Based on an analysis of the fractal structures and mass transport mechanism of typical shear-fluid-ore formation system, the fractal dispersion theory of the fluid system was used in the dynamic study of the ore forma...Based on an analysis of the fractal structures and mass transport mechanism of typical shear-fluid-ore formation system, the fractal dispersion theory of the fluid system was used in the dynamic study of the ore formation system. The model of point-source diffusive illuviation of the shear-fluid-ore formation system was constructed, and the numerical simulation of dynamics of the ore formation system was finished. The result shows that: (1) The metallogenic system have nested fractal structure. Different fractal dimension values in different systems show unbalance and inhomogeneity of ore-forming processes in the geohistory. It is an important parameter to symbolize the process of remobilization and accumulation of ore-forming materials. Also it can indicate the dynamics of the metallogenic system quantitatively to some extent. (2) In essence, the fractal dispersive ore-forming dynamics is a combination of multi-processes dominated by fluid dynamics and supplemented by molecule dispersion in fluids and fluid-rock interaction. It changes components and physico-chemical properties of primary rocks and fluids, favouring deposition and mineralization of ore-forming materials. (3) Gold ore-forming processes in different types of shear zones are quite different. (1) In a metallogenic system with inhomogeneous volumetric change and inhomogeneous shear, mineralization occurs in structural barriers in the centre of a shear zone and in geochemical barriers in the shear zone near its boundaries. But there is little possibility of mineralization out of the shear zone. (2) As to a metallogenic system with inhomogeneous volumetric change and simple shear, mineralization may occur only in structural barriers near the centre of the shear zone. (3) In a metallogenic system with homogeneous volumetric change and inhomogeneous shear, mineralization may occur in geochemical barriers both within and out of the shear zone.展开更多
In lifting sub-system of deep-sea mining system, spherical joint is used to connect lifting pipes to replace fixed joint. Based on Dynamics of Flexible Multi-body systems, the mechanics model of articulated lifting sy...In lifting sub-system of deep-sea mining system, spherical joint is used to connect lifting pipes to replace fixed joint. Based on Dynamics of Flexible Multi-body systems, the mechanics model of articulated lifting system is established. Under the four-grade and six-grade oceanic condition, dynamic responses of lifting system are simulated and experiment verified. The simulation results are consistent with experimental ones. The maximum moment of flexion is 322 kN-m on the first pipe under six-grade sea condition. It is seen that the articulated connection can reduce the moment of flexion. The bending deformation of pipe center is researched, and the maximum is 0. 000479 m on the first pipe. Deformation has a little effect on the motion of system. It is feasible to analyze articulated lifting system by applying the theory of flexible multi-body dynamics. The articulated lifting system is obviously better than the fixed one.展开更多
For completing the hydrodynamics software development and the engineering application research on the amphibious vehicle systems, hydrodynamic modeling theory of the amphibious vehicle systems is elaborated, which inc...For completing the hydrodynamics software development and the engineering application research on the amphibious vehicle systems, hydrodynamic modeling theory of the amphibious vehicle systems is elaborated, which includes to build up the dynamic system model of amphibious vehicle motion on water, gun tracking-aiming-firing, bullet hit and armored check-target, gunner operating control, and the simulation computed model of time domain for random sea wave.展开更多
A deep understanding of the internal ballistic process and the factors affecting it is of primary importance to efficiently design a gun system and ensure its safe management. One of the main goals of internal ballist...A deep understanding of the internal ballistic process and the factors affecting it is of primary importance to efficiently design a gun system and ensure its safe management. One of the main goals of internal ballistics is to estimate the gas pressure into the combustion chamber and the projectile muzzle velocity in order to use the propellant to its higher efficiency while avoiding over-pressure phenomena. Dealing with the internal ballistic problem is a complex undertaking since it requires handling the interaction between different constituents during a transient time lapse with very steep rise of pressure and temperature. Several approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on different assumptions and techniques. Generally, depending on the used mathematical framework, they can be classified into two categories: computational fluid dynamics-based models and lumped-parameter ones. By focusing on gun systems, this paper offers a review of the main contributions in the field by mentioning their advantages and drawbacks. An insight into the limitations of the currently available modelling strategies is provided,as well as some considerations on the choice of one model over another. Lumped-parameter models, for example, are a good candidate for performing parametric analysis and optimisation processes of gun systems, given their minimum requirements of computer resources. Conversely, CFD-based models have a better capacity to address more sophisticated phenomena like pressure waves and turbulent flow effects. The performed review also reveals that too little attention has been given to small calibre guns since the majority of currently available models are conceived for medium and large calibre gun systems.Similarly, aspects like wear phenomena, bore deformations or projectile-barrel interactions still need to be adequately addressed and our suggestion is to dedicate more effort on it.展开更多
