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Dominant Patterns of Summer Rainfall Anomalies in East China during 1951-2006 被引量:2
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作者 叶红 陆日宇 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第4期695-704,共10页
The dominant patterns of summer rainfall anomalies in East China were studied using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results indicate that after the late 1970s, the first and second dominant pattern... The dominant patterns of summer rainfall anomalies in East China were studied using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results indicate that after the late 1970s, the first and second dominant patterns switched. During the period before the late 1970s, the spatial pattern of the first (second) dominant mode was the "Yangtze River pattern" (the "South China pattern"), but this changed to the "South China pattern" (the "Yangtze River pattern") after the late 1970s. This decadal change in the dominant patterns resulted from a significant decadal change in summer rainfall over South China after the late 1970s, i.e., a negative phase during 1978-1992 and a positive phase during 1993-2006. When the decadal variation of rainfall in East China is omitted from the analysis, the first and second dominant patterns represent the "Yangtze River pattern" and the "South China pattern", respectively. These results suggest that when decadal variation is included, the rainfall in China may be dominated by one mode during certain periods and by another in other periods. For the interannual variability when decadal variation is excluded, however, the first and second modes can be easily distinguished, and their order has been stable since at least 1951. 展开更多
关键词 dominant patterns summer rainfall interannual variability South china decadal variation
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Characteristics of the Summer Time Rainfall Patterns over China and the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
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作者 彭模 韩雪 陈茂钦 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第2期24-30,36,共8页
Using the monthly summer (June to August) precipitation data over China from 1979 to 1998,and the SST data in Indian Ocean of the overlapping periods,we have analyzed the spatial patterns as well as their temporal evo... Using the monthly summer (June to August) precipitation data over China from 1979 to 1998,and the SST data in Indian Ocean of the overlapping periods,we have analyzed the spatial patterns as well as their temporal evolution of the summer precipitation,along with the relationships between the precipitation over China and the SST in Indian Ocean,with the EOF and SVD methods respectively.The important results are:several canonical anomalous summer precipitation patterns have been identified.The summer SST in Indian Ocean is positively correlated with the simultaneous precipitation in the Yangtze River and Huai River Basin,while negatively with that in other parts of China. 展开更多
关键词 Precipitation in summer rainfall pattern Sea surface temperature in indian Ocean china
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Spatiotemporal Variations of Summer Rainfall over Eastern China during 1880-1999(1) 被引量:12
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作者 李晓东 朱亚芬 钱维宏 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2002年第6期1055-1068,共14页
