Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus (VDPV) in Democratic Republic of Congo from 2018 to 2023

Background: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been facing outbreaks of VDPV since 2017. These wild poliovirus variants are responsible for poliomyelitis, which is in the process of eradication.. In the following lines, we try to show the evolution of VDPV cases across the country in order to understand their chronological dynamics and seasonal influence. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of of VDPV notified in the DRC from 2018 to 2023. Maps of the spatial dynamics of VDPV cases were produced from attack rates with QGIS® (3.22.8). As for temporal dynamics, time series were decomposed and presented in the form of graphs showing the chronological evolution of VDPV cases and their seasonal trend, using R.4.0 software package. Results: A total of 1196 Cases of VDPV types 1, 2 and 3 were recorded in the biological confirmation databases of the INRB and the Expanded Program of Immunization during the study period across25 provinces. The eastern part of the country reporting the most cases. The general trend is upwards, with a peak in 2022 of 527 cases, whereas in 2021 there was a notable drop of 31 cases. Analysis of the temporal breakdown suggests a seasonal pattern, with peaks between the months of September and December, considered being rainy periods in some provinces. Conclusion: During the 6 years of our study (2018 - 2023) almost all the Health Zones were hit by VDPV epidemics. The eastern part was the most impacted. The seasonal component is well marked suggesting a rise in detection in the rainy season and during pivotal periods of climate change.

Temporal and Spatial Variations in the Climate Controls of Vegetation Dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau during 1982–2011

The ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau is highly susceptible to climate change. Currently, there is little discussion on the temporal changes in the link between climatic factors and vegetation dynamics in this region under the changing climate.By employing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, the Climatic Research Unit temperature and precipitation data,and the in-situ meteorological observations, we report the temporal and spatial variations in the relationships between the vegetation dynamics and climatic factors on the Plateau over the past three decades. The results show that from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern part of the Plateau appears to show a closer relationship with precipitation prior to the growing season than that of temperature. From the mid-1990s, the temperature rise seems to be the key climatic factor correlating vegetation growth in this region. The effects of increasing temperature on vegetation are spatially variable across the Plateau: it has negative impacts on vegetation activity in the southwestern and northeastern part of the Plateau, and positive impacts in the central and southeastern Plateau. In the context of global warming, the changing climate condition(increasing precipitation and significant rising temperature) might be the potential contributor to the shift in the climatic controls on vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern Plateau.

The spatial-temporal dynamic characteristics of the marsh in the Sanjiang Plain

Using the methods of combining landscape ecology with GIS spatial analysis, this paper analyses the dynamics of the marsh landscape structure of the Sanjiang Plain in the past 20 years, furthermore, taking Fujin County, located in the north of the plain, as an example, analyzes the conversion between marsh and other land use types. It is shown that the marsh in the Sanjiang Plain decreased greatly in the past 20 years, but the trend has begun to reverse. The marsh area decreased by 51.33% from 1980 to 1996, whereas it decreased by 4.19% from 1996 to 2000. The fragmentation of the marsh increased; the number of the patches increased by 326 from 1986 to 1996, whereas it only increased by 18 patches from 1996 to 2000. It is obvious that the speed of patches number diminished and the marsh fragmentation decreased, which shows that the reclamation of the marsh converted from the fragmentation to the brim in a large area of the marsh. The reclaimed marsh has mainly converted to paddy field and dry land. Large-scale reclamation in the Sanjiang Plain influences its natural environment directly: the climate of the region turns from cold and wet to warm and dry, which makes the marsh both in the low-temperature northern part and in the deeply stagnant eastern part suitable for further agricultural development.

