Analysis of the Influence Factors of Grain Supply-Demand Gap in China

Based on the analysis of the grain supply and demand gap’s current situation in China, this paper establishes an indicator system for the influence factors of grain supply and demand gap. Then this paper calculates the correlation degree between the main grain varieties’ supply and demand gap and its influence factors. The results show that sown area and unit yield have the greatest impact on wheat supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and unit yield have the greatest impact on corn supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and agricultural mechanization level have the greatest impact on the supply and demand gap of soybean and rice. From the analysis results, we can obtain the difference between the factors affecting the grain supply and demand gap, and provide a certain theoretical basis and new ideas for the balance of grain supply and demand in China.

The Supply-Demand Analysis and Mechanism Innovation of Chinese Rural Public Goods

The connotation of rural public goods is expounded.The rural public goods refer to the products and labors that satisfy the production and living of rural residents,economic growth and social progress.The rural public goods is characterized by non-excludability,non-competitiveness and indispensability of other general public goods.The supply situation of Chinese government to rural public goods is analyzed,as well as the demand situation of rural public goods,which includes farmers' demand on training,the assistance demand of rural weak groups,farmers' demand on comfortable living conditions and farmers' demand on "soft" public goods.The paths for innovating the supply mechanism of rural public goods are put forward,which cover perfecting the decision mechanism of public goods supply;scientifically distributing the supply responsibility of rural public goods;facilitating the reform of each supporting equipment and exploring the multiple capital collecting channels of rural public goods.

Analysis of China’s Crude Oil Supply and Demand in the Year 2010 and the Year 2020

Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China＇s oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.

Characteristic analysis and forecast of electricity supply and demand in APEC

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)comprises of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy,accounting for 60.3%of primary energy supply,50.0%of final energy consumption,and 63.0%of electricity generation worldwide in 2016.This study discusses the primary energy supply and final energy consumption situation of the APEC and analyzes the characteristics of electricity in terms of its generation structure based on fuel,consumption by the end-use sector,access to electricity,and so on.The renewable energy and electricity generation projections up to 2030 based on trends in the APEC are also assessed.It is seen that electricity in final energy consumption has been on an upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of about 4.8%during 2006–2016,in 2016,its share reached 24.3%.The industry sector consumes the largest share of electricity,accounting for about 45.5%in 2016.Coal supply and consumption peaked in 2011 and then began to decline,while renewable energy has been on an upward trend,with its primary energy supply share increasing from 4.80%in 2010 to 6.29%in 2016.Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power are on the verge of costing less than the operating cost of existing coal-fired plants in 2018.In the APEC’s target scenario in which renewable energy is doubled,the predicted net growth from 2017 to 2030 of solar,wind,and hydro power is about 963,497,and 157 GW,respectively,and to reach this target,the APEC economies need to accelerate renewable energy development.

Analysis on the Situation of Power Supply and Demand in Shandong

In the first half of 2007, the power industry in Shandongprovince continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum.The gross electricity consumption amounted to 121.25 TWh,14.4% higher over that in the same period of last year. The totalinstalled capacity reached 53.29 GW. It was expected that bythe end of 2007, the gross electricity consumption in Shan-dong would reach 260 TWh, increasing by 14.4% on ayear-on-year basis; the maximum load would reach 40.

供需匹配视角下老工业区绿地游憩服务的分异特征及优化研究--以哈尔滨香坊老工业区为例

伴随着城市化发展而出现的一系列城市生态问题和生态扰动,其根源在于生态系统服务与人类需求间的不平衡。老工业区由于绿地的建设条件、数量规模及空间布局等限制条件,均无法适应当代城市发展。退休职工的聚居也使居民对休闲游憩的需求急剧增加,导致游憩服务供需矛盾进一步凸显。因此,以哈尔滨香坊老工业区为例,构建适配于老工业区绿地游憩服务供需量化及二者匹配分析的方法体系,为生态系统服务供需分析和老工业区绿地评估提供新的思路。首先,对供需分异极端化地块进行分类解析,明确了绿地优化的重点对象,即Ⅴ类和Ⅰ类供需分异区,为老工业区的绿地建设提供时序依据。其次,基于匹配结果,提出针对性优化策略,强调提升边缘闲置空间的供给能力和内部附属绿地的多功能性,以此满足老工业区集中性和日常性的高游憩活动需求,最终实现城市整体的可持续协调发展和老工业区人居环境质量的提升。

