Survivability evaluation for networks carrying complex traffic flows

The capability of a system to fulfill its mission promptly in the presence of attacks,failures,or accidents is one of the qualitative definitions of survivability.In this paper,we propose a model for survivability quantification,which is acceptable for networks carrying complex traffic flows.Complex network traffic is considered as general multi-rate,heterogeneous traffic,where the individual bandwidth demands may aggregate in complex,nonlinear ways.Blocking probability is the chosen measure for survivability analysis.We study an arbitrary topology and some other known topologies for the network.Independent and dependent failure scenarios as well as deterministic and random traffic models are investigated.Finally,we provide survivability evaluation results for different network configurations.The results show that by using about 50%of the link capacity in networks with a relatively high number of links,the blocking probability remains near zero in the case of a limited number of failures.

Calculation model of military aircraft survivability to a missile

Since missiles are main threat against aircrafts in air war,a model is proposed for calculating the aircraft survivability to a missile.The hit characteristic of aircraft to a missile is analyzed,and then Monte Carlo method is applied to generate missile detonation location according to its distribution rule.In addition,based on the analysis of fragment trajectory and critical components,the intersection point of these two is determined.Then the kill probability of critical component to a fragment can be calculated,and the aircraft survivability to a missile is obtained accordingly.Finally,the feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated.Simulation results show that this method captures the basic effects of missile detonation locations on aircraft survivability,which may provide an effective reference to aircraft survivability research.

A CALCULATING METHOD OF THE KILL PROBABILITY ATTACK AREA FOR AAM

This paper provides a calculating method which can be used in calculation of the kill probability attack area for every AAM. At first, attack area of AAM and kill probability of every characteristic point are obtained by combining trajectory calculation with kill probability calculation. Then, coordinates of a fire point relative to standard kill probability value in terms of standardization method are found. At last, equivalent kill probability curve equations are formulated by means of curve fitting method.

Vulnerability assessment of UAV engine to laser based on improved shotline method

Laser anti-drone technology is entering the sequence of actual combat,and it is necessary to consider the vulnerability of typical functional parts of UAVs.Since the concept of"vulnerability"was proposed,a variety of analysis programs for battlefield targets to traditional weapons have been developed,but a comprehensive assessment methodology for targets'vulnerability to laser is still missing.Based on the shotline method,this paper proposes a method that equates laser beam to shotline array,an efficient vulnerability analysis program of target to laser is established by this method,and the program includes the circuit board and the wire into the vulnerability analysis category,which improves the precision of the vulnerability analysis.Taking the UAV engine part as the target of vulnerability analysis,combine with the"life-death unit method"to calculate the laser penetration rate of various materials of the UAV,and the influence of laser weapon system parameters and striking orientation on the killing probability is quantified after introducing the penetration rate into the vulnerability analysis program.The quantitative analysis method proposed in this paper has certain general expansibility,which can provide a fresh idea for the vulnerability analysis of other targets to laser.

METHOD FOR CALCULATING KILL PROBABILITY OF MISSILE WITH CONTINUOUS ROD WARHEAD IN FORWARD HEMI-SPHERE ATTACKING

ＭＥＴＨＯＤＦＯＲＣＡＬＣＵＬＡＴＩＮＧＫＩＬＬＰＲＯＢＡＢＩＬＩＴＹＯＦＭＩＳＳＩＬＥＷＩＴＨＣＯＮＴＩＮＵＯＵＳＲＯＤＷＡＲＨＥＡＤＩＮＦＯＲＷＡＲＤＨＥＭＩ┐ＳＰＨＥＲＥＡＴＴＡＣＫＩＮＧＮｉｅＲｏｎｇｍｅｉ（聂蓉梅），ＬｉＴｉｎｇｊｉｅ（李廷...

