Deepwater and Deep Layers： the Strategic Choices for China＇s Oil and Gas Resources Development

On December 2, 2017, the 2nd Seminar on the Development Strategy of China＇s Oil and Gas Resources was held in Beijing. This seminar was hosted by the Strategic Research Center for Oil and Gas Resources, Ministry of Land （MLR） and Resources and sponsored by both the CNOOC Exploration Department and the School of Ocean and Earth Sciences of Tongji University. With the theme of ＂deepwater and deep-layer oil and gas resources and development strategy＂,

Evaluation and re-understanding of the global natural gas hydrate resources

Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973.At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far,among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources.If drawn in chronological order,the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend,reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time.A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend.The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46×1012 m3 at the year of 2050.The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10%of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir,consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources(TRR)in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches.Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources,only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply.It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.

Research progress and challenges of natural gas hydrate resource evaluation in the South China Sea

As an efficient clean energy,natural gas hydrate(NGH)has become a hot topic in recent researches.Since1990 s,China has made great achievements and progress in NGH exploration in the South China Sea(SCS),including determination of the favorable distribution areas and favorable strata thickness,identification of the dual source for accumulation,evaluation of the prospective gas contents,verification of the widespread existence,and confirmation of the technical recoverability of NGH resources.However,there are three major challenges in the NGH studies.First,all the 24 national key and major projects in the SCS focused on trial production engineering and geological engineering in the past 20 years,while 8 of the 10 international NGH research projects focused on resource potential.Second,resource evaluation methods are outdated and some parameter selection are subjective.Third,the existing resource evaluation results are low-level with a great uncertainty,and cannot be used to guide NGH exploration and production or strategic research.To improve the evaluation of NGH resources in the SCS,future researches should focus on four aspects:(1)improve the research on the criterion of the objective existence of NGH and the method of prediction and evaluation;(2)apply new theories and methods from the global NGH research;(3)boost the research on the difference and correlation of the conditions of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in different basins;(4)innovate the theory and method of NGH resource potential evaluation.

Securing offshore resources development:A mathematical investigation into gas leakage in long-distance flexible pipes

Gas flexible pipes are critical multi-layered equipment for offshore oil and gas development.Under high pressure conditions,small molecular components of natural gas dissolve into the polymer inner liner of the flexible pipes and further diffuse into the annular space,incurring annular pressure build-up and/or production of acidic environment,which poses serious challenges to the structure and integrity of the flexible pipes.Gas permeation in pipes is a complex phenomenon governed by various factors such as internal pressure and temperature,annular structure,external temperature.In a long-distance gas flexible pipe,moreover,gas permeation exhibits non-uniform features,and the gas permeated into the annular space flows along the metal gap.To assess the complex gas transport behavior in long-distance gas flexible pipes,a mathematical model is established in this paper considering the multiphase flow phenomena inside the flexible pipes,the diffusion of gas in the inner liner,and the gas seepage in the annular space under varying permeable properties of the annulus.In addition,the effect of a variable temperature is accounted.A numerical calculation method is accordingly constructed to solve the coupling mathematical equations.The annular permeability was shown to significantly influence the distribution of annular pressure.As permeability increases,the annular pressure tends to become more uniform,and the annular pressure at the wellhead rises more rapidly.After annular pressure relief followed by shut-in,the pressure increase follows a convex function.By simulating the pressure recovery pattern after pressure relief and comparing it with test results,we deduce that the annular permeability lies between 123 and 512 m D.The results help shed light upon assessing the annular pressure in long distance gas flexible pipes and thus ensure the security of gas transport in the emerging development of offshore resources.

Global oil and gas development in 2022:Situation,trends and enlightenment

Through analysis of four aspects,including the distribution and production of global oil and gas fields,the distribution and changes of remaining recoverable reserves,the differences in oil and gas production between regions/countries,and the development potential of oil and gas fields with production capacity not built and to be built,this paper presents the situation and trends of global oil and gas development in 2022.It is found that,in 2022,oil and gas fields are widely distributed worldwide,and upstream production activities continue to recover;the oil and gas reserves decrease slightly year on year,and the oil and gas reserves in sea areas increase significantly;the oil and gas production increases continuously,and the key resource countries make a significant contribution in oil and gas production growth;the oil and gas fields with production capacity not built and to be built hold abundant reserves,and their development potential will be gradually released with the economic benefits increase.Further analysis is conducted from the perspectives of global oil and gas resources continuity,geopolitical risks,potential of international cooperation,and upgrade of unconventional oil and gas technology.Finally,in view of core business domains and strategies under the new situation,the Chinese oil companies are recommended to:(1)keep a foothold in onshore conventional oil and gas development by virtue of their comparative advantages and learning from other’s experience in cooperation;(2)carry out pilot tests on development adjustment,and deepen the international cooperation in enhanced oil/gas recovery;(3)improve the oil and gas operation capabilities in sea areas to transform from follower as minority shareholder to joint venture and then to independent operations;and(4)seek appropriate ways for shale oil/gas development to reduce the dependence on foreign oil and gas.

