Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes

Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.

Rate of strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models

Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） include generalized linear models as a special case. Under some regularity conditions, the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） is obtained in QLNM. In an important case, this rate is O（n-^1/2（loglogn）^1/2）, which is just the rate of LIL of partial sums for i.i.d variables, and thus cannot be improved anymore.

STRONG SOLUTIONS FOR THE INCOMPRESSIBLE FLUID MODELS OF KORTEWEG TYPE

In this article, we are concerned with the strong solutions for the incompress- ible fluid models of Korteweg type in a bounded domain Ω СR^3. We prove the existence and uniqueness of local strong solutions to the initial boundary value problem. We point out that in this article we allow the existence of initial vacuum provided initial data satisfy a compatibility condition.

Strong ground motion simulation for the 2013 Lushan M_W6.6 earthquake, Sichuan, China, based on the inverted and synthetic slip models

It is well known that quantitative estimation of slip distributions on fault plane is one of the most important issues for earthquake source inversion related to the fault rupture process. The characteristics of slip distribution on the main fault play a fundamental role to control strong ground motion pattern. A large amount of works have also suggested that variable slip models inverted from longer period ground motion recordings are relevant for the prediction of higher frequency ground motions. Zhang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1412-1417, 2013） and Wang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1408-1411,2013） published their source inversions for the fault rupturing process soon after the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake in Sichuan, China. In this study, first, we synthesize two forward source slip models： the value of maximum slip, fault dimension, size, and dimension of major asperities, and comer wave number obtained from Wang＇s model is adopted to constrain the gen- eration of k-2 model and crack model. Next, both inverted and synthetic slip models are employed to simulate the ground motions for the Lushan earthquake based on the stochastic finite-fault method. In addition, for a comparison purpose, a stochastic slip model and another k-2 model （k 2 model II） with 2 times value of comer wave number of the original k-2 model （k 2 model I） are also employed for simulation for Lushan event. The simulated results characterized by Modified Mer- calli Intensity （MMI） show that the source slip models based on the inverted and synthetic slip distributions could capture many basic features associated with the ground motion patterns. Moreover, the simulated MMI distributions reflect the rupture directivity effect and the influence of the shallow velocity structure well. On the other hand, the simulated MMI bystochastic slip model and k 2 model II is apparently higher than observed intensity. By contrast, our simulation results show that the higher frequency ground motion is sensitive to the degree of slip roughness; therefore, we suggest that, for realistic ground- motion simulations due to future earthquake, it is imperative to properly estimate the slip roughness distribution.

Implications for Discovery of Strong Radial Magnetic Field at the Galactic Center—Challenge to Black Hole Models

The black hole model will be excluded by a very strong radial magnetic field near the Galactic Center which has been detected in 2013. Following it, the explosion mechanism, for both supernova and the hot big bang of the Universe, driven by magnetic monopoles is proposed in this paper.

Cosmic Constraints to the wCDM Model from Strong Gravitational Lensing

We study the cosmic constraint to the wCDM （cold dark matter with a constant equation of state w） model via 118 strong gravitational lensing systems which are compiled from SLA CS, BELLS, LSD and SL2S surveys, where the ratio between two angular diameter distances Dobs =DA（Zl, Zs ） / D A （ O, Zs ） is taken as a cosmic observable. To obtain this ratio, we adopt two strong tensing models： one is the singular isothermal sphere model （SIS） and the other one is the power-law density profile （PLP） model. Via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the posterior distribution of the cosmological model parameters space is obtained. The results show that the cosmological model parameters are not sensitive to the parameterized forms of the power-law index γ. Furthermore, the PLP model gives a relatively tighter constraint to the cosmological parameters than that of the SIS model. The predicted value of Ωm = 0.31＋0.44 -0.24 by the SIS model is compatible with that obtained by P1anck2015： Ωm = 0.313 ± 0.013. However, the value of Ωm =0.15＋0.13 -0.11 based on the PLP model is smaller and has 1.25σ tension with that obtained by Planck2015.

Different Interaction Models in Strong Decays of Negative Parity N^＊ ResonancesUnder 2 GeV

In this paper, by using harmonic-oscillator wave functions of different interaction models, i.e. OPE (onepion-exchange model), OPsE (only pseudoscalar meson exchange model), the extended GBE (Goldstone-boson-exchange model including vector and scalar mesons), and OGE (one-gluon-exchange model), we calculate and compare the strong decays of negative parity N* resonances under 2 GeV. We find that the conventional mixing angles are correct, and GBE and OGE are obviously superior to OPE and OPsE.