Kill probability modeling of multi-purpose guided missile against gunship and its application

针对多用途导弹对武装直升机单发杀伤概率建模中存在的问题,本文提出了直升机旋翼桨叶易损单元重要性因子的概念,并综合运用蒙特卡罗方法和运动学原理采用新思路建立旋翼激光引信启动模型和战斗部对旋翼桨叶条件杀伤概率模型。根据有限的数据对武装直升机装甲厚度进行优化估算并通过实验进行验证,最终建立了多用途导弹对武装直升机完整的单发杀伤概率数学模型,为准确客观地分析多用途导弹对武装直升机目标的杀伤概率提供了必要的数学工具。基于所建立的单发杀伤概率模型,对影响多用途导弹杀伤概率的主要因素进行灵敏度分析及优化设计,分析及优化结果明显改善了单枚多用途导弹对武装直升机的杀伤性能。

Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model

In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc cxponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.

An Estimation Method for Kill Probability Based on Random Residence Time Series

Relations between statistical residence time series and effective shooting are analyzed in accordance with the properties of the random residence time of maneuver targets crossing shot area in a given time. An estimation method for kill probability is proposed, which solves the probability of number of residence times satisfied effective shooting in given time. Some expressions and their approximate formulae of kill probability are derived, under known the distribution of residence time series. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that this method is suitable for evaluating the hit ability of fire system for maneuver targets in random shooting.

RANDOMIZATION METHOD OF DETERMINISTIC EQUATION FOR PROBABILITY FRACTURE MECHANICS

In order to obtain any probability of survival for crack growth life, a randomization method of deterministic equation for probability fracture mechanics is presented. According to this method, the deterministic equation of fracture mechanics is randomized to stochastic equation, and the parameters of the stochastic equation are estimated by means of the statistics. Three new kinds of random models to gain the p d a/ d N Δ K curve and the γ p d a/ d N Δ K curve (confidence level probability of survival fatigue crack growth rate stress intensity factor range curve) are proposed by using this randomization method. And the p d a/ d N Δ K curves and the γ p d a/ d N Δ K curves determined by these three models are discussed and compared according to the treatment result of the experimental data from CT specimens. From examples, it is found that the three deterministic fatigue crack growth rate equations determined by these models are very near and in agreement with the traditional deterministic fatigue crack growth rate equation, and these models are effectively and easily used to treat fatigue crack growth rate data.

LAPLACE TRANSFORM OF THE SURVIVAL PROBABILITY UNDER SPARRE ANDERSEN MODEL

In this paper a class of risk processes in which claims occur as a renewal process is studied. A clear expression for Laplace transform of the survival probability is well given when the claim amount distribution is Erlang distribution or mixed Erlang distribution. The expressions for moments of the time to ruin with the model above are given.

Modelling and Assessment of Survival Probability of Shock Model with Two Kinds of Shocks

The study aims at modelling and assessment of survival probability of a component experiencing two kinds of shocks namely, damage shock and fatal shock. Shocks are occurring randomly in time as events of a Poisson Process. The two cases of fixed/random threshold of components are studied. Survival probabilities of proposed models are derived. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of survival probabilities are obtained using the data from life testing experiments. Fisher information and asymptotic distribution of MLEs of parameters are obtained when a constant threshold is considered. Computation and comparison of estimators of two cases (constant threshold and random threshold) are made through simulation studies. The study recommends the consideration of threshold as a random variable.

Computer program of nonlinear, curved regression for ‘probacent’-probability equation in biomedicine

On the basis of experimental observations on animals, applications to clinical data on patients and theoretical statistical reasoning, the author developed a com-puter-assisted general mathematical model of the ‘probacent’-probability equation, Equation (1) and death rate (mortality probability) equation, Equation (2) derivable from Equation (1) that may be applica-ble as a general approximation method to make use-ful predictions of probable outcomes in a variety of biomedical phenomena [1-4]. Equations (1) and (2) contain a constant, γ and c, respectively. In the pre-vious studies, the author used the least maximum- difference principle to determine these constants that were expected to best fit reported data, minimizing the deviation. In this study, the author uses the method of computer-assisted least sum of squares to determine the constants, γ and c in constructing the ‘probacent’-related formulas best fitting the NCHS- reported data on survival probabilities and death rates in the US total adult population for 2001. The results of this study reveal that the method of com-puter-assisted mathematical analysis with the least sum of squares seems to be simple, more accurate, convenient and preferable than the previously used least maximum-difference principle, and better fit-ting the NCHS-reported data on survival probabili-ties and death rates in the US total adult population. The computer program of curved regression for the ‘probacent’-probability and death rate equations may be helpful in research in biomedicine.

