Time-lagged Effects of the Spring Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau on Summer Precipitation in Northeast China during 1961–2020:Role of Soil Moisture

The spring atmospheric heat source(AHS)over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has been suggested to affect the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation over South China.However,its influence on the summer precipitation in Northeast China(NEC)remains unknown.The connection between spring TP AHS and subsequent summer precipitation over NEC from 1961 to 2020 is analyzed in this study.Results illustrate that stronger spring TP AHS can enhance subsequent summer NEC precipitation,and higher soil moisture in the Yellow River Valley-North China region(YRVNC)acts as a bridge.During spring,the strong TP AHS could strengthen the transportation of water vapor to East China and lead to excessive rainfall in the YRVNC.Thus,soil moisture increases,which regulates local thermal conditions by decreasing local surface skin temperature and sensible heat.Owing to the memory of soil moisture,the lower spring sensible heat over the YRVNC can last until mid-summer,decrease the land–sea thermal contrast,and weaken the southerly winds over the East Asia–western Pacific region and convective activities over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific.This modulates the East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern,which leads to a cyclonic anomaly and excessive summer precipitation over NEC.

Interdecadal variability of summer precipitation in the Three River Source Region: Influences of SST and zonal shifts of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet

Summer precipitation in the Three Rivers Source Region(TRSR)of China is vital for the headwaters of the Yellow,Yangtze,and Lancang rivers and exhibits significant interdecadal variability.This study investigates the influence of the East Asian westerly jet(EAWJ)on TRSR rainfall.A strong correlation is found between TRSR summer precipitation and the Jet Zonal Position Index(JZPI)of the EAWJ from 1961 to 2019(R=0.619,p<0.01).During periods when a positive JZPI indicates a westward shift in the EAWJ,enhanced water vapor anomalies,warmer air,and low-level convergence anomalies contribute to increased TRSR summer precipitation.Using empirical orthogonal function and regression analyses,this research identifies the influence of large-scale circulation anomalies associated with the Atlantic–Eurasian teleconnection(AEA)from the North Atlantic(NA).The interdecadal variability between the NA and central tropical Pacific(CTP)significantly affects TRSR precipitation.This influence is mediated through the AEA via a Rossby wave train extending eastward along the EAWJ,and another south of 45°N.Moreover,the NA–CTP Opposite Phase Index(OPI),which quantifies the difference between the summer mean sea surface temperatures of the NA and the CTP,is identified as a critical factor in modulating the strength of this teleconnection and influencing the zonal position of the EAWJ.

Differences in Precipitation and Related Wind Dynamics and Moisture and Heat Features in Separate Areas of the South China Sea before and after Summer Monsoon Onset

Using surface and balloon-sounding measurements, satellite retrievals, and ERA5 reanalysis during 2011–20, this study compares the precipitation and related wind dynamics, moisture and heat features in different areas of the South China Sea(SCS) before and after SCS summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO). The rainy sea around Dongsha(hereafter simply referred to as Dongsha) near the north coast, and the rainless sea around Xisha(hereafter simply referred to as Xisha) in the western SCS, are selected as two typical research subregions. It is found that Dongsha, rather than Xisha, has an earlier and greater increase in precipitation after SCSSMO under the combined effect of strong low-level southwesterly winds, coastal terrain blocking and lifting, and northern cold air. When the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds enhance and advance northward, accompanied by strengthened moisture flux, there is a strong convergence of wind and moisture in Dongsha due to a sudden deceleration and rear-end collision of wind by coastal terrain blocking. Moist and warm advection over Dongsha enhances early and deepens up to 200 h Pa in association with the strengthened upward motion after SCSSMO, thereby providing ample moisture and heat to form strong precipitation. However, when the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds weaken and retreat southward, Xisha is located in a wind-break area where strong convergence and upward motion centers move in. The vertical moistening and heating by advection in Xisha enhance later and appear far weaker compared to that in Dongsha, consistent with later and weaker precipitation.

