Prediction and optimization of flue pressure in sintering process based on SHAP

Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.

Early prediction cardiac arrest in intensive care units:the value of laboratory indicator trends

The incidence of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) has increased over the past decade,with more than half occurring in intensive care units (ICUs).^([1])ICU cardiac arrest (ICU-CA)presents unique challenges,with worse outcomes than those in monitored wards,highlighting the need for early detection and intervention.^([2])Up to 80%of patients exhibit signs of deterioration hours before IHCA.^([3])Although early warning scores based on vital signs are useful,their eff ectiveness in ICUs is limited due to abnormal physiological parameters.^([4])Laboratory markers,such as sodium,potassium,and lactate,are predictive of poor outcomes,^([5])but static measurements may not capture the patient’s trajectory.Trends in laboratory indicators,such as variability and extremes,may offer better predictive value.^([6])This study aimed to evaluate ICU-CA predictive factors,with a focus on vital signs and trends of laboratory indicators.

Short-Term Rolling Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Based on Multi-Task Learning with Fusion of Deviation-Angle Variance and Satellite Imagery

Tropical cyclones(TCs)are one of the most serious types of natural disasters,and accurate TC activity predictions are key to disaster prevention and mitigation.Recently,TC track predictions have made significant progress,but the ability to predict their intensity is obviously lagging behind.At present,research on TC intensity prediction takes atmospheric reanalysis data as the research object and mines the relationship between TC-related environmental factors and intensity through deep learning.However,reanalysis data are non-real-time in nature,which does not meet the requirements for operational forecasting applications.Therefore,a TC intensity prediction model named TC-Rolling is proposed,which can simultaneously extract the degree of symmetry for strong TC convective cloud and convection intensity,and fuse the deviation-angle variance with satellite images to construct the correlation between TC convection structure and intensity.For TCs'complex dynamic processes,a convolutional neural network(CNN)is used to learn their temporal and spatial features.For real-time intensity estimation,multi-task learning acts as an implicit time-series enhancement.The model is designed with a rolling strategy that aims to moderate the long-term dependent decay problem and improve accuracy for short-term intensity predictions.Since multiple tasks are correlated,the loss function of 12 h and 24 h are corrected.After testing on a sample of TCs in the Northwest Pacific,with a 4.48 kt root-mean-square error(RMSE)of 6 h intensity prediction,5.78 kt for 12 h,and 13.94 kt for 24 h,TC records from official agencies are used to assess the validity of TC-Rolling.

Dynamic intelligent prediction approach for landslide displacement based on biological growth models and CNN-LSTM

Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.

A Machine Learning-Based Observational Constraint Correction Method for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction

Seasonal precipitation has always been a key focus of climate prediction.As a dynamic-statistical combined method,the existing observational constraint correction establishes a regression relationship between the numerical model outputs and historical observations,which can partly predict seasonal precipitation.However,solving a nonlinear problem through linear regression is significantly biased.This study implements a nonlinear optimization of an existing observational constrained correction model using a Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)machine learning algorithm based on output from the Beijing National Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)and station observations to improve the prediction of summer precipitation in China.The model was trained using a rolling approach,and LightGBM outperformed Linear Regression(LR),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Categorical Boosting(CatBoost).Using parameter tuning to optimize the machine learning model and predict future summer precipitation using eight different predictors in BCC-CSM,the mean Anomaly Correlation Coefficient(ACC)score in the 2019–22 summer precipitation predictions was 0.17,and the mean Prediction Score(PS)reached 74.The PS score was improved by 7.87%and 6.63%compared with the BCC-CSM and the linear observational constraint approach,respectively.The observational constraint correction prediction strategy with LightGBM significantly and stably improved the prediction of summer precipitation in China compared to the previous linear observational constraint solution,providing a reference for flood control and drought relief during the flood season(summer)in China.

Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based onMulti-Stage Temporal Feature Learning

Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challenges for its extensive incorporation into power grids.Thus,enhancing the precision of PV power prediction is particularly important.Although existing studies have made progress in short-term prediction,issues persist,particularly in the underutilization of temporal features and the neglect of correlations between satellite cloud images and PV power data.These factors hinder improvements in PV power prediction performance.To overcome these challenges,this paper proposes a novel PV power prediction method based on multi-stage temporal feature learning.First,the improved LSTMand SA-ConvLSTMare employed to extract the temporal feature of PV power and the spatial-temporal feature of satellite cloud images,respectively.Subsequently,a novel hybrid attention mechanism is proposed to identify the interplay between the two modalities,enhancing the capacity to focus on the most relevant features.Finally,theTransformermodel is applied to further capture the short-termtemporal patterns and long-term dependencies within multi-modal feature information.The paper also compares the proposed method with various competitive methods.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the competitive methods in terms of accuracy and reliability in short-term PV power prediction.

Rockburst prediction based on multi-featured drilling parameters and extreme tree algorithm for full-section excavated tunnel faces

The suddenness, uncertainty, and randomness of rockbursts directly affect the safety of tunnel construction. The prediction of rockbursts is a fundamental aspect of mitigating or even eliminating rockburst hazards. To address the shortcomings of the current rockburst prediction models, which have a limited number of samples and rely on manual test results as the majority of their input features, this paper proposes rockburst prediction models based on multi-featured drilling parameters of rock drilling jumbo. Firstly, four original drilling parameters, namely hammer pressure (Ph), feed pressure (Pf), rotation pressure (Pr), and feed speed (VP), together with the rockburst grades, were collected from 1093 rockburst cases. Then, a feature expansion investigation was performed based on the four original drilling parameters to establish a drilling parameter feature system and a rockburst prediction database containing 42 features. Furthermore, rockburst prediction models based on multi-featured drilling parameters were developed using the extreme tree (ET) algorithm and Bayesian optimization. The models take drilling parameters as input parameters and rockburst grades as output parameters. The effects of Bayesian optimization and the number of drilling parameter features on the model performance were analyzed using the accuracy, precision, recall and F1 value of the prediction set as the model performance evaluation indices. The results show that the Bayesian optimized model with 42 drilling parameter features as inputs performs best, with an accuracy of 91.89%. Finally, the reliability of the models was validated through field tests.

Risk factors for biometry prediction error by Barrett Universal II intraocular lens formula in Chinese patients

AIM:To investigate the influence of postoperative intraocular lens(IOL)positions on the accuracy of cataract surgery and examine the predictive factors of postoperative biometry prediction errors using the Barrett Universal II(BUII)IOL formula for calculation.METHODS:The prospective study included patients who had undergone cataract surgery performed by a single surgeon from June 2020 to April 2022.The collected data included the best-corrected visual acuity(BCVA),corneal curvature,preoperative and postoperative central anterior chamber depths(ACD),axial length(AXL),IOL power,and refractive error.BUII formula was used to calculate the IOL power.The mean absolute error(MAE)was calculated,and all the participants were divided into two groups accordingly.Independent t-tests were applied to compare the variables between groups.Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influence of age,AXL,corneal curvature,and preoperative and postoperative ACD on MAE.RESULTS:A total of 261 patients were enrolled.The 243(93.1%)and 18(6.9%)had postoperative MAE<1 and>1 D,respectively.The number of females was higher in patients with MAE>1 D(χ^(2)=3.833,P=0.039).The postoperative BCVA(logMAR)of patients with MAE>1 D was significantly worse(t=-2.448;P=0.025).After adjusting for gender in the logistic model,the risk of postoperative refractive errors was higher in patients with a shallow postoperative anterior chamber[odds ratio=0.346;95% confidence interval(CI):0.164,0.730,P=0.005].CONCLUSION:Risk factors for biometry prediction error after cataract surgery include the patient’s sex and postoperative ACD.Patients with a shallow postoperative anterior chamber are prone to have refractive errors.

