目的论视角下文化负载词英译研究——以纪录片Seasons of China为例

在当今世界文化交流愈发频繁的背景下,推动中华文明走向世界成为重中之重。翻译作为推动跨文化交流的重要手段之一,是连接不同文化的桥梁。而文化负载词由于其涵盖的大量民族特色词汇,成为翻译过程中的挑战,同时也是文化传播的重要工具。文章基于目的论视角,以纪录片Seasons of China中的中文文化负载词英译为例,探讨译者在翻译过程中采取的恰当翻译方法,以期为纪录片的文化负载词翻译研究提供一定的借鉴与参考。

Oriented Generation of Novel Thermo-Sensitive Genic Male Sterile Lines with Improved Grain Shape and Outcrossing Rate in Early-Season Rice

Two-line hybrid rice with excellent quality is preferred in the Chinese market.However,there is a trade-off between reducing costs for hybrid seed production and lowering the outcrossing rate of the sterile line,which is largely determined by the stigma exsertion rate(SER).In this study,we constructed mutants of male sterility lines with improved grain length(GL)and SER in three elite early-season indica rice varieties through targeted manipulation of the TMS5 and GS3 genes using CRISPR/Cas9-mediated multiplex systems.We obtained a series of marker-free gs3 single mutants and gs3tms5 double mutants with significantly higher SER,longer grains,and increased 1000-grain weight compared with the wild type(WT).Importantly,the typically thermo-sensitive genic male sterile(TGMS)trait with a higher SER was observed in gs3tms5 mutants,and their F1 hybrids exhibited remarkable improvements in grain shape and yield-related traits.Our findings provided an efficient method to generate new valuable TGMS germplasm with improved SER through the mutagenesis of GS3 and TMS5 synergistically,and demonstrated that GS3 had pleiotropic effects on grain size,SER,and grain quality in early-season indica rice.

Seasonal changes in Hermit Thrush (Catharus guttatus) song syntax

In many songbird species,birdsong features phonological syntax,meaning that the units within their vocal se-quences are ordered in a non-random way that adheres to a rule.While such syntactical patterns have been richly described in many species,comparatively little is known about how those patterns contribute to song achieving its important functions.For each of song’s main functions,territorial defense and mate attraction,evidence of a role for syntax is limited.One species for which syntax has been thoroughly described is the Hermit Thrush(Catharus guttatus),which presents song types from their repertoires in a semi-predictable order and,in doing so,rapidly cycle up and down the frequency spectrum.The objective of the present study was to explore the importance of song syntax in the Hermit Thrush through a within-subject examination of how measures of syntax,such as the predictability of song type order within song sequences,shift over the breeding season.We hypothesized that,if such syntactical characteristics are important to breeding behaviour,they would be most prominent at the start of the breeding season when activity associated with territory establishment and mate attraction is most intense.Analysis revealed that,as predicted,the rigidness of song type ordering within se-quences was highest at the start of the season and declined thereafter.That song type sequences were most predictable at the vitally important early part of the breeding season fit our hypothesis that this aspect of song syntax is important to song’s functions related to territory establishment and/or mate attraction.Future work will clarify whether that role relates to one of song’s two main functions or serves song transmission in some broader way.

Deep Learning Shows Promise for Seasonal Prediction of Antarctic Sea Ice in a Rapid Decline Scenario

The rapidly changing Antarctic sea ice has garnered significant interest. To enhance the prediction skill for sea ice and respond to the Sea Ice Prediction Network-South's latest call, this study presents the reforecast results of Antarctic sea-ice area and extent from December to June of the coming year with a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory(Conv LSTM)Network. The reforecast experiments demonstrate that Conv LSTM captures the interannual and interseasonal variability of Antarctic sea ice successfully, and performs better than the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Based on this, we present the prediction from December 2023 to June 2024, indicating that the Antarctic sea ice will remain at lows, but may not create a new record low. This research highlights the promising application of deep learning in Antarctic sea-ice prediction.

