Research on Early Warning of Banking Crises from the Perspective of Credit Structures

The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.

Metasurfaces enabling structured light manipulation:advances and perspectives [Invited]

Metasurfaces and structured light have rapidly advanced over the past few years, from being paradigms to forming functional devices and tailoring special light beams for wide emerging applications. Here, we focus on harnessing metasurfaces for structured light manipulation. We review recent advances in shaping structured light by metasurfaces on different platforms（metal, silica, silicon, and fiber）. Structured light manipulation based on plasmonic metasurfaces, reflection-enhanced plasmonic metasurfaces, metasurfaces on fiber facets, dielectric metasurfaces, and sub-wavelength structures on silicon are presented, showing impressive performance.Future trends, challenges, perspectives, and opportunities are also discussed.