Analysis of the Influence Factors of Grain Supply-Demand Gap in China

Based on the analysis of the grain supply and demand gap’s current situation in China, this paper establishes an indicator system for the influence factors of grain supply and demand gap. Then this paper calculates the correlation degree between the main grain varieties’ supply and demand gap and its influence factors. The results show that sown area and unit yield have the greatest impact on wheat supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and unit yield have the greatest impact on corn supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and agricultural mechanization level have the greatest impact on the supply and demand gap of soybean and rice. From the analysis results, we can obtain the difference between the factors affecting the grain supply and demand gap, and provide a certain theoretical basis and new ideas for the balance of grain supply and demand in China.

Analysis of China’s Crude Oil Supply and Demand in the Year 2010 and the Year 2020

Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China＇s oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.

The Supply-Demand Analysis and Mechanism Innovation of Chinese Rural Public Goods

The connotation of rural public goods is expounded.The rural public goods refer to the products and labors that satisfy the production and living of rural residents,economic growth and social progress.The rural public goods is characterized by non-excludability,non-competitiveness and indispensability of other general public goods.The supply situation of Chinese government to rural public goods is analyzed,as well as the demand situation of rural public goods,which includes farmers' demand on training,the assistance demand of rural weak groups,farmers' demand on comfortable living conditions and farmers' demand on "soft" public goods.The paths for innovating the supply mechanism of rural public goods are put forward,which cover perfecting the decision mechanism of public goods supply;scientifically distributing the supply responsibility of rural public goods;facilitating the reform of each supporting equipment and exploring the multiple capital collecting channels of rural public goods.

Characteristic analysis and forecast of electricity supply and demand in APEC

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)comprises of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy,accounting for 60.3%of primary energy supply,50.0%of final energy consumption,and 63.0%of electricity generation worldwide in 2016.This study discusses the primary energy supply and final energy consumption situation of the APEC and analyzes the characteristics of electricity in terms of its generation structure based on fuel,consumption by the end-use sector,access to electricity,and so on.The renewable energy and electricity generation projections up to 2030 based on trends in the APEC are also assessed.It is seen that electricity in final energy consumption has been on an upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of about 4.8%during 2006–2016,in 2016,its share reached 24.3%.The industry sector consumes the largest share of electricity,accounting for about 45.5%in 2016.Coal supply and consumption peaked in 2011 and then began to decline,while renewable energy has been on an upward trend,with its primary energy supply share increasing from 4.80%in 2010 to 6.29%in 2016.Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power are on the verge of costing less than the operating cost of existing coal-fired plants in 2018.In the APEC’s target scenario in which renewable energy is doubled,the predicted net growth from 2017 to 2030 of solar,wind,and hydro power is about 963,497,and 157 GW,respectively,and to reach this target,the APEC economies need to accelerate renewable energy development.

Analysis on the Situation of Power Supply and Demand in Shandong

In the first half of 2007, the power industry in Shandongprovince continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum.The gross electricity consumption amounted to 121.25 TWh,14.4% higher over that in the same period of last year. The totalinstalled capacity reached 53.29 GW. It was expected that bythe end of 2007, the gross electricity consumption in Shan-dong would reach 260 TWh, increasing by 14.4% on ayear-on-year basis; the maximum load would reach 40.

Development and Utilization of the World＇s and China＇s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world＇s and China＇s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world＇s and China＇s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources （especially iron ores and copper ores） are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world＇s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons （Gt）, 5.0-6.0 million tons （Mt）, 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China＇s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores （crude steel）, potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores （crude steel） will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite （primary aluminum）, 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China＇s demand for iron ores （crude steel）, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world＇s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015-2035, China＇s accumulative demand for iron ores （crude steel） will be 20.313 Gt （13.429 Gt）, 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt （0.616 Gt） of bauxite （primary aluminum）, 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world＇s YOY （YOY） accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China＇s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary （mine） mineral products in 2015-2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper, 1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of （mine） lead, 0.109 Gt of （mine） zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world＇s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000-2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China＇s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015-2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015-2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap （iron ores） is 3.27 Gt （5.08 Gt）, 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China＇s bulk mineral resources in 2015-2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China＇s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%, -0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly. （1） The demand peak of China＇s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015-2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak. （2） The supply-demand contradiction of China＇s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities. （3） China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of ＂reducing excess production capacity＂. （4） In accordance with the national strategic deployment of ＂One Belt One Road＂, China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly. （5） It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling. （6） China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.