A Spatial-Temporal Network Perspective for the Propagation Dynamics of Air Traffic Delays

Intractable delays occur in air traffic due to the imbalance between ever-increasing air traffic demand and limited airspace capacity.As air traffic is associated with complex air transport systems,delays can be magnified and propagated throughout these systems,resulting in the emergent behavior known as delay propagation.An understanding of delay propagation dynamics is pertinent to modern air traffic management.In this work,we present a complex network perspective of delay propagation dynamics.Specifically,we model air traffic scenarios using spatial–temporal networks with airports as the nodes.To establish the dynamic edges between the nodes,we develop a delay propagation method and apply it to a given set of air traffic schedules.Based on the constructed spatial-temporal networks,we suggest three metrics-magnitude,severity,and speed-to gauge delay propagation dynamics.To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,we carry out case studies on domestic flights in the Southeastern Asia region(SAR)and the United States.Experiments demonstrate that the propagation magnitude in terms of the number of flights affected by delay propagation and the amount of propagated delays for the US traffic are respectively five and ten times those of the SAR.Experiments further reveal that the propagation speed for US traffic is eight times faster than that of the SAR.The delay propagation dynamics reveal that about six hub airports in the SAR have significant propagated delays,while the situation in the United States is considerably worse,with a corresponding number of around 16.This work provides a potent tool for tracing the evolution of air traffic delays.

Spatial-temporal Dynamics and Driving Forces of Land Development Intensity in the Western China from 2000 to 2015

The change in land development intensity is an important perspective to reflect the variation in regional social and economic development and spatial differentiation.In this paper,spatial statistical analysis,Ordinary Least Squares(OLS),and Geographically weighted regression(GWR)methods are used to systematically analyse the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving forces of land development intensity for 131 spatial units in the western China from 2000 to 2015.The findings of the study are as follows:1)The land development intensity in the western China has been increasing rapidly.From 2000 to 2015,land development intensity increased by 3.4 times on average.2)The hotspot areas have shifted from central Inner Mongolia,northern Shaanxi and the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi to the Guanzhong Plain and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.The areas of cold spots were mainly concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Yunnan,and Xinjiang.3)Investment intensity and the natural environment have always been the main drivers of land development intensity in the western China.Investment played a powerful role in promoting land development intensity,while the natural and ecological environment distinctly constrained such development.The effect of the economic factors on land development intensity in the western China has changed,which is reflected in the driving factor of construction land development shifting from economic growth in 2000 to economic structure,especially industrial structure,in 2015.

Long-term temporal-spatial dynamics of marine coastal water quality in the Tolo Harbor,Hong Kong,China

The long-term temporal and spatial dynamics of marine coastal water quality in Tolo Harbor, Hong Kong were explored. The Harbor is divided into three zones represented as Harbor, Buffer, and Channel Subzones. The time range for the study covers the period from the 1970s to the 1990s. The selected indicators for the comprehensive assessment of water quality consist of physical, chemical and biological aspects, including suspended solids(SS), Secchi disk depth(SD), 5-day biochemical oxygen demand(BOD\-5), total nitrogen(TN), total phosphorus(TP), faecal coliform, chlorophyll-a(Chl-a), and the number of red tide occurrences. The results indicated the presence of obvious temporal and spatial trends with regard to changes in water quality. Spatially, water quality in the Channel Subzone is the best, while that in the Harbor Subzone is the worst. On a temporal basis, the average trend from bad to good was 1980s>1990s>1970s as indicated by most of the selected water quality indicators. Water quality during the late 1980s reached its worst level with the lowest SD, the highest BOD\-5, TN, TP, Chl-a concentrations, and the number of red tide occurrences. These long-term temporal-spatial water quality trends were also found in other studies of the Tolo Harbor. The large quantity of pollutants produced as a result of increasing population, industrial and commercial actives, and urbanization and industrialization trends in both Shatin and Tai Po seem to be primarily responsible for the changes in marine coastal water quality.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Surface Water in China from the 1980s to 2015 Based on Remote Sensing Monitoring