System dynamics (SD) theory has long been deployed in modeling complex non-linear interrelationships but, so far it has not been common to do the kind of modeling in support of bringing environmental sustainability po...System dynamics (SD) theory has long been deployed in modeling complex non-linear interrelationships but, so far it has not been common to do the kind of modeling in support of bringing environmental sustainability policies to practice. This is largely because the challenge of including spatial data has not yet been well met. Potential for adoption of SD and GIS methods in combination is exemplified with the results of a decision-support exercise designed for simulation and prediction of the dynamic inter-relationships between socio-economic development and environmental quality for the "Wen, Pi, Du" county in Sichuan province, southwestern China.展开更多
The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of syste...The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of system dynamics(SD) modeling and the relationship between industrial relocation and regional economic growth, we construct a model of the interrelationship between the two aforementioned phenomena. The model is an effective and creative exploration for examining effects of industrial relocation on Chinese regional economic growth disparities. The SD model is employed in this study to build an inter-regional labor migration SD model, an inter-regional capital migration SD model, an intra-industry SD model, an intra-regional population SD model, and an intra-regional SD model which are based on realities in labor and capital flow from the view of industrial relocation. VENSIM software is utilized to perform a system simulation based on the data of the eastern, middle, and western regions from 2000 to 2010. Results show that industrial relocation gradually narrows the relative disparity in GDP among the three regions. Moreover, the absolute one is enlarged continuously. The absolute and relative disparities in per capita GDP among eastern, middle, and western regions generally exhibit decreasing trends.展开更多
Fully mechanized mining with large mining height(FMMLMH)is widely used in thick coal seam mining face for its higher recovery ratio,especially where the thickness is less than 7.0 m.However,because of the great mining...Fully mechanized mining with large mining height(FMMLMH)is widely used in thick coal seam mining face for its higher recovery ratio,especially where the thickness is less than 7.0 m.However,because of the great mining height and intense rock pressure,the coal wall rib spalling,roof falling and the instability of support occur more likely in FMMLMH working face,and the above three types of disasters interact with each other with complicated relationships.In order to get the relationship between each two of coal wall,roof,floor and support,and reduce the occurrence probability of the three types of disasters,we established the system dynamics(SD)model of the support-surrounding rock system which is composed of"coal wall-roof-floor-support"(CW-R-F-S)in a FMMLMH working face based on the condition of No.15104 working face in Sijiazhuang coal mine.With the software of Vensim,we also simulated the interaction process between each two factors of roof,floor,coal wall and the support.The results show that the SD model of"CW-R-F-S"system can reveal the complicated and interactive relationship clearly between the support and surrounding rock in the FMMLMH working face.By increasing the advancing speed of working face,the support resistance or the length of support guard,or by decreasing the tipto-face distance,the stability of"CW-R-F-S"system will be higher and the happening probability of the disasters such as coal wall rib spalling,roof falling or the instability of support will be lower.These research findings have been testified in field application in No.15104 working face,which can provide a new approach for researching the interaction relationship of support and surrounding rock.展开更多
A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) was set up using the method of system dynamics (SD). In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted: (1) continuity of...A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) was set up using the method of system dynamics (SD). In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted: (1) continuity of existing water utilization, (2) water conservation/saving, and (3) water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.展开更多
The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to m...The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors: 1 ) natural surface and groundwater resources; 2) water demand; 3) the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4) water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.展开更多
System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates ...System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modelling and analysis for design of system structure and the improvement of system behaviour. It can be applied to the study of a wide range of systems, and its ability to describe socio-economic characteristics and behaviour makes it suitable for the analysis of the regional development process. Three examples of System Dynamics models are reviewd to demonstrate the suitability of the method for regional analysis, and on the basis of this review the potential use of system dynamics models in China is discussed.展开更多
