The Simulation of Five Tropical Cyclones by Sample Optimization of Ensemble Forecasting Based on the Observed Track and Intensity

The quality of ensemble forecasting is seriously affected by sample quality.In this study,the distributions of ensemble members based on the observed track and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs)were optimized and their influence on the simulation results was analyzed.Simulated and observed tracks and intensities of TCs were compared and these two indicators were combined and weighted to score the sample.Samples with higher scores were retained and samples with lower scores were eliminated to improve the overall quality of the ensemble forecast.For each sample,the track score and intensity score were added as the final score of the sample with weight proportions of 10 to 0,9 to 1,8 to 2,7 to 3,6 to 4,5 to 5.These were named as“tr”,“91”,“82”,“73”,“64”,and“55”,respectively.The WRF model was used to simulate five tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific to test the ability of this scheme to improve the forecast track and intensity of these cyclones.The results show that the sample optimization effectively reduced the track and intensity error,“55”usually had better performance on the short-term intensity prediction,and“tr”had better performance in short-term track prediction.From the overall performance of the track and intensity simulation,“91”was the best and most stable among all sample optimization schemes.These results may provide some guidance for optimizing operational ensemble forecasting of TCs.

A STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON NIDA(2016) USING A NEW DOUBLE-MOMENT MICROPHYSICS SCHEME IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL

The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly-used microphysics scheme(WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme,it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required.

Regional Allocation of CO_2 Intensity Reduction Targets Based on Cluster Analysis

To meet China＇s CO2 intensity target of 40%-45% reduction by 2020 based on the 2005 level, a regional allocation method based on cluster analysis is developed. Thirty Chinese provinces are classified into six groups based on economy, emissions, and reduction potential indicators. Under the equity principle, the two most developed groups axe assigned the highest reduction targets （55% and 65%, respectively）. However, their reduction potent!al is limited. Under the efficiency principle, the two groups with the highest reduction potential take the highest targets （48% and 61%, respectively）, but their economy is relatively backward. When equity and efficiency are equally weighted, the 5th group with a prominent reduction potential takes the highest target （54%）, and the 2nd and the 3rd groups with large industry scales take the second highest target （49%）. However, under all the three allocation schemes, the targets are not greater than 40% for the 4th and the 6th groups, which have a relatively low economic ability, emissions, and reduction potential. Due to inconsistency between economic and reduction potential, corresponding market mechanisms and policy instruments should be established to ensure equity and efficiency of regional target allocation.

Numerical Study on the Two-Dimensional Temperature Fields of Titanium/Aluminum Double-Layer Target Irradiated by High-Intensity Pulsed Ion Beam

Interaction between high-intensity pulsed ion beam （HIPIB） and a double-layer target with titanium film on top of aluminum substrate was simulated. The two-dimensional nonlinear thermal conduction equations, with the deposited energy in the target taken as source term, were derived and solved by finite differential method. As a result, the two-dimensional spatial and temporal evolution profiles of temperature were obtained for a titanium/aluminum double-layer target irradiated by a pulse of HIPIB. The effects of ion beam current density on the phase state of the target materials near the film and substrate interface were analyzed. Both titanium and aluminum were melted near the interface after a shot when the ion beam current density fell in the range of 100 A/cm2 to 200 A/cm2.

A hefty target of reducing the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions

At the end of January, China formally handed over the report on pollution reduction targets to the United Nations.

Multiple model PHD filter for tracking sharply maneuvering targets using recursive RANSAC based adaptive birth estimation

An algorithm to track multiple sharply maneuvering targets without prior knowledge about new target birth is proposed. These targets are capable of achieving sharp maneuvers within a short period of time, such as drones and agile missiles.The probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter, which propagates only the first-order statistical moment of the full target posterior, has been shown to be a computationally efficient solution to multitarget tracking problems. However, the standard PHD filter operates on the single dynamic model and requires prior information about target birth distribution, which leads to many limitations in terms of practical applications. In this paper,we introduce a nonzero mean, white noise turn rate dynamic model and generalize jump Markov systems to multitarget case to accommodate sharply maneuvering dynamics. Moreover, to adaptively estimate newborn targets’information, a measurement-driven method based on the recursive random sampling consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is proposed. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves significant improvement in tracking multiple sharply maneuvering targets with adaptive birth estimation.

A NOVEL CLASSIFICATION METHOD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE ANALYSIS BASED ON HIERARCHICAL PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM

Based on the tropical cyclone(TC) observations in the western North Pacific from 2000 to 2008, this paper adopts the particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm of evolutionary computation to optimize one comprehensive classification rule, and apply the optimized classification rule to the forecasting of TC intensity change. In the process of the optimization, the strategy of hierarchical pruning has been adopted in the PSO algorithm to narrow the search area,and thus to enhance the local search ability, i.e. hierarchical PSO algorithm. The TC intensity classification rule involves core attributes including 12-HMWS, MPI, and Rainrate which play vital roles in TC intensity change. The testing accuracy using the new mined rule by hierarchical PSO algorithm reaches 89.6%. The current study shows that the novel classification method for TC intensity change analysis based on hierarchic PSO algorithm is not only easy to explain the source of rule core attributes, but also has great potential to improve the forecasting of TC intensity change.

