Roles of Financial Innovation and Information Technology:Lessons from US Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis and Its Implications for China

The mortgage loan has evolved from a local lending instrument into a major global security and its role is unparallel to other financial instruments in the process of financial globalization. This paper explains how technology and financial innovation transformed the mortgage loan from a local security into a premier global security traded worldwide. It examines the fundamental flaws of this process and why it does not work in regards to mortgage lending and the re-securitization products that were created through financial innovation. The findings show that regulation was unable to keep pace with financial innovation, which created an environment where actors in the financial service sector were able to behave geographically irresponsibly by using information asymmetries to their advantage by par- ticipating in moral hazard activities and engaging in other immoral and unethical business practices that were centered around localized geography, which ultimately contributed to the global financial crisis. It also examines the roll of financial innovation in regard to the Lehman Brothers Mini-Bond in Hung and its role as a driving force behind China＇s newly emerging shadow banking sector. It concludes with a policy recommendation and its implication for China＇s continued economic development.

Predictive Modeling and Expectable Loss Analysis for Borrower Defaults of Mortgage Loans

Home mortgage loan lending firms are exposed to many business risks.This paper focuses on the mortgage loan borrower risks and proposes a prospective loss analysis approach in regard to loan repayment defaults of borrowers.For this purpose,a predictive modeling is presented in three stages.In the first stage,occurrence of borrower defaults in a mortgage loans portfolio is modeled through the generalized linear models(GLMs)type regressions for which we specify a logistic distribution for default events.The second stage of modeling develops a survival analysis in order to estimate survival probability and hazard rate functions for individual loans.Ultimately,an expectable loss amount model is presented in the third stage as a function of conditional survival probabilities and corresponding hazard rates at loan levels.Throughout all modeling stages,a large and real data set is used as an empirical analysis case by which detailed interpretations and practical implications of the obtained results are stated.

A Review of Rural Policy-favored Petty Loan Forest Property Certificate Mortgage

Studying petty loan forestry property mortgage mode has significant practical meaning in fund-raising and income-increasing in the forest- agriculture industry,restructuring and expanding the industry as well as setting up scientific industrial public policies. On the basis of literature analysis and field research data,this paper will classify and analyze research papers studying in forestry,property mortgage,and therefore draws conclusions on relevant concepts of petty loan forestry property mortgage,economics and property rights theory as well. At present,the studies of petty loan forestry property mortgage are more practical that are lack of an overall theoretical framework. Considering China's real situation of petty loan forestry property mortgage mode,we have investigated some foreign cases in operating forestry property mortgage systemically and some challenges and difficulties confronted by stakeholders in real cases. Therefore,we put forward that in the current period the fund-raising in forestry industry should focus on establishing and improving an overall rural petty loan forestry property mortgage mode.

Analysis of Risks in the Individual Housing Mortgage Loan with Game Theory

Through using game theory,a game model of lendingand borrowing money between banks and individuals isestablished to explain how the risks come into being and are transferred in the dynamic point of view.Some sug-gestions about how to avoid the risks are proposed.

Mortgage of Land Management Right in the Rural Area Under the Policy Context

The aim of this study is to explore the necessity to consider the specialty of policy context in ethnic minority area during the policymaking process.Case analysis is applied to study the policy context in microscopic aspect.The information came from two sources:questionnaires or phone calls,and related documents.Study suggested that the mortgage of land management lies in the negligence of temporal dynamic balance when it comes to the mastering of policy context.Optimal plan of method design was given in the end of this paper.

＂Cold Shoulder＂ Experience of Farmland Property Right Mortgage--Based on the questionnaire of 1250 households in Jiangxi Province

Rural households field questionnaire survey found that current promotion pilot of agricultural property mortgage loan policy suffered the "cold shoulder" experience, and the analysis on the survey found that agricultural property mortgage loan pilot policy had significant effect on the economy in Jiangxi, which still had improvement space. Loan institutions obviously lack enough trust on the policy, leading in general reluctance to lending, and farmers suffered "loan embarrassing", trust loss, more loan difficulty and loan disdain. Therefore, it suggested that the mortgage policy for rural land property rights should be implemented according to different local conditions, so as to enhance the useful decisions of CPC Central Committee on financial benefits of farmland consolidation results.

