Extreme storm tide usually causes flooding of low-lying land in a coastal city. Hence, developing an efficient and accurate forecasting model for issuing a timely warning is important. In this study, an adaptive Kalma...Extreme storm tide usually causes flooding of low-lying land in a coastal city. Hence, developing an efficient and accurate forecasting model for issuing a timely warning is important. In this study, an adaptive Kalman filter-based storm tide forecasting model was proposed and applied to the inner Harbor of Macau. The model is a dynamic linear regression model with the harmonic tidal prediction, wind speed, wind direction and atmospheric pressure as its input parameters. With persistence forecast of weather assumed during the prediction period, the model was tested with 40 cases of storm tide induced by tropical cyclones in Macau between 2005 and 2012. Success was found for forecasts with lead times up to 3 hours. The proposed adaptive model is considered a practical tool for storm tide forecast in small coastal cities.展开更多
The southern coast of the Gulf of Maine in the United States is prone to flooding caused by nor＇easters. A state-of-the-art fully-coupled model, the Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） model with unstructured grids a...The southern coast of the Gulf of Maine in the United States is prone to flooding caused by nor＇easters. A state-of-the-art fully-coupled model, the Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） model with unstructured grids and the ADvanced CIRCulation （ADCIRC） model, was used to study the hydrodynamic response in the Gulf of Maine during the Patriot＇s Day storm of 2007, a notable example of nor＇easters in this area. The model predictions agree well with the observed tide-surges and waves during this storm event. Waves and circulation in the Gulf of Maine were analyzed. The Georges Bank plays an important role in dissipating wave energy through the bottom friction when waves propagate over the bank from offshore to the inner gulf due to its shallow bathymetry. Wave energy dissipation results in decreasing significant wave height （SWH） in the cross-bank direction and wave radiation stress gradient, which in turn induces changes in currents. While the tidal currents are dominant over the Georges Bank and in the Bay of Fundy, the residual currents generated by the meteorological forcing and waves are significant over the Georges Bank and in the coastal area and can reach 0.3 m/s and 0.2 m/s, respectively. In the vicinity of the coast, the longshore current generated by the surface wind stress and wave radiation stress acting parallel to the coastline is inversely proportional to the water depth and will eventually be limited by the bottom friction. The storm surge level reaches 0.8 m along the western periphery of the Gulf of Maine while the wave set-up due to radiation stress variation reaches 0.2 m. Therefore, it is significant to coastal flooding.展开更多
Ocean surface waves are strongly forced by high wind conditions associated with winter storms in the Sea of Japan. They are also modulated by tides and storm surges. The effects of the variability in surface wind forc...Ocean surface waves are strongly forced by high wind conditions associated with winter storms in the Sea of Japan. They are also modulated by tides and storm surges. The effects of the variability in surface wind forcing, tides and storm surges on the waves are investigated using a wave model, a high-resolution atmospheric mesoscale model and a hydrodynamic ocean circulation model. Five month-long wave model simulations are inducted to examine the sensitivity of ocean waves to various wind forcing fields, tides and storm surges during January 1997. Compared with observed mean wave parameters, results indicate that the high frequency variability in the surface wind filed has very great effect on wave simulation. Tides and storm surges have a significant impact on the waves in nearshores of the Tsushima-kaihyS, but not for other regions in the Sea of Japan. High spatial and temporal resolution and good quality surface wind products will be crucial for the prediction of surface waves in the JES and other marginal seas, especially near the coastal regions.展开更多
Sea bottom stress is conventionally assumed to be directly proportional to the square of the verticallyaveraged velocity,and the drag coefficient to be dependent on the speed and direction of the wind on the sea surfa...Sea bottom stress is conventionally assumed to be directly proportional to the square of the verticallyaveraged velocity,and the drag coefficient to be dependent on the speed and direction of the wind on the sea surface,the depth and dimension of the sea,the period of the tide and so on. In this paper a three-dimensional numerical model is used to discuss the relation the dragcoefficient and the above-mentioned factors.It can be shown from calculation that the relation, is valid,that the drag coefficient is a constant in a major part of a sea as thought conventionally,andthat there is a small area near the coast where the drag coefficient is far greater.We call it singular area. A number of conclusions on the relation between the drag coefficient and the speed and direction ofthe wind,the sea depth and so on,were obtained.展开更多
This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） usi...This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） using two different inputs from weather models （RDAPS （Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System） and KWRF （Korea Weather and Research Forecasting）） during two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA （Korea Meteorological Administration）. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.展开更多
A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai regi...A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR’s effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT’s: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone’s path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region.展开更多