Two methods of stability analysis of systems described by dynamical equations are being considered. They are based on an analysis of eigenvalues spectrum for the evolutionary matrix or the spectral equation and they a...Two methods of stability analysis of systems described by dynamical equations are being considered. They are based on an analysis of eigenvalues spectrum for the evolutionary matrix or the spectral equation and they allow determining the conditions of stability and instability, as well as the possibility of chaotic behavior of systems in case of a stability loss. The methods are illustrated for nonlinear Lorenz and Rossler model problems.展开更多
When acquaintances of a model are little or the model is too complicate to build by using traditional time series methods, it is convenient for us to take advantage of genetic programming (GP) to build the model. Cons...When acquaintances of a model are little or the model is too complicate to build by using traditional time series methods, it is convenient for us to take advantage of genetic programming (GP) to build the model. Considering the complexity of nonlinear dynamic systems, this paper proposes modeling dynamic systems by using the nonlinear difference e-quation based on GP technique. First it gives the method, criteria and evaluation of modeling. Then it describes the modeling algorithm using GP. Finally two typical examples of time series are used to perform the numerical experiments. The result shows that this algorithm can successfully establish the difference equation model of dynamic systems and its predictive result is also satisfactory.展开更多
As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present s...As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present study is designed to build a Systems'model by incorporating major activities of the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project(BTTAP)with special focus on afforestation activities to estimate the growth in forest area of KP.Availability of complete dataset was a challenge.To fix the model,the raw data taken from the project office has been utilized.Planning Commission Form 1-Phase I&II helped us with additional information.We relied on the data available for one and half period of the project as rest of the data is subject to the completion of the project.Our results show that the project target to enhance area under forest differs from the target to afforest area under the project.The system dynamics'model projection shows that the forest area of KP would be 23.59 million hectares at the end of the BTTA project,thus having an increase of 3.29%instead of 2%that has been initially proposed.However,the results show that the progress to meet the target in some afforestation classes is slow as compared to other categories.Farm forestry,plantation on communal lands and owners'plantation need special focus of the authority.Deforestation would affect 0.02 million hectares area of the project.The model under study may be used as a reference model that can be replicated to other areas where billion tree campaigns are going on.展开更多
With the action of small perturbation on generalized El-Nabulsi-Birkhoff fractional equations,the perturbation to Noether symmetries and adiabatic invariants are studied under the framework of El-Nabulsi′s fractional...With the action of small perturbation on generalized El-Nabulsi-Birkhoff fractional equations,the perturbation to Noether symmetries and adiabatic invariants are studied under the framework of El-Nabulsi′s fractional model.Firstly,based on the invariance of El-Nabulsi-Pfaff action under the infinitesimal transformations of group,the exact invariants are given.Secondly,on the basis of the definition of higher order adiabatic invariants of a dynamical system,the adiabatic invariants of the Noether symmetric perturbation for disturbed generalized El-Nabulsi′s fractional Birkhoff system are presented under some conditions,and some special cases are discussed.Finally,an example known as Hojman-Urrutia problem is given to illustrate the application of the results.展开更多
In real financial markets there are two kinds of traders: one is fundamentalist, and the other is a trend-follower. The mix-game model is proposed to mimic such phenomena. In a mix-game model there are two groups of ...In real financial markets there are two kinds of traders: one is fundamentalist, and the other is a trend-follower. The mix-game model is proposed to mimic such phenomena. In a mix-game model there are two groups of agents: Group 1 plays the majority game and Group 2 plays the minority game. In this paper, we investigate such a case that some traders in real financial markets could change their investment behaviours by assigning the evolutionary abilities to agents: if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will join the other group; and agents will repeat such an evolution at certain time intervals. Through the simulations, we obtain the following findings: (i) the volatilities of systems increase with the increase of the number of agents in Group 1 and the times of behavioural changes of all agents; (ii) the performances of agents in both groups and the stabilities of systems become better if all agents take more time to observe their new investment behaviours; (iii) there are two-phase zones of market and non-market and two-phase zones of evolution and non-evolution; (iv) parameter configurations located within the cross areas between the zones of markets and the zones of evolution are suited for simulating the financial markets.展开更多
Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environm...Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environment in a more sustainable manner. In this sense, the ecosystems known as road verges are particularly important because of their length and surface at an international scale, and their role in mitigating the damage done by roads. Plant pollination by insects is one of the most important ecosystem services. Because of its nature and the fact that they extend across a variety of landscapes, roadside can contribute to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems, under the condition of adapted management practices. This research is the first attempt to develop a System Dynamics-based aiming to estimate the ecological and economic impact of maintenance on the road verge pollination service in France. Maintenance strategies of road verges are simulated to compare their performance. The results show that there are ways to improve current maintenance strategies in terms of pollination value, but also that the model needs to consider other ecosystem services and synergistic effects that could further affect pollination to obtain more accurate estimations.展开更多
This work presents a novel least squares matrix algorithm (LSM) for the analysis of rapidly changing systems using state-space modelling. The LSM algorithm is based on the Hankel structured data matrix representation....This work presents a novel least squares matrix algorithm (LSM) for the analysis of rapidly changing systems using state-space modelling. The LSM algorithm is based on the Hankel structured data matrix representation. The state transition matrix is updated without the use of any forgetting function. This yields a robust estimation of model parameters in the presence of noise. The computational complexity of the LSM algorithm is comparable to the speed of the conventional recursive least squares (RLS) algorithm. The knowledge of the state transition matrix enables feasible numerical operators such as interpolation, fractional differentiation and integration. The usefulness of the LSM algorithm was proved in the analysis of the neuroelectric signal waveforms.展开更多
This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative ...This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative dynamic variable and an additive dynamic variable.The addressed DETM-based fuzzy MPC issue is described as a “min-max” optimization problem(OP).To facilitate the co-design of the MPC controller and the weighting matrix of the DETM,an auxiliary OP is proposed based on a new Lyapunov function and a new robust positive invariant(RPI) set that contain the membership functions and the hybrid dynamic variables.A dynamic event-triggered fuzzy MPC algorithm is developed accordingly,whose recursive feasibility is analysed by employing the RPI set.With the designed controller,the involved fuzzy system is ensured to be asymptotically stable.Two examples show that the new DETM and DETM-based MPC algorithm have the advantages of reducing resource consumption while yielding the anticipated performance.展开更多
The management and control of material flow forms the core of manufacturing execution systems (MES) in the petrochemical industry. The bottleneck in the application of MES is the ability to match the material-flow m...The management and control of material flow forms the core of manufacturing execution systems (MES) in the petrochemical industry. The bottleneck in the application of MES is the ability to match the material-flow model with the production processes. A dynamic material-flow model is proposed in this paper after an analysis of the material-flow characteristics of the production process in a petrochemical industry. The main material-flow events are described, including the movement, storage, shifting, recycling, and elimination of the materials. The spatial and temporal characters of the material-flow events are described, and the material-flow model is constructed. The dynamic material-flow model introduced herein is the basis for other subsystems in the MES. In addition, it is the subsystem with the least scale in MES. The dynamic-modeling method of material flow has been applied in the development of the SinoMES model. It helps the petrochemical plant to manage the entire flow information related to tanks and equipments from the aspects of measurement, storage, movement, and the remaining balance of the material. As a result, it matches the production process by error elimination and data reconciliation. In addition, it facilitates the integration of application modules into the MES and guarantees the potential development of SinoMES in future applications.展开更多
In this paper,a novel launch dynamics measurement system based on the photoelectric sensor pair is built.The actual muzzle time(i.e.a time duration that originates from the initial movement to the rocket’s departure ...In this paper,a novel launch dynamics measurement system based on the photoelectric sensor pair is built.The actual muzzle time(i.e.a time duration that originates from the initial movement to the rocket’s departure from the muzzle)and the muzzle velocity are measured.Compared with the classical methods,the actual muzzle time is obtained by eliminating the ignition delay.The comparative analysis method is proposed with numerical simulations established by the transfer matrix method for multibody systems.The experiment results indicate that the proposed measurement system can effectively measure the actual muzzle time and reduce the error of classical methods,which match well with the simulation results showing the launch dynamics model is reliable and helpful for further analysis and design of the MLRS.展开更多
基金The authors acknowledge the support of the National Key Basic Research Project No.G1999043206“Advanced School Key Teachers Supporting Program”of the Ministry of Education,the National Climbing Program of China No.95-pre-25 and 95-pre-39the“100 Trans-Century Science and Technology Talented Persons Cultivating Program”Foundation of the Ministry of Land and Mineral Resources No.9808.
