An analogy-based method for strong convection forecasts in China using GFS forecast data

This paper describes an analogue-based method for producing strong convection forecasts with conventional outputs from numerical models.The method takes advantage of the good performance of numerical models in predicting synoptic-scale weather situations.It calculates the convective parameters as predictors to detect the favorable-occurrence environment of strong convections.Times in the past when the forecast parameters are most similar to those forecast at the current time are identified by searching a large historical numerical dataset.The observed strong convection situations corresponding to those most similar times are then used to form strong convection forecasts for the current time.The method is applied as a postprocess of the NCEP Global Forecast System(GFS)model.The historical dataset in which the analogous situations are sought comprises two years of summer(June–September)GFS 6-to 48-h forecasts.The strong convection forecast is then generated every 6 h over most regions of China,provided the availability of strong convection observations.The results show that the method performs well in predicting strong convections in different regions of China.Through comparison with another postprocessing strong convection forecast method,it is shown that the convective-parameter threshold problem can be solved by employing the analogy method,which considers the local historical conditions of strong convection occurrence.

Two-dimensional simulation of frost formation on the NACA0012 airfoil under strong convection by using the p-VOF method

A newly developed frosting simulation method,p-VOF method,is applied to simulate the dynamic frost formation on the NACA0012 airfoil under strong convection.The p-VOF method is a pseudo VOF method of the multiphase flow simulation with phase change.By solving a simplified mass conservation equation explicitly instead of the original volume fraction equations in CFD software,the efficiency and robustness of calculation are greatly improved.This progress makes it possible to predict a long-time frost formation.The p-VOF method was successfully applied to the simulation of dynamic frosting on the two-dimensional NACA0012 airfoil under strong convection conditions with constant frost physical properties.The simulation result shows that the average thickness of the frost layer increases,and the frost bulges and flow separation appear earlier,when the airfoil surface temperature decreases or the air humidity increases.The frost bulges and flow separation appear earlier,when the air velocity is faster,the growth rate of the frost layer at the early stage is greater,but the final frost layer is thinner.

Analysis of a Large-Scale Strong Convective Weather under a Weak Water Vapor Condition in Shanxi, China in Spring

This article uses NCEP 1° × 1° grid point reanalysis data, conventional meteorological observation data, FY2G satellite TBB data, radar combined reflectivity data, ground-encrypted automatic station observation data, etc., through the synoptic diagnostic analysis method for a comprehensive analysis of a large-scale underreporting of a strong convective weather process under weak water vapor conditions on the 13th April 2017. The results show that the severe convective weather process is affected by the short-wave disturbance in the northwesterly airflow, triggered by the uplift of the westerly trough, the mid-low shear line and the mesoscale front of the boundary layer in the dry northwest. The jet stream is also an important system for the development of this strong convective weather. In the case of weak water vapor and energy conditions, if there is strong dynamic uplift, vertical wind shear and large temperature differences, strong convection can still occur;the convection occurrence area corresponds to the high potential vorticity abnormal area. The movement speed and direction of the cloud cluster are also consistent with the movement of the high potential vorticity anomaly area;the potential vorticity anomaly will cause the cyclonic circulation to increase, and the upward movement will also increase, which is conducive to the development of strong convective weather. According to the position of the dew point front in the β mesoscale, the ground cold pool corresponds to the small value area of the convective cloud cluster TBB. The front of the cold pool is accompanied by a mesoscale ground convergence line, and the uplift is strengthened, which is conducive to the development and forward movement of thunderstorms;the outflow of the cold pool is guided by 700 hPa. When the wind direction is the same, the movement speed will increase, and the stronger the outflow, the faster the movement speed.

