The Influence of Climate Change and Variability on Spatio-Temporal Rainfall and Temperature Distribution in Zanzibar

Climate change has resulted in serious social-economic ramifications and extremely catastrophic weather events in the world, Tanzania and Zanzibar in particular, with adaptation being the only option to reduce impacts. The study focuses on the influence of climate change and variability on spatio-temporal rainfall and temperature variability and distribution in Zanzibar. The station observation datasets of rainfall, Tmax and Tmin acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX) projected datasets from the Regional climate model HIRHAM5 under driving model ICHEC-EC-EARH, for the three periods of 1991-2020 used as baseline (HS), 2021-2050 as near future (NF) and 2051-2080 far future (FF), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5, were used. The long-term observed Tmax and Tmin were used to produce time series for observing the nature and trends, while the observed rainfall data was used for understanding wet and dry periods, trends and slope (at p ≤ 0.05) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Moreover, the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) under the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation techniques were used for mapping the three decades of 1991-2000 (hereafter D1), 2001-2010 (hereafter D2) and 2011-2020 (hereafter D3) to analyze periodical spatial rainfall distribution in Zanzibar. As for the projected datasets the Climate Data Operator Commands (CDO), python scripts and Grid analysis and Display System (GrADS) soft-wares were used to process and display the results of the projected datasets of rainfall, Tmax and Tmin for the HS, NF and FF, respectively. The results show that the observed Tmax increased by the rates of 0.035℃ yr-1 and 0.0169℃ yr-1, while the Tmin was increased by a rate of 0.064℃ yr-1 and 0.104℃ yr-1 for Unguja and Pemba, respectively. The temporal distribution of wetness and dryness indices showed a climate shift from near normal to moderate wet during 2005 at Zanzibar Airport, while normal to moderately dry conditions, were observed in Pemba at Matangatuani. The decadal rainfall variability and distributions revealed higher rainfall intensity with an increasing trend and good spatial distribution in D3 from March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The projected results for Tmax during MAM and OND depicted higher values ranging from 1.7℃ - 1.8℃ to 1.9℃ - 2.0℃ and 1.5℃ to 2.0℃ in FF compared to NF under both RCPs. Also, higher Tmin values of 1.12℃ - 1.16℃ was projected in FF for MAM and OND under both RCPs. Besides, the rainfall projection generally revealed increased rainfall intensity in the range of 0 - 25 mm for Pemba and declined rainfall in the range of 25 - 50 mm in Unguja under both RCPs in perspectives of both NF and FF. Conclusively the study has shown that the undergoing climate change has posed a significant impact on both rainfall and temperature spatial and temporal distributions in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba), with Unguja being projected to have higher rainfall deficits while increasing rainfall strengths in Pemba. Thus, the study calls for more studies and formulation of effective adaptation, strategies and resilience mechanisms to combat the projected climate change impacts especially in the agricultural sector, water and food security.

Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin, 1958-2007

The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid more and more attention. However, in China, the precipitation data are measured by weather stations （WS） of China Meteorological Administration and hydrological rain gauges （RG） of national and local hydrology bureau. The WS data usually have long record with fewer stations, while the RG data usually have short record with more stations. The consistency and correlation of these two data sets have not been well understood. In this paper, the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958-2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995-2004 in the Haihe River basin are examined and compared using linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Z test and F test methods. The results show that the annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed with minor difference in the mean value and variance. It is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by WS data sets. Using the extended precipitation data, the detailed spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as their temporal trends are calculated and mapped. The various distribution maps produced in the study show that for the whole basin the precipitation of 1958-2007 has been decreasing except for spring season. The decline trend is significant in summer, and this trend is stronger after the 1980s. The annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and changing trends are different in different regions and seasons. The precipitation is decreasing from south to north, from coastal zone to inland area.

