Analysis and forecasts of investment scale and structure in upstream sector for oil companies based on system dynamics

Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF THE LARGE SCALE COHERENT STRUCTURES IN A FORCED FREE SHEAR LAYER

The dynamic characteristics of the large scale coherent structures in a forced free shear layer are experi- mentally studied by means of flow visualization. The quantitative measurements are acquired by the use of a LDV. It is shown that the development of the coherent structures can be greatly influenced by upstream artificial perturbations and as a result the mixing in the layer can be controlled. Like vortex merging, vortex splitting is also a common evolu- tion pattern in the development of the coherent structures.

ON THE EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE STRUCTURES IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL MIXING LAYERS

In this paper, several mathematical models for the large scale structures in some special kinds of mixing layers, which might be practically useful for enhancing the mixing, are proposed. First, the linear growth rate of the large scale structures in the mixing layers was calculated. Then, using the much improved weakly non-linear theory, combined with the energy method, the non-linear evolution of large scale structures in two special mixing layer configurations is calculated. One of the mixing lavers has equal magnitudes of the upstream velocity vectors, while the angles between the velocity vectors and the trailing edge were pi /2 - phi and pi /2 + phi, respectively. The other mixing layer was generated by a splitter-plate with a 45-degree-sweep trailing edge.

Interaction of Turbulent Coherent Structures and Small Scale Structures

In lhis paper experimental research is carried out for the existence of larqe andsmall scale .structures in turbulent boundary layer and the interactions between these structures. Based on the experimental results ,a new cethod is suggested io (iescribethe coherent strucures in which the interactions between between the coherent and small-scale slructures are considered ,Using this method a new pattern recognition method is and rough wall conditions. The results show that the suggested method is reasonable .

Mill scale structure and damp heat corrosion performance of four 510L hot-rolled strips

In this study, the matrix structure, state and composition of the mill scales of four typical domestically made 510L hot-rolled strips were observed and analyzed by means of optical microscopy （OM） ,scanning electron microscopy （SEM） and X-ray diffraction （XRD）. The corrosion behavior of the steels with and without mill scales were investigated by means of hot-humid corrosion tests under the condition of relative humidity （ RH ） of 95% at 50℃ and 70℃, respectively. The results show that the matrix structures, state, composition and thickness of mill scales vary in the strips. The rusting starting time of the specimens with scales is generally a bit longer than that of the specimens without scales, but their corrosion mass-gain is higher. For these two kinds of specimens ,their corrosion rate increases significantly with the increase of temperature. The rusting behavior of the 510L strips produced by various plants is different due to the variations of hot-rolling processes and designed chemical compositions. Various relevant aspects should be taken into account in the evaluation of the corrosion behavior of hot-rolled strips.

THE EFFECTS OF VELOCITY RATIO ON THE LARGE SCALE COHERENT STRUCTURES IN FREE SHEAR LAYERS

The velocity ratio of a free shear layer has an important influence on the spatial development of the large scale coherent structures in the layer. In this study, numerical simulations are performed to get an insight into this problem. The obtained numerical results agree quite well with those of a linear inviscid stability theory and the available experimental data.

Dynamical Dark Energy in Light of Cosmic Distance Measurements.Ⅰ.A Demonstration Using Simulated Datasets

We develop methods to extract key dark energy information from cosmic distance measurements including the BAO scales and supernova(SN) luminosity distances.Demonstrated using simulated data sets of the complete DESI,LSST and Roman surveys designed for BAO and SN distance measurements,we show that using our method,the dynamical behavior of the energy,pressure,equation of state(with its time derivative) of dark energy and the cosmic deceleration function can all be accurately recovered from high-quality data,which allows for robust diagnostic tests for dark energy models.

Classical Cosmology I. Anomalous Redshift for Galaxies in NED-D

Three mechanisms for an alternative to the Doppler effect as an explanation for the redshift are reviewed. A fourth mechanism is the attenuation of the light as given by the Beer-Lambert law. The average value of the Hubble constant is therefore derived by processing the galaxies of the NED-D catalog in which the distances are independent of the redshift. The observed anisotropy of the Hubble constant is reproduced by adopting a rim model, a chord model, and both 2D and 3D Voronoi diagrams.