By applying rotated complex empirical orthogonal function (RCEOF) analysis on 1880-1999 summer rainfall at 28 selected stations over the east part of China, the spatio-temporal variations of China summer rainfall are ... By applying rotated complex empirical orthogonal function (RCEOF) analysis on 1880-1999 summer rainfall at 28 selected stations over the east part of China, the spatio-temporal variations of China summer rainfall are investigated. Six divisions are identified, showing strong temporal variability, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River, Southeast China, North China, Southwest China, and Northeast China. The locations of all divisions except Southwest China are in a good agreement with those of the rainband which moves northward from Southeast China to Northeast China from June-August. The phase relationship revealed by the RCEOF analysis suggests that rainfall anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Southeast China, and Northeast China are all characterized by a stationary wave, while a traveling wave is more pronounced in the Huaihe River division, North China, and Southwest China. The fourth RCEOF mode indicates that rainfall anomalies can propagate from south of Northeast China across lower reaches of the Huanghe River and the Huaihe River to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A 20-25-year oscillation is found at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River valley, North China, and Northeast China. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Northeast China also show an approximately-60-year oscillation. Northeast China and the Huaihe River division are dominated by a 36-year and a 70-80-year oscillation, respectively. An 11-year oscillation is also evident in North China, with a periodicity similar to sunspot activity. The interdecadal variability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River valley, and North China shows a significant positive correlation with the solar activity. 展开更多
关键词 empirical orthogonal function (EOF) rotated complex EOF (RCEOF) china summer rainfall drought and flood anomaly stationary wave traveling wave interdecadal variability
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POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INTERANNUAL ANOMALY OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE HEIGHT AND SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA 被引量:3
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作者 李丽平 王超 章开美 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2013年第1期16-27,共12页
By using NCEP GODAS monthly sea surface height(SSH) and 160-station monthly precipitation data in China,the seasonal and interannual characteristics of SSH are analyzed over the tropical Pacific,and correlations betwe... By using NCEP GODAS monthly sea surface height(SSH) and 160-station monthly precipitation data in China,the seasonal and interannual characteristics of SSH are analyzed over the tropical Pacific,and correlations between SSH and summer rainfall are discussed.The results are shown as follows:(1) The tropical Pacific SSH takes on a "V" pattern in the climatic field with an eastward opening,and it is higher in the western part(in the northwestern part) than in the eastern part(in the southwestern part).The high-value areas are more stable in the northwest,and the value range(greater than 0.8 m) is larger in spring and summer than in autumn and winter.The high-value area in the southwestern part is the largest(smallest) and more northerly(southerly) in spring(summer).SSH is higher in spring and autumn than in summer and winter over the equatorial zone.