Developing strategic emerging industries is the major strategic initiative to accelerate the transformation of economic development while Technology Foresight is a very effective tool. This essay analyses the roles an...Developing strategic emerging industries is the major strategic initiative to accelerate the transformation of economic development while Technology Foresight is a very effective tool. This essay analyses the roles and limitations of Delphi method and Technology Roadmap in development of strategic emerging industries and offers suggestions on how to strengthen the effectiveness of Technology Foresight in it.展开更多
Developing strategic emerging industries is the major strategic initiative to accelerate the transformation of economic development while Technology Foresight is a very effective tool. This essay analyses the roles an...Developing strategic emerging industries is the major strategic initiative to accelerate the transformation of economic development while Technology Foresight is a very effective tool. This essay analyses the roles and limitations of Delphi method and Technology Roadmap in development of strategic emerging industries and offers suggestions on how to strengthen the effectiveness of Technology Foresight in it.展开更多
The increasing importance of technology foresight has simultaneously raised the significance of methods that determine crucial areas and technologies.However,qualitative and quantitative methods have shortcomings.The ...The increasing importance of technology foresight has simultaneously raised the significance of methods that determine crucial areas and technologies.However,qualitative and quantitative methods have shortcomings.The former involve high costs and many limitations,while the latter lack expert experience.Intelligent knowledge management emphasizes human–machine integration,which combines the advantages of expert experience and data mining.Thus,we proposed a new technology foresight method based on intelligent knowledge management.This method constructs a technological online platform to increase the number of participating experts.A secondary mining is performed on the results of patent analysis and bibliometrics.Thus,forward-looking,innovative,and disruptive areas and relevant experts must be discovered through the following comprehensive process:Topic acquisition→topic delivery→topic monitoring→topic guidance→topic reclamation→topic sorting→topic evolution→topic conforming→expert recommendation.展开更多
文摘Developing strategic emerging industries is the major strategic initiative to accelerate the transformation of economic development while Technology Foresight is a very effective tool. This essay analyses the roles and limitations of Delphi method and Technology Roadmap in development of strategic emerging industries and offers suggestions on how to strengthen the effectiveness of Technology Foresight in it.
文摘Developing strategic emerging industries is the major strategic initiative to accelerate the transformation of economic development while Technology Foresight is a very effective tool. This essay analyses the roles and limitations of Delphi method and Technology Roadmap in development of strategic emerging industries and offers suggestions on how to strengthen the effectiveness of Technology Foresight in it.
基金The work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71471169,91546201 and 71071151).
文摘The increasing importance of technology foresight has simultaneously raised the significance of methods that determine crucial areas and technologies.However,qualitative and quantitative methods have shortcomings.The former involve high costs and many limitations,while the latter lack expert experience.Intelligent knowledge management emphasizes human–machine integration,which combines the advantages of expert experience and data mining.Thus,we proposed a new technology foresight method based on intelligent knowledge management.This method constructs a technological online platform to increase the number of participating experts.A secondary mining is performed on the results of patent analysis and bibliometrics.Thus,forward-looking,innovative,and disruptive areas and relevant experts must be discovered through the following comprehensive process:Topic acquisition→topic delivery→topic monitoring→topic guidance→topic reclamation→topic sorting→topic evolution→topic conforming→expert recommendation.