A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm su...A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm surge during 5 typhoons, including two super typhoons, that landed in the Province. In the model, the atmospheric forcing fields are calculated with parametric wind and pressure models. The computational results, with average computed errors of 13 cm for the high astronomical tide levels and 20 cm for the high storm-tide levels, show that the model yields good simulations. Typhoon No. 5612, the most intense to land in China since 1949, is taken as the typical super typhoon for the de- sign of 5 typhoon routes, each landing at a different location along the coast. The possible extreme storm-tide levels along the coast are calculated by the model under the conditions of the 5 designed typhoon routes when they coincide with the spring tide. Results are compared with the high storm-tide levels due to the increase of the central atmospheric pressure at the base of a typical super typhoon, the change of tidal type, and the behavior of a Saomai-type typhoon. The results have practical significance for forecasting and minimization of damage during super typhoons.展开更多
An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan （typhoon Vera （5915））, which is the strongest typhoon that has struck J...An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan （typhoon Vera （5915））, which is the strongest typhoon that has struck Japan and caused incalculable damage. An integrally coupled tide-surge-wave model using identical and homogeneous meshes in an unstructured grid system was used to correctly resolve the physics of wave-circulation interaction in both models. All model components were validated independently. The storm surge and wave properties such as the surge height, the significant wave height, wave period and direction were reproduced reasonably under the meteorological forcing, which was reprocessed to be close to the observations. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the prediction of the storm surge and waves and the usual barotropic forecast.展开更多
Because of the special topography and large tidal range in the South Yellow Sea,the dynamic process of tide and storm surge is very complicated.The shallow water circulation model Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC)was used ...Because of the special topography and large tidal range in the South Yellow Sea,the dynamic process of tide and storm surge is very complicated.The shallow water circulation model Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC)was used to simulate the storm surge process during typhoon Winnie,Prapiroon,and Damrey,which represents three types of tracks attacking the South Yellow Sea,which are,moving northward after landing,no landing but active in offshore areas,and landing straightly to the coastline.Numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of tidal phase on the tide-surge interaction as well as storm surge.The results show that the peak surge caused by Winnie and Prapiroon occurs 2-5 h before the high tide and its occurring time relative to high tide has little change with tidal phase variations.On the contrary,under the action of Damrey,the occurring time of the peak surge relative to high tide varies with tidal phase.The variation of tide-surge interaction is about 0.06-0.37 m,and the amplitude variations of interaction are smooth when tidal phase changes for Typhoon Winnie and Prapiroon.While the interaction is about 0.07-0.69 m,and great differences exists among the stations for Typhoon Damrey.It can be concluded that the tide-surge interaction of the former is dominated by the tidal phase modulation,and the time of surge peak is insensitive to the tidal phase variation.While the interaction of the latter is dominated by storm surge modulation due to the water depth varying with tide,the time of surge peak is significantly affected by tidal phase.Therefore,influence of tidal phase on storm surge is related to typhoon tracks which may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.展开更多
Storm surge along the China＇s Zhe-Min coast is addressed using the tightly coupled surge model ofADCIRC＋SWAN. In this study, we primarily focus on the effects of surge-tide interaction and waveset-up/set-down. And t...Storm surge along the China＇s Zhe-Min coast is addressed using the tightly coupled surge model ofADCIRC＋SWAN. In this study, we primarily focus on the effects of surge-tide interaction and waveset-up/set-down. And the influences of intensity and landing moment of tropical cyclone （TC） arealso presented. The results show that： water elevation without considering tide-surge interactiontends to be underestimated/overestimated when TC lands during astronomical low/high tide;tide-surge coupling effect is more pronounced north of TC track （more than 0.7 m in our cases）;irrelevant to TC＇s intensity, wave set-up south of TC track is negligible because the depth-relatedwave breaking doesn＇t occur in water body blown towards open seas.展开更多
基金supported by the Research Committee (Grant No. MYRG2014-00038-FST) of the University of Macaothe Science and Technology Development Fund (Grant No. 079/2013/A3) of the Macao SAR Government
文摘Extreme storm tide usually causes flooding of low-lying land in a coastal city. Hence, developing an efficient and accurate forecasting model for issuing a timely warning is important. In this study, an adaptive Kalman filter-based storm tide forecasting model was proposed and applied to the inner Harbor of Macau. The model is a dynamic linear regression model with the harmonic tidal prediction, wind speed, wind direction and atmospheric pressure as its input parameters. With persistence forecast of weather assumed during the prediction period, the model was tested with 40 cases of storm tide induced by tropical cyclones in Macau between 2005 and 2012. Success was found for forecasts with lead times up to 3 hours. The proposed adaptive model is considered a practical tool for storm tide forecast in small coastal cities.
