Identifying and Managing Technical Risks in the Process of Innovative Drugs Development in China

Objective To identify technical risks in the process of innovative drug development,and to provide reference for technical risk management so as to reduce the uncertainties and improve the efficiency of research and development.Methods The initial risk index was investigated by literature research.Then,the Likert scale was used to design a questionnaire,and the experts’opinion was used to analyze the risk factors affecting the different stages of the development of innovative drugs in China.Results and Conclusion Based on the analysis of questionnaire,31 risk indicators of five key stages in the development of innovative drugs from drug discovery to marketing authorization were established.The key risk indicators constructed in this study can provide reference for technology-related risk management in the process of innovative drug development.

Investment risk analysis of China's wind power industry based on pre-assessment matrix

Wind energy is a clean and sustainable energy,and wind power does not rely on fossil fuels.So there is no fuel price risk,and it,of course,does not include the environmental costs,such as carbon emissions.Because of these unique advantages,wind power has gradually become an important part of the strategy of sustainable development in China.Now with the growing voices on global greenhouse gas emission reduction,and as a clean and efficient energy, wind power has huge potential in combating climate change,energy security pressures and the needs for energy.Wind power in China began to develop from the 1980s.In the first 20 years,the speed of development was slow;but since 2004,it has had an extremely rapid growth.This paper,in order to study the development mechanism of China's wind power industry,investigated and analyzed the status quo of wind power industry in China,and then found that(1) the development trend of wind power industry in China appears exponential growth;(2)China's installed capacity of wind power is still smaller than that os some other countries;(3)new subsidy policies bring developing opportunities to wind power industry in China;(4)the sectors of wind power industry are in unbalanced growing;(5)the owners of proposed wind farms are too optimistic though the built wind farm had many problems.In addition,by using the methodology of Game Theory,this paper has also constructed the matrix of pre-assessing risks of China's wind power industry to further discuss the potential risk factors within China's wind power industry as risk factors of wind farm construction,risk factors of production of wind turbines,risk factors of parts and components manufacturing industry under risk indicators like R&D,patents,the domestic policy,the international policy,the quality of products and the market regulation,in order to provide a scientific assessment and self-assessment tool for investors or implementers, and also to promote the further development of the wind power industry.

Socio-economic and energy-environmental impacts of technological change on China's agricultural development under the carbon neutrality strategy

Promoting agricultural modernisation through technological change is an important strategy for China.China's carbon neutrality strategy is leading to systemic socio-economic changes that could exacerbate the uncertainty of agricultural development.Therefore,applying a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,this study characterises the agricultural sector in detail,introducing endogenous technological change proxied by research and development(R&D)to assess the impact of different technological change scenarios on agricultural development under the carbon neutrality target.The results show that allocating carbon revenue for R&D inputs can mitigate the significant negative impact of achieving carbon neutrality on knowledge capital and production in agricultural sectors.Overall,using carbon revenue only for R&D input in crop sectors has the optimal effect on increasing the agricultural sectors'knowledge capital,improving crop production and profit,reducing crop external dependence and promoting the synergistic reduction of carbon and pollutant emissions.However,this scenario has the largest negative impact on macro-economics and household welfare.In contrast,allocating carbon revenue to promote technological change in broader non-energy sectors or both crops and non-energy sectors can effectively mitigate negative socio-economic impacts,but the positive impact on agricultural development is minimal.These findings provide practical insights for the rational use of carbon revenue to expand agricultural R&D investment and ensure balanced agricultural and economic development under the carbon neutrality target.

Technical Development and Safety Risk Analysis of Urban Underground Engineering

With the rapid development of China's urban construction, the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid expansion of population, the effective development and utilization of urban underground space have attracted great attention. Therefore, it is inevitable to study the comprehensive technology of deep underground engineering, and the research results will play an important guiding role in the design and construction of middle and shallow space of underground engineering in the future. This paper analyzes several common construction techniques and methods in the current construction process of urban underground engineering, summarizes the main construction methods of underground engineering, forecasts the development of urban underground engineering construction, and analyzes the safety risks of urban underground engineering construction.

