We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm...We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.展开更多
The inflation of a five-ring cone parachute with the airflow velocity of 18 m/s is studied based on the simplified arbitrary Lagrange Euler （SALE）/fluid-structure interaction （FSI） method. The numerical results of...The inflation of a five-ring cone parachute with the airflow velocity of 18 m/s is studied based on the simplified arbitrary Lagrange Euler （SALE）/fluid-structure interaction （FSI） method. The numerical results of the canopy shape, stability, opening load, and drag area are obtained, and they are well consistent with the experimental data gained from wind tunnel tests. The method is then used to simulate the opening process under different velocities. It is found that the first load shock affected by the velocity often occurs at the end of the initial inflation stage. For the first time, the phenomena that the inflation distance proportion coefficient increases and the dynamic load coefficient decreases, respectively, with the increase in the velocity are revealed. The above proposed method is competent to solve the large deformation problem without empirial coefficients, and can collect more space-time details of fluid-structure-motion information when it is compared with the traditional method.展开更多
Inflatable wing has significant application value in the design of loitering munitions because of its advantages such as lightweight and foldability.However,due to the flexible characteristics,aeroelastic behaviors of...Inflatable wing has significant application value in the design of loitering munitions because of its advantages such as lightweight and foldability.However,due to the flexible characteristics,aeroelastic behaviors of inflatable wings such as flutter are nonnegligible in flight.By designing a certain angle between the inflatable beam and the wing span,the structural dynamic and even the aeroelastic performance of the inflatable wing can be effectively improved.Based on the analysis of the mechanical and geometric characteristics of the inflatable structure,a new inflatable wing with sweep arranged inflatable beams is proposed,and the main design variables and methods are analyzed.For purpose of investigating the aeroelastic performance of the swept baffled inflatable wing,the modal behaviors by considering the wet mode are studied.In consideration of the deficiencies of the traditional wet modal analysis method,by introducing the influence on the additional stiffness of flow field,an added massstiffness method is proposed in this paper,and the advantages are verified by ground vibration experiments.On this basis,the effects of baffles sweep angle,pressure,and boundary conditions on the modal parameters and aeroelastic performance of inflatable wing are analyzed.The results show that the aeroelastic performance of the inflatable wing can be designed by changing the baffles sweep angle,which is enlightened for the aeroelastic tailoring design on inflatable wings.展开更多
The early universe inflation is well known as a promising theory to explain the origin of large-scale structure of universe and to solve the early universe pressing problems. For a reasonable inflation model, the pote...The early universe inflation is well known as a promising theory to explain the origin of large-scale structure of universe and to solve the early universe pressing problems. For a reasonable inflation model, the potential during inflation must be very flat, at least, in the direction of the inflaton. To construct the inflaton potential all the known related astrophysics observations should be included. For a general tree-level hybrid inflation potential, which is notdiscussed fully so far, the parameters in it are shown how to be constrained via the astrophysics data observed and to be obtained to the expected accuracy, and to be consistent with cosmology requirements.展开更多
In this paper,the author first summarizes China’s price operation situation and characteristics since the 1990s,and thenanalyzes inflation shaping factors and types.Based on that,the author raises six inflation early...In this paper,the author first summarizes China’s price operation situation and characteristics since the 1990s,and thenanalyzes inflation shaping factors and types.Based on that,the author raises six inflation early-warning indexes andfully dissects influencing factors of the overall price trend and inflation risks during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Afterthat,the author explains some aspects of price fluctuation that warrants attention during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Finally,the author puts forward policies and suggestions for stabilizing the overall price during the transformation of theeconomic development mode based on our actual situation.展开更多
因“供需低迷”和“输入通胀”,中国经济当前面临“稳增长”和“防通胀”双重压力。鉴于此,本文聚焦于我国结构性货币政策的“宏观总量”效应,研究其能否兼顾“稳增长”与“防通胀”双重目标。结合中国结构性货币政策实践,将货币引入NK(...因“供需低迷”和“输入通胀”,中国经济当前面临“稳增长”和“防通胀”双重压力。鉴于此,本文聚焦于我国结构性货币政策的“宏观总量”效应,研究其能否兼顾“稳增长”与“防通胀”双重目标。结合中国结构性货币政策实践,将货币引入NK(New Keynesian)模型的生产函数,构建一个具有厂商和银行异质性的MIUP(Money In Utility and Production)模型。DSGE分析发现:考虑货币在供给侧的“生产效应”后,即使货币总量钉住不变,结构性货币政策也能够增加短期产出同时维持价格稳定,因此可以兼顾“稳增长”和“防通胀”双重目标。政策启示为:结构性货币政策设计,应同时考虑“中观结构”调整功能和“宏观总量”调控功能,以创新出更科学的政策工具;结构性货币政策执行,应充分利用其“宏观总量”调控功能,以实现“稳增长”和“防通胀”双重目标。展开更多
基金The author is infinitely thankful to his friend and colleague M.Rubinstein for valuable discussions and an invariable interest to his work.The author is also thankful to C.Miller for his high estimation of the author’s efforts.Of course,all errors are author’s full responsibility.
