Research on strategic risk identification method of equipment system development based on system dynamics

Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.

Analysis and Simulations of Open-Source Intelligence Process System Dynamics from User’s Perspective

In today’s society with advanced Internet,the amount of information increases dramatically with each passing day,which leads to increasingly complex processes of open-source intelligence.Therefore,it is more important to rationalize the operation mode and improve the operation efficiency of open-source intelligence under the premise of satisfying users’needs.This paper focuses on the simulation study of the process system of opensource intelligence from the user’s perspective.First,the basic concept and development status of open-source intelligence are introduced in details.Second,six existing intelligence operation process models are summarized and their advantages and disadvantages are compared in focus.Based on users’preference,the open-source intelligence system simulation theory model is constructed from four aspects:intelligence collection,intelligence processing,intelligence analysis,and intelligence delivery.Meanwhile,the dynamics model of the open-source intelligence process system is constructed based on the open-source intelligence system simulation theoretical model,which specifically includes five parts:determination of system boundary,construction of causal loop diagram,construction of stock flow diagram,writing ofmathematical equations,and system sensitivity test.Finally,the system simulation results were analyzed.It was found that improving the system of intelligence agencies,opening up government affairs,improving the professional level of intelligence personnel,strengthening the communication and cooperation among personnel of various intelligence departments,and expressing intelligence products through diverse forms can effectively improve the operational efficiency of the open-source intelligence process system.

Towards a Modeling of the Impacts of Road Verge Management on the Pollination Service Using System Dynamics: A Case Study in France

Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environment in a more sustainable manner. In this sense, the ecosystems known as road verges are particularly important because of their length and surface at an international scale, and their role in mitigating the damage done by roads. Plant pollination by insects is one of the most important ecosystem services. Because of its nature and the fact that they extend across a variety of landscapes, roadside can contribute to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems, under the condition of adapted management practices. This research is the first attempt to develop a System Dynamics-based aiming to estimate the ecological and economic impact of maintenance on the road verge pollination service in France. Maintenance strategies of road verges are simulated to compare their performance. The results show that there are ways to improve current maintenance strategies in terms of pollination value, but also that the model needs to consider other ecosystem services and synergistic effects that could further affect pollination to obtain more accurate estimations.

A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin

The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method

Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.

Analysis and forecasts of investment scale and structure in upstream sector for oil companies based on system dynamics

Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.

SIMULATING REGIONAL SYSTEMS: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modelling and analysis for design of system structure and the improvement of system behaviour. It can be applied to the study of a wide range of systems, and its ability to describe socio-economic characteristics and behaviour makes it suitable for the analysis of the regional development process. Three examples of System Dynamics models are reviewd to demonstrate the suitability of the method for regional analysis, and on the basis of this review the potential use of system dynamics models in China is discussed.

Unsuspected implications arising from assumptions in simulations: insights from recasting a forest growth model in system dynamics

Background:Familiarity with a simulation platform can seduce modellers into accepting untested assumptions for convenience of implementation.These assumptions may have consequences greater than commonly suspected,and it is important that modellers remain mindful of assumptions and remain diligent with sensitivity testing.Methods:Familiarity with a technique can lead to complacency,and alternative approaches and software can reveal untested assumptions.Visual modelling environments based on system dynamics may help to make critical assumptions more evident by offering an accessible visual overview and empowering a focus on representational rather than computational efficiency.This capacity is illustrated using a cohort-based forest growth model developed for mixed species forest.Results:The alternative model implementation revealed that untested assumptions in the original model could have substantial influence on simulated outcomes.Conclusions:An important implication is that modellers should remain conscious of all assumptions,consider alternative implementations that reveal assumptions more clearly,and conduct sensitivity tests to inform decisions.

