Factors Predicting Progression to Severe COVID-19: A Competing Risk Survival Analysis of 1753 Patients in Community Isolation in Wuhan, China

Most studies of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)progression have focused on the transfer of patients within secondary or tertiary care hospitals from regular wards to intensive care units.Little is known about the risk factors predicting the progression to severe COVID-19 among patients in community iso-lation,who are either asymptomatic or suffer from only mild to moderate symptoms.Using a multivari-able competing risk survival analysis,we identify several important predictors of progression to severe COVID-19—rather than to recovery—among patients in the largest community isolation center in Wuhan,China from 6 February 2020(when the center opened)to 9 March 2020(when it closed).All patients in community isolation in Wuhan were either asymptomatic or suffered from mild to moderate COVID-19 symptoms.We performed competing risk survival analysis on time-to-event data from a cohort study of all COVID-19 patients(n=1753)in the isolation center.The potential predictors we inves-tigated were the routine patient data collected upon admission to the isolation center:age,sex,respira-tory symptoms,gastrointestinal symptoms,general symptoms,and computed tomography(CT)scan signs.The main outcomes were time to severe COVID-19 or recovery.The factors predicting progression to severe COVID-19 were:male sex(hazard ratio(HR)=1.29,95%confidence interval(CI)1.04–1.58,p=0.018),young and old age,dyspnea(HR=1.58,95%CI 1.24–2.01,p<0.001),and CT signs of ground-glass opacity(HR=1.39,95%CI 1.04–1.86,p=0.024)and infiltrating shadows(HR=1.84,95%CI 1.22–2.78,p=0.004).The risk of progression was found to be lower among patients with nausea or vomiting(HR=0.53,95%CI 0.30–0.96,p=0.036)and headaches(HR=0.54,95%CI 0.29–0.99,p=0.046).Our results suggest that several factors that can be easily measured even in resource-poor set-tings(dyspnea,sex,and age)can be used to identify mild COVID-19 patients who are at increased risk of disease progression.Looking for CT signs of ground-glass opacity and infiltrating shadows may be an affordable option to support triage decisions in resource-rich settings.Common and unspecific symptoms(headaches,nausea,and vomiting)are likely to have led to the identification and subsequent community isolation of COVID-19 patients who were relatively unlikely to deteriorate.Future public health and clinical guidelines should build on this evidence to improve the screening,triage,and monitoring of COVID-19 patients who are asymtomatic or suffer from mild to moderate symptoms.

Long-term albumin infusion improves survival in patients with cirrhosis and ascites: An unblinded randomized trial

AIM： To investigate the effects of long-term albumin administration on survival, recurrence of ascites and onset of other complications. METHODS： One hundred consecutive patients admitted for first-onset ascites were randomized to receive diuretics plus human albumin 25 g/wk in the first year and 25 g every two wk thereafter （group 1） or diuretics alone （group 2）. The primary endpoint was survival without liver transplantation. Secondary endpoints were recurrence of ascites and occurrence of other complications. RESULTS： Median follow-up was 84 （2-120） mo. Albu- min-treated patients had significantly greater cumulative survival rate （Breslow test= 7.05, P= 0.0078） and lower probability of ascites recurrence （51% versus 94%, P〈0.0001）. Chronic albumin infusion resulted in a mean increase in survival of 16 mo. CONCLUSION： Long-term albumin administration after first-onset ascites significantly improves patients＇ survival and decreases the risk of ascites recurrence.

Innovative behavior and the Chinese enterprise survival risk:An empirical study

The Chinese firms face enormous survival risk duing economic transition,with an average life expectancy of less than 4 years.From the perspective of enterprises’innovative activities,this paper conducts dynamic tracks on the survival situation of those enterprises entering the market after 2000.By employing propensity score matching and Cox model to overcome the difficulties such as sample bias and censoring of data with long duration,the inhibitory effect of innovative activities on enterprises’survival risk has been captured and investigated in both static and dynamic dimensions.The findings are as follows.First,compared with the non-innovative enterprises,the innovative enterprises own higher competence of risk resistance,as innovative activities can release about 12% survival risk for enterprises and extend their survival time by 0.84 year.Second,the influence of innovative intensity on the enterprises’survival probability presents the characteristics of being non-stationary rather than proportional,which means the stronger innovative intensity will not necessarily bring more obvious inhibition effect.Third,the characteristics of being different within enterprises will change the effect of innovation activity on inhibiting survival risk.The survival incremental effect of large-scale enterprises with high productivity through innovative activities is more apparent,as innovative activities help to relieve the agglomeration of survival risk from those long-established enterprises.But those enterprises with financing limit are not suitable for innovative activities.Then,it must be one of the main priorities for China’s government in formulating current and future policies about industrial organization to encourage enterprise independent innovation through a series of measures.