文摘Based on an analysis of the fractal structures and mass transport mechanism of typical shear-fluid-ore formation system, the fractal dispersion theory of the fluid system was used in the dynamic study of the ore formation system. The model of point-source diffusive illuviation of the shear-fluid-ore formation system was constructed, and the numerical simulation of dynamics of the ore formation system was finished. The result shows that: (1) The metallogenic system have nested fractal structure. Different fractal dimension values in different systems show unbalance and inhomogeneity of ore-forming processes in the geohistory. It is an important parameter to symbolize the process of remobilization and accumulation of ore-forming materials. Also it can indicate the dynamics of the metallogenic system quantitatively to some extent. (2) In essence, the fractal dispersive ore-forming dynamics is a combination of multi-processes dominated by fluid dynamics and supplemented by molecule dispersion in fluids and fluid-rock interaction. It changes components and physico-chemical properties of primary rocks and fluids, favouring deposition and mineralization of ore-forming materials. (3) Gold ore-forming processes in different types of shear zones are quite different. (1) In a metallogenic system with inhomogeneous volumetric change and inhomogeneous shear, mineralization occurs in structural barriers in the centre of a shear zone and in geochemical barriers in the shear zone near its boundaries. But there is little possibility of mineralization out of the shear zone. (2) As to a metallogenic system with inhomogeneous volumetric change and simple shear, mineralization may occur only in structural barriers near the centre of the shear zone. (3) In a metallogenic system with homogeneous volumetric change and inhomogeneous shear, mineralization may occur in geochemical barriers both within and out of the shear zone.
基金This research project was financially supported by China Ocean Mineral Resources R&D Association(Grant No.DY105-03-02-17)Ph.D.Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(Grant No.20060008025)
文摘In lifting sub-system of deep-sea mining system, spherical joint is used to connect lifting pipes to replace fixed joint. Based on Dynamics of Flexible Multi-body systems, the mechanics model of articulated lifting system is established. Under the four-grade and six-grade oceanic condition, dynamic responses of lifting system are simulated and experiment verified. The simulation results are consistent with experimental ones. The maximum moment of flexion is 322 kN-m on the first pipe under six-grade sea condition. It is seen that the articulated connection can reduce the moment of flexion. The bending deformation of pipe center is researched, and the maximum is 0. 000479 m on the first pipe. Deformation has a little effect on the motion of system. It is feasible to analyze articulated lifting system by applying the theory of flexible multi-body dynamics. The articulated lifting system is obviously better than the fixed one.
文摘For completing the hydrodynamics software development and the engineering application research on the amphibious vehicle systems, hydrodynamic modeling theory of the amphibious vehicle systems is elaborated, which includes to build up the dynamic system model of amphibious vehicle motion on water, gun tracking-aiming-firing, bullet hit and armored check-target, gunner operating control, and the simulation computed model of time domain for random sea wave.
基金the support provided by the Royal Higher Institute for Defence (RHID) of the Belgian Defence, which has contributed to the progress of this ongoing research.