Exploring effective policies for underground water management in artificial oasis: a system dynamics analysis of a case study of Yaoba Oasis

The development of oasis along the edge of the Tengerli Desert, where underground water is available, is one of the major strategies to reallocate 'ecological refuges' from their seriously degraded grasslands to agriculturally cultivable land. Yet, underground water resources, the major constraint, hate not been fully integrated in the development process. Therefore, the decline of water resources and deterioration of water quality caused by over-consumption of water resources has begun to hinder further development and has even fed to the abandonment of some oasis. A system dynamics modeling approach is applied to analyze the water use and water management structures in Yaoba Oasis as a case study. The study attempts to identify the characteristics of major feedback loops, which dominate the over-use of underground water resources leading to the deterioration of water resources in quantity and quality.

Impact of the synergy between technology management and technological capability on new product development:a system dynamics approach

This paper employs system dynamics to explore how the synergy between technology management and technological capability affects new product development.The results show that the synergy between technology management and technological capability has positive impact on new product development.Moreover, the leading synergy processes between technology management and technological capability in different new product development stages are different.This paper deepens the theoretical understanding of how to achieve new product development, and also provides useful guidance for firms to implement new product development.

System dynamics of behaviour-evolutionary mix-game models

In real financial markets there are two kinds of traders： one is fundamentalist, and the other is a trend-follower. The mix-game model is proposed to mimic such phenomena. In a mix-game model there are two groups of agents： Group 1 plays the majority game and Group 2 plays the minority game. In this paper, we investigate such a case that some traders in real financial markets could change their investment behaviours by assigning the evolutionary abilities to agents： if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will join the other group; and agents will repeat such an evolution at certain time intervals. Through the simulations, we obtain the following findings： （i） the volatilities of systems increase with the increase of the number of agents in Group 1 and the times of behavioural changes of all agents; （ii） the performances of agents in both groups and the stabilities of systems become better if all agents take more time to observe their new investment behaviours; （iii） there are two-phase zones of market and non-market and two-phase zones of evolution and non-evolution; （iv） parameter configurations located within the cross areas between the zones of markets and the zones of evolution are suited for simulating the financial markets.

System dynamics simulation of the civil-military integrated innovation system of military enterprises

Civil-military inosculation of military enterprises benefits national defense industries by promoting the building of civil-military inosculation innovation system. To analyze the operation mechanism of the civil-military integrated innovation system of the military enterprises under the new situation, the system dynamics method is used to study the feedback relations among the factors and structure of the system and the Anylogic software is used to establish the simulation model . The simulation results indicate that： the degree of enthusiasm of private enterprises to participate in the defense industry, the degree of information sharing and the degree of cooperation between the mili- tary enterprises and universities and research institutions are extremely important in the civil-military integrated innovation system. According to the simulation results, some targeted suggestions are put forward to strengthen the innovational civil-military integrated system building of the military enter- prises.

Opening Address to the 1987 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

1987年国际系统动力学会议于今年6月9日至12日在上海召开。同时,会议收到的各国学者的64篇论文也在我院汇篇成论文集。现选择其中有代表性的6篇在本刊发表,本期刊登的是:国务院发展研究中心总干事、我国著名社会经济学家马洪教授的开幕词;国际系统动力学创始人、美国MIT教授Jay.W.Forrester的“系统动力学在城市与区域发展分析上的应用”;国际系统动力学协会政策委员会委员、全国系统动力学学术委员会筹委会主任、本院王其藩教授的“系统动力学的哲学观和基本理论”。

System Dynamics Forecasting on Taiwan Power Supply Chain

This research aims to study the sustainability of Taiwan power supplychain based on system dynamics forecasting. The paper tries to investigate electricity shortage effects not only on the industrial side, but also from the standpointof society. In our model, different forecasting methods such as linear regression,time series analysis, and gray forecasting are also considered to predict the parameters. Further tests such as the structure, dimension, historical fit, and sensitivityof the model are also conducted in this paper. Through analysis forecasting result,we believe that the demand for electricity in Taiwan will continue to increase to acertain level for a period of time in the future. This phenomenon is closely relatedto Taiwan’s economic development, especially industrial development. We alsopoint out that electricity prices in Taiwan do not match with high industrialdemand, and that prices are still slightly low. Finally, the future growth trend ofTaiwan’s electricity demand has not changed, and ensuring adequate supply tomeet electricity demand to prevent potential power shortages will pose somedifficulty.