(2) The interannual anomalies of the SSH are the strongest over the tropical western and southwestern Pacific and are stronger in winter and spring than in summer and autumn.The interannual anomalies are also strong over the equatorial middle and eastern Pacific.The distribution ranges are larger and the intensities are stronger in the autumn and winter.There is a close relationship between the SSH interannual anomalies and ENSO events in autumn,winter and spring.(3) When ENSO events take place in winter,according to the simultaneous relationship among the tropic Pacific SSH,850 hPa wind fields and the summer precipitation of China,it can be predicted that the precipitation will be significantly more than normal over the south of the Yangtze River,especially over Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake region,eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Yangtze-Huai River Valley,eastern part of Inner Mongolia and less than normal over the area of Great Band of Yellow River,North China and South China in successive summers. 展开更多
关键词 sea surface height inTERANNUAL ANOMALIES TROPICAL PACIFIC Ocean summer rainfall of china
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Revisiting the Second EOF Mode of Interannual Variation in Summer Rainfall over East China 被引量:3
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作者 Zhongda LIN Qin SU Riyu LU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第1期121-134,共14页
The second EOF(EOF2) mode of interannual variation in summer rainfall over East China is characterized by inverse rainfall changes between South China(SC) and the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys(YH).However,un... The second EOF(EOF2) mode of interannual variation in summer rainfall over East China is characterized by inverse rainfall changes between South China(SC) and the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys(YH).However,understanding of the EOF2 mode is still limited.In this study,the authors identify that the EOF2 mode physically depicts the latitudinal variation of the climatological summer-mean rainy belt along the Yangtze River valley(YRRB),based on a 160-station rainfall dataset in China for the period 1951-2011.The latitudinal variation of the YRRB is mostly attributed to two different rainfall patterns:one reflects the seesaw(SS) rainfall changes between the YH and SC(SS pattern),and the other features rainfall anomalies concentrated in SC only(SC pattern).Corresponding to a southward shift of the YRRB,the SS pattern,with above-normal rainfall in SC and below-normal rainfall in the YH,is related to a cyclonic anomaly centered over the SC-East China Sea region,with a northerly anomaly blowing from the YH to SC;while the SC pattern,with above-normal rainfall in SC,is related to an anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific(WNP),corresponding to an enhanced southwest monsoon over SC.The cyclonic anomaly,related to the SS pattern,is induced by a near-barotropic eastward propagating wave train along the Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet,originating from the mid-high latitudes of the North Atlantic.The anticyclonic anomaly,for the SC pattern,is related to suppressed rainfall in the WNP. 展开更多
关键词 Yangtze River rainy belt East china summer rainfall seesaw pattern South china pattern western North Pacific subtropical high extratropical wave train