Spatial-temporal variability of throughfall in a subtropical deciduous forest from the hilly regions of eastern China

Throughfall variability plays a crucial role in regulating hydrological and biogeochemical processes in forest ecosystems. However, throughfall variability and its potential influencing factors remain unclear in the subtropical deciduous forest because of its complex canopy and meteorological conditions. Here, the spatial variability and temporal stability of throughfall were investigated from October 2016 to December 2017 within a deciduous forest in the subtropical hilly regions of eastern China, and the effects of meteorological variables and distance from nearest tree trunk on throughfall variability were systematically evaluated. Throughfall variability during the leafed period was slightly higher than that during the leafless period inferred from the coefficient of variation of throughfall amounts(CVTF), with 13.2%-40.9% and 18.7%-31.9%, respectively. The multiple regression model analysis suggested that the controlling factors of throughfall variability were different in studied periods: Maximum 10-min rainfall intensity, wind speed and air temperature were the dominant influencing factors on throughfall variability during the leafed period, with the relative contribution ratio(RCR) of 25.9%, 18.7% and 8.9%, respectively. By contrast, throughfall variability was affected mainly by the mean rainfall intensity(RCR=40.8%) during the leafless period. The temporal stability plots and geostatistical analysis indicated that spatial patterns of throughfall were stable and similar among rainfall events. Our findings highlight the important role of various meteorological factors in throughfall variability and are expected to contribute to the accurate assessment of throughfall, soil water and runoff within the subtropical forests.

Temporal-Spatial Variability of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Rehabilitating Ecosystem

In global change research, changes of soil organic carbon (SOC) reservoirs in tropical and subtropical regions are still unknown. The temporal-spatial variability of SOC stocks was determined in a basin of over 579 km2 in subtropical China from 1981 to 2002. ArcGIS8.1 software was utilized for spatial analysis of semivariance, ordinary kriging (OK),and probability kriging (PK). Grid and hierarchical approaches were employed for the sampling scenario in 2002 with 106Global Position System (GPS) established spots sampled. Bulk topsoil samples (0-30 cm) were collected at three random sites on each spot. The SOC content for 1981 came from the SOC map of the Second National Soil Survey. Geostatistical results of the nugget to sill ratio (0.215-0.640) in the rehabilitating ecosystem indicated a moderate spatial dependence for SOC on this large scale. The range of SOC changed from 2.04 km in 1981 to 7.15 km in 2002. The mean topsoil SOC increased by 4.6% from 10.63 g kg-1 (1981) to 11.12 g kg-1 (2002). However, during this 21-year period 25.2%of the total basin area experienced a decrease in SOC. Also, the probability kriging results showed that the geometric mean probabilities of SOC ≤ 6.0 g kg-1, ≤ 11.0 g kg-1 and ＞ 15.0 g kg-1 were 0.188, 0.534 and 0.378, respectively in 2002, comparing to 0.234, 0.416 and 0.234 in that order in 1981, respectively. The SOC storage in the topsoil increased by 17.0% during this time with the main increase occurring in forests and cultivated land, which amounted to 82.5% and 17.0% of the total increase, respectively.

Delineation of Site-Specific Management Zones Based on Temporal and Spatial Variability of Soil Electrical Conductivity

A coastal saline field of 10.5 ha was selected as the study site and 122 bulk electrical conductivity (ECb) measurements were performed thrice in situ in the topsoil (0-20 cm) across the field using a hand held device to assess the spatial variability and temporal stability of the distribution of soil electrical conductivity (EC), to identify the management zones using cluster analysis based on the spatiotemporal variability of soil EC, and to evaluate the probable potential for site-specific management in coastal regions with conventional statistics and geostatistical techniques. The results indicated high coefficients of variation for topsoil salinity over all the three samplings. The spatial structure of the salinity variability remained relatively stable with time. Kriged contour maps, drawn on the basis of spatial variance structure of the data, showed the spatial trend of the salinity distribution and revealed areas of consistently high or consistently low salinity, while a temporal stability map indicated stable and unstable regions. On the basis of the spatiotemporal characteristics, cluster analysis divided the site into three potential management zones, each with different characteristics that could have an impact on the way the field was managed. On the basis of the clearly defined management zones it was concluded that coastal saline land could be managed in a site-specific way.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Water Vapor Content during 1961-2011 in Tianshan Mountains,China