Risk Analysis and Solution Recommendations on Uranium Supply forNuclear Power in China

The Chinese government has set ambitious goals for the development of nuclear power, which is under the risks from uranium supply shortage. The supply and demand of uranium resources both domestically and abroad is firstly analyzed in the paper. The supply can still meet the demand in the short run, but the risk of shortage may exist in the long run. Moreover, the lack oJuranium resources will exist globally no matter at present or in the future. ThereJore, the main.factor restraining the nuclear power development in China is the short supply of uranium. Finally, recommendations are put Jorward such as strengthening the exploration and production of domestic uranium, cooperating with foreign enterprises in the exploration of uraniam mines, building the reserves, and proactively developing the fourth generation of nuclear power technology and so on.

基于文本匹配-组态优化的两阶段技术供需匹配方法研究

技术供需匹配作为技术转移的关键环节,是提高技术转移效率、加快产业升级、实现科技强国的重要保障。针对技术供需匹配过程中匹配结果过多和影响因素复杂两大挑战,本文基于前期技术文本内容匹配方法和技术转移影响因素的研究成果,对技术供需匹配过程进行详细解析,提出了基于文本匹配-组态优化的两阶段技术供需匹配模型;采用近年发布的技术需求信息进行实验,在真实技术市场对模型进行验证。向技术需求方进行技术成果推荐后,收集这些技术需求方的反馈。反馈结果表明,本文提出的供需匹配模型具有一定的准确性和可行性,可以在实践中为科技服务平台的建设提供依据。

托幼一体化背景下普惠托育供需预测及保障路径探讨--基于北京的研究

出生人口规模持续下滑导致全国大量幼儿园关停、幼师转行,与此同时,普惠性托位短缺使得婴幼儿家庭虽然入托意愿强烈但实际送托不多。理论上,通过幼儿园办托实现托幼一体化,不仅能将闲置的学前学位有效用于增加普惠托位供给,还能最大效率消化过剩学前产能。然而,实践中普惠幼儿园能释放多少闲置学位、能否填补普惠托育供需缺口尚需检验。基于“六普”和“七普”数据,采用队列要素法,以北京为例,预测2024—2050年学龄前人口规模,测算普惠托育供需缺口并探讨其保障路径。结果表明,未来普惠托育需求增长旺盛,供需缺口将持续扩大,而普惠幼儿园闲置学位逐年增多,鼓励幼儿园办托能有效弥补普惠托位短缺难题,普惠幼儿园只要将10%的闲置学前学位合理转化就可以满足普惠托育需求。为推进托幼一体化建设,建议明确市区两级教育和卫健部门的职责分工,适当放宽市场限价、给予普惠幼儿园定价自由权以确保机构财务可持续,注重顶层设计、强化师资培训、满足家庭多样化需求,加强定额成本核算和绩效管理、优化补贴方式和标准等。

Supply Chain Demand Forecast Based on SSA-XGBoost Model

Supply chain management usually faces problems such as high empty rate of transportation, unreasonable inventory management, and large material consumption caused by inaccurate market demand forecasts. To solve these problems, using artificial intelligence and big data technology to achieve market demand forecasting and intelligent decision-making is becoming a strategic technology trend of supply chain management in the future. Firstly, this paper makes a visual analysis of the historical data of the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU);Then, the characteristic factors affecting the future demand are constructed from the storage level, product level, historical usage of SKU, etc;Finally, a supply chain demand forecasting algorithm based on SSA-XGBoost model has proposed around three aspects of feature engineering, parameter optimization and model integration, and is compared with other machine learning models. The experiment shows that the forecasting result of SSA-XGBoost forecasting model is highly consistent with the actual value, so it is of practical significance to adopt this forecasting model to solve the supply chain demand forecasting problem.