China’s Energy Security Strategy for Sustainable Development

In recent years, soaring energy consumption is posing a huge potential threat to China＇s energy security. China has rich coal resources, but most of the coal is mainly burned directly with low efficiency. Thus oil and gas plays a comparatively important role in national economic development. However domestic oil and gas cannot meet the need of economic development. To solve this problem, China would continue to import oil and gas from petroleum producing countries, especially from the Middle East. The dependence on oil import increases year after year and the sources of supply are concentrated in a few countries, which results in the insecurity of energy supply. Therefore, China should optimize its energy structure, improve energy efficiency, increase the geographic diversity of oil supply, build oil reserve bases, and develop new energies actively.

Prospects for Distributed Energy Systems in China Released in Beijing

On the afternoon of October 30, the international Energy Agency （IEA） and chinaSe.com held a joint press conference in Beijing for the release of an IEA report： Prospects for Distributed Energy Systems in China.

基于可持续发展视角我国稀土资源贸易安全评价研究

稀土是支撑高端技术创新和新兴产业发展的关键矿产资源,已经成为大国资源竞争和国际地缘经济政治博弈的重要对象。全球稀土供应链重构进程加剧,如何评估我国稀土资源贸易安全,破解稀土贸易贫困化增长困境,促进稀土产业可持续发展,是当前亟须关注和解决的重要课题。本研究基于“压力—状态—响应”模型(Pressure-State-Response Model)构建稀土贸易安全评价指标体系,测算不同时期我国稀土资源的压力指数、状态指数、响应指数,揭示我国稀土贸易安全指数演变特征,进一步建立多元线性回归模型,识别我国稀土贸易安全的影响因素。研究发现:我国稀土资源贸易安全度在持续下降,亟需优化贸易结构,降低供应链风险;我国稀土资源贸易的驱动因素主要来源于市场需求牵引、资源禀赋优势以及产业有序供给;全球稀土产业分工格局、资源价值核算方法缺失,限制了我国稀土资源贸易可持续发展。在此基础上,提出通过健全稀土资源收储体系、建设再生稀土研发和回收网络等方式,保障战略性稀土资源供给安全;同时,整合稀土行业优势资源与优化稀土产业链及供应链,深度参与全球稀土供应链治理,为我国稀土资源开发利用与可持续发展提供决策依据。

科学测算运维经费,助力水利网信可持续发展

为支持水利网信可持续发展,推动新阶段水利高质量发展,研究水利信息系统运维经费的科学测算体系。回顾水利信息化运维经费管理的发展历程,介绍《水利信息系统运行维护定额标准》《水利信息系统运行维护规范》2个标准构成的运维经费测算体系,经过实际运维经费测算应用,发现原有的运行维护定额标准在新形势下存在不适应性,因此,对运行维护定额标准进行修订,修订后的定额标准更为全面,能反映不同运行维护服务等级的要求,并强化资源整合共享和网络安全。科学测算体系的建立和推广可有效解决经费不足的问题,保障运行维护工作的有序开展,助力水利网信可持续发展,未来运维经费测算需要考虑通货膨胀、资源成本上涨和设备服务寿命延长等相关内容。

黄土丘陵区土地资源生态安全及其动态评价

土地资源生态安全研究是当前区域可持续发展研究的前沿课题，科学评价区域土地资源生态安全状态及变化，是土地利用科学决策及土地利用模式优化的基础和依据。本文界定了土地资源生态安全的概念，针对黄土丘陵区土地资源特点及面临的主要生态问题，基于P．S．R概念模型运用层次分析法建立了黄土丘陵区土地资源生态安全评价指标体系，并对指标安全闽值的确定进行了初步探讨。鉴于土地资源生态安全的动态特性，提出了基于状态评价模型和趋势分析模型相结合的区域土地资源生态安全动态评价方法，弥补了传统静态评价方法的不足，以地处宁南黄土丘陵区的彭阳县为例，进行了实证研究，对彭阳县1986年～2004年土地资源生态安全状态及变化趋势进行了评价和分析，结果表明近20年来该区域土地资源生态安全变化趋势趋于改善，但目前安全状态仍处于较不安全等级，评价结果能较为全面客观地反映该区域土地资源生态安全状况。

区域土地资源生态安全评价的物元模型构建及应用

针对区域土地资源生态安全的特点,基于P-S-R模型和层次分析法建立了土地资源生态安全评价的指标体系,采用物元和可拓理论构建了区域土地资源生态安全评价的综合评判模型,并以宁夏南部彭阳县为例进行了实证研究.研究结果表明①研究区域1986年—2004年近20年以来土地资源生态安全状态有改善的趋势,但是整体水平并不容乐观,目前仍处于临界安全水平.②评价结果符合当地实际情况,物元模型克服了评价过程中人为因素的影响,通过对参评因子的量化处理,实现了评价精度的提高,应用物元模型进行土地资源生态安全评价可行、客观,可作为土地资源生态安全评价的一种新方法.③物元模型作为正在蓬勃发展的数学工具,无论在理论体系方面还是在实际应用中都存在着不完善的地方,例如目前可供选择的关联度函数较少,因此物元模型在土地资源生态安全评价中的应用也需要进一步深入研究和扩展.