Based on the climate factors data and surface vapor pressure(SVP) data of 44 weather stations in Tianshan Mountains during the years 1961-2011, this paper establishes a water vapor content(WVC) estimation model according to the relationship between monthly WVC of radiosonde and corresponding SVP and analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of WVC and their causes. The results show that the WVC is linearly and negatively related to the elevation and longitude(Vertical zonality and Longitude zonality), while it was not linearly related to the latitude. The westerly wind, geographical situation and sea level elevation composed complex surface conditions to influence the spatial distribution of WVC in the Tianshan Mountains. The Mann-Kendall(M-K) statistical test shows a significant increasing trend in the mean annual WVC in Tianshan Mountains during 1961-2011(P < 0.001), with a rate of 0.23 mm/decade, and indicates an abrupt turning point in 1985(P < 0.001). Correlation analysis shows that the WVC are significantly correlated to the temperature, especially during the winter, but the summer WVC are significantly correlated to the precipitation. In addition, the North Atlantic Oscillation Index(NAOI)and the Arctic Oscillation Index(AOI) are significantly correlated to the winter WVC in the Tianshan Mountains. As a new Microwave radiometric profilers(MWRPs) instrument, the MP-3000 A provides continuous, real-time and high temporal resolution atmospheric profiles up to 10 km. In order to monitor water vapor and atmosphere profiles in Tianshan Mountains, an MP-3000 A was established in Urumqi(43.8°N, 87.58°N) in May 2008. The results indicated that the MP-3000 A was applicable to this area, and the evolutionary process of water vapor and the WVC peak values of MP-3000 A were a strong signal for rainstorm and flood forecasts for Urumqi and the Tianshan Mountains.

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO

Utilizing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) and Tokyo-Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA RSMC TOKYO) best-track tropical cyclone(TC) data for the period 1951-2014,variations in spatial and temporal characteristics of Northwest Pacific TC activity for a global warming scenario are discussed.The results suggest that since the early 1960 s,there has been an overall decreasing trend in the frequency of occurrence,intensity,peak intensity,length of movement,and lifetime of TCs.However,global wanning has led to a linearly increasing trend in TC activity in eastern Asia,which indicates that Northwest Pacific TC activity decreases,but the frequency of landfalls and intensity are likely strengthened.Therefore,the threat of TCs towards eastern Asia is enhanced.The increase in TC activity in eastern Asia is likely the result of a strengthened Walker circulation due to an increasing temperature gradient between the northwest Pacific Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.The strengthening Walker circulation could increase the magnitude of the vertical wind shear,relative vorticity,and meridional wind shear of low-level easterlies near the equator in the tropical Northwest Pacific,which affects the spatial and temporal variations of TC activity in the Northwest Pacific.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of N, P and K Balances for Agroecosystems in China

Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium balances for agroecosystems in China from 1993 to 2001 were calculated at national and provincial levels using statistical data and related parameters, and their spatial and temporal variabilities were analyzed with GIS to estimate the potential impacts of nutrient N, P and K surpluses or deficits to soil, water and air. At the national scale, the N and P balances from 1993 to 2001 showed a surplus, with the nitrogen surplus remaining relatively stable from 1997—2001. Although during this period the P surplus pattern was similar to N, it had smaller values and kept increasing as the use of phosphate fertilizer increased year by year. However, K was deficient from 1993 to 2001 even though from 1999 to 2001 the K deficit decreased. The spatial analysis revealed higher N surpluses in the more developed southeastern provinces and lowest in the western and northern provinces where there was less chemical fertilizer input. The serious K deficit mainly occurred in Shanghai and Beijing municipalities, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Hubei provinces, and Xinjiang autonomous regions. For the years 1992, 1996 and 2001, N surpluses and K deficits had significant positive spatial correlations with per capita gross domestic product (GDP), per capita gross industrial output value, and per capita net income of rural households. This showed that the level of economic development played an important role on nutrient balances in the agroecosystems.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Soil Moisture

The characterization of temporal and spatial variability of soil moisture is highly relevant for understanding the many hydrological processes, to model the processes better and to apply them to conservation planning. Considerable variability in space and time coupled with inadequate and uneven distribution of irrigation water results in uneven yield in an area Spatial and temporal variability highly affect the heterogeneity of soil water, solute transport and leaching of chemicals to ground water. Spatial variability of soil moisture helps in mapping soil properties across the field and variability in irrigation requirement. While the temporal variability of water content and infiltration helps in irrigation management, the temporal correlation structure helps in forecasting next irrigation. Kriging is a geostatistical technique for interpolation that takes into account the spatial auto-correlation of a variable to produce the best linear unbiased estimate. The same has been used for data interpolation for the C. T. A. E. Udaipur India. These interpolated data were plotted against distance to show variability between the krigged value and observed value. The range of krigged soil moisture values was smaller than the observed one. The goal of this study was to map layer-wise soil moisture up to 60 cm depth which is useful for irrigation planning.