A New Algorithm of Rain Type Classification for GPM Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar in Summer Tibetan Plateau

In this study, a new rain type classification algorithm for the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar(DPR) suitable over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) was proposed by analyzing Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) DPR Level-2 data in summer from 2014 to 2020. It was found that the DPR rain type classification algorithm(simply called DPR algorithm) has mis-identification problems in two aspects in summer TP. In the new algorithm of rain type classification in summer TP,four rain types are classified by using new thresholds, such as the maximum reflectivity factor, the difference between the maximum reflectivity factor and the background maximum reflectivity factor, and the echo top height. In the threshold of the maximum reflectivity factors, 30 d BZ and 18 d BZ are both thresholds to separate strong convective precipitation, weak convective precipitation and weak precipitation. The results illustrate obvious differences of radar reflectivity factor and vertical velocity among the three rain types in summer TP, such as the reflectivity factor of most strong convective precipitation distributes from 15 d BZ to near 35 d BZ from 4 km to 13 km, and increases almost linearly with the decrease in height. For most weak convective precipitation, the reflectivity factor distributes from 15 d BZ to 28 d BZ with the height from 4 km to 9 km. For weak precipitation, the reflectivity factor mainly distributes in range of 15–25 d BZ with height within 4–10 km. It is also shows that weak precipitation is the dominant rain type in summer TP, accounting for 40%–80%,followed by weak convective precipitation(25%–40%), and strong convective precipitation has the least proportion(less than 30%).

Genetic Analysis of a Strong Convective Weather Process in Guannan County

To provide references for the forecast of strong convective weather process by county-level stations, through synoptic analysis, diagnostic analysis of physical quantities, analysis of satellite cloud pictures and new generation of weather radar data, the main reasons for the formation of strong convective weather process in Guannan County on May 16, 2012 was analysed based on the weather situation and physical quantities. The results show that this strong convective weather process occurred under conditions of inversion layer, upper dry and low-level wet climate, high- level convergence and low-level divergence, and unstable stratification, and surface cold front was the major factor triggering this strong convection. Besides, radar echo played an important role in the short-term impending forecast during the development of the weather. The occurrence of a strong convective weather is related to cold air activity, so we should strengthen the monitoring of cold air activity, so as to improve our waming lev- el and service capability to forecast strong convective weather.

Analysis on a Gale Hail Strong Convective Weather in Weifang Region of Shandong

To better study occurrence and development mechanism and characteris-tics of strong convective weather in Weifang, reduce the harm brought by disastrous weather, such as gale and hail, extract available forecast index for future strong convective weather forecast work in spring and summer, and improve forecast ac-curacy, diagnostic analysis of the strong convective weather process was conducted. By using conventional weather data for profile and sounding analysis, and combining short-term numerical forecast products for cause analysis, such as radar and satel-lite cloud chart, occurrence characteristics and type of such strong convective weather were obtained. Results showed that the important reason of the strong convective weather occurrence was high-altitude trough split out in eastward move-ment process of northeast cold vortex. In the afternoon of 2nd when hail occurred, temperature rise was obvious at low layer, and energy was sufficient. High-altitude trough with forward tilting structure made that dry cold air at high layer overlapped on warm wet air at lower layer, thereby causing stable stratification formation and triggering the occurrence of strong convective weather.

Construction of the Forecast System of Classified Severe Convection Weather in Qinghai Province Based on Ingredients-based Method

Based on the data of the cases of severe convection weather such as hail,thunderstorm(thunderstorm gale)and short-time heavy precipitation in recent 10 years,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of different types of severe convection weather were analyzed.The results show that the frequency of severe convection weather tended to increase,of which short-time heavy precipitation and thunderstorm weather rose,and hail and thunderstorm gale weather decreased.Severe convection weather began to extend in late spring and early autumn.Typical cases were selected to analyze the evolution mechanism,and the conceptual models of severe convective weather caused by cold advection forcing,warm advection forcing and baroclinic frontogenesis were obtained.The key predictors for the potential prediction of severe convection weather were proposed,such as CAPE(convective available potential energy)for hail weather,UH index(maximum ascending helicity)for thunderstorm gale and PWV(precipitable water vapor)for short-time heavy precipitation.ERA5 data were used to get the forecast threshold of the key factor of classified severe convection weather,and it was verified that the threshold was available.Meanwhile,the causes of the error of failure cases were analyzed.For instance,the larger deviation of CAPE was caused by the 2 m deviation of temperature.Supplementary correction method and threshold were given to provide a reference for the objective forecast and early warning of severe convection weather.