Oil and Gas Supply and Demand in China and Its Development Strategy

The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China＇s future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China＇s oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.

Risk Analysis and Solution Recommendations on Uranium Supply forNuclear Power in China

The Chinese government has set ambitious goals for the development of nuclear power, which is under the risks from uranium supply shortage. The supply and demand of uranium resources both domestically and abroad is firstly analyzed in the paper. The supply can still meet the demand in the short run, but the risk of shortage may exist in the long run. Moreover, the lack oJuranium resources will exist globally no matter at present or in the future. ThereJore, the main.factor restraining the nuclear power development in China is the short supply of uranium. Finally, recommendations are put Jorward such as strengthening the exploration and production of domestic uranium, cooperating with foreign enterprises in the exploration of uraniam mines, building the reserves, and proactively developing the fourth generation of nuclear power technology and so on.

Supply Chain Demand Forecast Based on SSA-XGBoost Model

Supply chain management usually faces problems such as high empty rate of transportation, unreasonable inventory management, and large material consumption caused by inaccurate market demand forecasts. To solve these problems, using artificial intelligence and big data technology to achieve market demand forecasting and intelligent decision-making is becoming a strategic technology trend of supply chain management in the future. Firstly, this paper makes a visual analysis of the historical data of the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU);Then, the characteristic factors affecting the future demand are constructed from the storage level, product level, historical usage of SKU, etc;Finally, a supply chain demand forecasting algorithm based on SSA-XGBoost model has proposed around three aspects of feature engineering, parameter optimization and model integration, and is compared with other machine learning models. The experiment shows that the forecasting result of SSA-XGBoost forecasting model is highly consistent with the actual value, so it is of practical significance to adopt this forecasting model to solve the supply chain demand forecasting problem.

RESEARCH ON MUNICIPAL WATER DEMANDS FORECAST

Based on the changing law of municipal water demand,a trigonometric function model for short-term water demand forecast is established using the time-series analysis approach.The method for forecasting water demand during holidays and under unexpected events is also presented.Meanwhile,a computer software is developed.Through actual application,this method performs well and has high accuracy,so it can be applied to the daily operation of a water distribution system and lay a foundation for on-line optimal operation.

国家图书馆文旅融合服务供需分析研究:19个图书馆的实践解析

以19个国家图书馆为研究对象,采用网络调查法、案例分析法和文献研究法,梳理国家图书馆文旅融合服务供需两端相关理论并提炼分析框架,基于框架归纳阐释四大实践特点并提出经验启示。国家图书馆文旅融合服务实践呈现国家典籍珍藏及展示、以人文吸引力为核心、用户导向的文旅服务、开放包容的文旅服务的特点。我国其他图书馆应充分借鉴国家图书馆文旅融合服务实践经验,强化馆藏资源质量基础支撑,以人文吸引力为重点发展方向,推动文旅融合服务全覆盖、个性化并营造开放包容服务环境。

智慧健康养老产业的现实需求与发展进路

智慧健康养老产业高质量发展是深入实施健康中国战略和积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的重要内容。基于智慧健康养老产业的供需分析框架,分析智慧健康养老产业的现实需求、供给现状,发现智慧健康养老产业供给不平衡、不充分,产业链环节衔接不当,智慧健康养老产品的数字鸿沟难以跨越,智慧健康养老服务的专业人才匮乏,政府和市场的协同合作机制不健全等。据此提出以需定供,提升产业供给质量;整合优势,构建稳定高效产业链;智享养老,推进数字无障碍建设;人才为本,夯实高素质专业队伍;协同发力,推动有效市场和有为政府更好结合等。