研发强度目标、数字经济发展与产业链现代化

文章基于2007—2022年我国30个省份的面板数据,以研发强度目标设定作为准自然实验,采用双重差分模型和中介效应模型实证检验研发强度目标对产业链现代化的影响效应及其作用机制。研究发现:研发强度目标可以显著促进产业链现代化。进一步分析发现,研发强度目标的促进作用呈现异质性,表现为在沿海地区和低技术水平地区显著,而在内陆地区和高技术水平地区不显著。中介机制检验结果表明,研发强度目标会通过促进数字经济的发展来提升产业链现代化水平,包括推动数字产业发展、改善数字经济环境和优化数字基础设施。

双模态成像仿生纳米粒对甲状腺髓样癌的声动力治疗

背景:声动力疗法作为一种新型抗肿瘤治疗手段具有非侵入性和时空可控性的特点,在甲状腺髓样癌无创性治疗中具有广阔的应用前景。目的:制备具有双模态成像能力的仿生癌细胞膜涂层脂质纳米粒,检测纳米粒的理化性质、靶向能力、成像效果、细胞毒性和抗迁移能力。方法:以二棕榈酰磷脂酰胆碱、二棕榈酰磷脂酰甘油、二硬脂酰磷脂酰乙醇胺-聚乙二醇2000、胆固醇、血卟啉单甲醚、全氟己烷为原料,通过薄膜水合-超声振荡法制备脂质纳米粒HP@LNP,其中血卟啉单甲醚装载于脂质纳米结构的疏水层,全氟己烷装载于脂质纳米结构的亲水核心层内;将甲状腺髓样癌细胞膜包覆于脂质纳米粒HP@LNP表面,构建具有主动靶向甲状腺髓样癌细胞能力的仿生脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP。表征纳米粒MHP@LNP的理化性质、靶向能力、免疫逃逸能力、成像效果、细胞毒性和抗迁移能力。结果与结论:①脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP呈现典型的核壳结构,粒径为131.06 nm,平均电位为-30.59 mV,凝胶电泳结果显示脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP与癌细胞膜蛋白图谱相符合,荧光共定位结果显示脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP与癌细胞膜的荧光信号显著重合。脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP纳米粒内血卟啉单甲醚的包封率为87.8%,载药率为14.6%。在低强度聚焦超声刺激下,脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP可发生相变产生微泡,在4 min时超声信号强度达到最大值。在激光照射下,脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP的光声信号强度与其质量浓度呈现线性相关。脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP具有同源细胞靶向能力和免疫逃逸能力。未经低强度聚焦超声照射前的脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP具有良好的生物相容性,而经低强度聚焦超声照射后产生具有细胞毒性的活性氧,有效杀伤甲状腺髓样癌细胞,并抑制甲状腺髓样癌细胞的迁移能力。②结果表明,脂质纳米粒MHP@LNP能够在超声和光声双模态成像引导下实现声动力治疗,用于治疗甲状腺髓样癌。

深度学习在肿瘤智能放疗中的发展与展望

放疗是肿瘤综合治疗的重要手段之一,目前已发展至精确放疗阶段,但医疗资源分布不均、医师之间水平各异、放疗轮廓勾画耗时长、计划设计及图像引导配准存在人因影响、自适应放疗等问题仍有待完善。为适应时代发展,开展放疗的智能化探索十分必要。人工智能技术的日益发展为实现智能放疗提供了新的方法,且基于深度学习(Deep Learning,DL)技术在图形处理与输出方面效果显著,在放疗领域的图形处理需求和放疗流程中具有天然的优势。智能放疗可以推动精确放疗向智能化个性化方向发展。本研究综述了DL在肿瘤智能放疗流程中的应用现状及发展趋势。

Sensitivity to Tendency Perturbations of Tropical Cyclone Short-range Intensity Forecasts Generated by WRF

The present study uses the nonlinear singular vector(NFSV)approach to identify the optimally-growing tendency perturbations of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for tropical cyclone(TC)intensity forecasts.For nine selected TC cases,the NFSV-tendency perturbations of the WRF model,including components of potential temperature and/or moisture,are calculated when TC intensities are forecasted with a 24-hour lead time,and their respective potential temperature components are demonstrated to have more impact on the TC intensity forecasts.The perturbations coherently show barotropic structure around the central location of the TCs at the 24-hour lead time,and their dominant energies concentrate in the middle layers of the atmosphere.Moreover,such structures do not depend on TC intensities and subsequent development of the TC.The NFSV-tendency perturbations may indicate that the model uncertainty that is represented by tendency perturbations but associated with the inner-core of TCs,makes larger contributions to the TC intensity forecast uncertainty.Further analysis shows that the TC intensity forecast skill could be greatly improved as preferentially superimposing an appropriate tendency perturbation associated with the sensitivity of NFSVs to correct the model,even if using a WRF with coarse resolution.

