Fair Valuation Issues and the Subprime Mortgage Debacle： Could Generally Accepted Accounting Principles Underlying the Historical Cost Method Have Prevented the Crisis？

There are three primary methodologies employed to determine real estate value in the appraisal industry： the cost approach, the sales approach and the income approach. The definition of market value is defined as： ＂a type of value, stated as an opinion that includes a set of assumptions concerning the market＂. Unfortunately, untrained and unlicensed appraisers provided opinions using primarily the sales approach or market data approach and virtually ignored the other two methodologies. The ensuing game of ＂Can You Top This＂ resulted in creating an out-of-control real estate market driven by unregulated fiduciaries as appraisers.

Interest Rate, Unemployment Rate, and Housing Market in U.S.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships among the variables, and how interest rate, unemployment, stock market, and consumer confidence affect housing market index （HM1） in the U.S.. We construct vector autoregression （VAR） model with variables such as unemployment rate （UMR）, consumer confidence index （CCI）, the Dow Jones industrial index （DJI）, and interest rate, etc., to forecast the HMI. Our model and analysis show that U.S. HMI very sensitive to unemployment and interest rates. Every 1% moves in unemployment and interest rates will result in HMI to move in the opposite direction by 11.7% and 11.4% respectively. However, changes in CCI and stock mark index have only minor impacts on HMI--0.49% and 0.3%, changes for 1% fluctuation in CCI and DJI. Our research also shows that relationships among these variables associated with housing market are very stable in the long run.

Global Financial Crisis： Systemic Failure and the Underlying Knowledge Gap

Recently, global financial crisis or meltdown rocked the international financial market. This havoc was the result of the reckless use of financial derivatives that received spontaneous patronization from the financial whiz, but it is strange to discover that those proponents of market economy embarked on policy that was purely Keynesian in principle. The episode started in August 2007 with the collapse of subprime mortgage market and reached its climax during August 2008. Central banks in many countries of the western world intervened in the market to pump additional fund to give buoyancy in the credit market. The crisis encapsulated with the queer idea of financial instruments and multiple origins related to subprime mortgage left its trail in both developed and developing countries. Thus, an elaborate analysis of the causal link among various innovative instruments highlighting a mismatch between academic doctrine and real-life perspective and the inadequacy of the institutional arrangements supposed to tame the volatility of the market may be a useful guide to financial analysts and policy planners. The purpose of this paper is to highlight systemic gaps in the meltdown and redefine the contour of macroeconomics most appropriate to weather such catastrophe in the future.

Why China Should Invest Its Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Major US Banks

The subprime mortgage crisis and the resultant inflationary monetary policy in the USA have left the Chinese economy subject to four risks in particular. First, China＇s exports to the USA might continue to decline. Second in the medium term, the higher US inflation rate will lead to a weak dollar, which will negatively affect China＇s exports. Third in the long term, when the US Federal Reserve decreases money supply to control inflation, the US economy might enter another recession, hurting China ＂s exports further. Fourth, China＇s foreign exchange reserve assets might suffer heavy losses when the US inflation rate rises. Conventional foreign exchange investment strategies are insufficient for dealing with these four risks. Investment by China in the major US banks is suggested in the present paper. This strategy would mitigate if not eliminate all four risks. China could gain considerable financial returns on investments with only moderate risk.