International Telecommunication Union Standardization for Trust Provisioning in Information, Communication and Technology Infrastructure toward Achieving United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals

The advancement of the fourth industrial revolution has shaped the integration and interaction of different information, communication and technologies (ICTs) in the merging cyber, physical, and social infrastructures. The impact of ICT has accelerated the progress of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) and influenced the evolution of smart, sustainable, stable society development. Making the trustworthy information and communication technologies infrastructure widely available will promote the community innovation needed to stimulate domestic economics, provide decent work, and reduce inequalities. This article attempts to outline a big picture about the International Telecommunication Union (ITU)’s trust provisioning framework, including its motivation, current status, and application for achieving the UN SDGs by 2030. This article first describes the purpose of the UN SDGs and the evolution of the industrial revolution, then demonstrates the challenges of global risks affecting the fourth industrial revolution and the need for trustworthy ICT infrastructures. Subsequently, the article evaluates the ITU trust provisioning framework and assesses its applications in the future knowledge society, trust provisioning ecosystem, and cyber, physical, and social infrastructure toward achieving UN SDGs. Use cases are also presented in this article to show the effectiveness of the ITU trust provisioning framework on achieving UN SDGs.

数字金融的绿色效应:数字普惠金融与企业绿色技术创新

在新发展理念下,基于绿色导向与创新导向系统实现企业的绿色技术创新成为企业绿色转型与创新驱动发展的重要突破口。本文选取中国沪深A股上市公司数据,考察了数字普惠金融对企业绿色技术创新的具体影响效应及其机制。研究结果表明:数字普惠金融及其覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度均显著促进企业绿色技术创新,数字普惠金融主要通过提高企业创新投入、降低企业风险水平以及增强企业治理水平的三重机制促进企业绿色技术创新,数字普惠金融对企业绿色技术创新的促进效应在融资约束程度高与市场化程度低地区的企业中更为明显。因此,政府要深化金融供给侧结构性改革,推动数字普惠金融发展;企业要高度重视数字普惠金融的赋能效应,完善数字普惠金融助力企业绿色技术创新的协同机制,通过实施绿色技术创新战略实现企业绿色低碳转型升级。

ESG表现如何影响企业高质量发展? ——兼论媒体关注的调节作用

ESG表现是衡量企业非财务业绩的综合指标,为企业高质量发展注入内生动力。以2010—2021年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验了ESG表现对企业高质量发展的影响。研究发现:ESG表现的提升能够显著促进企业高质量发展,且通过替换变量、滞后一期、缩短年限进行稳健性检验后,结论依然成立;媒体关注对ESG表现与企业高质量发展之间的关系有正向调节作用,媒体关注度越高,ESG表现对企业高质量发展的促进作用越强;ESG表现主要通过推动企业绿色技术创新和降低企业经营风险促进企业高质量发展;企业ESG表现的促进作用在国有企业和重污染企业中更为显著。以上研究表明了ESG的积极效应和媒体关注的外部治理作用,为相关部门完善和推广ESG政策提供了一定的经验证据。

数字经济对农业低碳发展的影响与机制研究

“双碳”目标背景下发展低碳农业具有重要意义。基于2011—2020年中国31个省份的面板数据,运用熵权法分别测算了省际层面的数字经济和农业低碳发展水平,构建基准回归模型和中介效应模型探讨了数字经济对农业低碳发展的影响和作用机制。研究结果表明,数字经济显著促进农业低碳发展,该结论在考虑稳健性和内生性之后依然成立;机制检验结果表明,数字经济通过提高人力资本投入水平而促进农业低碳发展,而技术创新的中介效应则不显著。因此,应当加快数字经济与农业产业深度融合,提高农户农业低碳生产和消费意识,加大农村人力资本投入,促进农业低碳发展。

我国医药制造业研发投入状况及其影响的实证研究

目的 分析我国医药制造业研发投入现况,探索其对科技创新产出的影响,进而为卫生健康科技创新投入提出相关建议。方法 收集2009年1月至2020年12月我国内地31个省、自治区、直辖市(不含港、澳、台)医药制造业研究与试验发展(R&D)支出、R&D活动企业数、R&D人员数、R&D人员全时当量、年人均卫生费用、每千人卫生人员数、人均受教育年限和有效发明专利数等数据,运用描述性统计分析医药制造业研发投入的变化趋势、区域差距,建立面板数据计量经济学模型,分析医药制造业研发投入对有效发明专利数的影响作用。结果 2009—2020年,我国医药制造业R&D经费投入总量从154.5亿元上升到906.5亿元,总体增长486.7%,年均增长17.5%。面板计量经济学模型结果显示,创新企业个数、医药制造业研发投入和年人均卫生费用对有效发明专利数的影响有统计学意义,具体为:每增加1个R&D活动企业,有效发明专利增加3.884个;R&D投入每增加1万元,有效发明专利增加0.004个;年人均卫生费用每增加1元,有效发明专利增加0.081个。结论 2009—2020年,我国医药制造业研发投入对科技创新作用的推动作用具有积极意义,建议未来进一步加强对医药创新企业的支持,继续增加医药制造业研发投入,并促进健康服务业发展,以加快我国卫生健康科技创新。