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The Relationship of Land-Ocean Thermal Anomaly Difference with Mei-yu and South China Sea Summer Monsoon 被引量:3
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作者 王志福 钱永甫 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第1期169-179,共11页
Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1948-2004 and the monthly rainfall data at 160 stations in China from 1951 to 2004, the relationships among the land-ocean temperature anomaly difference in the... Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1948-2004 and the monthly rainfall data at 160 stations in China from 1951 to 2004, the relationships among the land-ocean temperature anomaly difference in the mid-lower troposphere in spring (April-May), the mei-yu rainfall in the Yangtze River- Huaihe River basin, and the activities of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) are analyzed by using correlation and composite analyses. Results show that a significant positive correlation exists between mei-yu rainfall and air temperature in the middle latitudes above the western Pacific, while a significant negative correlation is located to the southwest of the Baikal Lake. When the land-ocean thermal anomaly difference is stronger in spring, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) will be weaker and retreat eastward in summer (June-July), and the SCSSM will be stronger and advance further north, resulting in deficient moisture along the mei-yu front and below-normal precipitation in the mid and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and vice versa for the weaker difference case. The effects and relative importance of the land and ocean anomalous heating on monsoon variability is also compared. It is found that the land and ocean thermal anomalies are both closely related to the summer circulation and mei-yu rainfall and SCSSM intensity, whereas the land heating anomaly is more important than ocean heating in changing the land-ocean thermal contrast and hence the summer monsoon intensity. 展开更多
关键词 land-ocean thermal anomaly difference South china Sea summer monsoon Yangtze River-Huaihe River mei-yu rainfall correlation analysis composite analysis
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Diversity of the Coupling Wheels in the East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Interannual Time Scale: Challenge of Summer Rainfall Forecasting in China 被引量:2
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作者 Congwen ZHU Boqi LIU +2 位作者 Kang XU Ning JIANG Kai LIU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第4期546-554,共9页
Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the... Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the interaction between the Mongolian cyclone over North Asia and the South Asian high(SAH) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau at 200 hPa. The second mode presents the coupling between the anomalous low-level western Pacific anticyclone and upperlevel SAH via the meridional flow over Southeast Asia. These two modes are responsible for the summer rainfall anomalies over China in 24 and 7 out of 37 years, respectively. However, the dominant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean fail to account for the first coupling wheel's interannual variability, illustrating the challenges in forecasting summer rainfall over China. 展开更多