A multiple template approach for robust tracking of fast motion target

Target tracking is very important in computer vision and related areas. It is usually difficult to accurately track fast motion target with appearance variations. Sometimes the tracking algorithms fail for heavy appearance variations. A multiple template method to track fast motion target with appearance changes is presented under the framework of appearance model with Kalman filter. Firstly, we construct a multiple template appearance model, which includes both the original template and templates affinely transformed from original one. Generally speaking, appearance variations of fast motion target can be covered by affine transformation. Therefore, the affine tr templates match the target of appearance variations better than conventional models. Secondly, we present an improved Kalman filter for approx- imate estimating the motion trail of the target and a modified similarity evaluation function for exact matching. The estimation approach can reduce time complexity of the algorithm and keep accuracy in the meantime. Thirdly, we propose an adaptive scheme for updating template set to alleviate the drift problem. The scheme considers the following differences： the weight differences in two successive frames; different types of affine transformation applied to templates. Finally, experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is robust to appearance varia- tion of fast motion target and achieves real-time performance on middle/low-range computing platform.

Can Adaptive Observations Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts?

In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone （TC） intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western North Pacific during the 2010 season according to the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） sensitivity,using the fifth version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model （MM5） and its 3DVAR assimilation system.A new intensity index was defined as the sum of the number of grid points within an allocated square centered at the corresponding forecast TC central position,that satisfy constraints associated with the Sea Level Pressure （SLP）,near-surface horizontal wind speed,and accumulated convective precipitation.The higher the index value is,the more intense the TC is.The impacts of the CNOP sensitivity on the intensity forecast were then estimated.The OSSE results showed that for 15 of the 20 cases there were improvements,with reductions of forecast errors in the range of 0.12％-8.59％,which were much less than in track forecasts.The indication,therefore,is that the CNOP sensitivity has a generally positive effect on TC intensity forecasts,but only to a certain degree.We conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better initialization of the TC vortex,are more important for an accurate TC intensity forecast.

Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts from Five Global Ensemble Prediction Systems During 2015-2019

This study presented an evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity forecasts from five global ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) during 2015-2019 in the western North Pacific region. Notable error features include the underestimation of the TC intensity by ensemble mean forecast and the under-dispersion of the probability forecasts.The root mean square errors(brier scores) of the ensemble mean(probability forecasts) generally decrease consecutively at long lead times during the five years, but fluctuate between certain values at short lead times.Positive forecast skill appeared in the most recent two years(2018-2019) at 120 h or later as compared with the climatology forecasts. However, there is no obvious improvement for the intensity change forecasts during the 5-year period, with abrupt intensity change remaining a big challenge. The probability forecasts show no skill for strong TCs at all the lead times. Among the five EPSs, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best for the intensity forecast, while NCEPGEFS ranks the best for the intensity change forecast, according to the evaluation of ensemble mean and dispersion.As for the other probability forecast evaluation, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best at lead times shorter than 72 h, while NCEP-GEFS ranks the best later on.

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Evaluations Using an Alternative Verification Technique

In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates.Using a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are computed.It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting.For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily.Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.

Prognostic value and predictive threshold of tumor volume for patients with locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy

Background: Gross target volume of primary tumor(GTV?P) is very important for the prognosis prediction of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC), but it is unknown whether the same is true for locally advanced NPC patients treated with intensity?modulated radiotherapy(IMRT). This study aimed to clarify the prognostic value of tumor volume for patient with locally advanced NPC receiving IMRT and to ind a suitable cut?of value of GTV?P for prognosis prediction.Methods: Clinical data of 358 patients with locally advanced NPC who received IMRT were reviewed. Receiver oper?ating characteristic(ROC) curves were used to identify the cut?of values of GTV?P for the prediction of diferent end?points [overall survival(OS), local relapse?free survival(LRFS), distant metastasis?free survival(DMFS), and disease?free survival(DFS)] and to test the prognostic value of GTV?P when compared with that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer T staging system.Results: The 358 patients with locally advanced NPC were divided into two groups by the cut?of value of GTV?P as determined using ROC curves: 219(61.2%) patients with GTV?P ≤46.4 mL and 139(38.8%) with GTV?P >46.4 mL. The 3?year OS, LRFS, DMFS, and DFS rates were all higher in patients with GTV?P ≤46.4 mL than in those with GTV?P > 46.4 mL(all P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that GTV?P >46.4 mL was an independent unfavorable prognostic factor for patient survival. The ROC curve veriied that the predictive ability of GTV?P was superior to that of T category(P < 0.001). The cut?of values of GTV?P for the prediction of OS, LRFS, DMFS, and DFS were 46.4, 57.9, 75.4 and 46.4 mL, respectively.Conclusion: In patients with locally advanced NPC, GTV?P >46.4 mL is an independent unfavorable prognostic indi?cator for survival after IMRT, with a prognostic value superior to that of T category.