河北省邢台市百泉泉域水资源供需平衡分析

为保证邢台市百泉泉域持续复涌,通过分析研究区域现状供、需水量情况,并预测该区域总需水量、地表水供水量、地下水供水量、非常规水和外调水量相关指标,定量分析水资源供需平衡。结果得出,上游水库的供水量可进一步置换泉域内生活、工业、农业用水及补充下游河道生态用水,各县(市、区)地下水开采量仍较高,而地表水实际利用量相对与地表水可供水量仍较低。建议该区域减少地下水开采量,科学合理分配利用地表水。

我国丁苯橡胶的供需现状及发展分析

分析了我国丁苯橡胶(SBR)的供需现状及发展前景。2023年,我国SBR的生产能力为1887 kt/a,表观消费量为1554 kt,预计2028年的生产能力和表观消费量将分别达到2200 kt/a和1700 kt。未来我国SBR产能将过剩,市场竞争更加激烈,今后要慎重新建或者扩建新产能,建议在完善现有生产技术的基础上,加快新产品和新技术的研究与开发,不断提高产品质量,降低生产成本,满足国内需求的同时积极开拓国外市场。

供需匹配视角下老工业区绿地游憩服务的分异特征及优化研究--以哈尔滨香坊老工业区为例

伴随着城市化发展而出现的一系列城市生态问题和生态扰动,其根源在于生态系统服务与人类需求间的不平衡。老工业区由于绿地的建设条件、数量规模及空间布局等限制条件,均无法适应当代城市发展。退休职工的聚居也使居民对休闲游憩的需求急剧增加,导致游憩服务供需矛盾进一步凸显。因此,以哈尔滨香坊老工业区为例,构建适配于老工业区绿地游憩服务供需量化及二者匹配分析的方法体系,为生态系统服务供需分析和老工业区绿地评估提供新的思路。首先,对供需分异极端化地块进行分类解析,明确了绿地优化的重点对象,即Ⅴ类和Ⅰ类供需分异区,为老工业区的绿地建设提供时序依据。其次,基于匹配结果,提出针对性优化策略,强调提升边缘闲置空间的供给能力和内部附属绿地的多功能性,以此满足老工业区集中性和日常性的高游憩活动需求,最终实现城市整体的可持续协调发展和老工业区人居环境质量的提升。

“银发经济”背景下银川市健康养老产业探析

为积极应对人口老龄化,我国出台了“银发经济”的专项政策。银川市在西部省份健康养老工作中走在前列,是多项健康养老工作的试点城市。但是,在健康养老产业发展过程中仍然存在供需矛盾突出、“银发经济”活力未充分释放、老年群体参与度低等多种困境。银川市应聚焦养老金融、推进产业融合以激发“银发经济”新活力,布局养老+多元产业新赛道,培育专业健康养老人才新队伍,并通过科技赋能促进健康养老服务的新发展。

基于GWR的中国省域尺度铁路货运供需协调度时空演化规律

为探究铁路货运供需耦合协调发展的影响因素及其时空演化规律,基于2010年、2015年和2020年31个省份铁路货运相关统计数据,构建了包含19项需求侧和17项供给侧影响因素的供需协调度指标库.在结合相关系数法和变异系数法对指标库中的影响因素进行筛选后,利用熵权法确定权重并计算省域耦合协调度.基于地理加权回归模型(Geographically Weighted Regression,GWR)构建铁路货运供需协调时空分析模型,以解释我国铁路货运供需耦合协调度的省级区域差异及其时空演化规律,并提出障碍度模型分析制约铁路货运供需协调发展的主要因素.研究结果表明:在样本考察期内铁路货运供需耦合协调度空间分布具有集聚性,影响因素对铁路货运供需耦合协调度的影响程度具有空间非稳态特征,且发生重心的空间转移和分化现象,其中东北、华北地区供需耦合度较高,西部地区供需耦合度低;铁路货物周转量和货运量为影响供需协调发展的关键障碍因素.研究结果可为优化我国铁路货运网络、促进货运协调发展提供理论依据.