A robust statistical prediction model for late-summer heavy precipitation days in North China

Recently,heavy precipitation(HP)events have occurred frequently in North China(NC),causing devastating economic losses and human fatalities.However,the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite limited.Combining year-to-year increment(DY)method and sliding correlations,we developed a robust seasonal prediction model for late-summer HP days(HPDs)in NC during 1982–2022,utilizing three independent predictors—February sea surface temperature(SST)in the Indian Ocean(SST_IO),February snow depth over North Asia(SDE_NA),and May melted snow depth in NC(MSDE_NC).The SST_IO anomalies affect NC's precipitation through the Pacific-Japan pattern.The SDE_NA anomalies are associated with East Asian anomalous anticyclone by southeastern propagation of Rossby wave at Eurasia.The MSDE_NC anomalies are followed by vertical motion and moisture anomalies in situ and thereby cause precipitation anomalies.This prediction model can well simulate the variations of the HPDs,with a correlation coefficient(CC)of 0.81(0.65)between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly).The percentage with the same sign for 15 extreme HPDs_anomaly years(PSSE)is 100%.Moreover,in the cross-validation test during 1982–2022,the PSSE for HPDs_anomaly is as high as 100%,along with a low rootmean-square error of 1.14.For independent hindcasts during 2013–2022,the CC between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly)is 0.93(0.83),together with high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(0.82)and agreement index(0.89).Specifically,the predictions are broadly consistent with the observations for 2015,2016,2017,2021,and 2022,reflecting excellent performance of this prediction model of HPDs in NC.

Data driven prediction of fragment velocity distribution under explosive loading conditions

This study presents a machine learning-based method for predicting fragment velocity distribution in warhead fragmentation under explosive loading condition.The fragment resultant velocities are correlated with key design parameters including casing dimensions and detonation positions.The paper details the finite element analysis for fragmentation,the characterizations of the dynamic hardening and fracture models,the generation of comprehensive datasets,and the training of the ANN model.The results show the influence of casing dimensions on fragment velocity distributions,with the tendencies indicating increased resultant velocity with reduced thickness,increased length and diameter.The model's predictive capability is demonstrated through the accurate predictions for both training and testing datasets,showing its potential for the real-time prediction of fragmentation performance.

Enhancing rectal cancer liver metastasis prediction:Magnetic resonance imaging-based radiomics,bias mitigation,and regulatory considerations

In this article,we comment on the article by Long et al published in the recent issue of the World Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology.Rectal cancer patients are at risk for developing metachronous liver metastasis(MLM),yet early prediction remains challenging due to variations in tumor heterogeneity and the limitations of traditional diagnostic methods.Therefore,there is an urgent need for noninvasive techniques to improve patient outcomes.Long et al’s study introduces an innovative magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)-based radiomics model that integrates high-throughput imaging data with clinical variables to predict MLM.The study employed a 7:3 split to generate training and validation datasets.The MLM prediction model was constructed using the training set and subsequently validated on the validation set using area under the curve(AUC)and dollar-cost averaging metrics to assess performance,robustness,and generalizability.By employing advanced algorithms,the model provides a non-invasive solution to assess tumor heterogeneity for better metastasis prediction,enabling early intervention and personalized treatment planning.However,variations in MRI parameters,such as differences in scanning resolutions and protocols across facilities,patient heterogeneity(e.g.,age,comorbidities),and external factors like carcinoembryonic antigen levels introduce biases.Additionally,confounding factors such as diagnostic staging methods and patient comorbidities require further validation and adjustment to ensure accuracy and generalizability.With evolving Food and Drug Administration regulations on machine learning models in healthcare,compliance and careful consideration of these regulatory requirements are essential to ensuring safe and effective implementation of this approach in clinical practice.In the future,clinicians may be able to utilize datadriven,patient-centric artificial intelligence(AI)-enhanced imaging tools integrated with clinical data,which would help improve early detection of MLM and optimize personalized treatment strategies.Combining radiomics,genomics,histological data,and demographic information can significantly enhance the accuracy and precision of predictive models.