两权抵押贷款对农户收入分配的影响研究

完善金融体系是优化收入分配结构的重要途径,但人们缺乏对农村金融改革在农户收入分配中作用的理解。基于2005—2020年的县域面板数据,本文使用渐进双重差分法检验了农村土地承包经营权和农民住房财产权抵押贷款对农户收入及城乡收入差距的影响。研究发现:第一,农村土地承包经营权和农民住房财产权抵押贷款试点实施增加了农户收入,缩小了城乡收入差距;第二,农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款对农户收入分配的优化作用比农民住房财产权抵押贷款更加有效;第三,农村土地承包经营权和农民住房财产权抵押贷款对农户收入分配的优化作用主要通过促进农村经济增长、增加农户信贷可得性及促进农村劳动力流动来实现。上述研究结论揭示出通过农村金融改革助力共同富裕的必要性,即需要推动农村土地承包经营权和农民住房财产权抵押贷款的农村金融改革来改善农户收入分配。

湖南省权益类森林生态产品价值实现的问题与对策

权益类森林生态产品是一类需要政府赋权和确权并通过市场实现生态价值的生态产品,具有不完全的排他性和竞争性特征,依靠政府与市场共同作用实现生态价值。湖南省探索开发了林业碳汇项目、集体林权、林权抵押贷款等三种权益类森林生态产品,取得了积极成效,但依然在运行机制、配套政策等方面存在亟待解决的问题。政府应当采取优化林业碳汇项目开发、推动集体林权交易监管协同、打通林权抵押贷款通道等举措,推动权益类森林生态产品价值实现。

住房反向抵押模式的主体多元化与政府的作用

老年人住房反向抵押养老保险作为一项新型的养老保险兼具保险和抵押贷款的双重属性,保险公司在保险法律关系中具有保险人、贷款人及抵押权人三重主体身份。这种保险与抵押、借贷法律关系的主体合一导致风险叠加,需重新选择住房反向抵押这一自助养老的主体模式,将基础法律关系由保险合同转化为抵押、借款合同,从而化解住房反向抵押中借贷双方的风险。将仅限双方主体参与的住房反向抵押保险模式改为多元主体参与的住房反向抵押“贷款+保险”模式,由商业银行作为住房反向抵押的贷款主体;保险公司负责为借贷双方承保;政府在监督与政策制定方面发挥规范引导作用,采取金融监管及税费优惠予以支持和保障。

房地产信贷与住房可支付性

本文使用2010—2022年中国135个城市房地产信贷、房价、房租以及家庭收入与消费数据,考察房地产信贷对住房可支付性影响。实证研究发现,城市房地产开发贷款占比越高,城市房价收入比越低;城市住房抵押贷款占比越高,城市房价收入比与房租收入比越高;房地产信贷对房价可支付性的影响大于房租可支付性;房地产开发贷款提高城市中等收入者住房可支付性,但住房抵押贷款降低城市中等收入者住房可支付性。因此,住房信贷政策应主要解决城市中等收入者房价可支付问题而非房租可支付问题。

林权抵押贷款制度环境、现实困境与治理路径——基于福建三明集体林权改革试验区的调研

在正式制度与非正式制度环境下,林权抵押贷款受人格化财产特性及其信贷交易特殊性的影响较大。基于福建三明集体林权改革试验区的调研显示,林权抵押贷款发展面临的现实困境主要源于禀赋效应和信息不对称,即禀赋效应抑制林权抵押贷款的信贷需求,信息不对称抑制林权抵押贷款的有效供给。应构建集体林区良好的普惠林业金融生态环境,着重发挥具有乡村权威的村干部“类金融中介”的比较优势,有效培育与挖掘林权抵押贷款的潜在需求,以缓解林权抵押贷款的禀赋效应和信息不对称问题,最大限度地提升林业金融配置效率,助推林区乡村振兴。

我国林权收储担保模式比较与应用推广策略

当前我国林权抵押贷款正处于发展的关键时期,林权收储担保对于推进林权抵押贷款业务具有重要价值。本文主要通过选取具有代表性的四种林权收储模式进行比较分析,进而得出每种模式的适用条件以及应用推广策略。研究表明:当地的森林资源发展状况、林地权属情况、林业产业发展水平、林权抵押贷款规模都是影响林权收储担保模式选择的重要因素,建议应当从林权收储担保机构建设、收储担保业务模式创新、收储担保机构配套措施以及林权收储担保补助政策等不同方面促进我国林权收储担保工作的发展。