Analysis on Severe Convection Process in Shunde during May 10-11,2020

Using meteorological observation data,Doppler radar,and NCEP 0.25°×0.25°of 6 h reanalysis data,comparative analysis of circulation background,trigger conditions,physical quantity characteristics,and radar image characteristics of two severe convection weather processes in Shunde District during May 10-11,2020 was conducted,and similarities and differences of severe convection processes were explored.The results showed that the two severe convection processes occurred in the situation that there lacked high-altitude trough moving eastward,but low altitude was accompanied by shear line,which was triggered under conditional thermal instability.Vertical velocity profile displayed that severe convection was accompanied by strong convergence and upward movement,and K index and water vapor flux divergence had good corresponding relationship with the occurrence and extinction of severe convection weather in time.The occurrence of strong wind area had certain indicative significance for the prediction of severe convection weather.

Rational Identification of Lightning Derivative Disasters by Strong Convective Weather Monitoring Data in Southern China——A Case Study in Guangzhou Development Region

Analytic method and identification direction for rational identification of lightning derivative disasters by strong convective weather monitoring data in southern China were introduced. Taking identification cases of lightning disaster in Guangzhou Development Region as the background,according to the characteristics in the region that large high-precision enterprises were more,lightning derivative disasters occurred frequently in thunderstorm season,and the actual situation that time of the affected enterprise applying for lightning disaster scene identification lagged,combining Technical Specifications of Lightning Disaster Investigation（ QX / T103-2009）,qualitative analysis method of lightning derivative disaster was put forward under the weather condition of strong convection in southern China by using weather monitoring data（ Doppler sounding radar data,lightning positioning monitoring data,atmospheric electric field data,rainfall data,wind direction and force）,and was optimized by technical means（ ＂ metallographic method＂ and ＂ remanence law＂）. The research could put forward efficient and convenient analytical thinking and method for lightning derivative disaster,and further optimize accuracy and credibility of lightning disaster investigation.

A Study of Structure and Mechanism of a Meso-beta-scale Convective Vortex and Associated Heavy Rainfall in the Dabie Mountain Area Part I: Diagnostic Analysis of the Structure

An analysis was conducted on the evolutional process of a mesoscale convective vortex （MCV） and associated heavy rainfall in the Dabie Mountain area on 21-22 June 2008,as well as their structural characteristics in different stages,by using the mesoscale reanalysis data with 3 km and 1 h resolution generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System （LAPS） in the Southern China Heavy Rainfall Experiment.The results showed that the latent heat released by convection in the midtroposphere was the main energy source for the development of a low-level vortex.There was a positive feedback interaction between the convection and the vortex,and the evolution of the MCV was closely related to the strength of the positive interaction.The most typical characteristics of the thermal structure in different stages were that,there was a relatively thin diabatic heating layer in the midtroposphere in the formative stage;the thickness of diabatic heating layer significantly increased in the mature stage;and it almost disappeared in the decay stage.The characteristics of the dynamic structure were that,in the formative stage,there was no anticyclonic circulation at the high level;in the mature stage,an anticyclonic circulation with strong divergence was formed at the high level;in the decay stage,the anticyclonic circulation was damaged and the high-level atmosphere was in a disordered state of turbulence.Finally,the structural schematics of the MCV in the formative and mature stage were established respectively.

Analysis of 2 Severe Convective Weather Processes in the Weather Background of Cold Vortex

In this paper,the analysis of two short periods of strong convection weather occurring in the northern part of Liaoning on August 8,2007 and July 16,2008 is made,which verifies that the two processes are typical severe convective weather processes of cold vortex.They agree on location of occurrence,weather background and the characteristics of radar data.

Analysis on a Severe Convective Weather Process in Summer in Beihai

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a strong convective weather process in Beihai in summer. [Method] By using Micaps conventional data and the single station site information of Beihai, radar data, a strong convective weather process in Beihai City in August, 2010 was analyzed. [Result] 850 and 700 hPa cyclonic low-pressure circulation in the north of Vietnam and Beibu Gulf coast was favorable for the transportation of Bengal Bay southwest airflow, which provided the sufficient water vapor condition for the strong precipitation. The interaction of weak cold air and southeast warm wet airflow was the main cause of the strong rainfall process. The falling zone of strong precipitation related to the water vapor convergence. The maintenance of water vapor flux divergence field in southeast-northwest direction was favorable for the duration of strong precipitation in the south of Guangxi. Before the strong precipitation, the positive and negative vorticity in the high and low levels in Beihai station both abruptly strengthened, which was very favorable for generating the convection. The vertical velocity in the strong precipitation process turned from the positive value at the beginning into the negative value as the height variation. The turning had the indicated and early-warning roles on the generation of strong convective weather. [Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for the strong convective weather forecast in Guangxi coast in summer.