The Prediction Value of the Infection Probability Score (IPS) Combined with Serum Cholinesterase and D-Dimer Detection for Infection and Survival in Critically Ill Patients

Objective: To evaluate early prediction value of IPS combined with SchE and D-dimer detection for infection and survival in critically ill patients. Methods: 199 critically ill patients admitted to the emergency intensive care unit (EICU) of our hospital from December 2018 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed, including 110 infection patients (infection group) and 89 non-infection patients (non-infection group). According to the survival, the infection group was divided into death group (68 cases) and survival group (42 cases). The IPS, APACHE II, SOFA and SchE, D-dimer expression levels were detected and compared;Univariate and logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate the independent prognostic factors. Results: The IPS and APACHE II of patients in the infected group were higher than those in the non-infected group, the level of SchE was lower than that in the non-infected group, and the level of D-dimer was higher than that in the non-infected group (P < 0.001). IPS, SOFA, APACHE II, SchE, D-dimer, invasive mechanical ventilation, septic shock, and ICU length of stay had significant influence on the prognosis of critically ill patients (P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed that IPS (OR = 2.821, 95% CI 1.501 - 5.227), SOFA (OR = 5.078, 95% CI 3.327 - 7.690), APACHE II (OR = 14.308, 95% CI 8.901 - 21.893), SchE (OR = 0.223, 95% CI 0.165 - 0.291), D-dimer (OR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.55 - 2.85), septic shock (OR = 9.948, 95% CI 7.012 - 17.012) were independent factors affecting the prognosis of critically ill patients with infection (P < 0.001). Conclusion: IPS and D-dimer expression level in infected patients were increased and SchE decreased significantly compared with those in non-infected patients, and they significantly correlated with disease severity of infected patients and could be early prediction for prognosis.

Survival Probability of the Quantum Walk with Phase Parameters on the Two-Dimensional Trapped Lattice

We investigate the time dependence of the survival probability of quantum walks governed by Fibonacci walks with phase parameters on the trapped two-dimensional lattice. We have shown that the survival probability of the quantum walk decays with time obey to the stretched exponential law for all initial states of walkers. We have also shown that stretched exponential decay parameter β can be arranged by phase parameter combination. Obtained numerical results show that phase parameters can be used as a control parameter to determine the decay rate of the survival probability of the quantum walk.

基于倾向性评分逆概率加权法的视网膜母细胞瘤疗效评价及其预后影响因素分析

目的评估手术、化疗及手术联合化疗3种治疗方式对视网膜母细胞瘤(RB)的疗效,分析RB患者的预后影响因素。方法选取2000年1月1日-2019年12月31日美国监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库登记的RB患者1188例临床资料进行回顾性分析。采用倾向性评分逆概率加权法(IPTW)对接受手术、化疗或手术联合化疗治疗的3组患者基线特征进行平衡。采用Log-rank检验比较3组患者的生存概率,采用Cox回归模型分析RB患者预后影响因素。结果共纳入RB1188例,其中手术组426例,化疗组200例,手术联合化疗组562例。经IPTW加权后,患者的年龄、性别、种族等基线资料均达到平衡(P>0.05)。Log-rank检验结果显示,加权前后3组生存曲线比较差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);加权后,手术组患者生存情况明显优于化疗组和手术联合化疗组(P<0.05),化疗组与手术联合化疗组比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。加权后患者1年、3年和5年的生存概率为:手术组99.7%、98.9%和98.6%;化疗组97.4%、95.8%和95.8%;手术联合化疗组97.9%、95.8%和95.0%。Cox回归分析结果显示,与手术组比较,化疗组患者特异性死亡风险比为1.367(95%CI 1.100~1.700),手术联合化疗组特异性死亡风险比为1.132(95%CI0.963~1.330);与RB病灶为1个的患者比较,RB病灶数≥2个的患者特异性死亡风险比为0.399(95%CI0.268~0.594)。结论RB患者接受治疗后生存概率较高;在控制年龄、性别等因素的影响后,3种治疗方式中手术的疗效更好;多灶性可能是RB患者预后的独立影响因素。

