In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one.Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries,and in order to enhance the...In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one.Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries,and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries,it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries.Concentrated on the manufacturing industry,which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China's export structure,this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade.First,by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model,it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China's manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China's manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax.Furthermore,with the application of the GTAP model,it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China's manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways,and then analyzes the influence on China's manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well.The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China's export price and export volume,and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China.However,the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff.In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China's energy-intensive industries,such as chemical rubber products,oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry,whose export would be reduced,the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest,which will decrease the paper industry's export ranging from 1.79%to 6.05%,whereas the other industries' export will increase.Anyhow,it will promote China's manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent.In addition,it will lead to a decrease in China's welfare,with a decrease between $2,134 billion and $8,347 billion.Finally,this paper provides information on international coordination,export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China's manufacturing industry.展开更多
Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying ...Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying drivers of trade liberalization.Parametric calibration and simulation methods based on the numeric general equilibrium model are employed to estimate the optimal tariff rates of countries with and without trade retaliation.Then,near-reality assumptions are added into the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the cross-border capital flow,multi-country assumption and trade cost,to simulate decreasing optimal tariff rates.The simulation results suggest that world economic development has increased the economic ties and interdependence among nations,making trade liberalization an endogenous optimal choice.The backlash against globalization in recent years is motivated by short-term factors,but will not persist in the long run since it goes against the law of economic growth and socio-economic development.展开更多
基金Humanities and Social Science Project of the Ministry of Education[grant number 12YJA790052]Scientific Research Projects in Liaoning Provincial Department of Education[grant number W2013081]Innovation Team Project of Dalian Maritime University[grant number 3132013329]
文摘In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one.Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries,and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries,it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries.Concentrated on the manufacturing industry,which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China's export structure,this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade.First,by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model,it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China's manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China's manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax.Furthermore,with the application of the GTAP model,it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China's manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways,and then analyzes the influence on China's manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well.The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China's export price and export volume,and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China.However,the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff.In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China's energy-intensive industries,such as chemical rubber products,oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry,whose export would be reduced,the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest,which will decrease the paper industry's export ranging from 1.79%to 6.05%,whereas the other industries' export will increase.Anyhow,it will promote China's manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent.In addition,it will lead to a decrease in China's welfare,with a decrease between $2,134 billion and $8,347 billion.Finally,this paper provides information on international coordination,export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China's manufacturing industry.
基金the sponsorship of the Post-funded Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research of the Chinese Ministry of Education (19JHQ062)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) General Program (71572048) for this paper
文摘Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying drivers of trade liberalization.Parametric calibration and simulation methods based on the numeric general equilibrium model are employed to estimate the optimal tariff rates of countries with and without trade retaliation.Then,near-reality assumptions are added into the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the cross-border capital flow,multi-country assumption and trade cost,to simulate decreasing optimal tariff rates.The simulation results suggest that world economic development has increased the economic ties and interdependence among nations,making trade liberalization an endogenous optimal choice.The backlash against globalization in recent years is motivated by short-term factors,but will not persist in the long run since it goes against the law of economic growth and socio-economic development.
