the risk of stock price crashes is examined using data from China’s A-share heavily polluting listed companies from 2007 to 2019.The results of this study are as follows:(1)CETS can significantly reduce the risk of stock price crashes for heavily polluting companies in the pilot areas.Specifically,CETS reduces the skewness(negative conditional skewness)and down-to-up volatility of the firm-specific weekly returns by 8.7%and 7.6%,respectively.(2)Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the impacts of CETS on the risk of stock price crashes are more significant for heavily polluting enterprises with the bear market condition,short-sighted management,and intensive air pollution.(3)Mechanism tests show that CETS can reduce analysts’coverage of heavy polluters,reducing the risk of stock price crashes.This study reveals the role of CETS from the stock price crash risk perspective and helps to clarify the relationship between climatic risk and corporate financial risk.

Investor Attention,Analyst Optimism,and Stock Price Crash Risk

This paper used the A-shares listed companies in China as samples,constructed a comprehensive indicator of investor attention,and conducted an empirical analysis on the correlations among investor attention,analyst optimism,and stock price crash risk.The results indicated that investor attention aggravates the stock price crash risk and has a positive effect on analyst optimism.Meanwhile,the analyst optimism plays a mediating role in the positive correlation between investor attention and stock price crash risk.In addition to that,institutional investor attention also has direct and indirect effects on the crash risk.

Corporate pledgeable asset ownership and stock price crash risk

We investigate how a firm’s corporate pledgeable asset ownership(CPAO)affects the risk of future stock price crashes.Using pledgeable asset ownership and crash risk data for a large sample of U.S.firms,we provide novel empirical evidence that a firm’s risk of a future stock price crash decreases with an increase in its pledgeable assets.Our main findings are valid after conducting various robustness tests.Further channel tests reveal that firms with pledgeable assets increase their collateral value,thereby enhancing corporate transparency and limiting bad news hoarding,resulting in lower stock price crash risk.Overall,the results show that having more pledgeable assets enables easier access to external financing,making it less likely that managers will hoard bad news.

Research on the influence of equity pledge on stock price crash risk:based on financial shock of 2015 stock market crisis

The 2015 Chinese stock market crisis triggered liquidation because of equity pledge so that the leverage effect of the small probability event with severe results got intensive attention from investors.It is found that the effects of equity pledge on stock price crash risk reversed significantly before and after the 2015 stock market crisis.In the mechanism analysis,we further find that the equity pledge influenced the stock price crash risk by longer suspension and greater price fluctuation.The shareholding ratio of institutional investors and information environment also had a significant moderating effect on the influence of equity pledge on stock price crash risk.Alternative interpretation tests excluded the tunnel effect and pressure effect by shareholders and incentive effect by management.This study by analysing empirical data provides evidence on the change of investors’risk recognition,which is caused by financial shock,in the Chinese capital market.

Large Shareholder Tunneling and Risk of Stock Price Crash： Evidence from China

Although several studies have examined the economic consequences of large shareholders＇ tunneling behavior, little attention has been paid to the negative effects of tunneling on firms＇ extreme events. In this article, we investigate how tunneling behavior affects firm-level stock price crashes. The findings indicate that the probability of stock price crashes is positively associated with the extent of tunneling behavior by large shareholders. The positive relationship is more pronounced after the split of share structure reform and is moderated by the firm＇s financial conditions. This study contributes to the emerging body of literature focusing on the economic consequences of tunneling and stock price crashes. The conclusions drawn from the study also provide a frame of reference for investor protection and investment portfolios based on large shareholders＇ tunneling behavior in China.

Does a national industrial policy promote financial market stability?A study based on stock price crash risk

Whether the implementation of a national industrial policy can maintain stability in the financial market is a question of theoretical and practical significance. Using data from China’s non-financial listed firms from 2007 to 2020,we find that a national industrial policy lowers stock price crash risk. We find that the effect of an industrial policy on lowering stock price crash risk is more pronounced in regions with low levels of regional marketization and if firms have high external uncertainty, low total asset turnover, greater earnings management and receive small increments of long-term loans and fewer government subsidies, suggesting that industrial policies lower stock price crash risk by improving firm fundamentals and reducing external uncertainty,agency costs and information asymmetry.