文摘A deep understanding of the internal ballistic process and the factors affecting it is of primary importance to efficiently design a gun system and ensure its safe management. One of the main goals of internal ballistics is to estimate the gas pressure into the combustion chamber and the projectile muzzle velocity in order to use the propellant to its higher efficiency while avoiding over-pressure phenomena. Dealing with the internal ballistic problem is a complex undertaking since it requires handling the interaction between different constituents during a transient time lapse with very steep rise of pressure and temperature. Several approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on different assumptions and techniques. Generally, depending on the used mathematical framework, they can be classified into two categories: computational fluid dynamics-based models and lumped-parameter ones. By focusing on gun systems, this paper offers a review of the main contributions in the field by mentioning their advantages and drawbacks. An insight into the limitations of the currently available modelling strategies is provided,as well as some considerations on the choice of one model over another. Lumped-parameter models, for example, are a good candidate for performing parametric analysis and optimisation processes of gun systems, given their minimum requirements of computer resources. Conversely, CFD-based models have a better capacity to address more sophisticated phenomena like pressure waves and turbulent flow effects. The performed review also reveals that too little attention has been given to small calibre guns since the majority of currently available models are conceived for medium and large calibre gun systems.Similarly, aspects like wear phenomena, bore deformations or projectile-barrel interactions still need to be adequately addressed and our suggestion is to dedicate more effort on it.
文摘System dynamics (SD) theory has long been deployed in modeling complex non-linear interrelationships but, so far it has not been common to do the kind of modeling in support of bringing environmental sustainability policies to practice. This is largely because the challenge of including spatial data has not yet been well met. Potential for adoption of SD and GIS methods in combination is exemplified with the results of a decision-support exercise designed for simulation and prediction of the dynamic inter-relationships between socio-economic development and environmental quality for the "Wen, Pi, Du" county in Sichuan province, southwestern China.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41171099)National Key Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB955802)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.10ZD&022)
文摘The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of system dynamics(SD) modeling and the relationship between industrial relocation and regional economic growth, we construct a model of the interrelationship between the two aforementioned phenomena. The model is an effective and creative exploration for examining effects of industrial relocation on Chinese regional economic growth disparities. The SD model is employed in this study to build an inter-regional labor migration SD model, an inter-regional capital migration SD model, an intra-industry SD model, an intra-regional population SD model, and an intra-regional SD model which are based on realities in labor and capital flow from the view of industrial relocation. VENSIM software is utilized to perform a system simulation based on the data of the eastern, middle, and western regions from 2000 to 2010. Results show that industrial relocation gradually narrows the relative disparity in GDP among the three regions. Moreover, the absolute one is enlarged continuously. The absolute and relative disparities in per capita GDP among eastern, middle, and western regions generally exhibit decreasing trends.
基金Financial support for this work,provided by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(No.SZBF2011-6-B35)the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China(No.20120095120017)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2012AA062101)
文摘Fully mechanized mining with large mining height(FMMLMH)is widely used in thick coal seam mining face for its higher recovery ratio,especially where the thickness is less than 7.0 m.However,because of the great mining height and intense rock pressure,the coal wall rib spalling,roof falling and the instability of support occur more likely in FMMLMH working face,and the above three types of disasters interact with each other with complicated relationships.In order to get the relationship between each two of coal wall,roof,floor and support,and reduce the occurrence probability of the three types of disasters,we established the system dynamics(SD)model of the support-surrounding rock system which is composed of"coal wall-roof-floor-support"(CW-R-F-S)in a FMMLMH working face based on the condition of No.15104 working face in Sijiazhuang coal mine.With the software of Vensim,we also simulated the interaction process between each two factors of roof,floor,coal wall and the support.The results show that the SD model of"CW-R-F-S"system can reveal the complicated and interactive relationship clearly between the support and surrounding rock in the FMMLMH working face.By increasing the advancing speed of working face,the support resistance or the length of support guard,or by decreasing the tipto-face distance,the stability of"CW-R-F-S"system will be higher and the happening probability of the disasters such as coal wall rib spalling,roof falling or the instability of support will be lower.These research findings have been testified in field application in No.15104 working face,which can provide a new approach for researching the interaction relationship of support and surrounding rock.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.50638020)
文摘A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) was set up using the method of system dynamics (SD). In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted: (1) continuity of existing water utilization, (2) water conservation/saving, and (3) water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951004)a project of Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences (XJYS0907-2009-02)
文摘The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors: 1 ) natural surface and groundwater resources; 2) water demand; 3) the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4) water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.