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Runoff Generation Areas in a Small Agricultural Watershed in Southern Ontario

The identification of runoff generating areas (RGAs) within a watershed is a difficult task because of their temporal and spatial behavior. A watershed was selected to investigate the RGAs to determine the factors affecting spatio-temporally in southern Ontario. The watershed was divided into 8 fields having a Wireless System Network (WSN) and a V-notch weir for flow and soil moisture measurements. The results show that surface runoff is generated by the infiltration excess mechanism in summer and fall, and the saturation excess mechanism in spring. The statistical analysis suggested that the amount of rainfall and rainfall intensity for summer (R2 = 0.63, 0.82) and fall (R2 = 0.74, 0.80), respectively, affected the RGAs. The analysis showed that 15% area generated 85% of surface runoff in summer, 100% of runoff in fall, and 40% of runoff in spring. The methodology developed has potential for identifying RGAs for protecting Ontario’s water resources.

Empirical-Statistical Methodology and Methods for Modeling and Forecasting of Climate Variability of Different Temporal Scales

Main problem of modern climatology is to assess the present as well as future climate change, For this aim two approaches are used: physic-mathematic modeling on the basis of GCMs and palaeoclimatic analogues. The third approach is based on the empirical-statistical methodology and is developed in this paper. This approach allows to decide two main problems: to give a real assessment of climate changes by observed data for climate monitoring and extrapolation of obtained climate tendencies to the nearest future (10-15 years) and give the empirical basis for further development of physic-mathematical models. The basic theory and methodology of empirical-statistic approach have been developed as well as a common model for description of space-time climate variations taking into account the processes of different time scales. The way of decreasing of the present and future uncertainty is suggested as the extraction of long-term climate changes components in the particular time series and spatial generalization of the same climate tendencies in the obtained homogeneous regions. Algorithm and methods for realization of empirical-statistic methodology have been developed along with methods for generalization of intraannual fluctuations, methods for extraction of homogeneous components of different time scales (interannual, decadal, century), methodology and methods for spatial generalization and modeling, methods for extrapolation on the basis of two main kinds of time models: stochastic and deterministic-stochastic. Some applications of developed methodology and methods are given for the longest time series of temperature and precipitation over the world and for spatial generalization over the European area.

Spatial-Temporal Variations in January Precipitation over the Period of 1950-2000 in Pakistan and Possible Links with Global Teleconnections: Geographical Perspective

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) was performed to investigate spatial variation in January precipitation over Pakistan using ground observed mean monthly precipitation data from 1950-2000 with a combination of gridded reanalysis data of sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height. The leading EOF mode captures 37.51% of the total variance and the spatial-temporal variability of January precipitation was consistent in the study area. The temporal changes explicate non-periodic interannual variability and some tacit interdecadal variation. The anomalous condition is more prominent along the western bordering mountains and northern high mountainous region than any other region of Pakistan. Based on results the study reveals spatial-temporal variation in January precipitation and possible links with global teleconnections located both in the proximity as well as in the remote areas from the study locus.

Spatial and temporal patterns of solar radiation in China from 1957 to 2016

Solar energy is clean and renewable energy that plays an important role in mitigating impacts of environmental problems and climate change.Solar radiation received on the earth's surface determines the efficiency of power generation and the location and layout of photovoltaic arrays.In this paper,the average daily solar radiation of 77 stations in China from 1957 to 2016 was analyzed in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics.The results indicate that Xinjiang,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,North,Central and East China show a decreasing trend with an average of 2.54×10^(−3)MJ/(m^(2)⋅10a),while Northwest and Northeast China are basically stabilized,and Southwest China shows a clear increasing trend with an average increase of 1.79×10^(−3)MJ/(m^(2)⋅10a).The average daily solar radiation in summer and winter in China from 1957 to 2016 was 18.74 MJ/m^(2)and 9.09 MJ/m^(2),respectively.Except for spring in Northwest,East and South China,and summer in northeast China,the average daily solar radiation in all other regions show a downward trend.A critical point for the change is 1983 in the average daily solar radiation.Meanwhile,large-scale(25−30 years)oscillation changes are more obvious,while small-scale(5−10 years)changes are stable and have a global scope.The average daily solar radiation shows an increasing-decreasing gradient from west to east,which can be divided into three areas west of 80°E,80°E−100°E and east of 100°E.The average daily solar radiation was 2.07 MJ/m^(2)in the 1980s,and that in 1990s lower than that in the 1960s and the 1970s.The average daily solar radiation has rebounded in the 21st century,but overall it is still lower than the average daily solar radiation from 1957 to 2016(13.87 MJ/m^(2)).