A prospective trial of volumetric intensity-modulated arc therapy vs conventional intensity modulated radiation therapy in advanced head and neck cancer

AIM: To prospectively compare volumetric intensitymodulated arc therapy(VMAT) and conventional intensity-modulated radiation therapy(IMRT) in coverage of planning target volumes and avoidance of multiple organs at risk(OARs) in patients undergoing definitive chemoradiotherapy for advanced(stage Ⅲ or Ⅳ)squamous cell cancer of the head and neck. METHODS: Computed tomography scans of 20 patients with advanced tumors of the larynx, naso-, oroand hypopharynx were prospectively planned using IMRT(7 field) and VMAT using two arcs. Calculated doses to planning target volume(PTV) and OAR were compared between IMRT and VMAT plans. Dose-volume histograms(DVH) were utilized to obtain calculated doses to PTV and OAR, including parotids, cochlea,spinal cord, brainstem, anterior tongue, pituitary and brachial plexus. DVH's for all structures were compared between IMRT and VMAT plans. In addition the planswere compared for dose conformity and homogeneity. The final treatment plan was chosen by the treating radiation oncologist. RESULTS: VMAT was chosen as the ultimate plan in 18 of 20 patients(90%) because the plans were thought to be otherwise clinically equivalent. The IMRT plan was chosen in 2 of 20 patients because the VMAT plan produced concentric irradiation of the cord which was not overcome even with an avoidance structure. For all patients, VMAT plans had a lower number of average monitor units on average(MU = 542.85) than IMRT plans(MU = 1612.58)(P < 0.001). Using the conformity index(CI), defined as the 95% isodose volume divided by the PTV, the IMRT plan was more conformal with a lower conformity index(CI = 1.61) than the VMAT plan(CI = 2.00)(P = 0.003). Dose homogeneity, as measured by average standard deviation of dose distribution over the PTV, was not different with VMAT(1.45 Gy) or IMRT(1.73 Gy)(P = 0.069). There were no differences in sparing organs at risk.CONCLUSION: In this prospective study, VMAT plans were chosen over IMRT 90% of the time. Compared to IMRT, VMAT plans used only one third of the MUs, had shorter treatment times, and similar sparing of OAR. Overall, VMAT provided similar dose homogeneity but less conformity in PTV irradiation compared to IMRT. This difference in conformity was not clinically significant.

A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON CHINA

Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Yearbook of China landfalling tropical cyclones(hereafter CLTC) from 1949 to 2008,correlation between CLTC frequency/intensity and 500 hPa height field and sea surface temperature(SST) fields are investigated and employed for TC statistical prediction.A prediction model for yearly and monthly intensity and frequency of CLTC is established with binomial curve fitting by choosing the gridpoints with high correlation coefficients as composite factors.Good performance of the model in experiments shows that the model could be used in routine forecast.

Stimulated Emission of Gamma Photon from Ultrashort Pulse Intense Laser—Solid—Target Interaction

The efficient production of energetic γ photons is a significant physical process in the relativistic ultrashortpulse laser-plasma inducing photonuclear action. Based on the interaction of laser-solid-target, an analytical theory onstimulated γ photon emission from a hot electron firing the target-nucleus is developed by a relativistic full quantummethod. The emitting power or probability of γ photon in arbitrary space direction can be calculated for laser irradiatingsolid-target normally. It is valid only if the scatter-centre is immovable or its motion can be neglected compared withthat of the scattered electrons.

Key Optimization Issues for Renewable Energy Systems under Carbon-Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Targets:Current States and Perspectives

1 Introduction The United States,Japan,Canada,the European Union,and other developed countries and regions have all formulated climate strategies and pledged to achieve net-zero CO_(2) emissions by 2050.China,meanwhile,has announced through the“carbon-peaking and carbon neutrality targets”in September 2020 that it aims to achieve“peak carbon use”by 2030 and“carbon neutrality”by 2060[1].According to statistical data from the International Energy Agency(IEA),Fig.1 illustrates the carbon intensity of electricity generation in various regions in the Announced Pledge Scenario(APS)from 2010 to 2040[2].One can easily observe that each region aims to accomplish a sharp decrease in the carbon intensity of electricity generation after 2020.