GO methodology is a success-oriented method for system reliability analysis. There are components with multi-fault modes in repairable systems. It is a problem to use the existing GO method to make reliability analysi...GO methodology is a success-oriented method for system reliability analysis. There are components with multi-fault modes in repairable systems. It is a problem to use the existing GO method to make reliability analysis of such repairable systems. A new GO method for reliability analysis of such repairable systems with multifault modes was presented. Firstly, calculation equations of reliability parameters of operators which were used to describe components with multi-fault modes in reparable systems were derived based on Markov process theory. Then, this new GO method was applied in reliability analysis of a hydraulic transmission oil supply system( HTOSS) of a power-shift steering transmission at low and high speeds. Finally,Compared with fault tree analysis( FTA) and Monte Carlo simulation,the results show that this new GO method is correct and suitable for reliability analysis of repairable system with multi-fault modes.展开更多
Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China's oil demand a...Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China's oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.展开更多
In view of an entire dynamic model of tilting-pad journal bearing(TPJB) in which the pads swing and vibrate along geometric direction of preload, a TPJB of elastic and damped pivots was designed and manufactured. Vibr...In view of an entire dynamic model of tilting-pad journal bearing(TPJB) in which the pads swing and vibrate along geometric direction of preload, a TPJB of elastic and damped pivots was designed and manufactured. Vibration experiments were carried out under the conditions of different rotor bending stiffness and oil supply pressure to find out the relationship between the new bearing's vibration depression effect and other dynamic parameters of the rotor. The result shows that critical amplitudes can be efficaciously reduced while system's stability can be remarkably improved by this bearing. Besides, the bearing's effect of vibration depression weakens as the rotor bending stiffness increases, but heightens it as the oil supply pressure increases.展开更多
The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven(G7)countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United States)was analyzed in this study using monthly data from Janua...The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven(G7)countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United States)was analyzed in this study using monthly data from January 1999 to March 2020.We adopt a similar approach to Kilian(Am Econ Rev 99(3):1053–1069,2009)and construct a structural vector autoregression framework to decompose crude oil price shocks into oil supply shock,oil aggregate demand shock,and oil-specific demand shock.We then explore the distinct effects of different kinds of oil price shocks from various sources.Based on the decomposed oil price shocks,we apply the connectedness approach and QQ regression to find time-varying co-movements and tail dependence between oil price shocks and G7 stock returns.There is no general correlation between the decomposed oil prices and stock returns in these countries.The effects of oil price shocks on stock returns across different stock market conditions appear to be heterogeneous.Oil supply shock appears to be a net transmitter of spillover effects for all G7 countries within the sample period.展开更多
Traditional methods for judging the degree of insufficient fluid supply in oil wells have low efficiency and limited accuracy. To address this problem, a method for intelligently identifying the degree of insufficient...Traditional methods for judging the degree of insufficient fluid supply in oil wells have low efficiency and limited accuracy. To address this problem, a method for intelligently identifying the degree of insufficient fluid supply in oil wells based on convolutional neural networks is proposed in this paper. Firstly, 5000 indicator diagrams with insufficient liquid supply were collected from the oilfield site, and a sample set was established after preprocessing;then based on the AlexNet model, combined with the characteristics of the indicator diagram, a convolutional neural network model including 4 layers of convolutional layers, 3 layers of down-pooling layers and 2 layers of fully connected layers is established. The backpropagation, ReLu activation function and dropout regularization method are used to complete the training of the convolutional neural network;finally, the performance of the convolutional neural network under different iteration times and network structure is compared, and the super parameter optimization of the model is completed. It has laid a good foundation for realizing the self-adaptive and intelligent matching of oil well production parameters and formation fluid supply conditions. It has certain application prospects. The results show that the accuracy of training and verification of the method exceeds 98%, which can meet the actual application requirements on site.展开更多
By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their ye...By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.展开更多
Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil i...Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil imports increased rapidly, and external dependence of crude oil and oil broke through 60% separately. The State adjusted the prices of gasoline and diesel timely and frequently, based on pricing mechanism. Price hike was higher than reduction. Oil market got weak, yet more stable. China increased the pace of reforms in marketization. In the second half, oil demand will increase continuously but with lower growth rate, oil production will rise more slowly, imports of crude oil and oil will keep on rising rapidly, gasoline and kerosene as well as diesel will witness a net import, and the market of gasoline, kerosene and diesel will be more stable.展开更多
Rape is the third largest oil crop in the world and the first one in China.The national average rapeseed yield is only 2077.5 kg/hm^(2),and the rapeseed oil yield is 894 kg/hm^(2).This paper introduced the main types,...Rape is the third largest oil crop in the world and the first one in China.The national average rapeseed yield is only 2077.5 kg/hm^(2),and the rapeseed oil yield is 894 kg/hm^(2).This paper introduced the main types,germplasm resources,breeding bases and breeding progress of Chinese rape,and studied its high-quality varieties,breeding patents and new varieties of agricultural plants.We analyzed the main problems such as serious loss of germplasm resources in Brassica campestris L.and Brassica juncea(L.)Czern.et Coss and weak"agricultural chip"in rape field,and put forward strategies such as strengthening the protection of rape germplasm resources,encouraging the development of"agricultural chip"in rape industry clusters with national advantages and characteristics,and strengthening the protection of agricultural intellectual property rights.展开更多
