The author of the Taylor Rule has provided new evidence about the application of the Sandpile model to his rule. The same findings of the Sandpile model are described in the Taylor paper in agreement with the conclusi...The author of the Taylor Rule has provided new evidence about the application of the Sandpile model to his rule. The same findings of the Sandpile model are described in the Taylor paper in agreement with the conclusions of the Sandpile model. That is, that keeping interest rates too low for too long penalizes the economic recovery. On top of that the Sandpile also provides a metric for the severity of the crisis. The same law (Power Law) applies to the size and the duration of the crisis just modifying the order of the distribution paving thus a way for measuring the size of the crisis. According to the NBER data, the length is already determined for the US crisis, if the model holds on, we can also assess the severity.展开更多
Sandpile phenomena in dynamic systems in the vicinity of criticality always appeal to a sudden break of stability with avalanches of different sizes due to minor perturbations. We can view the intervention of the Cent...Sandpile phenomena in dynamic systems in the vicinity of criticality always appeal to a sudden break of stability with avalanches of different sizes due to minor perturbations. We can view the intervention of the Central Banks on the rate of interest as a perturbation of the economic system. It is an induced perturbation to a system that fare in vicinity of criticality according to the conditions of stability embedded in the equations of the neoclassical model. An alternative reading of the Taylor Rule is proposed in combination with the Sandpile paradigm to give an account of the economic crisis as an event like an avalanche, that can be triggered by a perturbation, as is the intervention of the Central Bank on the interest rate.展开更多
文摘The author of the Taylor Rule has provided new evidence about the application of the Sandpile model to his rule. The same findings of the Sandpile model are described in the Taylor paper in agreement with the conclusions of the Sandpile model. That is, that keeping interest rates too low for too long penalizes the economic recovery. On top of that the Sandpile also provides a metric for the severity of the crisis. The same law (Power Law) applies to the size and the duration of the crisis just modifying the order of the distribution paving thus a way for measuring the size of the crisis. According to the NBER data, the length is already determined for the US crisis, if the model holds on, we can also assess the severity.
文摘Sandpile phenomena in dynamic systems in the vicinity of criticality always appeal to a sudden break of stability with avalanches of different sizes due to minor perturbations. We can view the intervention of the Central Banks on the rate of interest as a perturbation of the economic system. It is an induced perturbation to a system that fare in vicinity of criticality according to the conditions of stability embedded in the equations of the neoclassical model. An alternative reading of the Taylor Rule is proposed in combination with the Sandpile paradigm to give an account of the economic crisis as an event like an avalanche, that can be triggered by a perturbation, as is the intervention of the Central Bank on the interest rate.
