Small-time scale network traffic prediction based on a local support vector machine regression model

In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the reconstructed phase space, the local support vector machine prediction method is used to predict the traffic measurement data, and the BIC-based neighbouring point selection method is used to choose the number of the nearest neighbouring points for the local support vector machine regression model. The experimental results show that the local support vector machine prediction method whose neighbouring points are optimized can effectively predict the small-time scale traffic measurement data and can reproduce the statistical features of real traffic measurements.

Anomaly detection of hot components in gas turbine based on frequent pattern extraction

Hot components operate in a high-temperature and high-pressure environment. The occurrence of a fault in hot components leads to high economic losses. In general, exhaust gas temperature(EGT) is used to monitor the performance of hot components.However, during the early stages of a failure, the fault information is weak, and is simultaneously affected by various types of interference, such as the complex working conditions, ambient conditions, gradual performance degradation of the compressors and turbines, and noise. Additionally, inadequate effective information of the gas turbine also restricts the establishment of the detection model. To solve the above problems, this paper proposes an anomaly detection method based on frequent pattern extraction. A frequent pattern model(FPM) is applied to indicate the inherent regularity of change in EGT occurring from different types of interference. In this study, based on a genetic algorithm and support vector machine regression, the relationship model between the EGT and interference was tentatively built. The modeling accuracy was then further improved through the selection of the kernel function and training data. Experiments indicate that the optimal kernel function is linear and that the optimal training data should be balanced in addition to covering the appropriate range of operating conditions and ambient temperature. Furthermore, the thresholds based on the Pauta criterion that is automatically obtained during the modeling process, are used to determine whether hot components are operating abnormally. Moreover, the FPM is compared with the similarity theory, which demonstrates that the FPM can better suppress the effect of the component performance degradation and fuel heat value fluctuation. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated on seven months of actual data obtained from a Titan130 gas turbine on an offshore oil platform. The results indicate that the proposed method can sensitively detect malfunctions in hot components during the early stages of a fault, and is robust to various types of interference.