Seasonal Variation of Hearing Sensitivity in the Red-eared Slider(Trachemys scripta elegans)

Seasonal variation of hearing sensitivity has been observed in many vertebrate groups with obvious vocal behaviors.Circulating hormones,conspecific calling signals,and temperature are potential factors that drive these plasticity patterns.Turtles have a hearing range that appears to be limited to under 1.5 kHz and are often thought to be non-vocal;thus,they are commonly neglected in vocal communication research.In this study,we aimed to determine whether the auditory phenotype exhibits seasonal variation in sensitivity and to analyze the potential factors driving such variation patterns in turtles.We measured hearing sensitivity and sex hormone levels in female(estradiol)and male(testosterone and dihydrotestosterone)Red-eared sliders(Trachemys scripta elegans)during spring and winter.The results showed that auditory brainstem response(ABR)thresholds were significantly lower in spring than in winter at a frequency range of 0.5-0.9 kHz.The hearing-sensitivity bandwidth was wider,and the ABR latency was significantly shorter in spring than in winter.No significant differences were found in estradiol,testosterone,and dihydrotestosterone levels in T.scripta elegans between spring and winter.This study is the first to reveal the seasonal variation of peripheral hearing sensitivity in turtles,a special animal group with limited hearing range and less vocalization.Temperature variations may be used to explain these seasonal effects,but further research is required to confirm our findings.

Changes in Leaf Stomatal Properties in Rice with the Growing Season

Transplanting rice varieties grown in different seasons can lead to different yields due to different dry matterproduction. Early-season rice varieties transplanted in the late season can obtain high yields with short-growthduration and higher yields driven by higher dry matter production. To make clear the variations in dry matterproduction across seasons, four early-season rice varieties were chosen for late-season transplantation. The grainyield, dry matter accumulation, leaf photosynthetic, and leaf stomatal properties were studied. It was observedthat the average yields of these four varieties in the late season were 33% greater, despite a reduced growth periodof 13 days in comparison with the early season. Furthermore, there was a notable increase in both total and postheadingdry matter production during the late season. The leaf net photosynthetic rate, stomatal area, stomatalwidth, and stomatal length were higher in the late season. Despite no significant difference in stomatal densitybetween seasons, strong positive linear relationships were observed between net photosynthetic rate and stomatalconductance, and between stomatal conductance and area. These relationships demonstrate that the increase ofthe stomatal width and length of the leaves in the late season leads to an increase in the stomatal area, therebyincreasing the stomatal conductance and enhancing the photosynthesis of the leaves. Consequently, this leads togreater dry matter production and a higher yield compared to the early season. Therefore, when breeding newhigh-yielding and short-growing varieties, the large stomatal area can be used as a reference index.

Comparative Study of the Physicochemical Quality of the Waters of the Méné River (Sassandra Watershed, Ivory Coast) in the Dry Season and in the Rainy Season

The study carried out on the waters of the Méné River led to an overall assessment of its water quality during the dry season and the rainy season. The analysis focused on eight (8) water samples taken from the river during a period of dry season (January-February) and a period of rainy season (June and September). The various physicochemical parameters were measured according to Afnor standardized methods. The readings of temperature, turbidity, pH and conductivity made it possible to account for the disturbances occurring in water quality. A temporal variation correlated with the seasons (dry or rainy) is noted. Turbidity depends on the concentration of suspended solids (SS) in the water and drained particles and therefore on the seasons. Just like the temperature, the conductivity changes with the season. The waters of the Méné River are generally acidic. The results obtained show that there is a low level of pollution by chlorides, phosphates, nitrites and nitrates. A slight pollution of the waters of Méné in organic matter (chemical oxygen demand values are less than 25 mg∙L−1 during dry season and 32.33 ± 4.73 mg∙L−1 during rainy season) was observed. The concentrations of metallic trace elements such as iron, manganese and aluminum indicate significant pollution of these waters by these elements. Overall, the waters of the Méné River are of satisfactory quality because all the physicochemical parameters analyzed have values below standards during the dry season as well as during the rainy season with the exception of COD and a few metallic trace elements.

Seasonal variation of mesoscale eddy intensity in the global ocean

Mesoscale eddies are a prominent oceanic phenomenon that plays an important role in oceanic mass transport and energy conversion.Characterizing by rotational speed,the eddy intensity is one of the most fundamental properties of an eddy.However,the seasonal spatiotemporal variation in eddy intensity has not been examined from a global ocean perspective.In this study,we unveil the seasonal spatiotemporal characteristics of eddy intensity in the global ocean by using the latest satellite-altimetry-derived eddy trajectory data set.The results suggest that the eddy intensity has a distinct seasonal variation,reaching a peak in spring while attaining a minimum in autumn in the Northern Hemisphere and the opposite in the Southern Hemisphere.The seasonal variation of eddy intensity is more intense in the tropical-subtropical transition zones within latitudinal bands between 15°and 30°in the western Pacific Ocean,the northwestern Atlantic Ocean,and the eastern Indian Ocean because baroclinic instability in these areas changes sharply.Further analysis found that the seasonal variation of baroclinic instability precedes the eddy intensity by a phase of 2–3 months due to the initial perturbations needing time to grow into mesoscale eddies.