Analysis of Changing Trend of Summer Precipitation in North China

Based on the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the precipitation dataset of the U.S.Climate Prediction Center(CPC),the changing trend of summer precipitation in North China(35°-40°N,110°-125°E)during 1979-2020 was studied.By calculating the monthly climatic precipitation in North China,it is found that precipitation was mainly distributed from June to August,so the trend of precipitation in North China from June to August was mainly analyzed.Firstly,the five-point moving average of regional mean precipitation in North China from June to August during 1979-2020 was conducted.It is found that the fitting curve of the five-point sliding average was basically consistent with the changing trend of regional precipitation,and it showed a certain upward trend.Secondly,the cumulative anomaly of regional average summer precipitation in North China showed a significant upward trend after 2005,which was similar to the moving average result,indicating that the precipitation in the later period increased compared with the earlier period.The changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years was analyzed,and the results show that precipitation showed a significant increasing trend in most areas of North China,so that regional average precipitation also tended to increase significantly.By comparing the precipitation in the past five years(2016-2020)and the last 36 years(1979-2015),it is found that the increase of summer precipitation in North China was more obvious,so the reasons for the increase in precipitation were further analyzed.Since the occurrence of precipitation requires favorable thermal dynamic conditions,the one-dimensional linear regression of water vapor content at 850 hPa and meridional wind speed was conduced,and it is found that the two variables tended to increase obviously,which was consistent with the increasing trend of precipitation.Seen from both the results of regional average and the spatial distribution of trends,the lower atmospheric water vapor content and wind speed showed a significant positive trend,which led to the increase of summer precipitation.Therefore,it can be concluded that there was a certain changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years,which can provide certain reference for the future forecast of summer precipitation in North China.

Multi-decadal Changes of the Impact of El Niño Events on Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation

Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has an important effect on the water supply and demand of the downstream population.Involving recent climate change,the multi-decadal variations of the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events on regional climate were observed.In this work,the authors investigated the changes in summer precipitation over TP during 1950-2019.At the multi-decadal scale,the authors found that the inhabiting impact of El Niño events on the TP summer precipitation has strengthened since the late 1970s.The main factor contributing to this phenomenon is the significant amplification in the decadal amplitude of El Niño during 1978-2019 accompanied by a discernible escalation in the frequency of El Niño events.This phenomenon induces anomalous perturbations in sea surface temperatures(SST)within the tropical Indo-Pacific region,consequently weakening the atmospheric vapor transport from the western Pacific to the TP.Additionally,conspicuous anomalies in subsidence motion are observed longitudinally and latitudinally across the TP which significantly contributes to a curtailed supply of atmospheric moisture.These results bear profound implications for the multi-decadal prediction of the TP climate.

Enhanced Seasonal Predictability of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula for Eastern China Summer Precipitation under Non-ENSO Conditions

Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China is closely linked to the East Asian monsoon circulation,which is largely affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).In this study,results show that spring soil moisture(SM)over the Indo-China peninsula(ICP)could be a reliable seasonal predictor for eastern China summer precipitation under non-ENSO conditions.When springtime SM anomalies are present over the ICP,they trigger a structured response in summertime precipitation over most of eastern China.The resultant south-to-north,tri-polar configuration of precipitation anomalies has a tendency to yield increased(decreased)precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and decreased(increased)in South and North China with a drier(wetter)spring soil condition in the ICP.The analyses show that ENSO exerts a powerful control on the East Asian circulation system in the ENSO-decaying summer.In the case of ENSO forcing,the seasonal predictability of the ICP spring SM for eastern China summer precipitation is suppressed.However,in the absence of the influence of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies from the preceding winter,the SM anomalies over the ICP induce abnormal local heating and a consequent geopotential height response owing to its sustained control on local temperature,which could,in turn,lead to abnormal eastern China summer precipitation by affecting the East Asian summer monsoon circulation.The present findings provide a better understanding of the complexity of summer climate predictability over eastern China,which is of potential significance for improving the livelihood of the people.

Moisture Sources and Their Contributions to Summer Precipitation in the East of Southwest China

Complex topography,special geographical location and sea-land-air interactions lead to high interannual variability of summer precipitation in the east of Southwest China(ESWC).However,the contributions,influencing factors and mechanisms of remote and local evaporation remain to be further investigated.Using clustering analysis and Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory version 5 model,we analyze the contributions of remote moisture transport and local evaporation to summer precipitation in the ESWC and their causes.There are mainly five remote moisture channels in the ESWC,namely the Arabian Sea channel,Bay of Bengal channel,western Pacific channel,Northwest channel 1 and Northwest channel 2.Among the five channels,the western Pacific channel has the largest number of trajectories,while the Bay of Bengal channel has the largest contribution rate of specific humidity(33.33%)and moisture flux(33.14%).The amount of regional average precipitation is close to that of the precipitation caused by remote moisture transport,and both are considerably greater than the rainfall amount caused by local evaporation.However,on interannual time scales,precipitation recirculation rates are negatively correlated to regional average precipitation and precipitation caused by remote moisture transport but are consistent with that caused by local evaporation.An apparent"+-+"wave train can be found on the height anomaly field in East Asia,and the sea surface temperature anomalies are positive in the equatorial Middle-East Pacific,the South China Sea,the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.These phenomena cause southwest-northeast moisture transport with strong updrafts,thereby resulting in more precipitation in the ESWC.