政府科技投入、环境规制对经济高质量发展的影响

本文利用我国2009—2022年30个省际面板数据,构建了经济高质量发展的综合评价指标体系,并运用空间杜宾模型系统地研究政府科技投入和环境规制对经济高质量发展的影响。结果显示:首先,政府科技投入在促进经济高质量发展方面发挥着显著的正向作用,而且不同省域间存在显著的空间溢出效应。其次,环境规制对经济高质量发展呈现出“U”型影响关系,即初期有一定抑制效应,随后逐渐转变为促进效应。然而,政府科技投入和环境规制之间的相互作用对经济高质量发展产生正向影响,这表明政府科技投入能让环境规制的拐点提前到来。从空间效应来看,政府科技投入呈现出显著的空间溢出效应,且相邻地区的溢出效应更为显著;环境规制对经济高质量发展的空间溢出效应也得到证实,但溢出效应并不显著。

中国基础设施融资结构、投资效率与财政金融风险

基础设施是经济社会发展的重要支撑,构建现代化基础设施体系是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的坚实基础。在“十四五”及未来的很长时期,基础设施投融资仍将是我国需要持续关注的核心现实问题,融资结构、投资效率与财政金融风险则是把握中国基础设施投融资问题的三大关键抓手。本文在系统性梳理中国基础设施融资模式演变与融资结构现状、从多维度分析中国基础设施投资效率的基础上,对中国基础设施融资结构、投资效率与地方财政金融风险的内在关联性进行深入探究,揭示了投资效率是基础设施债务融资引致财政金融风险形成的关键因素。最后,本文结合研究结果与具体问题,从优化融资结构、提高投资效率、防范化解财政金融风险三个方面为中国基础设施投融资创新发展提出政策建议。

研发费用加计扣除会促进企业对外直接投资吗?——基于2011—2019年中国上市公司的实证检验

在减税降费激发企业市场活力的背景下,从微观企业视角考察税收优惠对跨国投资的驱动作用。利用2011—2019年中国上市公司数据,实证研究了研发费用加计扣除对企业对外直接投资的影响效应和作用路径。研究发现,研发费用加计扣除显著促进了企业对外直接投资。上述结论在考虑多种稳健性检验和内生性问题后仍然稳健。从作用机制来看,研发费用加计扣除主要通过提升技术创新和提高生产效率促进企业对外直接投资。研发费用加计扣除产生的对外直接投资促进效应存在产权性质和要素密集度的异质性,且因企业创新程度和投资规模的不同而存在差异。

中国气候风险领域的科技创新进展与展望

气候变暖背景下,高频高强高影响的极端天气气候事件对自然生态系统和经济社会系统产生了可观测的明显影响,识别和定量评估气候变化风险、提高适应气候变化能力是学界和决策者高度重视的研究方向。本文从自然生态系统、社会经济系统、气候风险管理等角度梳理了气候变化风险领域科技创新的发展历程,分析当前研究的不足,结合国家适应气候变化战略提出了未来创新发展方向。气候变化风险研究仍处于初步阶段,需要进一步完善气候变化风险评估体系,形成综合风险评估体系;加强影响机理和综合风险研究,充分认识构成风险的关键要素,明晰重点领域气候风险阈值,减少气候变化风险预估的不确定性,为因地制宜实施气候变化适应技术提供科学支撑。

我国西部地区科技创新投入与经济高质量发展时空演化与耦合协调分析

构建我国西部地区科技创新投入与经济高质量发展指标评价体系,运用熵值法测算出2004—2019年西部地区科技创新投入与经济高质量发展综合水平,引入标准差椭圆建立耦合协调性模型,分析西部地区11个省份时空演变、耦合协调发展情况及收敛趋势。研究发现:西部地区科技创新投入与经济高质量发展水平整体均呈现上升趋势;两者耦合协调度均值呈现上升趋势,但距离极度耦合协调阶段仍存在一定差距;西部地区内部发展不均衡,各省份发展水平和耦合协调度差异较为明显;西部地区科技创新投入与经济高质量发展耦合协调度存在σ收敛,西部地区整体和西北地区存在绝对β收敛。建议西部各省因地制宜,多维度支持科技创新投入;充分发挥中心城市与城市群辐射带动作用,推动西部地区科技创新与经济高质量发展。