关键词 East Asian summer monsoon coupling circulation modes summer rainfall anomalies china
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Interannual Variability of Summer Rainfall over the Northern Part of China and the Related Circulation Features 被引量:4
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作者 BUEH Cholaw LI Yan +1 位作者 LIN Dawei LIAN Yi 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第5期615-630,共16页
In this study, interannual variability of summer rainfall over the northern part of China (NPC) and associated circulation patterns were investigated by using long-term (1961-2013) observational and reanalysis dat... In this study, interannual variability of summer rainfall over the northern part of China (NPC) and associated circulation patterns were investigated by using long-term (1961-2013) observational and reanalysis data. Two important NPC rainfall modes were identified by empirical orthogoual function analysis: the first is characterized by an almost uniformly distributed rainfall anomaly over most parts of the NPC, while the second shows rainfall variability in Northeast China (NEC) and its out-of-phase relationship with that in North China (NC) and the northern part of Northwest China. The results also suggest that the NPC summer rainfall anomalies are also closely associated with those in some other parts of China. It is revealed that the circumglobal teleconnection pattern associated with the anomalous Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the Polar/Eurasia (PEA) pattern work in concert to constitute the typical circulation pattern of the first rainfall mode. The cooperative engagement of the anomalous ISM circulation and the PEA pattern is fundamental in transporting water vapor to the NPC. The study emphasizes that the PEA pattern is essential for the water vapor transport to the NPC through the anomalous midlatitude westerly. In the second NPC rainfall mode, the typical circulation pattern is characterized by the anomalous surface Okhotsk high and the attendant lower tropospheric circulation anomaly over NEC. The circulation anomaly over NEC leads to a redistribution of water vapor fluxes over the NPC and constitutes an out-of-phase relationship between the rainfall anomalies over NEC and NC. 展开更多
关键词 summer rainfall northern part of china circumglobal teleconnection pattern Polar/Eurasia pattern water vapor transport
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Recognition of two dominant modes of EASM and its thermal driving factors based on 25 monsoon indexes
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作者 YE Mao CHEN Haishan 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2019年第4期278-285,共8页
Based on three reanalysis datasets—ERA-Interim,NCAR–NCEP and JRA-55—the classification of25 commonly used indexes of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)was investigated.The physical nature of two categories of mons... Based on three reanalysis datasets—ERA-Interim,NCAR–NCEP and JRA-55—the classification of25 commonly used indexes of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)was investigated.The physical nature of two categories of monsoon index,together with their circulation pattern,climate anomalies,and driving factors,were investigated.Results suggest that the selected 25 monsoon indexes can be classified into two typical categories(CategoryⅠandⅡ),which are dominated by interannual and decadal variabilities of the EASM,respectively.The anomalous circulation