Physical Mechanism of Formation of the Bimodal Structure in the Meiyu Front System

The bimodal structure of the Meiyu front system is readdressed after Zhou et al.（2005）. The physical mechanism of the formation of the bimodal distribution is discussed. The bimodal structure of the Melyu front system considerably results from atmospheric moisture gradients, though atmospheric temperature gradients are also not negligible. According to the definition of equivalent potential temperature, and by scale analysis, we find that atmospheric equivalent potential temperature gradients, which could be regarded as an indicator of the Meiyu front system, could be mainly attributed to the variations of atmospheric potential temperature gradients with a scaling factor of 1 and moisture gradients multiplied by a scaling factor of an order of about 2.5 × 10^3, which means that small variations of atmospheric moisture gradients could lead to large variations of equivalent potential temperature gradients, and thus large variations of the Meiyu front system. Quantitative diagnostics with a mesoscale simulation data in the vicinity of the Meiyu front system show that moisture gradients contribute to equivalent potential temperature gradients more than potential temperature gradients.

Regional Structure and Spatial Morphology Characteristics of Oasis Urban Agglomeration in Arid Area——A Case of Urban Agglomeration in Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains,Northwest China

It is great important to the health development of urban agglomeration to correctly understand the formation and development law of regional structure of urban agglomeration.Employing the analysis methods like fractal theory and quantitative statistics,coupling with the use of remote sensing images and other spatial data,this article discusses the urban agglomeration of oasis on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in an arid area,and conducts the researches on its city scale,spatial distribution and individual form from 1990 to 2005.The result shows that it has loose hierarchical scale structure and polarization trend of population distribution while its hierarchical scale structure tends to mature.Under the influence of natural conditions,the spatial layout of urban agglomeration of oasis has macro characteristics that suggest cities distributed along oasis edges(dense or sparse),spatially expand along rivers,and cluster around traffic branches.The connectivity among the cities is high and shows an internal organization form of a banding distribution.The whole spatial shape of the internal structure of cities presents a "dumbbell" form,with mononuclear phenomenon receding and multi-nuclear appearing gradually.Individual cities spatially expand along rivers,portraying a long strip appearance.It indicates that the urban agglomeration of oasis shows regular and close structure but with a tendency to be complicated form and the loose structure.In the development of urban agglomeration,the authors recommend that the development of the city with good economic development conditions should be strengthened,and more attention be put into regional planning.

Corrections to the scaling of the second-order structure function in isotropic turbulence

The approach of Obukhov assuming a constant skewness was used to obtain analytical corrections to the scaling of the second order structure function, starting from Kolmogorov＇s 4/5 law. These corrections can be used in model applications in which explicit expressions, rather than numerical solutions are needed. The comparison with an interpolation formula proposed by Batchelor, showed that the latter gives surprisingly precise results. The modification of the same method to obtain analytical corrections to the scaling law, taking into account the possible corrections induced by intermittency, is also proposed.

Systematic rationalization approach for multivariate correlated alarms based on interpretive structural modeling and Likert scale

Alarm flood is one of the main problems in the alarm systems of industrial process. Alarm root-cause analysis and alarm prioritization are good for alarm flood reduction. This paper proposes a systematic rationalization method for multivariate correlated alarms to realize the root cause analysis and alarm prioritization. An information fusion based interpretive structural model is constructed according to the data-driven partial correlation coefficient calculation and process knowledge modification. This hierarchical multi-layer model is helpful in abnormality propagation path identification and root-cause analysis. Revised Likert scale method is adopted to determine the alarm priority and reduce the blindness of alarm handling. As a case study, the Tennessee Eastman process is utilized to show the effectiveness and validity of proposed approach. Alarm system performance comparison shows that our rationalization methodology can reduce the alarm flood to some extent and improve the performance.

Generalized model for laser-induced surface structure in metallic glass

The details of the special three-dimensional micro-nano scale ripples with a period of hundreds of microns on the surfaces of a Zr-based and a La-based metallic glass irradiated separately by single laser pulse are investigated.We use the small-amplitude capillary wave theory to unveil the ripple formation mechanism through considering each of the molten metallic glasses as an incompressible viscous fluid.A generalized model is presented to describe the special morphology,which fits the experimental result well.It is also revealed that the viscosity brings about the biggest effect on the monotone decreasing nature of the amplitude and the wavelength of the surface ripples.The greater the viscosity is,the shorter the amplitude and the wavelength are.

Evolution of Small Scale Density Perturbations of Plasma and Charged Aerosol Particles in Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes (PMSE) Layers

Time evolution of ionospheric D-region plasmas including the perturbations of electrons and charged aerosol particles is investigated under the conditions of polar mesosphere summer echoes （PMSE）. It is shown that the time scale of decay of the electron density is in the order of an hour under typical PMSE conditions, in the majority of cases, the electron density is anticorrelated to the ion density, except that the radius of aerosol particles is greater than 50 nm. Also, the evolutions under varied parameters, such as the amplitude and width of perturbation, the aerosol particle radius, and the altitude of the PMSE occurrence are investigated. The obtained results are useful for interpreting the experimental observations.