Litter production and leaf nutrient concentration and remobilization in response to climate seasonality in the central Amazon

Litterfall is the largest source of nutrients to for-est soils of tropical rainforests.However,variability in lit-terfall production,nutrient remobilization,and changes in leaf nutrient concentration with climate seasonality remain largely unknown for the central Amazon.This study meas-ured litterfall production,leaf nutrient remobilization,and leaf area index on a forest plateau in the central Amazon.Litterfall was measured at monthly intervals during 2014,while nitrogen,phosphorus,potassium,calcium and mag-nesium concentrations of leaf litter and canopy leaves were measured in the dry and rainy seasons,and remobilization rates determined.Leaf area index was also recorded in the dry and rainy seasons.Monthly litterfall varied from 33.2(in the rainy season)to 87.6 g m^(-2) in the dry season,while leaf area index increased slightly in the rainy season.Climatic seasonality had no effect on concentrations of nitrogen,calcium,and magnesium,whereas phosphorous and potassium responded to rainfall seasonality oppositely.While phosphorous increased,potassium decreased during the dry season.Over seasons,nitrogen,potassium,and phosphorous decreased in leaf litter;calcium increased in leaf litter,while magnesium remained unaffected with leaf aging.Regardless,the five nutrients had similar remobilization rates over the year.The absence of climate seasonality on nutrient remobilization suggests that the current length of the dry season does not alter nutrient remobilization rates but this may change as dry periods become more prolonged in the future due to climate change.

Seedling dynamics differ between canopy species and understory species in a tropical seasonal rainforest,SW China

We used 11 years of census data from 450 seedling quadrats established in a 20-ha forest dynamics plot to study seedling dynamics in tree species of a tropical seasonal rainforest in Xishuangbanna,southwestern China.We found that overall seedling recruitment rate and relative growth rate were higher in the rainy season than in the dry season.Both the recruitment rate of seedlings from canopy tree species(two species)and the relative growth rate of seedlings from understory species(nine species)were higher in the rainy season than in the dry season.However,in the rainy season,the recruitment rate of seedlings was higher for canopy tree species than for understory tree species.In addition,relative growth rate of seedlings was higher in the canopy species than in understory seedlings in the dry season.We also observed that,in both rainy and dry seasons,mortality rate of seedlings was higher for canopy species than for understory species.Overall,canopy tree species appear to have evolved a flexible strategy to adapt to the seasonal changes of a monsoon climate.In contrast,understory tree species seem to have adopted a conservative strategy.Specifically,these species mainly release seedlings in the rainy season and maintain relatively stable populations with a lower mortality rate and recruitment rate in both dry and rainy seasons.Our study suggests that canopy and understory seedling populations growing in forest understory may respond to future climate change scenarios with distinct regeneration strategies.

Impacts of Human Activities and Season on Species Diversity and Abundance of Butterflies in Mpanga Kipengere Game Reserve and Surrounding Farmlands, Tanzania

Maintaining natural habitats is crucial for the preservation of insects and other species that indicate environmental changes. However, the Mpanga/Kipengere Game Reserve and its surrounding farmlands are facing disturbance due to human activities, which is putting many wildlife species, particularly larger mammals, at risk. To determine the impact of human activities on butterfly species diversity and abundance in the reserve and its surrounding areas, we conducted a study from November 2021 to October 2023. We collected butterfly data using transect walks and baited traps in two habitat types. Our study yielded 2799 butterfly Individuals ranging in 124 species divided into five families habitat, season, and anthropogenic factors are significant environmental variables influencing species diversity and abundance of butterflies. Therefore, it’s important to protect habitat and dry-season water for the conservation of invertebrates such as butterflies. Our study findings provide essential information for ecological monitoring and future assessment of the Mpanga/Kipengere Game Reserve ecosystem health.