patterns and summer rainfall patterns related to the two categories of index also exhibit evident differences.CategoryⅠis closely linked to the low-latitude circulation system and the anomalous circulation pattern is a typical East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern.The summer rainfall anomaly exhibits a typical tripole pattern.However,CategoryⅡmainly reflects the impacts of the middle–high latitude circulation system on the summer monsoon and is closely linked to a typical Eurasian teleconnection pattern,which corresponds to a dipole of summer rainfall anomalies.Further analysis suggests that the underlying thermal driving factors of the two categories of monsoon are distinct.The main driving factors of CategoryⅠare the tropical sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs),especially ENSO-related SSTAs in the preceding winter and summer SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean.The winter signal of Category II summer monsoon anomalous activity mainly originates from the polar region and the middle and high latitudes of the Eurasian continent.CategoryⅡmonsoon activity is also associated with summer SSTAs in the equatorial central Pacific. 展开更多
关键词 East Asian summer monsoon dominant modes summer rainfall anomaly anomalous atmospheric general circulation pattern thermal driving factors
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中国东北地区夏季旱涝的分析研究 被引量:81
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作者 孙力 安刚 丁立 《地理科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2002年第3期311-316,共6页
利用东北三省及内蒙东北部均匀分布的 80个测站 4 0年 (196 1~ 2 0 0 0年 )夏季 (6~ 8月 )月降水资料以及正态化Z指数变换、小波分析和正交旋转主成份分析等方法 ,对东北地区夏季降水进行了旱涝等级划分 ,并探讨了旱涝发生的时间演变... 利用东北三省及内蒙东北部均匀分布的 80个测站 4 0年 (196 1~ 2 0 0 0年 )夏季 (6~ 8月 )月降水资料以及正态化Z指数变换、小波分析和正交旋转主成份分析等方法 ,对东北地区夏季降水进行了旱涝等级划分 ,并探讨了旱涝发生的时间演变规律和空间分布特征。结果表明 ,东北地区夏季不同级别旱涝出现的几率存在着一定的差异 ,并且旱涝异常还具有明显的年际、年代际和周期性变化以及阶段性和群发性特征 ,地理分布上 ,可将东北地区夏季降水分为 7个旱涝型 (或敏感区 ) 。 展开更多
关键词 东北地区 夏季 旱涝 气候分析 小波分析 正交旋转主成份分析 中国
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山西省夏季年际气候异常研究1.山西省一致多雨或少雨型 被引量:22
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作者 李智才 宋燕 +1 位作者 朱临洪 张世英 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2008年第1期86-93,共8页
利用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料以及山西64个测站的月降水量等资料,采用EOF分解和合成分析方法研究了1960-2003年山西夏季降水的年际变化异常以及时空特征。利用EOF方法分析山西夏季降水,第一类雨型是山西省夏季一致多雨型,... 利用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料以及山西64个测站的月降水量等资料,采用EOF分解和合成分析方法研究了1960-2003年山西夏季降水的年际变化异常以及时空特征。利用EOF方法分析山西夏季降水,第一类雨型是山西省夏季一致多雨型,并给出此类异常雨型的时空分布和相应的典型年份。山西省夏季降水趋势分析表明,自1960年以来山西省夏季降水趋于减少。从500hPa位势高度场、纬向风、850hPa风场、700hPa水汽场、海温场等物理量场分析表明,山西夏季一致多雨年对应偏强的东亚夏季风,一般出现在LaNina事件(冷水事件)发生的当年和ElNino事件(暖水事件)发生的来年,中高纬度地区易出现纬向排列的+-+-环流异常纬向分布型,大陆地区为一个异常槽和两个异常脊,乌拉尔山以东地区和鄂霍次克海是异常高压脊,而贝加尔湖地区是一个异常低压槽。山西省夏季一致少雨年对应偏弱的东亚夏季风,一般出现在ElNino事件(暖水事件)发生的当年和LaNina事件(冷水事件)发生的来年,与一致多雨年相反,中高纬度地区通常呈现纬向排列的-+-+环流异常纬向分布型,大陆地区出现两个异常槽和一个异常脊。山西省夏季第一类雨型的发生与中高纬度地区纬向排列的环流异常分布和赤道太平洋海温异常有关系。 展开更多
关键词 降水异常 东亚夏季风 一致多雨型 环流异常
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盛夏四川盆地西部地区降水年际变化及其对应的环流异常 被引量:15
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作者 胡德强 陆日宇 +1 位作者 苏秦 范广洲 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2014年第1期13-20,共8页
利用7、8月全国756站站点降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料的月平均资料,研究了盛夏四川盆地西部地区降水年际变化的基本特征及其对应的环流异常,并分析了该地区与江南地区降水年际变化的关系及其对应的700 hPa环流异常。结果表明:四川盆... 利用7、8月全国756站站点降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料的月平均资料,研究了盛夏四川盆地西部地区降水年际变化的基本特征及其对应的环流异常,并分析了该地区与江南地区降水年际变化的关系及其对应的700 hPa环流异常。结果表明:四川盆地西部地区盛夏降水偏多年,四川盆地上空为显著的南风异常,说明西南涡较常年活跃,同时西太平洋副热带高压偏北;而降水偏少时,上述环流异常符号相反,但更加明显,说明西南涡明显弱于常年,西太平洋副热带高压偏南。此外,四川盆地西部盛夏降水年际变化和我国西北、华北地区降水呈明显的正相关关系,而与江南地区降水有明显的负相关关系。这些关系与对流层低层环流异常有关。 展开更多