农村土地经营权抵押贷款对农民能力性收入的影响研究——来自甘肃省农地试点的证据

金融和农村存在壁垒加大了中国城乡收入差距,阻碍着共同富裕的实现。2016年中国开始农村土地经营权抵押试点建设,试点的配套政策对农民增收产生重要影响。本研究以甘肃省农村土地经营权抵押贷款试点为例,选取2012—2020年甘肃省84个区县的面板数据,借助倾向匹配双重差分模型分析农村土地经营权抵押贷款对所在区县农民能力性收入的影响。结果显示:第一,农地试点建设会显著提高农民的工资性收入,且该正向效应是长期持续的;第二,该政策通过影响农民及涉农企业减少教育文化娱乐支出,将更多资金用于农业科技水平提升,以实现农民的工资性收入增长;第三,行政区划不同并不会引起该政策对农民的工资性收入影响的明显差异。基于此,各地应持续推进农村土地经营权抵押贷款试点及后续工作稳步进行,鼓励和扶持农民进行第二、第三产业经营。

农村土地经营权抵押贷款的探索与实践——基于江苏省泗洪县的研究

长期以来,农村地区特别是经济欠发达地区融资难现象一直存在。随着农村土地“三权分置”改革的深入推进,放活农村土地经营权成为推进农业适度规模经营、加快机械化数字化农业发展、推动乡村振兴的有效抓手,同时也成为农村地区拓宽抵押融资的一种渠道。本研究以泗洪县为例,回顾了泗洪县2016—2022年承担国家农村土地经营权抵押贷款试点的改革历程,从机制建设、政府支持、价值评估、贷款管理、风险处置等视角总结主要做法与成效,从金融机构参与、主体申贷意愿、贷款融资额度、价值评估体系等方面分析了存在的不足,从推广线上线下贷款组合贷、加强信用体系建设、完善价值评估及抵押物处置、加强宣传营造良好金融环境等方面提出对策建议,倡导更多科技型普惠金融“活水”注入乡村,加快农业农村现代化。

农户视角下的土地经营权抵押贷款影响因素分析——以金寨县为例

以安徽省六安市金寨县为例,构建二元Logistic回归模型,从农户信贷需求视角分析土地经营权抵押贷款政策推进的影响因素。研究表明:个体状况方面,农户受教育程度、社会关系与农户抵押贷款意愿成正比,家庭劳动力规模、经营类型与农户抵押贷款意愿成反比;资产状况方面,家庭年收入、收入构成占比与农户抵押贷款意愿成反比;认知状况方面,农户对政策法规的了解程度越高,其贷款意愿就越高。提出了建议:完善农村社会保障体系建设,消除农户后顾之忧;完善农村土地流转市场,搭建农村土地流转平台,降低抵押物变现处置难度;强化对农村土地经营权抵押贷款的监管指导,最大限度发挥贷款资金促农增收作用。

林权抵押贷款信贷配给的影响因素及其异质性分析——基于福建省农户调研数据的研究

基于福建省集体林区785户样本的调研数据,本文对林权抵押贷款信贷配给的影响因素及异质性农户的差异进行分析,研究结论为:(1)林权抵押贷款的信贷配给程度严重,从有效需求样本看,遭受配给程度高达75.94%,小农户遭受配给程度高于适度规模农户。(2)林权抵押贷款供给型配给主要受抵押品特征、声誉资本、经济资本特征以及地区市场政策方面的影响;需求型配给主要受声誉资本、交易成本、风险补偿成本、地区市场政策方面的影响。(3)农户遭受配给的影响因素存在显著差异。抵押品特征是造成农户供给型配给差异的主要因素,小农户供给型配给主要受林地面积的影响,适度规模农户主要受林权证、树种类型的影响。第三方组织的参与发挥对抵押品的补充功能,对小农户供给型配给的缓解更显著。风险补偿变量对小农户需求型配给的影响较规模农户更显著。地区变量对小农户各类配给的影响均更显著。