The supply chain of many industries,including Oil and Gas,was significantly affected by the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic.This,in turn,had a knock-on effect on other industries around the globe.Sustaining th...The supply chain of many industries,including Oil and Gas,was significantly affected by the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic.This,in turn,had a knock-on effect on other industries around the globe.Sustaining the impact of the disruption posed a major challenge for the industry.This study contributes to the existing literature by identifying and analyzing the most significant drivers that affected the sustainability of the Oil and Gas supply chain during the Covid pandemic.Fifteen drivers were identified based on an extensive literature review and a survey conducted with experts working in the Oil and Gas industry.Multi-criteria decision-making methodologies were used to analyze these drivers.The analysis from the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process found that the most important drivers for the sustainability of the Oil and gas supply chain during the pandemic were"Risk management capacity","Government regulation"and"Health and safety of employees".On the other hand,the driver"Community Pressure"was found to be of the least importance.Furthermore,the study integrated the results of the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process with the fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution to calculate the supply chain sustainability index.A case example was demonstrated to rank the industries based on such calculations.This study can support the governmental institutions in benchmarking the Oil and Gas industry based on its sustainability index.Additionally,the outcomes of the study will help industrial decision makers prioritize the drivers the company should focus and devise strategies based on the priority to improve the sustainability of their supply chain during severe disruption.This will be crucial as the World health organization has cautioned that the world may encounter another pandemic in the near future.展开更多
The world's present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world's second larg...The world's present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world's second largest production and consumption center of liquid fuel, and is also the world's largest natural gas producer. In 2016, the Americas had 85.3 billion tons of proven oil reserves and 18.7 trillion m3 of proven natural gas reserves, which account for 35.4% and 10.0% of world's total reserves, respectively. It produced 1267.1 Mt of oil and 1125.4 billion m3 of natural gas, which account for 28.9% and 31.7% of the world's total production, respectively. The crude oil and natural gas reserves are mainly distributed in the U.S., Canada and Venezuela. The U.S. is the earliest and most successful country in shale gas exploration and development, and its shale gas is concentrated in the southern, central and eastern U.S., including the Marcellcus shale, Barnett shale, EagleFord shale, Bakken shale, Fayettevis shale, Haynsvill shale, Woodford shale and Monterey/Santos shale. The potential oil and gas resources in the Americas are mainly concentrated in the anticline and stratigraphic traps in the Middle- Upper Jurassic slope deposition of the North Slope Basin, the Paleozoic Madsion group dolomite and limestone in the Williston Basin, dominant stratigraphic traps and few structural traps in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, the Eocene structural-stratigraphic hydrocarbon combination, structural- unconformity traps and structural hydrocarbon combination, and the Upper Miocene stratigraphic- structural hydrocarbon combination in the Maracaibo Basin of Venezuela, the stratigraphic-structural traps and fault horst, tilting faulted blocks and anticlines related to subsalt structure and basement activity in the Campos Basin, the subsalt central low-uplift belt and supra-salt central low-uplift belt in the Santos Basin of Brazil, and the structural-stratigraphic traps in the Neuquen Basin of Argentina. In addition, the breakthrough of seismic subsalt imaging technology makes the subsalt deepwater sea area of eastern Barzil an important oil and gas potential area.展开更多
With the rapid development of China's economy,external dependence on petroleum resources continues to increase,and their security has become an important part of national security.To evaluate the security of China...With the rapid development of China's economy,external dependence on petroleum resources continues to increase,and their security has become an important part of national security.To evaluate the security of China's petroleum resource supply in a scientific and objective manner,this study establishes a corresponding petroleum life-cycle evaluation index system,based on the theory and method of the whole life-cycle security evaluation of mineral resources,and conducts further independence and grey correlation analysis on the indexes for the purpose of evaluating the petroleum risk situation in China,based on relevant public data from the past 10 years.The results show that the overall trend of China's oil risk has a“U”-shaped characteristic of first decreasing and then increasing.Furthermore,the analysis finds that China's mineral resources have been greatly influenced by the domestic production situation and international trade.These results suggest that the security of petroleum supply can be improved by safeguarding international trade in petroleum resources,strengthening the strategic reserves of domestic petroleum resources,and developing new alternative clean energy sources to improve the resilience of petroleum supply security.This study's research methodology is more logical and systematic than traditional methods,and the analysis of the factors is comprehensive and of high application value,providing implications for the establishment of a big data analysis and evaluation index system for oil resource security.展开更多
基金Technical Basis Projects of China's MIIT(No.2012090003)
文摘GO methodology is a success-oriented method for system reliability analysis. There are components with multi-fault modes in repairable systems. It is a problem to use the existing GO method to make reliability analysis of such repairable systems. A new GO method for reliability analysis of such repairable systems with multifault modes was presented. Firstly, calculation equations of reliability parameters of operators which were used to describe components with multi-fault modes in reparable systems were derived based on Markov process theory. Then, this new GO method was applied in reliability analysis of a hydraulic transmission oil supply system( HTOSS) of a power-shift steering transmission at low and high speeds. Finally,Compared with fault tree analysis( FTA) and Monte Carlo simulation,the results show that this new GO method is correct and suitable for reliability analysis of repairable system with multi-fault modes.