U-Net: A deep-learning method for improving summer precipitation forecasts in China

本研究应用了名为U-Net的深度学习方法来提高中国夏季(6–8月)降水的预报技能,预报时段为1981–2020年,预报提前期为一个月.将位势高度场,土壤湿度,海平面气压,海表面温度,海洋盐度和青藏高原积雪等变量作为模型输入,本文对美国NCAR气候预报系统第2版(CFSv2)的季节性预报结果进行了修正.结果显示,在验证集和测试集上,U-Net平均将原CFSv2预测的均方根误差分别减少了49.7%和42.7%.预报结果改善最大的地区是中国的西北,西南和东南地区.然而,同号率和时空相关系数没有得到明显改善,但仍与CFSv2的预测技巧持平.敏感性实验表明,土壤湿度是预测中国夏季降雨的最关键因素,其次是位势高度场.本研究显示了U-Net模型在训练小样本数据集方面的优势,为我国汛期季节性降雨预测提供了一种有效的深度学习方法.

Contribution of external forcing to summer precipitation trends over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Southwest China

在过去的60年中,全球气候经历了快速变暖和短暂的变暖停滞,而中国的区域降水也经历了多样而复杂的变化.本文分析了1961年至2014年外强迫因子对青藏高原和中国西南地区夏季降水趋势的影响.观测数据显示,青藏高原的夏季降水呈增加趋势,而中国西南地区的夏季降水呈减少趋势,这两个相邻地区的夏季降水变化趋势相反.利用CMIP6数据,本文研究了不同外强迫因子对两个区域夏季降水趋势的影响.结果表明,温室气体对青藏高原夏季降水的增加具有显著影响,而气溶胶在中国西南地区夏季降水减少中起主要作用。

Influence of three types of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on summer precipitation over the Yangtze River Valley

本文研究了三种来源于印度洋的北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)对长江中下游地区降水的影响.结果表明,在所有BSISO类型中水汽辐合对降水异常的贡献最大.在经典型中,伴随着自副热带西太平洋向西北太平洋传播的正(负)对流异常的气旋(反气旋)使得降水在-2(-1至3)侯减少(增加).在向东扩展型中,由于在印度洋的正(负)对流异常激发的遥响应在西北太平洋引起反气旋(气旋),降水在-2至0(1至3)侯增加(减少).在向北偶极子型中,由于伴随着正(负)对流异常的气旋(反气旋)从中国南海移动到西北太平洋,降水在-2至0(1至3)侯减少(增加).

Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with Precipitation of China in Recent 111 Years

Based on the monthly average SLP data in the northern hemisphere from 1899 to 2009, East Asian summer monsoon intensity index in recent 111 years was calculated, and the interdecadal and interannual variation characteristics of East Asian summer monsoon were analyzed. The results showed that East Asian summer monsoon in the 1920s was the strongest. The intensity of East Asian summer monsoon after the middle period of the 1980s presented weakened trend. It was the weakest in the early 21st century. Morlet wavelet analysis found that the interdecadal and interannual variations of East Asian summer monsoon had quasi-10-year and quasi-2-year significance periods. The interannual variation of precipitation in the east of China closely related to intensity variation of East Asian summer monsoon. In strong （weak） East Asian summer monsoon year, the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River was less （more） than that in common year, while the rainfall in North China was more （less） than that in common year. The weakening of East Asian summer monsoon was an important reason for that it was rainless （drought） in North China and rainy （flood） in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River after the middle period of the 1980s.

The Singular Value Decomposition Analysis between Summer Precipitation in the Dongting Lake Region and the Global Sea Surface Temperature

By dint of the summer precipitation data from 21 stations in the Dongting Lake region during 1960-2008 and the sea surface temperature(SST) data from NOAA,the spatial and temporal distributions of summer precipitation and their correlations with SST are analyzed.The coupling relationship between the anomalous distribution in summer precipitation and the variation of SST has between studied with the Singular Value Decomposition(SVD) analysis.The increase or decrease of summer precipitation in the Dongting Lake region is closely associated with the SST anomalies in three key regions.The variation of SST in the three key regions has been proved to be a significant previous signal to anomaly of summer rainfall in Dongting region.