Institutional environment and risk of a stock price crash:evidence from China

Stock price crashes damage China’s macro-financial stability,restrict economic growth,and can lead to huge losses in wealth for investors.Therefore,how to reduce the risk for stock price crashes is an important theoretical and practical issue.This paper mainly studies the effects of the institutional environment that creates risks for stock price crashes.Using China’s non-financial A-share listed companies from 1997 to 2012 as an example,this paper finds that the lower the level of government intervention is,the better the legal environment is,the faster the market process in business area is,then the lower the risks for stock price crashes will be.To solve the endogenous problem between the institutional environment and the risk of a stock price crash,this paper uses the number of seaports and whether the commercial ports or leased territories are opened after the first Opium War in Qing Dynasty as instrumental variables of the institutional environment.We find that the above conclusion is still valid with the method of 2SLS regression.Furthermore,this paper also finds that the government intervention index,the legal environment index,and the market index are negatively related to stock price synchronicity to a significant degree.These conclusions illustrate that the institutional environment is an important factor in the healthy and stable development of the capital market,which has important implications for policy markers or regulators to develop policies to promote the stable development of the stock market,to control market risk of listed companies,and to make investment decisions.

Religion and stock price crash risk:Evidence from China

This paper investigates whether religious traditions influence firm-specific crash risk in China.Using a sample of A-share listed firms from 2003 to 2013,we provide evidence that the more intense the religious environment,the lower the stock price crash risk,implying that religion plays an important role in Chinese corporate governance.Further,we find that(1) religion affects stock price crash risk by reducing earnings management and the management perk problem;(2) different religions have different effects,and Taoism,in particular,is unrelated to crash risk; and(3) the effects of religion are more pronounced with higher quality corporate governance and a stronger legal environment.Religion constrains the management agency problem,thus reducing stock price crash risk in China.Our paper enriches the literature on stock price crash risk and religion,and on new economic geography.

Can executive mobility reduce the stock price crash risk?Evidence from China

The 21st century has witnessed increasing fluctuations in boththe real economy and financial markets around the world. Howto maintain the stability of the capital market has attracted moreserious attention. This paper examines the impact of executivemobility on the stock price crash risk at the company level. Basedon the data of A-share listed companies during 2010–2019, ourempirical results show that executive mobility can effectivelyreduce the stock price crash risk. Furthermore, our research confirms that employee salaries play an intermediary role in theimpact of executive mobility on the stock price crash risk. Thispaper has important implications for companies in emerging markets to optimise the structure of their executive teams.

企业提高ESG表现能够降低股价崩盘风险吗?

本文以2011—2020年沪深A股上市公司为对象,运用企业ESG表现对股价崩盘风险影响的处理效应模型(Treatment effect model)考察ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究结果表明,企业提高ESG表现会抑制股价崩盘风险,符合“价值假说”。影响机制检验表明,媒体与分析师关注度正向调节ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用,发挥“互补效应”;企业提高ESG表现通过缓解委托代理冲突抑制股价崩盘风险。进一步分析发现,ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用仅在非国有企业和所处地区市场化水平较低的企业中成立,且抑制股价崩盘风险是ESG表现提升企业价值的重要路径。上述结论为推动上市公司履行ESG投资责任、完善风险管理机制和实现企业长期价值提供了经验参考。

CEO变更是降低股价崩盘风险的“灵药”吗?——基于财务困境公司的实证研究

结合财务困境的特殊背景,从CEO的角度探讨2007—2020年我国财务困境公司CEO变更对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现,财务困境公司的CEO变更与股价崩盘风险之间呈显著负相关关系。将CEO变更分为正常变更和非正常变更后发现,这种负相关关系在非正常变更的情况下更为显著。机制检验显示,CEO变更能够降低财务困境公司的融资约束和代理成本,进而作用于股价崩盘风险。进一步分析发现,CEO变更和非正常变更对股价崩盘风险的降低效应仅在非国有公司、股权制衡度较高以及外部审计质量较低的情况下存在,而正常变更的降低效应却在国有公司更加显著。