西北地区水资源与食物安全可持续发展研究

西北地区光热土资源丰富,区域食物安全的可持续发展主要受限于其有限的水资源。本文以水足迹和虚拟水为分析工具,评估了西北地区作物生产用水效率、水资源压力和作物虚拟水输出情况。基于国际化绿色化背景,以及西北地区粮食生产及农业用水的预测结果,提出逐步减少区域农业用水总量,优化调整作物种植结构和实施丝路经济带虚拟水工程,以期为区域水资源合理利用和食物安全战略的制定提供参考。

我国现状能源与水纽带关系定量识别

以省级行政区为研究对象,以2017年为研究时段,分析我国社会水循环过程耗能及电力生产耗水。结果显示:2017年我国社会水循环过程耗电总量为10828.1亿kW·h,占当年我国全社会用电总量的17.2%,终端用水是最大的耗能环节;2017年我国电力生产过程耗水量为65.7亿m^3,占当年全社会耗水总量的2%;火电是我国最耗水的电源,其耗水量占全国电力开发耗水总量的78%。基于计算结果,提出了实现能源-水协同安全的相关建议。

土地资源生态安全研究进展与展望

土地资源的生态安全问题日益突出,土地资源生态安全研究成为当前土地资源可持续利用研究的前沿课题。文章诠释了土地资源生态安全的概念,并且对当前土地资源生态安全研究的主要研究内容及研究进展进行了综述,提出了将土地资源生态安全机理研究、土地资源生态安全评价和土地资源生态安全设计研究整合起来进行综合研究的体系框架,即在系统分析土地资源生态安全影响机理的基础上,构建土地资源生态安全评价指标体系,进行土地资源生态安全评价,识别生态危机和生态安全的土地利用模式,设计生态安全条件下的土地利用结构优化方案和土地利用安全格局,这种整合研究将成为区域土地资源可持续利用研究的趋势。其中土地资源生态安全评价指标体系的构建、生态安全标准的判定以及土地资源生态安全格局构建仍是非常具有探索性的工作,也是未来土地资源生态安全研究的主要研究方向。

根际生命共同体:协调资源、环境和粮食安全的学术思路与交叉创新

植物营养学研究近年来在植物养分高效分子机理、植物-微生物互作、根际互作与微生态调控、农田养分管理等研究领域取得了一系列原创性进展。然而,当前如何协调粮食安全、资源高效和环境可持续性仍面临巨大挑战。针对这一重大问题,本文提出“根际生命共同体(Rhizobiont)”学术思路,围绕“根际互作与养分高效”这一重大科学命题,构建“植物-根系-根际-菌丝际-土体及其微生物”根际生命共同体理论体系,突破植物-微生物、微生物-微生物关键界面互作机制,阐明根际生命共同体结构、功能及其在养分活化、吸收与利用中的作用机制,建立共同体多界面互作增效的生物学调控新途径,开辟植物-土壤-微生物交叉创新领域,根际生命共同体理论创新有助于破解粮食安全、资源高效、环境保护多目标协同的难题,支撑我国农业绿色发展。文章指出了根际生命共同体与养分高效研究的重点方向与内容,尤其是深入揭示和调控植物第二基因组——微生物组的作用正成为农业科学的研究前沿。

水安全与河南经济可持续发展

文章阐述了水安全的概念及其对可持续发展的意义,分析了河南省水资源利用现状及存在的问题,在此基础上依据可持续发展的要求,提出了重整用水系统、加强水资源统一管理、建立节水型社会等,符合河南省经济社会可持续发展要求的新型水资源利用模式。

非常规油藏开发与石油资源可持续发展

阐述了在 2 1世纪非常规石油资源的勘探和开发对于石油资源可持续发展的重要意义 ,介绍了非常规石油资源的定义、分类、研究思路和方法、以及其可持续性评价内容等。非常规油藏资源作为本世纪重要的非常规石油资源来源 ,应该运用新方法、新思路进行研究和评价 ,必须形成一个资源 -环境 -经济

三峡库区生物柴油植物资源可持续发展评价体系

为了实现对三峡库区生物柴油植物资源持续高效开发利用,根据三峡库区的地域性,依据可持续发展理论,按照跨学科、多基准、系统化、科学性、可操作性、主导性、动态性、独立性和可比性的原则,运用Delphi调查法、AHP层次分析法及Yaahp 0.4.1软件,构建了三峡库区生物柴油植物资源可持续发展评价体系。该评价体系由4个子系统的准则层和24个评价指标的指标层构成。运用该体系对三峡库区25种油料植物进行可持续发展评价,得到了这些油料植物目前依次优先发展的排序是:油桐、乌桕、油茶、麻疯树、黄连木等。该评价体系具有较强的科学性、客观性和合理性,可操作性强,可作为三峡库区生物柴油植物资源开发利用决策前的评价工具。