Preliminary Studies on Summer Precipitation Patterns in China

[Objective] Study on the spatial distribution of summer precipitation patterns and interannual and interdecadal variability. [Method] The summer precipitation patterns were obtained from standard field of summer precipitation data for 160 observation stations in China during 1951 -2000 by the utilization of empirical orthogonal function （EOF）, and characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variability were analyzed. [Result] The summer precipitation mainly distributes in eastern part of China; The 1 st, 2nd and 3rd EOF modes of spatial distribution are especially remarkable as well consistent with the results of previous reports about three rainfall patterns from analysis on the percentages of precipitation anomaly of summer. [Conclusion] There exists interannual and interdecadal variability for summer precipitation in China.

Indicative Significance of ENSO for Summer Precipitation in Liaoning Province

Based on the summer precipitation data from 53 stations in Liaoning Province and sea surface temperature(SST) data of Hadley Center in 1961-2009,the decadal variation of the relationship between summer precipitation and SST over Nino3 oceanic regions in the previous autumn was studied.The results showed that their correlation was decreased obviously in recent 30 years.In 1961-1974,summer rainfall could be forecasted according to the SST anomaly over Nino3 oceanic regions in the previous autumn,and there were above 25 stations with the sign accuracy of over 66.7%.However,there were only five stations with the same accuracy during 1980-2009.From 1961 to 1974,25 stations showed block distribution in the central and northeastern Liaoning,but the distribution of five stations was spotty in 1980-2009.Before the middle and latter half of the 1970s,Liaoning had more(less) summer rainfall when SST over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific was higher(lower) in the previous autumn.However,it was difficult to build indicative relationship above since 1980s.

The Decadal Variation of Afro-Asian Summer Monsoon and Precipitation

By dint of grid information from 1948 to 2007,the summer monsoon in Afro-Asian area and the precipitation in corresponding atmosphere circulation situation during the strong and weak Afro-Asian monsoon period are studied.The results suggest that the strong or weak Afro-Asian monsoon has pretty good corresponding relation with summer precipitation in Afro-Asian area.When summer monsoon weakens year after year,precipitation also decreases every year.

The Influence of Vegetation Cover on Summer Precipitation in China: a Statistical Analysis of NDVI and Climate Data

This study provides new evidence for the feedback effects of vegetation cover on summer precipitation in different regions of China by calculating immediate (same season), and one-and two-season lagged correlations between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and summer precipitation. The results show that the correlation coefficients between NDVI in spring and the previous winter and precipitation in summer are positive in most regions of China, and they show significant difference between regions. The stronger one-and two-season lagged correlations occur in the eastern arid/semi-arid region, Central China, and Southwest China out of the eight climatic regions of China, and this implies that vegetation cover change has more sensitive feedback effects on summer precipitation in the three regions. The three regions are defined as sensitive regions. Spatial analyses of correlations between spring NDVI averaged over each sensitive region and summer precipitation of 160 stations suggest that the vegetation cover strongly affects summer precipitation not only over the sensitive region itself but also over other regions, especially the downstream region.

Dynamic Downscaling of Summer Precipitation Prediction over China in 1998 Using WRF and CCSM4

To study the prediction of the anomalous precipitation and general circulation for the summer（June–July–August） of1998, the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0（CCSM4.0） integrations were used to drive version 3.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF3.2） regional climate model to produce hindcasts at 60 km resolution. The results showed that the WRF model produced improved summer precipitation simulations. The systematic errors in the east of the Tibetan Plateau were removed, while in North China and Northeast China the systematic errors still existed. The improvements in summer precipitation interannual increment prediction also had regional characteristics. There was a marked improvement over the south of the Yangtze River basin and South China, but no obvious improvement over North China and Northeast China. Further analysis showed that the improvement was present not only for the seasonal mean precipitation, but also on a sub-seasonal timescale. The two occurrences of the Mei-yu rainfall agreed better with the observations in the WRF model,but were not resolved in CCSM. These improvements resulted from both the higher resolution and better topography of the WRF model.