Analysis on Climatic and Synoptic Characteristics of Thunderstorm Gale Weather in Jiangsu

By using observation and sounding data at 68 artificial observatories of Jiangsu Province during 2009- 2013,thunderstorm gale weather and its climatic characteristics in Jiangsu were conducted statistics. The characteristics of some instability indexes and strong convection parameters were analyzed,and environmental parameters of dry and wet thunderstorm gales were contrasted. Results showed that thunderstorm gale in Jiangsu had the characteristics of high occurrence frequency,local feature and stronger intensity. It was mostly accompanied by precipitation,and had obvious seasonal and daily change characteristics. Synoptics analysis showed that temperature-humidity profile characteristics before thunderstorm gale appeared in Jiangsu mainly had four types： bell mouth type,inverted V type,dry unstable type and wet unstable type. Before thunderstorm gale occurred,atmospheric instability was stronger,and some strong convection parameters all had certain instructions. But the forecasts of some thunderstorm gale processes were easy to be missed by only considering CAPE. Environmental condition difference of generating dry and wet thunderstorm gale was that instability of dry thunderstorm gale was stronger than that of wet thunderstorm gale. Before dry thunderstorm gale occurred,environmental temperature at middle-low layer was lower; lapse rate was larger; humidity was small. Before wet thunderstorm gale occurred,environmental temperature was higher; lapse rate was small; humidity was large. At dynamic structure,vertical wind shear at 0- 6 km of dry thunderstorm gale was significantly stronger than that of wet thunderstorm gale.

Analysis on the Meso-scale Characteristics of a Hail Process in Linyi Area

[Objective] The research aimed to study the meso-scale characteristics of a hail process in Linyi area. [Method] By comprehensively using MICAPS conventional observation data, automatic encryption ground station, MM5 model product and Doppler weather radar data, a strong convective hail weather process which happened in Shandong Peninsula and southeast of Shandong on May 30, 2010 was analyzed. The circulation background and physical mechanism of strong convection weather occurrence, the features of meso- and micro-scale systems were discussed. Some occurrence and development rules of such weather were found. [Result] The strong convective weather was mainly affected by the cold vortex and translot. The high-altitude northwest airflow, low-level southwest airflow, dry and cold air at the high layer, warm and wet air at the low layer, forward-tilting trough caused the strong convective weather. The radar echo analysis showed that the radar echo in the process belonged to the typical multi-monomer windstorm echo, and the strong echo zone was in the forefront of echo. When the convection development was the strongest, the echo intensity reached 65 dBz, and the echo top height surpassed 11 km. As the development of windstorm monomer, the big-value zone of vertical liquid water content product had the jumping formation and disappearance. Moreover, there was obvious weak echo zone. The windstorm monomer moved to the southeast direction as the precipitation system. In the right front of monomer moving direction, there was hook echo feature. The evolution characteristics of radial speed field at the different elevation angles before and after the hail weather occurrence were analyzed. It was found that the radial speed field had some premonitory variations before the hail weather occurrence. Doppler radar product was used to improve the initial field of MM5 model, which could improve the forecast effect in the certain degree and the accuracy of short-time forecast and nowcasting. [Conclusion] The research accumulated the experience for the short-term forecast and nowcasting work of strong convective weather in future.

MESOSCALE NONLINEAR GRAVITATIONAL WAVES AND THEIR INTERACTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR FLOW

Interaction equations of two nonlinear gravitational waves in baroclinic atmosphere are presented via multi-scale perturbation method,which can be classified into coupling nonlinear Schrodinger equations.In particular,the interaction course of two nonlinear gravitational waves of basic flow in vertical linear and quadratic shear is illustrated.Numerical calculation displays that wave amplitude enlarges and wave width narrows when two solitary gravitational waves meet and chase;that basic flow with single shear is more beneficial than that with quadratic shear to the interaction of two nonlinear wave packets;and that the interaction of two wave packets makes wave shape change more greatly and energy more dispersive,which contributes to the occurrence of changeable weather.Therefore,one of the probable mechanisms for the appearance of strong convection weather is the interaction between mesoscale nonlinear gravitational waves.