CEO股价崩盘经历与企业创新

基于风险规避假说和感觉适应定律,分析了CEO股价崩盘经历与企业创新之间的关系,并讨论了外部环境(融资约束)和内部资源(组织冗余)对两者关系的调节作用。利用2007-2017年A股上市公司数据,得到以下研究结论:CEO股价崩盘经历抑制了企业创新;在外部环境融资约束程度越高的企业中,CEO股价崩盘经历对企业创新的负向作用越强;在组织内部冗余资源越充裕的企业中,CEO股价崩盘经历对企业创新的负向作用越强。且在进行相关稳健性检验后,上述结论仍然成立。研究结论对于上市公司制定科学合理CEO聘任制度、加强公司治理及推动CEO发起并实施企业创新具有重要参考与启示意义。

基于深度学习的投资者情绪挖掘及其对股价崩盘风险的影响

本文基于网络爬虫挖掘东方财富股吧中个股的发帖文本,搭建卷积神经网络和长短时记忆神经网络特征融合模型(LSTM-CNN),对样本股的股吧发帖文本进行情感识别,构建投资者情绪指标并分析了其对股价崩盘风险的影响效应及其机制。实证发现,当期投资者情绪对下一期股价崩盘风险存在显著的正向影响效应,投资者情绪高涨加剧了未来股价崩盘风险;不同市场环境下,情绪对股价崩盘风险影响具有不对称性,熊市状态下投资者情绪对崩盘风险的正向影响效应更为明显。进一步的异质性分析表明,规模较小、股权集中度较低、卖空限制大、公司所在地市场化水平低的样本公司中投资者情绪对股价崩盘风险的影响更为明显。此外,我们发现股票流动性是投资者情绪影响股价崩盘风险的一个重要的中介变量。研究结论有助于从投资者情绪视角来解释股价崩盘风险的形成机理,丰富了对股价崩盘风险影响因素的认识。

公司ESG表现与防范股票市场风险——基于股价同步性的路径分析

本研究选取2010—2021年我国A股上市公司的面板数据,以固定效应模型深入探讨公司的环境、社会和治理(ESG)表现与股价崩盘风险间的联系;并进一步分析了面对外部风险冲击时,ESG表现出色的公司是否展现出更强的韧性,即能够降低股价崩盘风险。同时,本研究通过股价同步性进行路径分析,以更深层次地理解公司的ESG表现和股价崩盘风险间的逻辑联系。研究表明,当公司的ESG表现更为出色时,其股价崩盘的风险也相应降低;相比于国有企业,拥有更出色ESG表现的非国有企业,在减少股价崩盘这方面的效果更优;在面对公共卫生等突发事件时,ESG表现出色的公司,拥有更强的抵御冲击的能力,股价崩盘的可能性更低。股价同步性在ESG表现和股价崩盘风险间产生了遮掩作用,使ESG表现与股价崩盘风险间的负相关性减弱。本研究为探讨股价崩盘的影响因素提供新的研究视角,帮助理解公司ESG表现在资本市场中的作用,对预防和化解金融风险并促进我国资本市场的进一步发展具有理论和现实意义。

共同机构所有权与股票市场稳定:协同治理还是合谋垄断?

