Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes

Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.

Rate of strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models

Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） include generalized linear models as a special case. Under some regularity conditions, the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） is obtained in QLNM. In an important case, this rate is O（n-^1/2（loglogn）^1/2）, which is just the rate of LIL of partial sums for i.i.d variables, and thus cannot be improved anymore.

STRONG SOLUTIONS FOR THE INCOMPRESSIBLE FLUID MODELS OF KORTEWEG TYPE

In this article, we are concerned with the strong solutions for the incompress- ible fluid models of Korteweg type in a bounded domain Ω СR^3. We prove the existence and uniqueness of local strong solutions to the initial boundary value problem. We point out that in this article we allow the existence of initial vacuum provided initial data satisfy a compatibility condition.

Strong ground motion simulation for the 2013 Lushan M_W6.6 earthquake, Sichuan, China, based on the inverted and synthetic slip models

It is well known that quantitative estimation of slip distributions on fault plane is one of the most important issues for earthquake source inversion related to the fault rupture process. The characteristics of slip distribution on the main fault play a fundamental role to control strong ground motion pattern. A large amount of works have also suggested that variable slip models inverted from longer period ground motion recordings are relevant for the prediction of higher frequency ground motions. Zhang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1412-1417, 2013） and Wang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1408-1411,2013） published their source inversions for the fault rupturing process soon after the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake in Sichuan, China. In this study, first, we synthesize two forward source slip models： the value of maximum slip, fault dimension, size, and dimension of major asperities, and comer wave number obtained from Wang＇s model is adopted to constrain the gen- eration of k-2 model and crack model. Next, both inverted and synthetic slip models are employed to simulate the ground motions for the Lushan earthquake based on the stochastic finite-fault method. In addition, for a comparison purpose, a stochastic slip model and another k-2 model （k 2 model II） with 2 times value of comer wave number of the original k-2 model （k 2 model I） are also employed for simulation for Lushan event. The simulated results characterized by Modified Mer- calli Intensity （MMI） show that the source slip models based on the inverted and synthetic slip distributions could capture many basic features associated with the ground motion patterns. Moreover, the simulated MMI distributions reflect the rupture directivity effect and the influence of the shallow velocity structure well. On the other hand, the simulated MMI bystochastic slip model and k 2 model II is apparently higher than observed intensity. By contrast, our simulation results show that the higher frequency ground motion is sensitive to the degree of slip roughness; therefore, we suggest that, for realistic ground- motion simulations due to future earthquake, it is imperative to properly estimate the slip roughness distribution.

Implications for Discovery of Strong Radial Magnetic Field at the Galactic Center—Challenge to Black Hole Models

The black hole model will be excluded by a very strong radial magnetic field near the Galactic Center which has been detected in 2013. Following it, the explosion mechanism, for both supernova and the hot big bang of the Universe, driven by magnetic monopoles is proposed in this paper.

Cosmic Constraints to the wCDM Model from Strong Gravitational Lensing

We study the cosmic constraint to the wCDM （cold dark matter with a constant equation of state w） model via 118 strong gravitational lensing systems which are compiled from SLA CS, BELLS, LSD and SL2S surveys, where the ratio between two angular diameter distances Dobs =DA（Zl, Zs ） / D A （ O, Zs ） is taken as a cosmic observable. To obtain this ratio, we adopt two strong tensing models： one is the singular isothermal sphere model （SIS） and the other one is the power-law density profile （PLP） model. Via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the posterior distribution of the cosmological model parameters space is obtained. The results show that the cosmological model parameters are not sensitive to the parameterized forms of the power-law index γ. Furthermore, the PLP model gives a relatively tighter constraint to the cosmological parameters than that of the SIS model. The predicted value of Ωm = 0.31＋0.44 -0.24 by the SIS model is compatible with that obtained by P1anck2015： Ωm = 0.313 ± 0.013. However, the value of Ωm =0.15＋0.13 -0.11 based on the PLP model is smaller and has 1.25σ tension with that obtained by Planck2015.

Basic Characteristics of Active Structures in Western Sichuan and Its Vicinity and Strong Earthquake Recurrence Model

Western Sichuan and its vicinity are located in the juncture of three big active blocks, namely, the Chuandian （Sichuan and Yunnan）, the Bayan Har and the South China blocks, on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang（Tibet） Plateau. Many groups of active faults that are capable of generating earthquakes are developed there. Because there exist lateral secondary active faults, the Chuandian block can be further divided into the central Yumlan and northwestern Sichuan sub-blocks; while the Longmenshan sub-block can be divided on the east end of the Bayan Har block. Joint exploration of deep crustal structure shows that there exist low-velocity and high-conductivity layers in the crust of the Chuandian and Bayan Har blocks, which are one of the important factors that make the upper crust prone to earthquake. The results of geological study and modern GPS observation show that blocks of different orders all have SE- or SSE-trending sliding, clockwise rotation and upwelling movement; but there are some differences in amplitude. This paper has also given the geological or GPS slip rates of main active fault zones and discussed the main scientific problems still existing now.