文摘Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China's oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.
基金Project(2012CB026000)supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)
文摘In view of an entire dynamic model of tilting-pad journal bearing(TPJB) in which the pads swing and vibrate along geometric direction of preload, a TPJB of elastic and damped pivots was designed and manufactured. Vibration experiments were carried out under the conditions of different rotor bending stiffness and oil supply pressure to find out the relationship between the new bearing's vibration depression effect and other dynamic parameters of the rotor. The result shows that critical amplitudes can be efficaciously reduced while system's stability can be remarkably improved by this bearing. Besides, the bearing's effect of vibration depression weakens as the rotor bending stiffness increases, but heightens it as the oil supply pressure increases.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of PRC(71971098).
文摘The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven(G7)countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United States)was analyzed in this study using monthly data from January 1999 to March 2020.We adopt a similar approach to Kilian(Am Econ Rev 99(3):1053–1069,2009)and construct a structural vector autoregression framework to decompose crude oil price shocks into oil supply shock,oil aggregate demand shock,and oil-specific demand shock.We then explore the distinct effects of different kinds of oil price shocks from various sources.Based on the decomposed oil price shocks,we apply the connectedness approach and QQ regression to find time-varying co-movements and tail dependence between oil price shocks and G7 stock returns.There is no general correlation between the decomposed oil prices and stock returns in these countries.The effects of oil price shocks on stock returns across different stock market conditions appear to be heterogeneous.Oil supply shock appears to be a net transmitter of spillover effects for all G7 countries within the sample period.
文摘Traditional methods for judging the degree of insufficient fluid supply in oil wells have low efficiency and limited accuracy. To address this problem, a method for intelligently identifying the degree of insufficient fluid supply in oil wells based on convolutional neural networks is proposed in this paper. Firstly, 5000 indicator diagrams with insufficient liquid supply were collected from the oilfield site, and a sample set was established after preprocessing;then based on the AlexNet model, combined with the characteristics of the indicator diagram, a convolutional neural network model including 4 layers of convolutional layers, 3 layers of down-pooling layers and 2 layers of fully connected layers is established. The backpropagation, ReLu activation function and dropout regularization method are used to complete the training of the convolutional neural network;finally, the performance of the convolutional neural network under different iteration times and network structure is compared, and the super parameter optimization of the model is completed. It has laid a good foundation for realizing the self-adaptive and intelligent matching of oil well production parameters and formation fluid supply conditions. It has certain application prospects. The results show that the accuracy of training and verification of the method exceeds 98%, which can meet the actual application requirements on site.
基金Scientific Research and Technology Development Project(2021DJ3205)。
文摘By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.
文摘Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil imports increased rapidly, and external dependence of crude oil and oil broke through 60% separately. The State adjusted the prices of gasoline and diesel timely and frequently, based on pricing mechanism. Price hike was higher than reduction. Oil market got weak, yet more stable. China increased the pace of reforms in marketization. In the second half, oil demand will increase continuously but with lower growth rate, oil production will rise more slowly, imports of crude oil and oil will keep on rising rapidly, gasoline and kerosene as well as diesel will witness a net import, and the market of gasoline, kerosene and diesel will be more stable.