Classifying rockburst with confidence:A novel conformal prediction approach

The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst assessment;however,a significant question remains unanswered:How reliable are these models,and at what confidence level are classifications made?Typically,ML models output single rockburst grade even in the face of intricate and out-of-distribution samples,without any associated confidence value.Given the susceptibility of ML models to errors,it becomes imperative to quantify their uncertainty to prevent consequential failures.To address this issue,we propose a conformal prediction(CP)framework built on traditional ML models(extreme gradient boosting and random forest)to generate valid classifications of rockburst while producing a measure of confidence for its output.The proposed framework guarantees marginal coverage and,in most cases,conditional coverage on the test dataset.The CP was evaluated on a rockburst case in the Sanshandao Gold Mine in China,where it achieved high coverage and efficiency at applicable confidence levels.Significantly,the CP identified several“confident”classifications from the traditional ML model as unreliable,necessitating expert verification for informed decision-making.The proposed framework improves the reliability and accuracy of rockburst assessments,with the potential to bolster user confidence.

Prediction model for corrosion rate of low-alloy steels under atmospheric conditions using machine learning algorithms

This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while the corrosion rate as the output.6 dif-ferent ML algorithms were used to construct the proposed model.Through optimization and filtering,the eXtreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost)model exhibited good corrosion rate prediction accuracy.The features of material properties were then transformed into atomic and physical features using the proposed property transformation approach,and the dominant descriptors that affected the corrosion rate were filtered using the recursive feature elimination(RFE)as well as XGBoost methods.The established ML models exhibited better predic-tion performance and generalization ability via property transformation descriptors.In addition,the SHapley additive exPlanations(SHAP)method was applied to analyze the relationship between the descriptors and corrosion rate.The results showed that the property transformation model could effectively help with analyzing the corrosion behavior,thereby significantly improving the generalization ability of corrosion rate prediction models.

A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

Prediction of treatment response to antipsychotic drugs for precision medicine approach to schizophrenia:randomized trials and multiomics analysis

Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack of effective biomarkers.Previous studies have indicated the association between treatment response and genetic and epigenetic factors,but no effective biomarkers have been identified.Hence,further research is imperative to enhance precision medicine in SCZ treatment.Methods:Participants with SCZ were recruited from two randomized trials.The discovery cohort was recruited from the CAPOC trial(n=2307)involved 6 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,Quetiapine,Aripiprazole,Ziprasidone,and Haloperidol/Perphenazine(subsequently equally assigned to one or the other)groups.The external validation cohort was recruited from the CAPEC trial(n=1379),which involved 8 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,and Aripiprazole groups.Additionally,healthy controls(n=275)from the local community were utilized as a genetic/epigenetic reference.The genetic and epigenetic(DNA methylation)risks of SCZ were assessed using the polygenic risk score(PRS)and polymethylation score,respectively.The study also examined the genetic-epigenetic interactions with treatment response through differential methylation analysis,methylation quantitative trait loci,colocalization,and promoteranchored chromatin interaction.Machine learning was used to develop a prediction model for treatment response,which was evaluated for accuracy and clinical benefit using the area under curve(AUC)for classification,R^(2) for regression,and decision curve analysis.Results:Six risk genes for SCZ(LINC01795,DDHD2,SBNO1,KCNG2,SEMA7A,and RUFY1)involved in cortical morphology were identified as having a genetic-epigenetic interaction associated with treatment response.The developed and externally validated prediction model,which incorporated clinical information,PRS,genetic risk score(GRS),and proxy methylation level(proxyDNAm),demonstrated positive benefits for a wide range of patients receiving different APDs,regardless of sex[discovery cohort:AUC=0.874(95%CI 0.867-0.881),R^(2)=0.478;external validation cohort:AUC=0.851(95%CI 0.841-0.861),R^(2)=0.507].Conclusions:This study presents a promising precision medicine approach to evaluate treatment response,which has the potential to aid clinicians in making informed decisions about APD treatment for patients with SCZ.Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry(https://www.chictr.org.cn/),18 Aug 2009 retrospectively registered:CAPOC-ChiCTR-RNC-09000521(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9014),CAPEC-ChiCTRRNC-09000522(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9013).