基于家庭视角的婴幼儿照护服务现状及需求分析

目的:从婴幼儿照护服务需求方角度出发,了解四川省0-3岁婴幼儿家庭照护服务的需求特征及影响因素,为制定符合四川省实际情况的婴幼儿照护服务政策提供数据支撑和对策建议。方法:采用自编问卷,以四川省0-3岁婴幼儿家长为调查对象,通过随机抽样调查,收集婴幼儿照护服务相关数据资料,剖析不同家庭背景需求特征,共回收有效问卷24 376份。结果:调查结果显示,孩子越少、年龄越大、家庭收入越高、母亲受教育程度越高、父母有工作的家庭更愿意选择将孩子送至托育机构接受照护(P <0.01)。婴幼儿家庭倾向于选择幼儿园托班,收费在3 000元以下,全日制早送晚接,提供餐食且离家近的托育机构。准备送托家庭希望婴幼儿照护服务人员的学历在大专及以上,更看重其生活照护能力。无送托计划的家庭不愿送托的首要原因是“认为孩子太小”,此部分家庭中,孩子的主要照护人受教育程度在高中及以下的占83.83%。结论:四川省不同家庭背景在婴幼儿照护服务需求上存在差异,提示应以家庭意愿为导向,大力发展多元普惠托育、鼓励提供多样化托育服务、多途径规范托育机构管理、增强家庭科学育儿能力,不断提升照护服务质效,为婴幼儿健康成长保驾护航。

新型城镇化建设对释放居民消费潜力的影响研究

利用2007—2019年中国280个城市的面板数据,在测度新型城镇化建设水平和居民消费潜力的基础上实证研究新型城镇化建设对居民消费潜力的释放作用。研究发现:新型城镇化建设能够在供给侧实现消费市场的扩容升级,在需求侧促进居民收入提升和消费保障增加,从而充分释放居民消费潜力。进一步分析表明,新型城镇化建设对居民消费潜力的释放作用在东部和东北地区更强,同时,产业集聚程度和数字经济发展水平也对城市居民消费潜力的释放产生了正向调节作用。据此提出应加强多样化消费场景的创造,支持小微企业和创新创业,完善社会保障体系,实现产业发展和城镇化建设同步发展等政策建议。

供需关系下保定太行山区生态系统服务时空演化研究

为明确区域生态系统服务供给和需求的匹配关系,实现区域生态和社会经济的可持续发展,基于InVEST模型,量化太行山区保定段8个县域2005-2020年粮食供给和碳固定服务的供给量和需求量,对供需关系的时空特征进行研究,并为保定太行山区的生态系统服务管理提出合理建议。研究结果显示:(1)2005-2020年保定太行山区的粮食供给服务供给量呈现波动上升的趋势,需求量和供需比呈现持续上升的趋势;产水服务供给量和需求量呈现逐步上升的趋势,而供需比呈先上升后下降的趋势;碳固定服务供给量呈现先下降后上升的趋势,需求量呈现持续增长的趋势,供需比呈先上升后下降的趋势。(2)2005-2020年保定太行山区的粮食供给-产水-碳固定服务和3种生态系统服务的供需比均呈现"西北高,东南低"的分布特征。(3)2005-2020年保定太行山区的3种生态系统服务均以高供给低需求的供需特征为主,粮食供给-产水-碳固定服务的供需以供给大于需求为主。研究结果有助于了解保定太行山区的生态系统服务供需均衡匹配状况,并指导生态系统的管理和规划。