基金supported by the project funded by the Maine Sea Grant and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(Grant No.NA10OAR4170072)the Ensemble Estimation of Flood Risk in a Changing Climate(EFRa CC)project funded by the British Council under its Global Innovation Initiative
文摘The southern coast of the Gulf of Maine in the United States is prone to flooding caused by nor＇easters. A state-of-the-art fully-coupled model, the Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） model with unstructured grids and the ADvanced CIRCulation （ADCIRC） model, was used to study the hydrodynamic response in the Gulf of Maine during the Patriot＇s Day storm of 2007, a notable example of nor＇easters in this area. The model predictions agree well with the observed tide-surges and waves during this storm event. Waves and circulation in the Gulf of Maine were analyzed. The Georges Bank plays an important role in dissipating wave energy through the bottom friction when waves propagate over the bank from offshore to the inner gulf due to its shallow bathymetry. Wave energy dissipation results in decreasing significant wave height （SWH） in the cross-bank direction and wave radiation stress gradient, which in turn induces changes in currents. While the tidal currents are dominant over the Georges Bank and in the Bay of Fundy, the residual currents generated by the meteorological forcing and waves are significant over the Georges Bank and in the coastal area and can reach 0.3 m/s and 0.2 m/s, respectively. In the vicinity of the coast, the longshore current generated by the surface wind stress and wave radiation stress acting parallel to the coastline is inversely proportional to the water depth and will eventually be limited by the bottom friction. The storm surge level reaches 0.8 m along the western periphery of the Gulf of Maine while the wave set-up due to radiation stress variation reaches 0.2 m. Therefore, it is significant to coastal flooding.
基金This research was supported by a grant from the 0ffice of Naval Research of United States under the Sea of Japan Departmental Research Initiatite of N00014-98-1-0236a project from the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.40506006.
文摘Ocean surface waves are strongly forced by high wind conditions associated with winter storms in the Sea of Japan. They are also modulated by tides and storm surges. The effects of the variability in surface wind forcing, tides and storm surges on the waves are investigated using a wave model, a high-resolution atmospheric mesoscale model and a hydrodynamic ocean circulation model. Five month-long wave model simulations are inducted to examine the sensitivity of ocean waves to various wind forcing fields, tides and storm surges during January 1997. Compared with observed mean wave parameters, results indicate that the high frequency variability in the surface wind filed has very great effect on wave simulation. Tides and storm surges have a significant impact on the waves in nearshores of the Tsushima-kaihyS, but not for other regions in the Sea of Japan. High spatial and temporal resolution and good quality surface wind products will be crucial for the prediction of surface waves in the JES and other marginal seas, especially near the coastal regions.
文摘Sea bottom stress is conventionally assumed to be directly proportional to the square of the verticallyaveraged velocity,and the drag coefficient to be dependent on the speed and direction of the wind on the sea surface,the depth and dimension of the sea,the period of the tide and so on. In this paper a three-dimensional numerical model is used to discuss the relation the dragcoefficient and the above-mentioned factors.It can be shown from calculation that the relation, is valid,that the drag coefficient is a constant in a major part of a sea as thought conventionally,andthat there is a small area near the coast where the drag coefficient is far greater.We call it singular area. A number of conclusions on the relation between the drag coefficient and the speed and direction ofthe wind,the sea depth and so on,were obtained.