文摘System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modelling and analysis for design of system structure and the improvement of system behaviour. It can be applied to the study of a wide range of systems, and its ability to describe socio-economic characteristics and behaviour makes it suitable for the analysis of the regional development process. Three examples of System Dynamics models are reviewd to demonstrate the suitability of the method for regional analysis, and on the basis of this review the potential use of system dynamics models in China is discussed.
文摘Two methods of stability analysis of systems described by dynamical equations are being considered. They are based on an analysis of eigenvalues spectrum for the evolutionary matrix or the spectral equation and they allow determining the conditions of stability and instability, as well as the possibility of chaotic behavior of systems in case of a stability loss. The methods are illustrated for nonlinear Lorenz and Rossler model problems.
基金Supported by Foundation for University Key Teacher by the Ministry of Education of China
文摘When acquaintances of a model are little or the model is too complicate to build by using traditional time series methods, it is convenient for us to take advantage of genetic programming (GP) to build the model. Considering the complexity of nonlinear dynamic systems, this paper proposes modeling dynamic systems by using the nonlinear difference e-quation based on GP technique. First it gives the method, criteria and evaluation of modeling. Then it describes the modeling algorithm using GP. Finally two typical examples of time series are used to perform the numerical experiments. The result shows that this algorithm can successfully establish the difference equation model of dynamic systems and its predictive result is also satisfactory.
文摘As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present study is designed to build a Systems'model by incorporating major activities of the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project(BTTAP)with special focus on afforestation activities to estimate the growth in forest area of KP.Availability of complete dataset was a challenge.To fix the model,the raw data taken from the project office has been utilized.Planning Commission Form 1-Phase I&II helped us with additional information.We relied on the data available for one and half period of the project as rest of the data is subject to the completion of the project.Our results show that the project target to enhance area under forest differs from the target to afforest area under the project.The system dynamics'model projection shows that the forest area of KP would be 23.59 million hectares at the end of the BTTA project,thus having an increase of 3.29%instead of 2%that has been initially proposed.However,the results show that the progress to meet the target in some afforestation classes is slow as compared to other categories.Farm forestry,plantation on communal lands and owners'plantation need special focus of the authority.Deforestation would affect 0.02 million hectares area of the project.The model under study may be used as a reference model that can be replicated to other areas where billion tree campaigns are going on.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.10972151,11272227)the Innovation Program for Scientific Research of Nanjing University of Science and Technology
文摘With the action of small perturbation on generalized El-Nabulsi-Birkhoff fractional equations,the perturbation to Noether symmetries and adiabatic invariants are studied under the framework of El-Nabulsi′s fractional model.Firstly,based on the invariance of El-Nabulsi-Pfaff action under the infinitesimal transformations of group,the exact invariants are given.Secondly,on the basis of the definition of higher order adiabatic invariants of a dynamical system,the adiabatic invariants of the Noether symmetric perturbation for disturbed generalized El-Nabulsi′s fractional Birkhoff system are presented under some conditions,and some special cases are discussed.Finally,an example known as Hojman-Urrutia problem is given to illustrate the application of the results.
基金Project supported by the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars,State Education Ministry of China
文摘In real financial markets there are two kinds of traders: one is fundamentalist, and the other is a trend-follower. The mix-game model is proposed to mimic such phenomena. In a mix-game model there are two groups of agents: Group 1 plays the majority game and Group 2 plays the minority game. In this paper, we investigate such a case that some traders in real financial markets could change their investment behaviours by assigning the evolutionary abilities to agents: if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will join the other group; and agents will repeat such an evolution at certain time intervals. Through the simulations, we obtain the following findings: (i) the volatilities of systems increase with the increase of the number of agents in Group 1 and the times of behavioural changes of all agents; (ii) the performances of agents in both groups and the stabilities of systems become better if all agents take more time to observe their new investment behaviours; (iii) there are two-phase zones of market and non-market and two-phase zones of evolution and non-evolution; (iv) parameter configurations located within the cross areas between the zones of markets and the zones of evolution are suited for simulating the financial markets.
