COMPARISON OF THE ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS AND THE GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION

A comparison of two decision analysis tools for the analysis of strategic conflicts, the Analytic Network Process （ANP） and the graph model for conflict resolution, is carried out by applying them to the China-US TV dumping conflict. Firstly, the graph model is introduced along with practical procedures for modeling and analyzing conflicts using the decision support software, GMCR Ⅱ. Next, ANP is explained, emphasizing structural features and procedures for synthesizing priorities. Then a framework for employing ANP to analyze strategic conflicts is designed and used to compare ANP to the graph model. The case study of the China-US TV dumping conflict provides a basis for the graph model and ANP to be compared; different features of the approaches are highlighted. The study shows that because of different theoretical backgrounds, ANP and the graph model for conflict analysis both provide useful information which can be combined to furnish a better understanding of a strategic conflict.

A multi-objective multi-memetic algorithm for network-wide conflict-free 4D flight trajectories planning

Under the demand of strategic air traffic flow management and the concept of trajectory based operations（TBO）,the network-wide 4D flight trajectories planning（N4DFTP） problem has been investigated with the purpose of safely and efficiently allocating 4D trajectories（4DTs）（3D position and time） for all the flights in the whole airway network.Considering that the introduction of large-scale 4DTs inevitably increases the problem complexity,an efficient model for strategiclevel conflict management is developed in this paper.Specifically,a bi-objective N4 DFTP problem that aims to minimize both potential conflicts and the trajectory cost is formulated.In consideration of the large-scale,high-complexity,and multi-objective characteristics of the N4DFTP problem,a multi-objective multi-memetic algorithm（MOMMA） that incorporates an evolutionary global search framework together with three problem-specific local search operators is implemented.It is capable of rapidly and effectively allocating 4DTs via rerouting,target time controlling,and flight level changing.Additionally,to balance the ability of exploitation and exploration of the algorithm,a special hybridization scheme is adopted for the integration of local and global search.Empirical studies using real air traffic data in China with different network complexities show that the proposed MOMMA is effective to solve the N4 DFTP problem.The solutions achieved are competitive for elaborate decision support under a TBO environment.

NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY:A DRAMA THEORETIC APPROACH

While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to nuclear proliferation and disarmament issues, traditional decision analysis assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A drama theoretic approach is used to overcome these limiting assumptions： Drama Theory （DT） II allows global leaders and national security policy makers to engage in a rational-emotional process of re-defining international security negotiations （and their ＂positions＂ in them） Until agreement on a satisfactory nuclear non-proliferation resolution is reached. The 2009 nuclear energy negotiations between Iran and world powers are modeled with DT II and the Confrontation ManagerTM Decision Support System. By adjusting strategy and deriving transformative security policy, it is shown how international security can be achieved by promoting nuclear non-proliferation and resolving strategic conflict.