A stochastic model of the Fourier phase of strong ground motion

The notion of equivalent dispersion of strong seismic waves is further illuminated and a frequency-dependentstochastic model of the Fourier phase of strong earthquake ground motion is presented for use in statistical estimates of the Fourier phase. The non-stationary features of design ground motions synthesized using the phasemodel in combination with the empirical attenuation model of amplitude spectra of strong ground motion are ableto be consistent with those of observed records in the sense of statistics.

Global existence of weak solutions to a prey-predator model with strong cross-diffusion

Using finite differences and entropy inequalities, the global existence of weak solutions to a multidimensional parabolic strongly coupled prey-predator model is obtained. The nonnegativity of the solutions is also shown.

An analytical variational method for the biased quantum Rabi model in the ultra-strong coupling regime

An analytical variational method for the ground state of the biased quantum Rabi model in the ultra-strong coupling regime is presented. This analytical variational method can be obtained by a unitary transformation or alternatively by assuming the form of the ground state wave function. The key of the method is to introduce a variational parameter λ,which can be determined by minimizing the energy functional. Using this method, we calculate the physical observables with high accuracy in comparison with the numerical exact ones. Our method evidently improves over the widely used general rotating-wave approximation（GRWA） in both qualitative and quantitative aspects.

3-D physical model in strong ground motion numerical simulation:A case study of Kunming basin

Seismic hazard assessment based on urban active faults can provide scientific bases for city planning and project construction, while numerical simulation of strong ground motion is an important method for seismic hazard prediction and assessment. A 3-D physical model in conformity with real strata configuration of （mainly） the Quaternary is a prerequisite to ensure the reliability of the simulation results. In this paper, we give a detailed account of the technical scheme and process for creating a 3-D physical model in Kunming basin. The data used are synthe- sized from seismogeological data, borehole data, topographic data, digital elevation mode （DEM） data, seismic exploration results and wave velocity measurements. Strafigraphic division is based mainly on shear wave velocity, with strata sequence taken into consideration. The model construction is finally accomplished with ArcGIS and many relevant programming techniques via layer-by-layer stacking （in depth direction） of the adjacent medium interfaces （meshes）. Meanwhile, a database of 3-D physical models is set up, which provides model data and parameters for strong ground motion simulation. Some processing methods and significant issues are also addressed in the paper in accordance with different types of exploration and experimental data.

Numerical modeling of zero-offset laboratory data in a strong topographic environment: results for a spectral-element method and a discretized Kirchhoff integral method

Abstract Accurate simulation of seismic wave propaga- tion in complex geological structures is of particular interest nowadays. However conventional methods may fail to simulate realistic wavefields in environments with great and rapid structural changes, due for instance to the presence of shadow zones, diffractions and/or edge effects. Different methods, developed to improve seismic model- ing, are typically tested on synthetic configurations against analytical solutions for simple canonical problems or ref- erence methods, or via direct comparison with real data acquired in situ. Such approaches have limitations,especially if the propagation occurs in a complex envi- ronment with strong-contrast reflectors and surface irreg- ularities, as it can be difficult to determine the method which gives the best approximation of the ＂real＂ solution, or to interpret the results obtained without an a priori knowledge of the geologic environment. An alternative approach for seismics consists in comparing the synthetic data with high-quality data collected in laboratory experi- ments under controlled conditions for a known configuration. In contrast with numerical experiments, laboratory data possess many of the characteristics of field data, as real waves propagate through models with no numerical approximations. We thus present a comparison of laboratory-scaled measurements of 3D zero-offset wave reflection of broadband pulses from a strong topographic environment immersed in a water tank with numerical data simulated by means of a spectral-element method and a discretized Kirchhoff integral method. The results indicate a good quantitative fit in terms of time arrivals and acceptable fit in amplitudes for all datasets.

基于GPS数据分析巴颜喀拉块体边界强震活动特征

基于巴颜喀拉块体边界大地震序列,运用多弹簧滑块系统理论分析未来各边界断裂发生强震的可能时间;基于1991—2016年中国大陆GPS水平速度场数据,采用均匀弹性块体模型计算了巴颜喀拉块体各边界断裂带的长期活动特征,并以此作为参考背景,计算了1999—2007、2009—2013、2013—2015、2015—2017、2017—2020年各边界断裂带的活动性质及时空演化特征,同时结合1995年以来发生在各边界断裂带上的M≥7.0地震震源机制解综合分析强震活动与块体运动的关系。结果表明:1995年以来发生在块体各边界断裂带上的M≥7.0地震震源机制与块体边界的运动特征一致,这一系列地震可能是由巴颜喀拉块体向E—SE向运动增强所致。综合块体边界大震序列与块体相对运动结果认为,未来十年,甘孜—玉树断裂、龙门山断裂南段、东昆仑断裂带东段存在发生M≥7.0地震的可能。