数字化转型对企业高质量发展的影响——企业创新与风险承担视角

数字技术广泛应用对企业具有深远影响,在中国经济进入高质量发展阶段的背景下,进一步探讨数字化转型对企业高质量发展的影响具有重要意义。基于2010—2020年中国A股上市企业数据,以“两利四率”指标衡量企业发展质量,实证检验数字化转型对企业高质量发展的影响。结果显示,数字化转型能够显著促进企业高质量发展;与非国有控股企业相比,国有控股企业数字化转型对企业高质量发展的促进作用更为显著。机理分析发现,数字化转型可以通过创新机制与风险承担机制提升企业发展质量。异质性分析结果表明,在企业内部控制水平与市场化程度较低组、员工教育水平与机构投资者持股比例较高组,数字化转型对企业高质量发展的影响更为显著。结论可为促进企业数字化转型、赋能经济高质量发展提供理论参考。

Supplier Development under Supply Risk and Reputational Risk

This paper considers the supplier investment decision-making problem in a supply chain consisting of an original equipment manufacturer(OEM),a global supplier,and a local supplier.To reduce dependence on global suppliers and improve supply stability,we develop a differential game model to investigate the optimal investment decisions of the OEM towards the local supplier under different risk scenarios and the impact of different risks on the optimal decisions.The results show that investment efficiency and risks have a significant impact on OEM investment decisions.Specifically,when the OEM has higher investment efficiency,investing in the local supplier is profitable for the OEM;conversely,when the investment efficiency of the OEM is lower,it does not invest.In addition,an increase in the supply risk of the global supplier will lower the entry threshold for OEM investment,but an increase in the supply risk of the local supplier and the reputational risk of both will increase this threshold,meaning that only the OEM with significantly higher investment efficiency can profit.

政府资金与社会资本对高风险高回报项目投入机制研究——基于多国案例的分析

全球主要科技强国高度重视对高风险高回报类型技术,充分发挥政府资金的杠杆效应和引导作用,引导社会资本对优质项目或具有发展潜力的科技型中小企业实施投资,促使社会资金在科技创新中发挥更大的作用。按照高风险高回报项目技术实用化和产品化的不同可能性,各国政府资金引导和撬动社会资本的多元化投入机制各不相同,主要包括政府出资遴选培育颠覆性技术,成熟后引入社会资本跟投;政府出资遴选颠覆性技术,并实施股权投资,吸引社会资本的共同投资;以及政府资金联合社会资本共同实施项目的遴选和资助等。对比不同资金投入策略的优缺点和适用性,可以为中国相关科技管理决策提供借鉴。

技术创新、外商直接投资与绿色发展

基于2011—2020年全国30个省份的面板数据,使用空间杜宾模型、面板门槛模型考察了技术创新、外商直接投资与绿色发展的关系。研究结果表明:第一,技术创新促进了绿色发展且存在正向空间溢出效应,外商直接投资阻碍了绿色发展且存在负向空间溢出效应,这一结论在稳健性检验后仍然成立;第二,异质性分析发现,技术创新、外商直接投资对绿色发展的影响存在区域异质性;第三,技术创新与绿色发展呈现“U”形关系,在以经济发展水平作为门槛变量时,技术创新和外商直接投资对绿色发展有显著的门槛效应。上述研究完善了对绿色发展影响因素的研究,为充分发挥技术创新的正向空间溢出效应和规避外商直接投资的负向空间溢出效应,助推绿色发展提供实证参考。

新技术供应风险下预算约束制造商投资上游供应商的决策研究

近年来,高新技术行业竞争形势进一步分化和扩展,上游供应商和下游制造商通力合作共创产品价值成为新产品研发成功的关键。从上游供应商新技术研发不确定性引发的供应风险问题出发,研究预算约束下制造商投资供应商的资源最优分配策略。首先,构建上下游技术互补性下的研发成功率函数,分析技术成熟度、供应商单位创新努力成本以及下游制造商资金支持对上游新技术研发成功的影响。其次,构建投资、研发创新以及产品上市三个阶段的制造商和供应商博弈模型。研究表明,供应商新技术研发成功率总是随着资金支持数量的增加而提高,在单源投资模式下,制造商将全部预算资金投资给上游供应商以实现最大的新技术成功率;而在分散化投资策略下,制造商倾向于在较小预算下投资全部资金给研发效率更高的供应商,仅在较大预算时,才会将资金平均分配给两家供应商;比较单源投资和分散化投资策略发现,随着产品市场竞争加剧,分散化投资需要更多资金,即相同资金约束下,制造商更倾向于只投资一家供应商。由此得到政府支持制造业创新、银行等金融机构对制造商的信贷支持以及应用新技术辅助制造商投资决策等政策启示。