Fast spreading of surface ozone in both temporal and spatial scale in Pearl River Delta

Surface ozone(O_(3))is a major air pollutant and draw increasing attention in the Pearl River Delta(PRD),China.Here,we characterize the spatial-temporal variability of ozone based on a dataset obtained from 57 national monitoring sites during 2013-2019.Our results show that:(1)the seasonal difference of ozone distribution in the inland and coastal areas was significant,which was largely affected by the wind pattern reversals related to the East Asian monsoon,and local ozone production and destruction;(2)the daily maximum 8hr average(MDA8 O_(3))showed an overall upward trend by 1.11 ppbv/year.While the trends in the nine cities varied differently by ranging from-0.12 to 2.51 ppbv/year.The hot spots of ozone were spreading to southwestern areas from the central areas since 2016.And ozone is becoming a year-round air pollution problem with the pollution season extending to winter and spring in PRD region.(3)at the central and southwestern PRD cities,the percentage of exceedance days from the continuous type(defined as≥3 days)was increasing.Furthermore,the ozone concentration of continuous type was much higher than that of scattered exceedance type(<3 days).In addition,although the occurrence of continuous type starts to decline since2017,the total number of exceedance days during the continuous type is increasing.These results indicate that it is more difficult to eliminate the continuous exceedance than the scatter pollution days and highlight the great challenge in mitigation of O_(3)pollution in these cities.

Near-Field Variability of Residential Woodsmoke Concentrations

In many regions, wood combustion is a significant source of wintertime aerosols. However, since wood combustion sources are interspersed within neighborhoods, near-field concentration variability has the potential to cause large variations in the exposure levels between residents over a relatively small area. This field study compared filter samples and aethalometer measurements of black carbon concentration within a 1 km2 study region with no significant aerosol sources except wood combustion. Sampling occurred on 15 nights over two winter seasons in a small California coastal town. Even over the small distances in the study area, large spatial and temporal variations were observed. Measured black carbon concentrations varied by as much as a factor of 10 over a 12-hour night-time period. The spatial variability was non-random, with the highest location in the study area experiencing 4 times the average concentration within the neighborhood, when averaged over all sample periods. The results of this study indicate that within neighborhoods with residential wood combustion sources using an average concentration for a region to predict exposure may significantly undervalue the exposure of some residents and overvalue the exposure for others.

Do physicochemical variables regulate the distribution of zooplankton communities in reservoirs dominated by filter-feeding carp?

The temporal and spatial distributions of zooplankton communities in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Xin'anjiang Reservoir,Zhejiang,China,were investigated monthly,between 2009 and 2010.Silver carp(Hypophthalmichthys molitrix)and bighead carp(Aristichthys nobilis)dominated the pelagic fi sh community of this large,deep reservoir.Cladocerans were distributed evenly throughout the reservoir.Rotifers were mainly found in the upper reaches,while copepods tended to assemble in the lower reaches.The Pearson correlation analysis and stepwise multiple regression were used to identify the major physicochemical gradients infl uencing community variations.Zooplankton community distributions were infl uenced by water temperature,dissolved oxygen,phosphorus,nitrogen,and silicon.Excess nutrients,in particular silicon,stimulated rotifer growth.Based on these fi ndings,it is possible to use rotifer density as a bioindicator of eutrophic status in deep reservoir ecosystems.

Temporal Stability of Sward Dry Matter and Nitrogen Yield Patterns in a Temperate Grassland

The objectives of the present study were to examine the spatial patterns of sward dry matter (DM) and nitrogen (N) yields in a grass silage field at first, second, and third cuts over a 3-year period; quantify their temporal stabilities with temporal stability maps; and assess the potential for site-specific management in each pasture-growing period using classified management maps. At cut 1, the spatial patterns of DM and N yields proved to be well defined and temporally stable and were likely to be due to differences in the net N mineralization rates across the field during spring. In contrast, at cut 2, the patterns of DM production were patchy and temporally unstable. It was concluded that, in principle, a simple site-specific approach to N fertilization would be possible in this field during spring at cut 1. At later harvests, the rationale for a site-specific approach to fertilizer management was less clear with logistics appearing to be more complex and less feasible.