基金Supported by Youth Program of National Social Science Foundation of China(22CMZ015)。
文摘Rape is the third largest oil crop in the world and the first one in China.The national average rapeseed yield is only 2077.5 kg/hm^(2),and the rapeseed oil yield is 894 kg/hm^(2).This paper introduced the main types,germplasm resources,breeding bases and breeding progress of Chinese rape,and studied its high-quality varieties,breeding patents and new varieties of agricultural plants.We analyzed the main problems such as serious loss of germplasm resources in Brassica campestris L.and Brassica juncea(L.)Czern.et Coss and weak"agricultural chip"in rape field,and put forward strategies such as strengthening the protection of rape germplasm resources,encouraging the development of"agricultural chip"in rape industry clusters with national advantages and characteristics,and strengthening the protection of agricultural intellectual property rights.
文摘The supply chain of many industries,including Oil and Gas,was significantly affected by the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic.This,in turn,had a knock-on effect on other industries around the globe.Sustaining the impact of the disruption posed a major challenge for the industry.This study contributes to the existing literature by identifying and analyzing the most significant drivers that affected the sustainability of the Oil and Gas supply chain during the Covid pandemic.Fifteen drivers were identified based on an extensive literature review and a survey conducted with experts working in the Oil and Gas industry.Multi-criteria decision-making methodologies were used to analyze these drivers.The analysis from the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process found that the most important drivers for the sustainability of the Oil and gas supply chain during the pandemic were"Risk management capacity","Government regulation"and"Health and safety of employees".On the other hand,the driver"Community Pressure"was found to be of the least importance.Furthermore,the study integrated the results of the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process with the fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution to calculate the supply chain sustainability index.A case example was demonstrated to rank the industries based on such calculations.This study can support the governmental institutions in benchmarking the Oil and Gas industry based on its sustainability index.Additionally,the outcomes of the study will help industrial decision makers prioritize the drivers the company should focus and devise strategies based on the priority to improve the sustainability of their supply chain during severe disruption.This will be crucial as the World health organization has cautioned that the world may encounter another pandemic in the near future.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant No.41402219)
文摘The world's present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world's second largest production and consumption center of liquid fuel, and is also the world's largest natural gas producer. In 2016, the Americas had 85.3 billion tons of proven oil reserves and 18.7 trillion m3 of proven natural gas reserves, which account for 35.4% and 10.0% of world's total reserves, respectively. It produced 1267.1 Mt of oil and 1125.4 billion m3 of natural gas, which account for 28.9% and 31.7% of the world's total production, respectively. The crude oil and natural gas reserves are mainly distributed in the U.S., Canada and Venezuela. The U.S. is the earliest and most successful country in shale gas exploration and development, and its shale gas is concentrated in the southern, central and eastern U.S., including the Marcellcus shale, Barnett shale, EagleFord shale, Bakken shale, Fayettevis shale, Haynsvill shale, Woodford shale and Monterey/Santos shale. The potential oil and gas resources in the Americas are mainly concentrated in the anticline and stratigraphic traps in the Middle- Upper Jurassic slope deposition of the North Slope Basin, the Paleozoic Madsion group dolomite and limestone in the Williston Basin, dominant stratigraphic traps and few structural traps in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, the Eocene structural-stratigraphic hydrocarbon combination, structural- unconformity traps and structural hydrocarbon combination, and the Upper Miocene stratigraphic- structural hydrocarbon combination in the Maracaibo Basin of Venezuela, the stratigraphic-structural traps and fault horst, tilting faulted blocks and anticlines related to subsalt structure and basement activity in the Campos Basin, the subsalt central low-uplift belt and supra-salt central low-uplift belt in the Santos Basin of Brazil, and the structural-stratigraphic traps in the Neuquen Basin of Argentina. In addition, the breakthrough of seismic subsalt imaging technology makes the subsalt deepwater sea area of eastern Barzil an important oil and gas potential area.
基金This work was financially supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities(Grant No.2021NTSS10)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72004141).
文摘With the rapid development of China's economy,external dependence on petroleum resources continues to increase,and their security has become an important part of national security.To evaluate the security of China's petroleum resource supply in a scientific and objective manner,this study establishes a corresponding petroleum life-cycle evaluation index system,based on the theory and method of the whole life-cycle security evaluation of mineral resources,and conducts further independence and grey correlation analysis on the indexes for the purpose of evaluating the petroleum risk situation in China,based on relevant public data from the past 10 years.The results show that the overall trend of China's oil risk has a“U”-shaped characteristic of first decreasing and then increasing.Furthermore,the analysis finds that China's mineral resources have been greatly influenced by the domestic production situation and international trade.These results suggest that the security of petroleum supply can be improved by safeguarding international trade in petroleum resources,strengthening the strategic reserves of domestic petroleum resources,and developing new alternative clean energy sources to improve the resilience of petroleum supply security.This study's research methodology is more logical and systematic than traditional methods,and the analysis of the factors is comprehensive and of high application value,providing implications for the establishment of a big data analysis and evaluation index system for oil resource security.