人工智能风险治理:模式、工具与策略

人工智能技术在近二十年飞速迭代,由此产生的风险治理挑战呼唤治理模式与治理工具的创新。规制型治理、创新型治理、自治型治理、市场导向型治理、集中式治理、敏捷治理是目前较为成熟的风险治理模式,法律规制、伦理规范、数据算法、社会场景等领域的新兴风险催生更具体、更灵活的风险治理工具,以适应新涌现的风险治理需求。中国坚持人工智能技术创新与风险治理的协同改进和动态均衡,逐步向敏捷治理模式转变,各具体领域的风险治理工具呈现全面性、及时性、精准性的特征。中国应从治理理念更新、多元主体协同、强度刚柔并济、工具灵活有效、追求可信目标等方面提升风险应对能力,并将国家、政府、企业、公众纳入风险治理模式构建全过程,实现治理工具在各领域的多维组合性使用。

STRONG CONVERGENCE RATES OF SEVERAL ESTIMATORS IN SEMIPARAMETRIC VARYING-COEFFICIENT PARTIALLY LINEAR MODELS

This article is concerned with the estimating problem of semiparametric varyingcoefficient partially linear regression models. By combining the local polynomial and least squares procedures Fan and Huang （2005） proposed a profile least squares estimator for the parametric component and established its asymptotic normality. We further show that the profile least squares estimator can achieve the law of iterated logarithm. Moreover, we study the estimators of the functions characterizing the non-linear part as well as the error variance. The strong convergence rate and the law of iterated logarithm are derived for them, respectively.

Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes

Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.

高机动目标的改进强跟踪CKF自适应IMM算法

为提升高机动目标跟踪精度,提出了一种改进的强跟踪CKF自适应交互多模型跟踪算法。在IMM算法运动模型集中引入CS-Jerk模型,增强对高机动目标的适应能力,采用奇异值分解(SVD)算法解决模型集中因模型扩维而导致CKF算法无法Cholesky分解的问题;提出了一种改进的强跟踪CKF算法,降低强跟踪CKF算法的计算量;利用模型的后验信息对IMM算法模型转移概率进行自适应调整,提高跟踪精度。仿真结果表明,基于所提算法目标的位置均方根误差均值和速度均方根误差均值较IMM-CKF算法分别降低了22.50%和16.58%,有效提高了目标跟踪精度。

基于FOA-BP-AdaBoost的大坝变形预测模型及应用

为提升大坝变形监测预测精度,解决变形量受多因素影响等问题,笔者提出了基于果蝇优化算法(FOA)、BP神经网络的AdaBoost强预测组合模型(FOA-BP-AdaBoost),并与BP神经网络模型、FOA-BP神经网络模型应用于工程实例中的预测精度进行多方位量化对比。结果表明:强预测模型集齐了果蝇算法全局优化、BP神经网络局部寻优和AdaBoost“优中选优”的特点,最大程度优化了预测效果;实例应用证实了FOA-BP-AdaBoost模型在大坝变形预测领域的准确性和有效性。该模型已成功应用于工程实例,可为类似工程提供参考。

A Higher-Efficient Non-Hydrostatic Finite Volume Model for Strong Three-Dimensional Free Surface Flows and Sediment Transport

In order to accurately simulate strong three-dimensional （3-D） free surface flows and sediment transport, the fully 3- D non-hydrostatic pressure models are developed based on the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and convection-diffusion equation of sediment concentration with the mixing triangle and quadrilateral grids. The governing equations are discretized with the unstructured finite volume method in order to provide conservation properties of mass and momentum, and flexibility with practical application. It is shown that it is first-order accurate on nonuniform plane two-dimensional （2-D） grids and second-order accurate on uniform plane grids. A third-order approximation of the vertical velocity at the top-layer is applied. In such a way, free surface zero stress boundary condition is satisfied maturely, and very few vertical layers are needed to give an accurate solution even for complex discontinuous flow and short wave simulation. The model is applied to four examples to simulate strong 3-D free surface flows and sediment transport where non-hydrostatic pressures have a considerable effect on the velocity field. The newly developed model is verified against analytical solutions with an excellent agreement.

锂离子电池分数阶可变阻容建模与荷电状态估计

锂离子电池荷电状态(SOC)的估计对于保障新能源电动汽车稳定、安全地运行至关重要,而高精度的电池模型是SOC估计的基础,但常用的锂离子电池阻容(RC)模型中,存在高阶模型结构复杂、低阶模型近似程度低,以及电池状态突变导致SOC难以精确估计的问题。本文提出一种基于分数微积分理论的锂离子电池分数阶可变阻容(FVOM)模型,通过利用赤池信息量(AIC)准则识别不同SOC时分数阶阻容模型的最优阶数,构建适应不同SOC时的时变阻容电池模型;同时引入衰减因子构建强跟踪分数阶扩展卡尔曼滤波(STF-FEKF)算法,实现电池荷电状态估计,克服历史数据对当前估计值的影响。基于城市道路循环工况(UDDS)等三种不同工况对分数阶扩展卡尔曼滤波(FEKF)算法进行验证。结果表明,在脉冲放电工况下,模型的平均绝对误差(AAE)由0.0197 V降为0.0160 V,其电压误差均小于50 mV,预测精度相对提高了18.8%;同时,改进后的方法使AAE和均方根误差(RMSE)均有所减小,不仅验证了所提方法的有效性,也为提高锂离子电池SOC状态估计精度和计算效率提供了新的思路。