Development and Utilization of the World＇s and China＇s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world＇s and China＇s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world＇s and China＇s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources （especially iron ores and copper ores） are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world＇s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons （Gt）, 5.0-6.0 million tons （Mt）, 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China＇s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores （crude steel）, potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores （crude steel） will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite （primary aluminum）, 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China＇s demand for iron ores （crude steel）, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world＇s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015-2035, China＇s accumulative demand for iron ores （crude steel） will be 20.313 Gt （13.429 Gt）, 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt （0.616 Gt） of bauxite （primary aluminum）, 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world＇s YOY （YOY） accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China＇s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary （mine） mineral products in 2015-2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper, 1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of （mine） lead, 0.109 Gt of （mine） zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world＇s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000-2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China＇s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015-2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015-2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap （iron ores） is 3.27 Gt （5.08 Gt）, 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China＇s bulk mineral resources in 2015-2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China＇s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%, -0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly. （1） The demand peak of China＇s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015-2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak. （2） The supply-demand contradiction of China＇s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities. （3） China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of ＂reducing excess production capacity＂. （4） In accordance with the national strategic deployment of ＂One Belt One Road＂, China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly. （5） It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling. （6） China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.

Oil and Gas Supply and Demand in China and Its Development Strategy

The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China＇s future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China＇s oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.

国家图书馆文旅融合服务供需分析研究:19个图书馆的实践解析

以19个国家图书馆为研究对象,采用网络调查法、案例分析法和文献研究法,梳理国家图书馆文旅融合服务供需两端相关理论并提炼分析框架,基于框架归纳阐释四大实践特点并提出经验启示。国家图书馆文旅融合服务实践呈现国家典籍珍藏及展示、以人文吸引力为核心、用户导向的文旅服务、开放包容的文旅服务的特点。我国其他图书馆应充分借鉴国家图书馆文旅融合服务实践经验,强化馆藏资源质量基础支撑,以人文吸引力为重点发展方向,推动文旅融合服务全覆盖、个性化并营造开放包容服务环境。

智慧健康养老产业的现实需求与发展进路

智慧健康养老产业高质量发展是深入实施健康中国战略和积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的重要内容。基于智慧健康养老产业的供需分析框架,分析智慧健康养老产业的现实需求、供给现状,发现智慧健康养老产业供给不平衡、不充分,产业链环节衔接不当,智慧健康养老产品的数字鸿沟难以跨越,智慧健康养老服务的专业人才匮乏,政府和市场的协同合作机制不健全等。据此提出以需定供,提升产业供给质量;整合优势,构建稳定高效产业链;智享养老,推进数字无障碍建设;人才为本,夯实高素质专业队伍;协同发力,推动有效市场和有为政府更好结合等。

当前应坚定实行扩张性宏观经济政策

GDP增速面临下行压力和物价水平持续处于低位,本应促使决策者采取扩张性财政货币政策以刺激有效需求,但在许多行业存在“产能过剩”的情况下,消除“过剩产能”成为宏观经济政策的突出目标。实际上,宏观层面的“产能过剩”和有效需求不足是等价概念,即便考虑产业层面的结构失衡,政府在决定是否应该实行扩张性宏观经济政策时,依然应该看通胀和经济增速变化,而不应该受“产能过剩”的干扰。当前,中国经济既面临周期性问题,也存在结构性矛盾,实行扩张性宏观经济政策同结构性改革并不矛盾,而是相辅相成。目前来看,2024年实现GDP增长5%左右的目标面临较大挑战,为完成全年经济社会发展目标任务,应实行更具扩张性的财政货币政策,特别是财政政策。

河北省邢台市百泉泉域水资源供需平衡分析

为保证邢台市百泉泉域持续复涌,通过分析研究区域现状供、需水量情况,并预测该区域总需水量、地表水供水量、地下水供水量、非常规水和外调水量相关指标,定量分析水资源供需平衡。结果得出,上游水库的供水量可进一步置换泉域内生活、工业、农业用水及补充下游河道生态用水,各县(市、区)地下水开采量仍较高,而地表水实际利用量相对与地表水可供水量仍较低。建议该区域减少地下水开采量,科学合理分配利用地表水。