文摘We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11172137)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(No.20122910001)
文摘The inflation of a five-ring cone parachute with the airflow velocity of 18 m/s is studied based on the simplified arbitrary Lagrange Euler （SALE）/fluid-structure interaction （FSI） method. The numerical results of the canopy shape, stability, opening load, and drag area are obtained, and they are well consistent with the experimental data gained from wind tunnel tests. The method is then used to simulate the opening process under different velocities. It is found that the first load shock affected by the velocity often occurs at the end of the initial inflation stage. For the first time, the phenomena that the inflation distance proportion coefficient increases and the dynamic load coefficient decreases, respectively, with the increase in the velocity are revealed. The above proposed method is competent to solve the large deformation problem without empirial coefficients, and can collect more space-time details of fluid-structure-motion information when it is compared with the traditional method.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11902029)。
文摘Inflatable wing has significant application value in the design of loitering munitions because of its advantages such as lightweight and foldability.However,due to the flexible characteristics,aeroelastic behaviors of inflatable wings such as flutter are nonnegligible in flight.By designing a certain angle between the inflatable beam and the wing span,the structural dynamic and even the aeroelastic performance of the inflatable wing can be effectively improved.Based on the analysis of the mechanical and geometric characteristics of the inflatable structure,a new inflatable wing with sweep arranged inflatable beams is proposed,and the main design variables and methods are analyzed.For purpose of investigating the aeroelastic performance of the swept baffled inflatable wing,the modal behaviors by considering the wet mode are studied.In consideration of the deficiencies of the traditional wet modal analysis method,by introducing the influence on the additional stiffness of flow field,an added massstiffness method is proposed in this paper,and the advantages are verified by ground vibration experiments.On this basis,the effects of baffles sweep angle,pressure,and boundary conditions on the modal parameters and aeroelastic performance of inflatable wing are analyzed.The results show that the aeroelastic performance of the inflatable wing can be designed by changing the baffles sweep angle,which is enlightened for the aeroelastic tailoring design on inflatable wings.
文摘The early universe inflation is well known as a promising theory to explain the origin of large-scale structure of universe and to solve the early universe pressing problems. For a reasonable inflation model, the potential during inflation must be very flat, at least, in the direction of the inflaton. To construct the inflaton potential all the known related astrophysics observations should be included. For a general tree-level hybrid inflation potential, which is notdiscussed fully so far, the parameters in it are shown how to be constrained via the astrophysics data observed and to be obtained to the expected accuracy, and to be consistent with cosmology requirements.
文摘In this paper,the author first summarizes China’s price operation situation and characteristics since the 1990s,and thenanalyzes inflation shaping factors and types.Based on that,the author raises six inflation early-warning indexes andfully dissects influencing factors of the overall price trend and inflation risks during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Afterthat,the author explains some aspects of price fluctuation that warrants attention during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Finally,the author puts forward policies and suggestions for stabilizing the overall price during the transformation of theeconomic development mode based on our actual situation.
文摘因“供需低迷”和“输入通胀”,中国经济当前面临“稳增长”和“防通胀”双重压力。鉴于此,本文聚焦于我国结构性货币政策的“宏观总量”效应,研究其能否兼顾“稳增长”与“防通胀”双重目标。结合中国结构性货币政策实践,将货币引入NK(New Keynesian)模型的生产函数,构建一个具有厂商和银行异质性的MIUP(Money In Utility and Production)模型。DSGE分析发现:考虑货币在供给侧的“生产效应”后,即使货币总量钉住不变,结构性货币政策也能够增加短期产出同时维持价格稳定,因此可以兼顾“稳增长”和“防通胀”双重目标。政策启示为:结构性货币政策设计,应同时考虑“中观结构”调整功能和“宏观总量”调控功能,以创新出更科学的政策工具;结构性货币政策执行,应充分利用其“宏观总量”调控功能,以实现“稳增长”和“防通胀”双重目标。