Degree of shade tolerance shapes seasonality of chlorophyll, nitrogen and phosphorus levels of trees and herbs in a temperate deciduous forest

Forest productivity is closely linked to seasonal variations and vertical differentiation in leaf traits.However,leaf structural and chemical traits variation among co-existing species,and plant functional types within the canopy are poorly quantified.In this study,the seasonality of leaf chlorophyll,nitrogen(N),and phosphorus(P)were quantified vertically along the canopy of four major tree species and two types of herbs in a temperate deciduous forest.The role of shade tolerance in shaping the seasonal variation and vertical differentiation was examined.During the entire season,chlorophyll content showed a distinct asymmetric unimodal pattern for all species,with greater chlorophyll levels in autumn than in spring,and the timing of peak chlorophyll per leaf area gradually decreased as shade tolerance increased.Chlorophyll a:b ratios gradually decreased with increasing shade tolerance.Leaf N and P contents sharply declined during leaf expansion,remained steady in the mature stage and decreased again during leaf senescence.Over the seasons,the lower canopy layer had significantly higher chlorophyll per leaf mass but not chlorophyll per leaf area than the upper canopy layer regardless of degree of shade tolerance.However,N and P per leaf area of intermediate shade-tolerant and fully shade-tolerant tree species were significantly higher in the upper canopy than in the lower.Seasonal variations in N:P ratios suggest changes in N or P limitation.These findings indicate that shade tolerance is a key feature shaping inter-specific differences in leaf chlorophyll,N,and P contents as well as their seasonality in temperate deciduous forests,which have significant implications for modeling leaf photosynthesis and ecosystem production.

Tea Production Response to Seasonal Rainfall Variability: Evidence from Rwanda

Tea is a very important cash crop in Rwanda, as it provides crucial income and employment for farmers in poor rural areas. From 2017 to 2020, this study was intended to determine the impact of seasonal rainfall on tea output in Rwanda while still considering temperature, plot size (land), and fertiliser for tea plantations in three of Rwanda’s western, southern, and northern provinces, western province with “Gisovu” and “Nyabihu”, southern with “Kitabi”, and northern with “Mulindi” tea company. The study tested the level of statistical significance of all considered variables in different formulation of panel data models to assess individual behaviour of independent variables that would affect tea production. According to this study, a positive change in rainfall of 1 mm will increase tea production by 0.215 percentage points of tons of fresh leaves. Rainfall is a statistically significant variable among all variables with a positive impact on tea output Qitin Rwanda’s Western, Southern, and Northern provinces. Rainfall availability favourably affects tea output and supports our claim. Therefore, there is a need for collaboration efforts towards developing sustainable adaptation and mitigation options against climate change, targeting tea farming and the government to ensure that tea policy reforms are targeted towards raising the competitiveness of Rwandan tea at local and global market.

Seasonal variation of melatonin secretion across various segments of the gastrointestinal tract in rats

Objective To investigate whether melatonin(MT)secretion in different parts of the gastrointestinal tract(GIT)exhibits seasonal variations and its correlation with immune regulation.Methods Sixty Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into control and model groups,and the pineal gland was removed in the model group.Stomach,jejunum,ileum,and colon tissues were obtained during the spring equinox,summer solstice,beginning of autumn,autumn equinox,and winter solstice.The levels of MT,MT receptors(MR),arylalkylamine N-acetyltransferase(AANAT),hydroxyindole-O-methyltransferase(HIOMT),interleukin-2(IL-2),and interleukin-10(IL-10)in the GIT were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.Results Except for the stomach,the jejunum,ileum,and the colon showed seasonal tendencies in MT secretion.In the control group,MT secretion in the jejunum and ileum was the highest in the long summer,and colonic MT secretion was the highest in winter.In the model group,MT levels in the colon were highest in the summer.The seasonal rhythms of the MR,AANAT,HIOMT,IL-2,and IL-10 in the colon were roughly similar to those of MT,and changed accordingly after pinealectomy.Conclusions Gastrointestinal MT secretion is related to seasonal changes,and MT secretion in each intestinal segment is influenced by different seasons.The biological effects of MT in the gut are inextricably linked to the mediation of MR,and a hormone-receptor linkage exists between MT and MR.The effect of seasonal changes on the gastrointestinal immune system may be mediated through the regulation of seasonal secretion of MT.