Stable isotopes of summer monsoonal precipitation in southern China and the moisture sources evidence from δ^18O signature

Summer monsoons （South Asian monsoon, South China Sea monsoon and Subtropical monsoon） are prominent features of summertime climate over southern China. Dif- ferent monsoons carry different inflow moisture into China and control the temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation. Analyses of meteorological data, particularly wind, tempera- ture and pressure anomalies are traditional methods of characterizing moisture sources and transport patterns. Here, we try to utilize the evidence from stable isotopes signatures to trace summer monsoons over southern China. Based on seven CHNIP （Chinese Network of Iso- topes in Precipitation） observatory stations located in southern China, monthly composite precipitation samples have been collected and analyzed for the composition of δ^18O during July, 2005. The results indicated that the spatial distributions of δ^18O in precipitation could properly portray the moisture sources together with their transport pathways. Moreover, the amount effect, altitude effect, temperature effect and the correlation between δ^18O vs. relative humidity were discussed.

Comparison of Products from ERA-40,NCEP-2,and CRU with Station Data for Summer Precipitation over China

Summer precipitation products from the 45-Year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast （ECMWF） Reanalysis （ERA-40）, and NCEP-Department of Energy （DOE） Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP-II） Reanaiysis （NCEP-2）, and Climatic Research Unit （CRU） TS 2.1 dataset are compared with the corresponding observations over China in order to understand the quality and utility of the reanalysis datasets for the period 1979-2001. The results reveal that although the magnitude and location of the rainfall belts differ among the reanaiysis, CRU, and station data over South and West China, the spatial distributions show good agreement over most areas of China. In comparison with the observations in most areas of China, CRU best matches the observed summer precipitation, while ERA-40 reports less precipitation and NCEP-2 reports more precipitation than the observations. With regard to the amplitude of the interannuai variations, CRU is better than either of the reanalyses in representing the corresponding observations. The amplitude in NCEP-2 is stronger but that of ERA-40 is weaker than the observations in most study domains. NCEP-2 has a more obvious interannuai variability than ERA-40 or CRU in most areas of East China. Through an Empirical orthogonai function （EOF） analysis, the main features of the rainfall belts produced by CRU agree better with the observations than with those produced by the reanalyses in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley. In East of China, particularly in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley, CRU can reveal the quasi-bienniai oscillation of summer precipitation represented by the observations, but the signal of ERA-40 is comparatively weak and not very obvious, whereas that of NCEP-2 is also weak before 1990 but very strong after 1990. The results also suggest that the magnitude of the precipitation difference between ERA-40 and the observations is smaller than that between NCEP-2 and the observations, but the variations represented by NCEP-2 are more reasonable than those given by ERA-40 in most areas of East China to some extent.

Cluster analysis on summer precipitation field over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004

The summer day-by-day precipitation data of 97 meteorological stations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004 were selected to analyze the temporal-spatial distribution through accumulated variance,correlation analysis,regression analysis,empirical orthogonal function,power spectrum function and spatial analysis tools of GIS.The result showed that summer precipitation occupied a relatively high proportion in the area with less annual precipitation on the Plateau and the correlation between summer precipitation and annual precipitation was strong.The altitude of these stations and summer precipitation tendency presented stronger positive correlation below 2000 m,with correlation value up to 0.604（α=0.01）.The subtracting tendency values between 1961-1983 and 1984-2004 at five altitude ranges（2000-2500 m,2500-3000 m,3500-4000 m,4000-4500 m and above 4500 m）were above zero and accounted for 71.4%of the total.Using empirical orthogonal function, summer precipitation could be roughly divided into three precipitation pattern fields：the Southeast Plateau Pattern Field,the Northeast Plateau Pattern field and the Three Rivers＇ Headstream Regions Pattern Field.The former two ones had a reverse value from the north to the south and opposite line was along 35°N.The potential cycles of the three pattern fields were 5.33a,21.33a and 2.17a respectively,tested by the confidence probability of 90%.The station altitudes and summer precipitation potential cycles presented strong negative correlation in the stations above 4500 m,with correlation value of-0.626（α=0.01）.In Three Rivers Headstream Regions summer precipitation cycle decreased as the altitude rose in the stations above 3500 m and increased as the altitude rose in those below 3500 m.The empirical orthogonal function analysis in June precipitation,July precipitation and August precipitation showed that the June precipitation pattern field was similar to the July＇s,in which southern Plateau was positive and northern Plateau negative.But positive value area in July precipitation pattern field was obviously less than June＇s.The August pattern field was totally opposite to June＇s and July＇s.The positive area in August pattern field jumped from the southern Plateau to the northern Plateau.