Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method for Multi-Component System Considering Maintenance:Subsea Christmas Tree System as A Case Study

Maintenance is an important technical measure to maintain and restore the performance status of equipment and ensure the safety of the production process in industrial production,and is an indispensable part of prediction and health management.However,most of the existing remaining useful life(RUL)prediction methods assume that there is no maintenance or only perfect maintenance during the whole life cycle;thus,the predicted RUL value of the system is obviously lower than its actual operating value.The complex environment of the system further increases the difficulty of maintenance,and its maintenance nodes and maintenance degree are limited by the construction period and working conditions,which increases the difficulty of RUL prediction.An RUL prediction method for a multi-omponent system based on the Wiener process considering maintenance is proposed.The performance degradation model of components is established by a dynamic Bayesian network as the initial model,which solves the uncertainty of insufficient data problems.Based on the experience of experts,the degree of degradation is divided according to Poisson process simulation random failure,and different maintenance strategies are used to estimate a variety of condition maintenance factors.An example of a subsea tree system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Reliability Analysis Method of a Control System for Subsea All-Electric Christmas Tree

The subsea all-electric Christmas tree(XT) is a key equipment in subsea production systems.Once it fails,the marine environment will be seriously polluted.Therefore,strict reliability analysis and measures to improve reliability must be performed before a subsea all-electric XT is launched;such measures are crucial to subsea safe production.A fault-tolerant control system was developed in this paper to improve the reliability of XT.A dual-factor degradation model for electrical control system components was proposed to improve the evaluation accuracy,and the reliability of the control system was analyzed based on the Markov model.The influences of the common cause failure and the failure rate in key components on the reliability and availability of the control system were studied.The impacts of mean time to repair and incomplete repair strategy on the availability of the control system were also investigated.Research results show the key factors that affect system reliability,and a specific method to improve the reliability and availability of the control system was given.This reliability analysis method for the control system could be applied to general all-electric subsea control systems to guide their safe production.

Resin Plug Application on Subsea Wells as A Suspension Barrier

A subsea wellhead equipped with obsolete vertical Christmas tree needs to be suspended for subsea tree recovery and subsequently to be permanently abandoned. Due to obsolete Christmas tree design combined with tubing inaccessibility issue,conventional subsea intervention method for setting downhole mechanical plug barriers with a semisubmersible rig or a riserless light well intervention vessel is not feasible to suspend the well. Attempt was made to suspend the well from a riserless light well intervention vessel by setting tubing mechanical plugs in 2017,but the mandrel of the tree running tool (TRT) was sheared off accidently while landing the TRT&subsea intervention lubricator (SIL) on the subsea tree. Due to resin’s superior mechanical and rheological properties,resin was evaluated as a well suspension material to create a suspension barrier. Resin plug was deployed successfully from a dive support vessel (DSV) across the perforations to allow the tree removal at cost effective manner. Resin plugging demonstrates a new approach at well P&A area.