A stochastic model of the Fourier phase of strong ground motion

The notion of equivalent dispersion of strong seismic waves is further illuminated and a frequency-dependentstochastic model of the Fourier phase of strong earthquake ground motion is presented for use in statistical estimates of the Fourier phase. The non-stationary features of design ground motions synthesized using the phasemodel in combination with the empirical attenuation model of amplitude spectra of strong ground motion are ableto be consistent with those of observed records in the sense of statistics.

ON STRONG SIGNALS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN EARLY RAINING SEASON OF GUANGDONG AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF PREDICTION

Reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR are used to systematically study preceding signals of monthly precipitation anomalies in the early raining season of Guangdong province, from the viewpoints of 500-hPa geopotential height field, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) field, sea surface temperature (SST) and fourteen indexes of general circulation depicting atmosphere activity at high, middle and low latitutes. Being multiple tools of information, a number of conceptual models are formulated that are useful for prediction of the magnitude of monthly precipitation (drought, flood and normal conditionss).

Global existence of weak solutions to a prey-predator model with strong cross-diffusion

Using finite differences and entropy inequalities, the global existence of weak solutions to a multidimensional parabolic strongly coupled prey-predator model is obtained. The nonnegativity of the solutions is also shown.

Basic Characteristics of Active Structures in Western Sichuan and Its Vicinity and Strong Earthquake Recurrence Model

Western Sichuan and its vicinity are located in the juncture of three big active blocks, namely, the Chuandian (Sichuan and Yunnan), the Bayan Har and the South China blocks, on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) Plateau. Many groups of active faults that are capable of generating earthquakes are developed there. Because there exist lateral secondary active faults, the Chuandian block can be further divided into the central Yunnan and northwestern Sichuan sub_blocks; while the Longmenshan sub_block can be divided on the east end of the Bayan Har block. Joint exploration of deep crustal structure shows that there exist low-velocity and high-conductivity layers in the crust of the Chuandian and Bayan Har blocks, which are one of the important factors that make the upper crust prone to earthquake. The results of geological study and modern GPS observation show that blocks of different orders all have SE-or SSE-trending sliding, clockwise rotation and upwelling movement; but there are some differences in amplitude. This paper has also given the geological or GPS slip rates of main active fault zones and discussed the main scientific problems still existing now.

Study of Finite Element Modeling of Strong Earthquake Activities and Its Preliminary Application—Taking Southwest China as an Example

Based on research result concerning the preparation and activity of strong earthquakes in groups and using the finite element method, a finite element dynamic model for Southwest China is established in this paper. Using this model, the stress adjustment in the whole of the Southwest China region in response to the stress change due to strong earthquake occurrence is studied. The preliminary result shows that many strong earthquakes occurred in areas where the stress heightened after the last strong earthquake. So, the finite element model set up in this paper is useful for judging the regions where strong earthquakes are likely to occur in future.

An analytical variational method for the biased quantum Rabi model in the ultra-strong coupling regime

An analytical variational method for the ground state of the biased quantum Rabi model in the ultra-strong coupling regime is presented. This analytical variational method can be obtained by a unitary transformation or alternatively by assuming the form of the ground state wave function. The key of the method is to introduce a variational parameter λ,which can be determined by minimizing the energy functional. Using this method, we calculate the physical observables with high accuracy in comparison with the numerical exact ones. Our method evidently improves over the widely used general rotating-wave approximation（GRWA） in both qualitative and quantitative aspects.

3-D physical model in strong ground motion numerical simulation:A case study of Kunming basin

Seismic hazard assessment based on urban active faults can provide scientific bases for city planning and project construction, while numerical simulation of strong ground motion is an important method for seismic hazard prediction and assessment. A 3-D physical model in conformity with real strata configuration of （mainly） the Quaternary is a prerequisite to ensure the reliability of the simulation results. In this paper, we give a detailed account of the technical scheme and process for creating a 3-D physical model in Kunming basin. The data used are synthe- sized from seismogeological data, borehole data, topographic data, digital elevation mode （DEM） data, seismic exploration results and wave velocity measurements. Strafigraphic division is based mainly on shear wave velocity, with strata sequence taken into consideration. The model construction is finally accomplished with ArcGIS and many relevant programming techniques via layer-by-layer stacking （in depth direction） of the adjacent medium interfaces （meshes）. Meanwhile, a database of 3-D physical models is set up, which provides model data and parameters for strong ground motion simulation. Some processing methods and significant issues are also addressed in the paper in accordance with different types of exploration and experimental data.