随着我国资本市场的快速发展,机构投资者在同一行业持股多家公司(共同机构所有权)的经济现象日益普遍。从股价崩盘风险视角研究共同机构所有权如何影响股票市场稳定,实证研究发现:共同机构所有权显著加剧股价崩盘风险,支持合谋垄断的观点。异质性检验发现:共同机构所有权对股价崩盘风险的影响在产业资本持股更高和信息环境较差的公司样本中更显著。作用机制检验发现:存在共同机构所有权的公司会显著减少年报中负面语调的披露,并且《中华人民共和国反垄断法》的实施能够显著抑制共同机构所有权对股价崩盘风险的影响,从而验证合谋垄断动机下的坏消息隐藏机制。

基金抱团与股价崩盘——基于行为金融的视角证据

近年来,公募基金抱团现象相当普遍,引起了市场的广泛关注。这种基金抱团现象对资本市场的稳定性会产生怎样的影响?本文以2003—2019年我国A股市场的上市公司为例,研究了公募基金经理的抱团行为对股价崩盘风险的影响。文章发现:(1)基金抱团持股比例的增加会显著提高所在公司的股价崩盘风险;(2)从行为金融角度,基金经理曝光度、分析师关注度与投资者情绪这三个因素都会进一步加剧由基金抱团引起的股价崩盘风险。本文的研究结论对公募基金行业的发展与监管具有一定的启示意义。

国有资本参股能抑制民营企业股价崩盘风险吗?

从稳定资本市场的角度分析国有资本参股对民营企业股价崩盘风险的影响。结果表明,国有资本参股民营企业,可以显著提高其会计信息透明度,降低民营股东的风险承担意愿,进而降低其股价崩盘风险。进一步研究发现,国有股东的参股比例和委派“董监高”的比例越高,民营企业的股价崩盘风险越低。这说明民营企业引入国有资本进行“逆向混改”,可以促使资源朝向更有经营效率的企业流动,提升资本市场的资金配置效率。

信息环境、上市公司增量信息披露与资本市场定价效率——基于MD&A文本相似度的研究

本文基于2007—2020年中国沪深两市A股上市公司的样本,采用文本分析方法,以当期年报中管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)文本与上一期MD&A文本的相似度衡量上市公司增量信息披露水平,深入考察了上市公司增量信息披露与资本市场定价效率的关系。研究发现,公司披露的MD&A文本相似度越高,即增量信息披露越少,公司的股价同步性越高,股价崩盘风险也越大。进一步研究发现,当公司披露的MD&A可读性较低、新媒体运用较少、审计质量较低、媒体报道较少,即内外部信息环境较差时,MD&A文本相似度提高公司股价同步性与股价崩盘风险的作用加剧。本文的研究对如何提高上市公司信息披露水平,改善信息环境,进而促进资本市场的良好运行提供了新的经验证据。

中小投资者法律保护与资本市场稳定——来自投服中心持股行权试点的经验证据

本文基于中证中小投资者服务中心持股行权试点政策的实施,实证检验中小投资者法律保护如何防范公司的股价崩盘风险。研究发现,试点政策实施后试点省份上市公司的股价崩盘风险平均下降15.997%~21.833%,并证实结论是稳健可靠的。异质性分析显示,企业控股股东和中小股东之间的代理冲突越大、企业诉讼风险越高以及所在地区的市场和法治环境越好时,试点政策降低企业股价崩盘风险的作用越明显。进一步的机制检验表明,试点政策通过公司信息披露质量和治理水平两个渠道作用于股价崩盘风险。本研究为完善我国中小投资者法律保护制度,促进资本市场高质量发展,防范系统性金融风险以及维护金融稳定具有一定的实证参考价值。

供应链客户的稳定能够促进金融市场的稳定吗——基于股价崩盘风险视角

利用2010—2020年沪深A股上市公司前五名客户结构动态变化数据,实证检验供应链客户的稳定是否能够抑制企业股价崩盘风险,以考察产品市场上的客户稳定对股票市场乃至整个金融市场体系安全稳定性的影响。研究发现,客户稳定度越高,企业的股价崩盘风险越低;异质性检验结果显示,在外部监督力量弱、客户集中度高、业务复杂度高以及客户地理距离近的企业中,客户稳定度对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用更强;机制分析表明,客户稳定度影响企业股价崩盘风险的两条作用路径分别是降低经营风险和提高信息披露质量。建议有关部门继续确保产业链供应链稳定,企业管理层积极维护与客户之间的稳定业务关系并引入大客户参与公司治理,投资者充分关注上市公司客户结构动态变化情况及其带来的影响。