Philosophical Views and Basic Theories of System Dynamics

System dynamics, founded by professor Forrester at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1956, is a discipline which analyzes and studies the system of information feedback. Basic views of theories of system dynamics distinctively show its dialectical characteristics. More attention should be paid to the features of complicated nonlinear systems. The model simulation of system dynamics is a kind of structure-function simulation. One of the remarkable advantages of system dynamics is that it can handle problems of high order, nonlinear and multiplefeedback system.

Research on the Dynamic Relationships among Taiwan’s Early Childhood Education and Its Stakeholders: The System Dynamics Perspective

In Taiwan,the low birth rate has become one of the most critical problems faced by the government and educational institutions at all levels.The enrolling student number of kindergartens perhaps is the most directly affected by such trend.The purpose of this study aims at constructing a system dynamics model to depict the relationships between the preschool children and their stakeholders for deducing the evolutionary trends of,and the interactions of,governmental policies and the operations of the early childhood education institutions.Through the interpretation of policies and simulation analysis of the twenty-year growth trend related to the child population in Taiwan,this study found that governmental policies and the promotion of education and care services have a positive effect on the growth of all levels of kindergarten classes.Besides,the relationship between the education and care service staff and the kindergarten play a causal balancing role in our proposed model.We suggest that the system dynamics model proposed by this study can help to observe the dynamic relationships formed by the stakeholders in preschool education and care system based on the“joint responsibility”of Taiwan’s early childhood education.

The Handling of “Waiters” Problem by Telecommunication Service Provider: A System Dynamics Approach

The queueing theory has been used by academicians and practitioners to solve supply chain problems over the years. Here, we propose a system dynamics approach and queuing theory parameters to discover the best method to handle the (supply chain) “Waiters” problem via a telecommunication service provider. We developed more than one system dynamics model and introduced the following parameters: the number of times information about registered waiters and the number of days required for procuring and commissioning the (telecommunication) ports are collected in a month. We found the number of waiting times for the customers is reduced and improved when the above-mentioned first parameter is performed more frequently (i.e., more than once).

OPENING NEW HORIZONS FOR VEHICLE SYSTEM DYNAMICS

The non-linear wheel-rail motional model is the first research breakthrough I have made in the field of vehicle system dynamics. The main external interference to a vehicle system in rail-borne transportation comes from the dynamic interaction between the wheel and the rail. To determine the forces exerted on the rail-contacting patches of a railcar is known to be one of the most complicated problems in rail haulage, expecially in its unsaturated state, i.e. before overall sliding occurs. Since the 1960s, many scholars, including K.L. Johnson and J.J.Kalker, have considered it a problem in rolling contact mechanics. However, none of the presented

The Construction and Application of Work and Production Resuming Behavior System Dynamics Evolutionary Game Regulation and Control Model

The resumption of production after the“suspension”caused by the COVID-19 has emerged as an urgent problem for many enterprises and the government.The resumption of production is actually a dynamic evolution problem from 0 to 1(100%).This paper constructs a general game model and a dynamic replication system for the resumption of production and government support,and gives theorems for the construction of the model.It analyzes the evolution mechanism and scenario conditions for the convergence of enterprise strategies to the“resumption of production”strategy,takes the resumption of production of hog farmers as an example to carry out a study on the regulation of countermeasures to resume hog production,and explores systemic countermeasures and suggestions for the rapid convergence of farmers’strategies to the“resumption of work and production”strategy.The study found that the production resuming behavior system dynamics evolution game regulation model provides a systematic model and method for the study of resumption countermeasures,a general regulation model for the resumption ratio from 0 to 1(100%),and a systematic idea,method and model for exploring the“precise strategy”system to promote the rapid resumption of production.