Numerical modeling of zero-offset laboratory data in a strong topographic environment: results for a spectral-element method and a discretized Kirchhoff integral method

Abstract Accurate simulation of seismic wave propaga- tion in complex geological structures is of particular interest nowadays. However conventional methods may fail to simulate realistic wavefields in environments with great and rapid structural changes, due for instance to the presence of shadow zones, diffractions and/or edge effects. Different methods, developed to improve seismic model- ing, are typically tested on synthetic configurations against analytical solutions for simple canonical problems or ref- erence methods, or via direct comparison with real data acquired in situ. Such approaches have limitations,especially if the propagation occurs in a complex envi- ronment with strong-contrast reflectors and surface irreg- ularities, as it can be difficult to determine the method which gives the best approximation of the ＂real＂ solution, or to interpret the results obtained without an a priori knowledge of the geologic environment. An alternative approach for seismics consists in comparing the synthetic data with high-quality data collected in laboratory experi- ments under controlled conditions for a known configuration. In contrast with numerical experiments, laboratory data possess many of the characteristics of field data, as real waves propagate through models with no numerical approximations. We thus present a comparison of laboratory-scaled measurements of 3D zero-offset wave reflection of broadband pulses from a strong topographic environment immersed in a water tank with numerical data simulated by means of a spectral-element method and a discretized Kirchhoff integral method. The results indicate a good quantitative fit in terms of time arrivals and acceptable fit in amplitudes for all datasets.

基于GPS数据分析巴颜喀拉块体边界强震活动特征

基于巴颜喀拉块体边界大地震序列,运用多弹簧滑块系统理论分析未来各边界断裂发生强震的可能时间;基于1991—2016年中国大陆GPS水平速度场数据,采用均匀弹性块体模型计算了巴颜喀拉块体各边界断裂带的长期活动特征,并以此作为参考背景,计算了1999—2007、2009—2013、2013—2015、2015—2017、2017—2020年各边界断裂带的活动性质及时空演化特征,同时结合1995年以来发生在各边界断裂带上的M≥7.0地震震源机制解综合分析强震活动与块体运动的关系。结果表明:1995年以来发生在块体各边界断裂带上的M≥7.0地震震源机制与块体边界的运动特征一致,这一系列地震可能是由巴颜喀拉块体向E—SE向运动增强所致。综合块体边界大震序列与块体相对运动结果认为,未来十年,甘孜—玉树断裂、龙门山断裂南段、东昆仑断裂带东段存在发生M≥7.0地震的可能。

Strong Consistency of Estimators of a Semiparametric Regression Model under Fixed Design

在这份报纸，我们在固定设计下面考虑下列 semiparametric 回归模型：yi = x'i+g (xi )+ei。评估者， g (

人工智能风险治理:模式、工具与策略

人工智能技术在近二十年飞速迭代,由此产生的风险治理挑战呼唤治理模式与治理工具的创新。规制型治理、创新型治理、自治型治理、市场导向型治理、集中式治理、敏捷治理是目前较为成熟的风险治理模式,法律规制、伦理规范、数据算法、社会场景等领域的新兴风险催生更具体、更灵活的风险治理工具,以适应新涌现的风险治理需求。中国坚持人工智能技术创新与风险治理的协同改进和动态均衡,逐步向敏捷治理模式转变,各具体领域的风险治理工具呈现全面性、及时性、精准性的特征。中国应从治理理念更新、多元主体协同、强度刚柔并济、工具灵活有效、追求可信目标等方面提升风险应对能力,并将国家、政府、企业、公众纳入风险治理模式构建全过程,实现治理工具在各领域的多维组合性使用。

STRONG CONVERGENCE RATES OF SEVERAL ESTIMATORS IN SEMIPARAMETRIC VARYING-COEFFICIENT PARTIALLY LINEAR MODELS

This article is concerned with the estimating problem of semiparametric varyingcoefficient partially linear regression models. By combining the local polynomial and least squares procedures Fan and Huang （2005） proposed a profile least squares estimator for the parametric component and established its asymptotic normality. We further show that the profile least squares estimator can achieve the law of iterated logarithm. Moreover, we study the estimators of the functions characterizing the non-linear part as well as the error variance. The strong convergence rate and the law of iterated logarithm are derived for them, respectively.

Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes

Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.