南水北调中线冬季冰情变化特征及输水能力提升策略研究

南水北调中线工程冰期输水能力受限已成为制约工程安全运行和社会效益发挥的巨大障碍。认识和辨析通水以来中线干渠冬季水温冰情演变规律及影响机理,是中线干渠冬季输水能力提升亟需解决的关键问题。本文基于2011—2023年中线干渠连续12个冬季的气象、水力、冰情等原型观测资料,分析了中线干渠水温冰情时空分布本底和特征规律,明晰了影响中线干渠冰凌生消的关键因素,针对性提出了冬季输水能力提升的相关应对策略。分析表明:通水以来冰情发生的范围和时间相比理论预想偏小、偏短,冰凌影响区为七里河倒虹吸至北拒马河暗渠段,冰塞风险区为滹沱河倒虹吸至北拒马河暗渠段,多年平均冰厚15 cm,历史极端冰塞厚2.9 m,冰凌壅水最高值0.73 m;干渠冬季水温由南向北递减,依次出现岸冰、流冰和冰盖,日均气温转负后相应的断面平均测量水温在2.5、1.0和0.25℃左右,且沿程水温下降速率与流量和气温呈负相关,即增大输水流量可减缓水温下降速度;影响冰凌生消的关键因素是气温、流量、太阳辐射和风速,典型年如2016年的严重冰情与1月低累计负积温、大输水流量和短时寒潮叠加有关,漕河等渡槽失温快产冰量大与风速密切相关。基于上述分析,未来可考虑结合气象、水情、冰情实时监测和智能预警预报,建立水温-水量-水力协同调控和动态调度技术体系,重点从缩短冰期输水时长、降低冰情影响范围、优化关键控制指标和挖潜渠道防冰塞性能等多方面全面提升南水北调中线工程冬季输水能力。

岩溶区土壤肥力的时空变异及影响因素--以云南小江流域为例

运用地统计学,结合GIS研究了云南小江典型岩溶流域1982到2005年表层(0～20cm)土壤肥力包括pH、有机质、全氮、全磷、全钾5个指标的时空变异规律及影响因素。20a来,流域土壤肥力发生显著变化,pH值、全钾含量升高,而有机质、全氮、全磷含量降低;同时土壤肥力的空间变异显著:各指标的块金方差与基台值的比值、自相关阈值明显增大;pH值在流域东部和东南部升高,而在中部降低;有机质含量在流域东部和东南部降低,而东北部、中部含量增加;全氮含量在东部降低,中部增加;全磷含量普遍降低,东部地区下降幅度最大;全钾含量在东部、西南地区升高。土壤肥力的时、空变化与地质、地貌以及土地利用密切相关。

1961-2013年东北地区夏季极端降水事件变化特征

利用东北地区84个气象站1961-2013年逐日降水资料,通过线性回归、气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、相关分析和经验模态分解(EMD)等方法,分析了东北地区夏季6个极端降水指数(连续干旱日数(CDD)、连续湿润日数(CWD)、强降水量(R95)、极端降水量(R99)、最大1 d降水量(RX1day)和最大5 d降水量(RX5day))的变化规律。结果表明:近53 a夏季CDD在东北大部都呈增加趋势,气候倾向率达到0.45 d·(10 a)^(-1),而CWD在东北南部地区表现出一定的减少趋势。进一步研究发现,CDD对东北地区夏季旱年异常敏感,而R95、R99和RX5day与东北地区旱涝年都有很好的对应关系。除CDD和CWD外,其它4种极端降水指数与夏季总降水的变化存在很好的一致性,即各极端降水指数的增加(减少)能够反映出降水量的增加(减少)。在近53 a的时间尺度上,除R95和R99外,各极端降水指数都存在显著的准3 a振荡周期。此外,RX1day和RX5day的17 a周期也较为明显,CDD、R95、R99、RX5day还存在30~32 a的长周期变化。