关键词 四川盆地西部 降水异常 江南地区 盛夏 年际变化 环流异常
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华北夏季降水与北半球环流及北太平洋海温关系的初步分析 被引量:20
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作者 于润玲 孙照渤 陈海山 《南京气象学院学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2002年第5期577-586,共10页
在利用基于 Z指数的判别方法确定华北地区严重旱涝年份的基础上 ,应用合成分析方法研究了严重旱涝年的环流形势并初步分析了华北夏季旱涝的成因。然后用相关分析研究方法找出了与华北地区夏季降水关系密切的海温关键区 ,即赤道中东太平... 在利用基于 Z指数的判别方法确定华北地区严重旱涝年份的基础上 ,应用合成分析方法研究了严重旱涝年的环流形势并初步分析了华北夏季旱涝的成因。然后用相关分析研究方法找出了与华北地区夏季降水关系密切的海温关键区 ,即赤道中东太平洋地区和北太平洋中高纬地区。利用大气环流模式进行数值试验 ,进一步研究了两个区域海温影响华北降水的物理机制和相对重要性 ,得到了一些有意义的结果。 展开更多
关键词 夏季 降水 环流形势 北太平洋 海温异常 数值试验 华北地区 旱涝
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中国东北地区夏季降水异常的气候分析 被引量:157
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作者 孙力 安刚 +1 位作者 丁立 沈柏竹 《气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2000年第1期70-82,共13页
利用中国东北三省 69个测站 ,1 961~ 1 995年 6~ 8月降水量资料 ,采用 EOF、REOF、小波分析及突变分析等方法 ,对夏季降水量的空间异常特征和时间变化规律进行了诊断研究。结果表明 :东北地区夏季降水异常的空间分布既有整体一致的性... 利用中国东北三省 69个测站 ,1 961~ 1 995年 6~ 8月降水量资料 ,采用 EOF、REOF、小波分析及突变分析等方法 ,对夏季降水量的空间异常特征和时间变化规律进行了诊断研究。结果表明 :东北地区夏季降水异常的空间分布既有整体一致的性质 ,也存在着南部和北部及东部和西部相反变化的差异 ,并且可以把整个东北地区划分为 7个主要的降水异常型 :辽东半岛型、西部平原型、中南部型、东部山区型、三江平原型、辽西型和东北北部型。近 90 a来 ,东北地区夏季降水主要呈多雨、少雨或是波动等阶段性变化 ,没有明显的变干或是变湿倾向。各异常型代表站资料反映出近 35~ 45a中 ,东北地区 1 960年代中期至 1 980年代初降水的减少比较明显 ,具有突变性质 ,1 980年代总体上讲降水有一定程度的增加 ,1 990年代处于旱涝交替出现的波动状态。东北地区夏季降水主要有 34,2 2 ,1 1 a以及 2~ 4a左右的周期变化 ,但各异常区所盛行的主要周期以及同一异常区在不同年代所盛行的主要周期均有所差异。 展开更多
关键词 中国 夏季 降水异常 气候分析
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东亚夏季风变化与华北夏季降水异常的关系 被引量:21
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作者 郝立生 丁一汇 闵锦忠 《高原气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2016年第5期1280-1289,共10页
为认识华北夏季降水异常原因及改进气候预测技术,利用华北夏季降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流等资料,并采用经向风场定义东亚夏季风指数,对东亚夏季风与华北夏季降水的关系进行了综合分析。结果表明:(1)通常在强东亚夏季风年华北夏... 为认识华北夏季降水异常原因及改进气候预测技术,利用华北夏季降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流等资料,并采用经向风场定义东亚夏季风指数,对东亚夏季风与华北夏季降水的关系进行了综合分析。结果表明:(1)通常在强东亚夏季风年华北夏季降水偏多,在弱东亚夏季风年华北夏季降水偏少。但也有相反的情况,强东亚夏季风年降水偏多(少)的空间分布形势与弱东亚夏季风年降水偏多(少)分布明显不同。(2)无论强东亚夏季风年还是弱东亚夏季风年,华北夏季降水偏多的环流条件是有充足的水汽来源(强夏季风年为西南风水汽输送异常,弱夏季风年为东南风水汽输送异常)和较好的动力上升条件(850 hPa层在华北有辐合环流,500 hPa层中纬度纬向环流突出,华北多低槽过境)。(3)华北夏季降水偏少的环流形势明显不同:在强夏季风年虽然有充足的水汽来源(西南风异常),在弱夏季风年水汽来源不足(偏北风异常),但都缺乏有效的动力上升条件(850 hPa层在华北为辐散环流,500 hPa层中纬度经向环流突出,华北低槽过境偏少)。(4)在强东亚夏季风年,尽管水汽来源充足,但由于动力上升条件不同而造成华北夏季降水量在不同年份有明显差别。如果动力上升条件好,华北夏季降水会异常偏多,反之,华北夏季降水也会出现异常偏少。(5)在弱东亚夏季风年,西南风水汽来源大量减少,如果又缺乏其它路径水汽补充,加上动力条件弱,华北夏季降水会异常偏少。弱夏季风年西南风水汽来源大量减少,但只要东南风水汽输送加强,华北仍会有足够的水汽来源,这时,如果有较好的动力上升条件,华北夏季仍然会出现降水异常偏多的情况,如2011-2013年。预测华北夏季降水不能简单认为东亚夏季风强、华北夏季降水就多,东亚夏季风弱、华北夏季降水就少,东亚夏季风强度变化只是说明了水汽条件不同,还应结合动力条件变化才能作好华北夏季降水气候预测。 展开更多
关键词 东亚夏季风 华北 降水异常 环流特征
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夏季北半球500hPa月平均场遥相关型及其与我国季风降水异常的关系 被引量:19
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作者 施能 朱乾根 +1 位作者 古文保 黄静 《南京气象学院学报》 CSCD 1994年第1期1-10,共10页
用一点相关法计算了盛夏北半球500hPa遥相关型。得到7月份北半球存在7个遥相关型,8月份有6个遥相关型。确定了它们的中心,计算了各遥相关型的历年强度指数(1951~1990).研究了它们的年际变化、月际变化。指出7... 用一点相关法计算了盛夏北半球500hPa遥相关型。得到7月份北半球存在7个遥相关型,8月份有6个遥相关型。确定了它们的中心,计算了各遥相关型的历年强度指数(1951~1990).研究了它们的年际变化、月际变化。指出7月份的东亚太平洋型(EAP)、北美东西遥相关型(NAEW);8月份的EAP型、欧亚型(EU)与我国盛夏季风降水关系密切。1991年夏季发生的弱EAP型是江淮流域大涝的一个重要原因。 展开更多
关键词 夏季 遥相关型 降水异常 季风
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夏季长江中下游和华南两类雨型的环流特征及预测信号 被引量:12