我国丁苯橡胶的供需现状及发展分析

分析了我国丁苯橡胶(SBR)的供需现状及发展前景。2023年,我国SBR的生产能力为1887 kt/a,表观消费量为1554 kt,预计2028年的生产能力和表观消费量将分别达到2200 kt/a和1700 kt。未来我国SBR产能将过剩,市场竞争更加激烈,今后要慎重新建或者扩建新产能,建议在完善现有生产技术的基础上,加快新产品和新技术的研究与开发,不断提高产品质量,降低生产成本,满足国内需求的同时积极开拓国外市场。

中国钾盐资源勘查趋势分析与展望

钾盐是中国紧缺的战略性矿产资源,对保障国家粮食安全、社会稳定和经济可持续发展等具有重要意义和深远影响。中国钾盐资源勘查开发近70年,通过一代又一代钾盐人的共同努力,在钾盐勘查开发利用领域取得了显著成效。但由于受到中国地质构造与古气候等因素、钾盐成矿及保存等条件的影响,中国钾盐找矿工作难度大。中国钾盐产量难以满足需求,长期依赖进口,对外依存度大于50%,供需形势紧张。近年来,国内钾盐勘查总投入整体呈现收紧趋势,探矿权、采矿权数量也逐年下降。本文主要立足于钾盐资源分布与生产格局等,分析了中国钾盐资源勘查开发所面临的国际竞争等,提出应充分发挥中国现有钾盐产业优势和市场优势,加强顶层设计和统筹谋划,用好国内国外两种资源,进一步推进“一带一路”沿线国家钾盐勘查开发的合作进程,保障中国钾盐资源安全;发挥创新驱动作用,培育钾盐勘查开发的新质生产力,克服国内资源短板,引领国际钾盐行业可持续高质量发展。

中国2024~2035年钾盐供需形势分析:基于矿床地质特征研究

粮食安全是国家安全的重要基础,而钾肥作为三大肥料之一,被誉为粮食的“粮食”。钾盐,作为生产钾肥的重要原料,对保障国家粮食安全至关重要。中国作为全球最大的钾盐消费国,面临国内钾盐查明保有资源储量不足和资源禀赋较差等挑战,持续增长的需求使得钾盐的对外依存度常年超过40%。因此,在国际局势复杂多变的背景下,如何保障中国钾盐资源供应安全,成为亟待解决的问题。本文综合分析了中国钾盐矿床类型、地质特征、资源储量、生产供应和消费现状,并利用“S”形模型和ARIMA模型预测了钾盐供需趋势,进而提出相关对策建议。研究表明:①中国钾盐资源主要赋存于第四纪盐湖卤水型钾盐矿床,其中98%的保有储量集中在青海和新疆等省区。国内钾盐储量品位较低,共伴生矿产较多。②我国钾盐资源开发利用主要集中在盐湖卤水型矿床。钾肥生产的链条较长,受地质条件、资源禀赋、气候和工程技术等诸多因素的影响,导致我国钾盐供应量的增长空间和潜力有限。预计2024~2035年,我国钾盐年产量(K_(2)O)在500~600万t。③2024~2035年,以高需求为特征的中国钾盐消费将长期存在。根据预测结果,2024~2035年,中国钾盐需求量将呈现先增后降的趋势,2025年达到峰值1350万t,2035年则降至1020万t;④尽管中国钾盐的对外依存度从2002年的90%降至2023年的49%,但未来每年的供需缺口仍将超过400万t。预计2024~2035年,中国钾盐对外依存度将维持在50%左右,供需缺口长期存在。因此,提出加强钾盐地质勘查,实现找矿突破,强化科技创新,提高资源利用率,充分利用国际市场钾盐资源,支持企业获取境外钾盐资源权益等建议。本文获得的认识结论、对策建议对我国编制钾盐资源战略规划,支撑国家钾盐资源决策等具有一定的参考价值。

RESEARCH ON MUNICIPAL WATER DEMANDS FORECAST

Based on the changing law of municipal water demand,a trigonometric function model for short-term water demand forecast is established using the time-series analysis approach.The method for forecasting water demand during holidays and under unexpected events is also presented.Meanwhile,a computer software is developed.Through actual application,this method performs well and has high accuracy,so it can be applied to the daily operation of a water distribution system and lay a foundation for on-line optimal operation.