文摘This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） using two different inputs from weather models （RDAPS （Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System） and KWRF （Korea Weather and Research Forecasting）） during two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA （Korea Meteorological Administration）. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.
文摘A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR’s effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT’s: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone’s path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region.
基金This Paper is supported by Zhejiang Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project (Grant No2006F12013)
文摘A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm surge during 5 typhoons, including two super typhoons, that landed in the Province. In the model, the atmospheric forcing fields are calculated with parametric wind and pressure models. The computational results, with average computed errors of 13 cm for the high astronomical tide levels and 20 cm for the high storm-tide levels, show that the model yields good simulations. Typhoon No. 5612, the most intense to land in China since 1949, is taken as the typical super typhoon for the de- sign of 5 typhoon routes, each landing at a different location along the coast. The possible extreme storm-tide levels along the coast are calculated by the model under the conditions of the 5 designed typhoon routes when they coincide with the spring tide. Results are compared with the high storm-tide levels due to the increase of the central atmospheric pressure at the base of a typical super typhoon, the change of tidal type, and the behavior of a Saomai-type typhoon. The results have practical significance for forecasting and minimization of damage during super typhoons.
基金supported by the China-Korea Cooperative Research Project funded by CKJORCa major project titled the development of the marine environmental impact prediction system funded by KIOSTsupported by the project of KISTI for the development of HPC-based management system against national-scale disaster
文摘An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan （typhoon Vera （5915））, which is the strongest typhoon that has struck Japan and caused incalculable damage. An integrally coupled tide-surge-wave model using identical and homogeneous meshes in an unstructured grid system was used to correctly resolve the physics of wave-circulation interaction in both models. All model components were validated independently. The storm surge and wave properties such as the surge height, the significant wave height, wave period and direction were reproduced reasonably under the meteorological forcing, which was reprocessed to be close to the observations. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the prediction of the storm surge and waves and the usual barotropic forecast.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC1402000)
文摘Because of the special topography and large tidal range in the South Yellow Sea,the dynamic process of tide and storm surge is very complicated.The shallow water circulation model Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC)was used to simulate the storm surge process during typhoon Winnie,Prapiroon,and Damrey,which represents three types of tracks attacking the South Yellow Sea,which are,moving northward after landing,no landing but active in offshore areas,and landing straightly to the coastline.Numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of tidal phase on the tide-surge interaction as well as storm surge.The results show that the peak surge caused by Winnie and Prapiroon occurs 2-5 h before the high tide and its occurring time relative to high tide has little change with tidal phase variations.On the contrary,under the action of Damrey,the occurring time of the peak surge relative to high tide varies with tidal phase.The variation of tide-surge interaction is about 0.06-0.37 m,and the amplitude variations of interaction are smooth when tidal phase changes for Typhoon Winnie and Prapiroon.While the interaction is about 0.07-0.69 m,and great differences exists among the stations for Typhoon Damrey.It can be concluded that the tide-surge interaction of the former is dominated by the tidal phase modulation,and the time of surge peak is insensitive to the tidal phase variation.While the interaction of the latter is dominated by storm surge modulation due to the water depth varying with tide,the time of surge peak is significantly affected by tidal phase.Therefore,influence of tidal phase on storm surge is related to typhoon tracks which may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.
基金the support of National Natural Science Foundation of China (11772339)the Strategic Priority Research Programs (Category B) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB22040203)
文摘Storm surge along the China＇s Zhe-Min coast is addressed using the tightly coupled surge model ofADCIRC＋SWAN. In this study, we primarily focus on the effects of surge-tide interaction and waveset-up/set-down. And the influences of intensity and landing moment of tropical cyclone （TC） arealso presented. The results show that： water elevation without considering tide-surge interactiontends to be underestimated/overestimated when TC lands during astronomical low/high tide;tide-surge coupling effect is more pronounced north of TC track （more than 0.7 m in our cases）;irrelevant to TC＇s intensity, wave set-up south of TC track is negligible because the depth-relatedwave breaking doesn＇t occur in water body blown towards open seas.