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作者 赵俊虎 杨柳 +1 位作者 曾宇星 封国林 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2016年第6期1182-1198,共17页
利用中国南方66站降水观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、合成分析和相关分析等方法,对夏季长江中下游和华南两类雨型进行了划分,对比分析了两类雨型同期大气环流和前期海温及环流的差异,以探讨两类雨型的形成... 利用中国南方66站降水观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、合成分析和相关分析等方法,对夏季长江中下游和华南两类雨型进行了划分,对比分析了两类雨型同期大气环流和前期海温及环流的差异,以探讨两类雨型的形成机制及前期预测信号。结果表明:20世纪80年代之前华南型出现的频次较高,之后长江中下游型出现频次增多;长江中下游型年西太平洋副热带高压(副高)偏强偏西偏南,东亚夏季风(EASM)偏弱,副热带西风急流位置偏南,乌拉尔山阻塞高压(乌阻)和鄂霍次克海阻塞高压(鄂阻)较强,欧亚中高纬以经向环流为主,冷暖空气在长江中下游辐合,导致长江中下游降水偏多;华南型年大气环流与长江中下游型年大体相反,登陆华南的台风偏多,冷暖空气在华南地区辐合,导致华南地区降水偏多;其中副高的脊线位置和中高纬阻塞强弱是长江中下游型和华南型形成的关键因素。两类雨型前期海温分析表明,长江中下游型年,前冬赤道中东太平洋和印度洋偏暖,为典型的东部型El Ni?o,副热带南印度洋偶极子(SIOD)呈负位相,春季El Ni?o衰减,SIOD负位相也减弱,但印度洋持续增暖;华南型年,前冬和春季的海洋演变与长江中下游型年大体相反;关键区域海温与长江中下游夏季降水(YRR)和华南夏季降水(SCR)的年际关系存在年代际变化,YRR和SCR与前冬Ni?o3.4指数、SIOD指数和春季热带印度洋全区一致海温模态(IOBW)指数的相关关系在80年代之后逐步减弱,这主要是由于这三个关键海温指数与EASM及副高脊线的相关关系在80年代之后逐步减弱;两类雨型前期大气环流差异分析表明,春季大气环流的差异性要比前冬显著,长江中下游型年,春季副高、南海副高、马斯克林高压(马高)、澳大利亚高压(澳高)均偏强,大西洋欧洲区极涡强度偏弱,北太平洋涛动(NPO)呈正位相;华南型年春季的关键环流系统异常不明显,仅大西洋欧洲区极涡强度偏强,NPO呈负位相。前期海温演变及春季大气环流关键系统的异常可以作为两类雨型年的一些预测信号。 展开更多
关键词 夏季雨型 长江中下游型 华南型 海温 大气环流
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东北夏季降水年代际、年际变化的区域差别 被引量:13
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作者 龚强 汪宏宇 +1 位作者 王盘兴 李丽平 《气象科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2007年第6期672-678,共7页
采用REOF方法对我国东北夏季降水异常进行了区划,并通过周期分析等方法分析了各分区降水年代际、年际变化特征。结果表明:东北夏季降水异常可划分为南部、中部、东部、西南部、西北部和北部6个区域,东南部(包括前3个区域)的年代际变化... 采用REOF方法对我国东北夏季降水异常进行了区划,并通过周期分析等方法分析了各分区降水年代际、年际变化特征。结果表明:东北夏季降水异常可划分为南部、中部、东部、西南部、西北部和北部6个区域,东南部(包括前3个区域)的年代际变化高于西北部(后3个区域)。50 a来东北全区夏季降水没有明显变干或变湿的倾向,但存在明显的年代际变化。其中,南部与全区旱涝在两种时间尺度上(特别在年代际尺度上)的相关均较高;东部与全区的相关也主要表现在年代际尺度上,而中部、西南部主要表现在年际尺度上。 展开更多
关键词 夏季降水异常 区划 年代际和年际变化 东北地区
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华南前汛期持续暴雨环流分型初步研究 被引量:19
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作者 张端禹 郑彬 +2 位作者 汪小康 崔春光 赵玉春 《大气科学学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2015年第3期310-320,共11页
采用1961—2010年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和台站观测降水量资料,按一定标准选取了华南前汛期24个持续暴雨过程;并且按基本判据确定逐年华南夏季风降水开始日期。然后依据南亚高压环流型和相对于该年夏季风降水开始的早晚,将这些暴雨过... 采用1961—2010年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和台站观测降水量资料,按一定标准选取了华南前汛期24个持续暴雨过程;并且按基本判据确定逐年华南夏季风降水开始日期。然后依据南亚高压环流型和相对于该年夏季风降水开始的早晚,将这些暴雨过程划分为夏季风降水前、后南亚高压东部型,夏季风降水后南亚高压带状、西部型共4个类型;其中,夏季风后南亚高压西部型次数最多、平均持续时间最长。所有类型持续暴雨的相同点是:广东东北部附近均为暴雨频率和雨量高值区;暴雨期间华南150 h Pa位势高度增加、500 h Pa位势高度减少;华南处在150 h Pa偏西风急流南侧辐散区中;850 h Pa华南沿海有明显的西南气流,低层辐合在华南东北部最明显;两广沿海为可降水量大值区;华南的整层水汽输送主要呈现西南向。不同点是:夏季风后南亚高压西部型平均雨量较小,夏季风后南亚高压带状型与西部型在印度洋上存在明显的偏东风高空急流;夏季风后南亚高压类型在两广沿海的可降水量数值较大。 展开更多
关键词 华南前汛期 持续暴雨 南亚高压 华南夏季风降水 环流型
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全球海温异常年代际分量的方差贡献及其与中国气候异常的相关 被引量:8
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作者 周晓霞 王盘兴 +1 位作者 祝昌汉 覃军 《应用气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2005年第1期96-104,共9页
将全球海洋海表温度异常 (SSTA)分解为年代际、年际变化两部分 ,用方差分析法给出年代际变化分量显著的洋区及其季节变化 ,用奇异值分解 (SVD)方法分析了它与中国冬温(冬季平均气温 )、夏雨 (夏季总降水量 )年代际异常分量的同期和时滞... 将全球海洋海表温度异常 (SSTA)分解为年代际、年际变化两部分 ,用方差分析法给出年代际变化分量显著的洋区及其季节变化 ,用奇异值分解 (SVD)方法分析了它与中国冬温(冬季平均气温 )、夏雨 (夏季总降水量 )年代际异常分量的同期和时滞相关联系的时空结构。结果表明 ,无论冬、夏 ,SSTA的方差构成中 ,年代际变化分量方差均较年际变化分量显著 ;SSTA年代际分量正异常时 ,中国 (以北方和东部为主 )易出现一致的冬温正异常 ,长江流域、华南夏雨易出现正异常 ,而华北夏雨易出现负异常 ;反之亦然。 展开更多
关键词 年代际变化 SSTA 海温异常 年际变化 气候异常 海表温度 平均气温 分量 方差 奇异值分解
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