中国购房者集体断供:房屋预售模式的风险失衡及其法律应对

2022年伊始,多地因开发商资金链断裂、楼盘项目停工,引发购房者集体断供,房屋预售模式负面效应凸显。预售模式的设计初衷是优先解决房企的融资问题,并未充分斟酌房企、银行与购房者的风险分担。期房交易中,由于标的物的非现实性和合同履行的非即时性,房企利用其在交易信息、经济实力、商谈能力等方面的优势,逃避或转移部分预售风险,使得房屋预售模式异化为购房者单边风险负担。为此,应构建开发商、银行、购房者三方公平合理的风险共担机制。具体措施包括:探索预售资金的多元监管机制,完善预售资金的信息披露制度;完善物权期待权保护体系,优先保护善意购房者的利益;重塑购房者与银行之间的法律关系为Mortgage模式,若购房者因房屋未交付而选择断供,在法律上可不受后续还款义务的约束;增加银行与房企之间的担保约定,将购房者还贷意愿与房企的履约能力绑定;为限制房企将预售款获利挪用,应增加房企偿债能力约定、引入违约责任保险或违约惩罚赔偿。

林权抵押贷款信贷配给的产生机制、程度识别与路径优化

在乡村振兴战略视野下,对集体林区福建省林权抵押贷款展开实地调研,采用DEM和描述性统计相结合的方法,深入诠释农户林权抵押贷款信贷配给类型和产生机制,进而对信贷配给展开识别与衡量。结果表明:农户因对林权抵押政策认知偏差、禀赋效应、交易费用高昂而面临新的需求型信贷配给;因信息不对称,林地流转市场具有薄市场约束,无法达到银行对林权抵押品的预期价值及抵押物难以有效处置导致信贷风险较高使得农户面临供给型信贷配给;农户林权抵押贷款需求型信贷配给较为严峻。为了实现集体林区福建省现代林业产业振兴,亟须强化制度创新、提高农户金融素养水平、实现多部门数据整合与信用信息共建共享、最大限度释缓集体林区农户需求型信贷配给的路径,以林业金融现代化助推乡村振兴。

农地抵押融资缓解农户收入不平等了吗?——兼议农业保险和农业补贴的协同作用

在扎实推进共同富裕背景下,如何深化农地产权制度改革并有效发挥农业支持政策协同作用的问题亟待破解。基于相对剥夺视角考察农户内部收入差距,依据四川、重庆和宁夏共886户农户调查数据,实证探究农地抵押融资可得性对农户收入不平等的影响效应、作用机制及群体异质性,揭示农业保险与农业补贴的协同作用。研究证实,获批农地抵押贷款有效降低了农户内部收入不平等程度。机制研究表明:获批农地抵押贷款可通过促进土地转入和改善家庭消费水平,进而缩小农户收入不平等;政策性农业保险和农业补贴虽均对缓解农户收入不平等产生积极效果,但与农地抵押融资并未产生正向协同作用。异质性分析发现,农地抵押贷款的收入不平等缓解效应对劳动力禀赋较薄弱、经营规模较大、职业类型为新型农业经营主体的农户及经济发展较为滞后的村庄更为明显。因此,以深化农地产权制度改革助力实现农民共同富裕,应不断优化农地抵押贷款产品供给、激活财政金融支农政策协同作用、增强支农惠农政策包容性。

农地经营权抵押贷款政策对农户增收效应的影响研究——基于多时点DID的实证

全面推进乡村振兴要求把增加农民收入作为中心任务,而农地经营权抵押贷款增加了农户财产处置决策的选择。采用2011—2020年我国30个省区市的面板数据,利用多时点DID方法实证研究发现,农地经营权抵押贷款政策能够提升农户收入,相关法律颁布后影响更为明显,通过了平行趋势、安慰剂等稳健性检验,且农地经营权抵押贷款政策颁布较早地区农户的政策增收效应更为明显。从影响机制看,农地经营权抵押贷款政策通过投资水平、信贷水平和非农就业水平的中介机制,促进了农户增收,缩小了农户之间的收入差距,有助于实现农村共同富裕。从农户异质性结果看,教育培训多的农户、粮食作物种植农户、土地相对规模大的农户受到政策带来的增收效应更加明显。因此,我国各地应稳定土地承包权,积极响应农地经营权抵押贷款政策,因地制宜鼓励农户实现非农就业,参与土地经营权抵押,实现农业生产经营规模化,拓宽农户增收渠道。