Estimating the power spectrum of a discrete cosmic momentum field with fast Fourier transform

Fast Fourier transform based estimators are formulated for measuring momentum power spectra,including the auto power spectra of the momentum,the momentum divergence,and the cross spectrum of density fluctuation and momentum divergence.Algorithms using the third order Bettle-Lemariéscaling function to assign discrete objects to regular grids for fast Fourier transform are proposed to clean alias effects.Numerical experiments prove that the implementation can achieve sub-percent precision till close to the Nyquist frequency.The impact of removing bulk flow on the estimation of momentum power spectra is derived theoretically and verified numerically.Subtracting bulk flow has little effects at large scales but might induce meaningful differences in nonlinear regime,and probably it is not necessary to subtract bulk flow for samples which peculiar velocities are exact or sufficiently accurate.Momentum power spectra of dark matter samples from N-body simulation are measured and discussed.As expected,the prediction of the one loop Eulerian perturbation theory agrees with simulation only slightly better than the linear theory at z=0,but can be applied to higher redshift with improved accuracy.Measurements of simulation data and the one loop Eulerian theory both reveal that the momentum field contains strong rotational part,and there is a large stochastic component in the divergence of momentum which is not correlated with the density field.The three kinds of momentum power spectra have their own characteristics.

New Probability Distributions in Astrophysics: V. The Truncated Weibull Distribution

We demonstrate that certain astrophysical distributions can be modelled with the truncated Weibull distribution, which can lead to some insights: in particular, we report the average value, the rth moment, the variance, the median, the mode, the generation of random numbers, and the evaluation of the two parameters with maximum likelihood estimators. The first application of the Weibull distribution is the initial mass function for stars. The magnitude version of the Weibull distribution is applied to the luminosity function for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxies and to the photometric maximum of the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS) galaxies. The truncated Weibull luminosity function allows us to model the average value of the absolute magnitude as a function of the redshift for the 2MRS galaxies.

An optimal method for the power spectrum measurement

An aliasing effect brought up by mass assignment onto Fast Fourier Transformation （FFT） grids may bias measurement of the power spectrum of large scale structures. In this paper, based on the Beylkin＇s unequally spaced FFT technique, we propose a new precise method to extract the true power spectrum of a large discrete data set. We compare the traditional mass assignment schemes with the new method using the Daub6 and the 3rd-order B-spline scaling functions. Our measurement of Poisson samples and samples of N-body simulations shows that the B-spline scaling function is an optimal choice for mass assignment in the sense that （1） it has a compact support in real space and thus yields an efficient algorithm （2） without any extra corrections. The Fourier space behavior of the 3rd-order B-spline scaling function enables it to be able to accurately recover the true power spectrum with errors less than 5% up to k 〈 kN. It is expected that such a method can be applied to higher order statistics in Fourier space and will enable us to have a precision capture of the non-Gaussian features in the large scale structure of the universe.

STUDY ON THE STABILITY STRUCTURE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS,THE BIFURCATION OF PHASE.PATH CHARACTERISTICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIME-OSCILLATION OF HEAT SOURCE

This paper discusses the stability structure and the bifurcation of phase path characteristics of synoptic scale system.The analytic results show that the catastrophe of the synoptic scale disturbance may be caused by the nonlinear effects of barotropic and baroclinic instability and advection of ambient large-scale flow.Also, foregoing nonlinear effects on the speed of development and decay of the system are presented in the processes deviating from or approaching to equilibrium state.It has been found that there is a resonance phenomenon between the time-oscillation of heat source and the atmospheric disturbance.

New Probability Distributions in Astrophysics: VI. The Truncated Sujatha Distribution

The truncated version of the two-parameter Sujatha distribution is analysed. In particular, its probability density function and distribution function are obtained. The results are applied to the initial mass function for stars, to the luminosity function for galaxies, to the number of galaxies as a function of the redshift and to the average absolute magnitude of a galaxy as a function of its redshift.

EFFECTS OF DIABATIC PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON THE SIMULATION OF MESO-β SCALE STRUCTURE OF A SQUALL LINE SYSTEM

The effects of different convective parameterization,explicit moisture schemes and surface heat- ing on the meso-β scale structure of a squall line system are investigated,by using an improved mesoscale model.It is found that the successful prediction of mesoscale convective systems hinges up- on not only the sub-grid scale convection,but also the resolvable scale phase change processes and the diurnal variation in the boundary layer.The simultaneous operation of the Fritsch-Chappell convective scheme with parameterized moist downdrafts and the prognostic equations for cloud water (ice) and rainwater (snow) seems to be essential in simulating realistically MCSs and reducing or eliminating the unrealistic development of the CISK-like instability associated with the squall line system.