ST-LSTM-SA:A New Ocean Sound Velocity Field Prediction Model Based on Deep Learning

The scarcity of in-situ ocean observations poses a challenge for real-time information acquisition in the ocean.Among the crucial hydroacoustic environmental parameters,ocean sound velocity exhibits significant spatial and temporal variability and it is highly relevant to oceanic research.In this study,we propose a new data-driven approach,leveraging deep learning techniques,for the prediction of sound velocity fields(SVFs).Our novel spatiotemporal prediction model,STLSTM-SA,combines Spatiotemporal Long Short-Term Memory(ST-LSTM) with a self-attention mechanism to enable accurate and real-time prediction of SVFs.To circumvent the limited amount of observational data,we employ transfer learning by first training the model using reanalysis datasets,followed by fine-tuning it using in-situ analysis data to obtain the final prediction model.By utilizing the historical 12-month SVFs as input,our model predicts the SVFs for the subsequent three months.We compare the performance of five models:Artificial Neural Networks(ANN),Long ShortTerm Memory(LSTM),Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM),ST-LSTM,and our proposed ST-LSTM-SA model in a test experiment spanning 2019 to 2022.Our results demonstrate that the ST-LSTM-SA model significantly improves the prediction accuracy and stability of sound velocity in both temporal and spatial dimensions.The ST-LSTM-SA model not only accurately predicts the ocean sound velocity field(SVF),but also provides valuable insights for spatiotemporal prediction of other oceanic environmental variables.

Product quality prediction based on RBF optimized by firefly algorithm

With the development of information technology,a large number of product quality data in the entire manufacturing process is accumulated,but it is not explored and used effectively.The traditional product quality prediction models have many disadvantages,such as high complexity and low accuracy.To overcome the above problems,we propose an optimized data equalization method to pre-process dataset and design a simple but effective product quality prediction model:radial basis function model optimized by the firefly algorithm with Levy flight mechanism(RBFFALM).First,the new data equalization method is introduced to pre-process the dataset,which reduces the dimension of the data,removes redundant features,and improves the data distribution.Then the RBFFALFM is used to predict product quality.Comprehensive expe riments conducted on real-world product quality datasets validate that the new model RBFFALFM combining with the new data pre-processing method outperforms other previous me thods on predicting product quality.

Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction: Influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors and errors reduction by low pass filter method

In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.

Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.

Ground threat prediction-based path planning of unmanned autonomous helicopter using hybrid enhanced artificial bee colony algorithm

Unmanned autonomous helicopter(UAH)path planning problem is an important component of the UAH mission planning system.Aiming to reduce the influence of non-complete ground threat information on UAH path planning,a ground threat prediction-based path planning method is proposed based on artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm by collaborative thinking strategy.Firstly,a dynamic threat distribution probability model is developed based on the characteristics of typical ground threats.The dynamic no-fly zone of the UAH is simulated and established by calculating the distribution probability of ground threats in real time.Then,a dynamic path planning method for UAH is designed in complex environment based on the real-time prediction of ground threats.By adding the collision warning mechanism to the path planning model,the flight path could be dynamically adjusted according to changing no-fly zones.Furthermore,a hybrid enhanced ABC algorithm is proposed based on collaborative thinking strategy.The proposed algorithm applies the leader-member thinking mechanism to guide the direction of population evolution,and reduces the negative impact of local optimal solutions caused by collaborative learning update strategy,which makes the optimization performance of ABC algorithm more controllable and efficient.Finally,simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed ground threat prediction path planning method.