Downscaling Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts over East Africa with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that compare different CNN configurations and deployed the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead seasonal forecasts of June–July–August–September(JJAS) precipitation from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUIST-CFS1.0) for 1982–2020. We also perform hyper-parameter optimization and introduce predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive precipitation over the East Africa region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results show that the CNN-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme precipitation spatial patterns. Besides, CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme and spell indicators and reduces the significant relative biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of East Africa. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal precipitation predictions over East Africa,particularly in providing improved forecast products which are essential for end users.

Seasonal Variation of the Sea Surface Temperature Growth Rate of ENSO

El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) exhibits a distinctive phase-locking characteristic, first expressed during its onset in boreal spring, developing during summer and autumn, reaching its peak towards winter, and decaying over the next spring. Several studies have demonstrated that this feature arises as a result of seasonal variation in the growth rate of ENSO as expressed by the sea surface temperature(SST). The bias towards simulating the phase locking of ENSO by many state-of-the-art climate models is also attributed to the unrealistic depiction of the growth rate. In this study, the seasonal variation of SST growth rate in the Ni?o-3.4 region(5°S–5°N, 120°–170°W) is estimated in detail based on the mixed layer heat budget equation and recharge oscillator model during 1981–2020. It is suggested that the consideration of a variable mixed layer depth is essential to its diagnostic process. The estimated growth rate has a remarkable seasonal cycle with minimum rates occurring in spring and maximum rates evident in autumn. More specifically, the growth rate derived from the meridional advection(surface heat flux) is positive(negative) throughout the year. Vertical diffusion generally makes a negative contribution to the evolution of growth rate and the magnitude of vertical entrainment represents the smallest contributor. Analysis indicates that the zonal advective feedback is regulated by the meridional immigration of the intertropical convergence zone, which approaches its southernmost extent in February and progresses to its northernmost location in September, and dominates the seasonal variation of the SST growth rate.

Effect of Seasonal Variations on the Behavior of Flexible Pavements in Burkina Faso: Towards Alternating and Periodic Loading of Multi-Axle Heavy Goods Vehicles for Road Durability

Bituminous materials are heat-sensitive, and their mechanical properties vary with temperature. This variation in properties is not without consequences on the performance of flexible road structures under the repeated passage of multi-axles. This study determines the influence of seasonal variations on the rate of permanent deformation, the rut depth of flexible pavements and the effect of alternating loading of heavy goods vehicles following the temperature variations on the durability of roads. Thus, an ambient and pavement surface temperature measurement was carried out in 2022. The temperature profile at different layers of the modelled pavement, the evaluation of deformation rates and rutting depth were determined using several models. The results show that the permanent deformation and rutting rates are higher at the level of the bituminous concrete layer than at the level of the asphalt gravel layer because the stresses decrease from the surface to the depth of the pavement. On the other hand, the variations in these rates, permanent deformations and ruts between the hot and so-called cold periods are more pronounced in the bitumen gravel than in bituminous concrete, showing that gravel bitumen is more sensitive to temperature variations than bituminous concrete despite its higher rigidity. Of these results, we suggested a periodic and alternating loading of the different types of heavy goods vehicles. These loads consist of fully applying the WAEMU standards with a tolerance of 15% during periods of high and low temperatures. This regulation has increased 2 to 3 times in the durability of roadways depending on the type of heavy goods vehicle.

Fish Assemblage and Abundance Distribution in Nanji Islands Marine Nature Reserve in Relation to Season Change