文摘Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environment in a more sustainable manner. In this sense, the ecosystems known as road verges are particularly important because of their length and surface at an international scale, and their role in mitigating the damage done by roads. Plant pollination by insects is one of the most important ecosystem services. Because of its nature and the fact that they extend across a variety of landscapes, roadside can contribute to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems, under the condition of adapted management practices. This research is the first attempt to develop a System Dynamics-based aiming to estimate the ecological and economic impact of maintenance on the road verge pollination service in France. Maintenance strategies of road verges are simulated to compare their performance. The results show that there are ways to improve current maintenance strategies in terms of pollination value, but also that the model needs to consider other ecosystem services and synergistic effects that could further affect pollination to obtain more accurate estimations.
文摘This work presents a novel least squares matrix algorithm (LSM) for the analysis of rapidly changing systems using state-space modelling. The LSM algorithm is based on the Hankel structured data matrix representation. The state transition matrix is updated without the use of any forgetting function. This yields a robust estimation of model parameters in the presence of noise. The computational complexity of the LSM algorithm is comparable to the speed of the conventional recursive least squares (RLS) algorithm. The knowledge of the state transition matrix enables feasible numerical operators such as interpolation, fractional differentiation and integration. The usefulness of the LSM algorithm was proved in the analysis of the neuroelectric signal waveforms.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (62073303,61673356)Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (2015CFA010)the 111 Project(B17040)。
文摘This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative dynamic variable and an additive dynamic variable.The addressed DETM-based fuzzy MPC issue is described as a “min-max” optimization problem(OP).To facilitate the co-design of the MPC controller and the weighting matrix of the DETM,an auxiliary OP is proposed based on a new Lyapunov function and a new robust positive invariant(RPI) set that contain the membership functions and the hybrid dynamic variables.A dynamic event-triggered fuzzy MPC algorithm is developed accordingly,whose recursive feasibility is analysed by employing the RPI set.With the designed controller,the involved fuzzy system is ensured to be asymptotically stable.Two examples show that the new DETM and DETM-based MPC algorithm have the advantages of reducing resource consumption while yielding the anticipated performance.
基金the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No.2007AA04Z191).
文摘The management and control of material flow forms the core of manufacturing execution systems (MES) in the petrochemical industry. The bottleneck in the application of MES is the ability to match the material-flow model with the production processes. A dynamic material-flow model is proposed in this paper after an analysis of the material-flow characteristics of the production process in a petrochemical industry. The main material-flow events are described, including the movement, storage, shifting, recycling, and elimination of the materials. The spatial and temporal characters of the material-flow events are described, and the material-flow model is constructed. The dynamic material-flow model introduced herein is the basis for other subsystems in the MES. In addition, it is the subsystem with the least scale in MES. The dynamic-modeling method of material flow has been applied in the development of the SinoMES model. It helps the petrochemical plant to manage the entire flow information related to tanks and equipments from the aspects of measurement, storage, movement, and the remaining balance of the material. As a result, it matches the production process by error elimination and data reconciliation. In addition, it facilitates the integration of application modules into the MES and guarantees the potential development of SinoMES in future applications.
文摘In this paper,a novel launch dynamics measurement system based on the photoelectric sensor pair is built.The actual muzzle time(i.e.a time duration that originates from the initial movement to the rocket’s departure from the muzzle)and the muzzle velocity are measured.Compared with the classical methods,the actual muzzle time is obtained by eliminating the ignition delay.The comparative analysis method is proposed with numerical simulations established by the transfer matrix method for multibody systems.The experiment results indicate that the proposed measurement system can effectively measure the actual muzzle time and reduce the error of classical methods,which match well with the simulation results showing the launch dynamics model is reliable and helpful for further analysis and design of the MLRS.