Cr-induced fusion reactions to synthesize superheavy elements

We investigated ^(50,52-54)Cr-induced fusion reactions for the synthesis of the superheavy element in the 104≤Z≤122 range.The cross sections produced in this investigation using ^(54)Cr projectiles were compared with those obtained in prior experiments.The estimated cross sections from this analysis are consistent with the findings of prior studies.From the current study,the predicted cross section was found to be 42fb at 236 MeV for ^(53)Cr+^(243)Am,23.2 fb at 236 MeV for ^(54)Cr+^(247)Cm,95.6 fb at 240 MeV for ^(53)Cr+248Bk,and 1.33 fb at 242 MeV for ^(53)Cr+250Cf.Consequently,these projected cross sections with excitation energy and beam energy will be useful in future Cr-induced fusion reaction investigations.

生存论视域下的隐喻之思

对隐喻的研究经历着从语言修辞学内部到生存论层面的流变,生存境域的地位在研究的过程中得以凸显,这是对被实体主义长期遮蔽的人与世界关系的去蔽,同时也是在对生存世界可能性的探寻。首先,通过对隐喻进行历史的考辨,发掘蕴于其中的身体与世界之关联。其次,将隐喻置于生存论视域下,关注在生存过程中隐喻蕴涵的对身体与世界的回归。再次,关注隐喻的超越性、开放性,从而揭蔽了身体与世界相遇的可能性。

基于RTCA技术研究抗体偶联药物的旁观者效应的检测方法

目的 利用实时无标记细胞分析(RTCA)系统评估抗体偶联药物(ADC)的旁观者效应。方法 采用RTCA系统监测抗原阳性细胞(Ag^(+))和抗原阴性细胞(Ag^(-))的共培养状态,观察Ag^(-)的细胞存活情况;采用重复实验验证结果的可靠性和一致性,并采用单因素方差分析比较不同细胞比例培养组在单个时间点的Ag^(-)存活率。结果 加入抗体偶联药物后,随着共培养时间的延长,Ag^(-)存活率下降;此外,在单个时间点(96 h)上,与0%Ag^(+)细胞的Ag^(-)细胞存活率相比,10%Ag^(+)细胞的Ag^(-)细胞存活率为89.07%(P=0.156),25%Ag^(+)细胞的Ag^(-)存活率为68.93%(P=0.0026),50%Ag^(+)、75%Ag^(+)和90%Ag^(+)细胞的Ag^(-)存活率分别为35.28%、13.99%和12.02%(P<0.0001)。在 Ag^(+)细胞比例为25%~90%时,旁杀伤效果显著;重复性结果显示不同Ag^(+)细胞的旁杀伤率的相对标准偏差(RSD)均小于30%。结论 结合RTCA技术和共培养方式的方法,可以更准确地模拟旁观者效应的生物学过程,为后续的抗体偶联药物开发提供有价值的参考。

基于数学仿真的反辐射对抗试验方法

多数反辐射对抗试验通过地面高塔测试和动态挂飞验证获得反辐射对抗结果,但受试验成本、试验周期及组织实施等因素限制,试验样本量有限且试验态势相对单一,不能综合检验反辐射武器或雷达诱偏系统的作战效能。针对上述问题,提出一种数学仿真试验方法,通过建立反辐射武器、雷达及雷达诱偏系统等数学模型,利用外场试验数据对数学仿真模型进行校验,使模型能够逼近真实装备的状态和性能,以此数学仿真平台为基础开展反辐射对抗仿真试验,获取多种态势下的反辐射对抗结果。该方法是对外场试验的有效补充,对于反辐射武器和雷达诱偏系统的作战应用也有较好的借鉴意义。