The fishing survey station located in the warm waters of the East China Sea is one of the abundant fishery resources of waters;with a large number of economic fish breeding grounds and economic juvenile feeding grounds. Several fish species according to this bottom trawl survey results which appear in the annual survey from winter to autumn give us a total of 58 species, which have appeared throughout the year. But the vast majority of species appears only in certain seasons, according to the sea fish survey and based on seasonal migratory species or species mainly small endemic species. The survey of fish is tropical and subtropical warm water species and warm temperate species, and the history of the area has several types of 397 different species. There are many reasons, in addition to recent years, human disturbance and adverse consequences of environmental changes brought about, but also with the relevant sampling methods and sampler time, the survey sampled only trawl based, from Ping yang Ocean and Fisheries Bureau, the waters are still other jobs method net, gill nets, fishing industry, etc. Survey results show that the type of fish in the summer (58 species) > spring (55 species) > winter (51 species) > autumn (42 species). The type of season was among spring to summer rose, summer to autumn decline. The survey found that in the reef area of the Nanji Islands, no one species of fish is the dominant species throughout the year (according to the dominant species, each species is dominant only in one season). From the dominant species turnover accounting for the four seasons, in winter it has 53.72% of the total biomass or annual biomass, spring it has 41.53% of the overall biomass, summer it has 31.85% and autumn it has 38.56% of total biomass. Visible, seasonal succession of dominant species of fish phenomenon is very obvious, especially in the spring and winter, summer transfers dominate species at this stage show the greatest change, but winter, the transfer of this dominant species changes in minimal. Seasonal changes from biomass and the average annual marine fish survey biomass were 4832.25 g/h. From different seasons, the average biomass in winter (10779.88 g/h) > of the average biomass in spring (3624.1 g/hour) > of the mean biomass in autumn (3158 g/h) > the average Biomass in summer (1767 g/h). All of them show significant seasonal variation of the biomass, in winter and spring, the biomass is generally not high, but significantly higher than in the summer and autumn seasons. Each season, around the coast of southern Zhejiang, is less than the biomass and other catches off, which involves investigating sea location, size range, and the survey ship different network related tools. Another change from the area of biomass, some studies found that the survey of four-season fish of waters above the biological capacity of several kilograms only in some stations, namely stations and the highest biomass in summer appeared in stations 3, 7 and 11. In autumn the highest biomass appeared in stations 3, 6, 20 and 23.

Seasonal Performance of Solar Power Plants in the Sahel Region: A Study in Senegal, West Africa

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the seasonal performance of 20 MW solar power plants in Senegal. The analysis revealed notable seasonal variations in the performance of all stations. The most significant yields are recorded in spring, autumn and winter, with values ranging from 5 to 7.51 kWh/kWp/day for the reference yield and 4.02 to 7.58 kWh/kWp/day for the final yield. These fluctuations are associated with intense solar activity during the dry season and clear skies, indicating peak production. Conversely, minimum values are recorded during the rainy season from June to September, with a final yield of 3.86 kWh/kW/day due to dust, clouds and high temperatures. The performance ratio analysis shows seasonal dynamics throughout the year with rates ranging from 77.40% to 95.79%, reinforcing reliability and optimal utilization of installed capacity. The results of the capacity factor vary significantly, with March, April, May, and sometimes October standing out as periods of optimal performance, with 16% for Kahone, 16% for Bokhol, 18% for Malicounda and 23% for Sakal. Total losses from solar power plants show similar seasonal trends standing out for high loss levels from June to July, reaching up to 3.35 kWh/kWp/day in June. However, using solar trackers at Sakal has increased production by up to 25%, demonstrating the operational stability of this innovative technology compared with the plants fixed panel. Finally, comparing these results with international studies confirms the outstanding efficiency of Senegalese solar power plants, other installations around the world.

A Hybrid Model Evaluation Based on PCA Regression Schemes Applied to Seasonal Precipitation Forecast

Possible changes in the structure and seasonal variability of the subtropical ridge may lead to changes in the rainfall’s variability modes over Caribbean region. This generates additional difficulties around water resource planning, therefore, obtaining seasonal prediction models that allow these variations to be characterized in detail, it’s a concern, specially for island states. This research proposes the construction of statistical-dynamic models based on PCA regression methods. It is used as predictand the monthly precipitation accumulated, while the predictors (6) are extracted from the ECMWF-SEAS5 ensemble mean forecasts with a lag of one month with respect to the target month. In the construction of the models, two sequential training schemes are evaluated, obtaining that only the shorter preserves the seasonal characteristics of the predictand. The evaluation metrics used, where cell-point and dichotomous methodologies are combined, suggest that the predictors related to sea surface temperatures do not adequately represent the seasonal variability of the predictand, however, others such as the temperature at 850 hPa and the Outgoing Longwave Radiation are represented with a good approximation regardless of the model chosen. In this sense, the models built with the nearest neighbor methodology were the most efficient. Using the individual models with the best results, an ensemble is built that allows improving the individual skill of the models selected as members by correcting the underestimation of precipitation in the dynamic model during the wet season, although problems of overestimation persist for thresholds lower than 50 mm.