Climate change and human interference play significant roles on dynamic of water body abundance,and drive related hydrological,biochemical and social/economic processes.Documenting and monitoring surface water area with high resolution multi-temporal satellite imagery provide new perspective to evaluate the dynamics of surface water area,especially in continental and global scale.In this study,based on the Landsat images from 1980 s to 2015,we surveyed the spatial and temporal variation of surface water area,including rivers,lakes and reservoirs,in 10-yr temporal slice across China.Furthermore,the driving forces of the variation has been identified to reveal the interaction of water bodies and the changing environment.The results show that,the water surface area expanded over all three decades with strong spatial and temporal difference,despite the drier and warmer climate background;although lakes comprise the largest portion of the surface water area,the highest contributor of surface water expansion was new constructed reservoir located in the densely populated region;climatic parameters alteration,like precipitation and temperature,resulted in the water surface expansion in the northwestern basin by growing water input linked with rain and glacier melting;in the rest part of China,rise of water surface area was predominately attributed to human relocation of water resource,which yielded more new water storage area than the disappeared water body caused by less precipitation and stronger evapotranspiration.The conclusions highlight the integrative water resource management,especially in water conservation and restoration.

Three-stage approach for dynamic traffic temporal-spatial model

In order to describe the characteristics of dynamic traffic flow and improve the robustness of its multiple applications, a dynamic traffic temporal-spatial model(DTTS) is established. With consideration of the temporal correlation, spatial correlation and historical correlation, a basic DTTS model is built. And a three-stage approach is put forward for the simplification and calibration of the basic DTTS model. Through critical sections pre-selection and critical time pre-selection, the first stage reduces the variable number of the basic DTTS model. In the second stage, variable coefficient calibration is implemented based on basic model simplification and stepwise regression analysis. Aimed at dynamic noise estimation, the characteristics of noise are summarized and an extreme learning machine is presented in the third stage. A case study based on a real-world road network in Beijing, China, is carried out to test the efficiency and applicability of proposed DTTS model and the three-stage approach.

Electron acceleration in interaction of magnetic islands in large temporal-spatial turbulent magnetic reconnection

A new combined Fermi, betatron, and turbulent electron acceleration mechanism is proposed in interaction of magnetic islands during turbulent magnetic reconnection evolution in explosive astrophysical phenomena at large temporal-spatial scale(LTSTMR), the ratio of observed current sheets thickness to electron characteristic length, electron Larmor radius for low-β and electron inertial length for high-β, is on the order of 10^(10)–10^(11); the ratio of observed evolution time to electron gyroperiod is on the order of 10~7–10~9).The original combined acceleration model is known to be one of greatest importance in the interaction of magnetic islands; it assumes that the continuous kinetic-dynamic temporal-spatial scale evolution occurs as two separate independent processes.In this paper, we reconsider the combined acceleration mechanism by introducing a kinetic-dynamic-hydro full-coupled model instead of the original micro-kinetic or macro-dynamic model.We investigate different acceleration mechanisms in the vicinity of neutral points in magnetic islands evolution, from the stage of shrink and breakup into smaller islands(kinetic scale), to the stage of coalescence and growth into larger islands(dynamic scale), to the stages of constant and quasi-constant(contracting-expanding) islands(hydro scale).As a result, we give for the first time the acceleration efficiencies of different types of acceleration mechanisms in magnetic islands' interactions in solar atmosphere LTSTMR activities(pico-, 10^(–2)–10~5 m; nano-, 10~5–10~6 m; micro-, 10~6–10~7 m; macro-, 10~7–10~8 m; large-,10~8–10~9 m).

Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Soil Organic Matter in the Mixed Plantations of Alder and Cypress in the Hilly Areas of Central Sichuan Basin

The investigation was conducted on the spatial and temporal distributions of soil organic mater （SOM） in the mixed plantations of alder （Aluns crernastogyne） and cypress （Cupressus funebris ） （MPAC）, which distributed in the hilly areas of central Sichuan Basin （HACSB）. The results show that： （1） the spatial distribution of SOM among different sites at the same age are not significant before 15-year-old, but significant at 20-year-old, and not significant again after 25-year-old; （2） the SOM contents in 0-15 cm and 15-30 cm layers increase sharply from 10- to 15-year-old, and decline gradually from 15- to 30- year-old; the SOM contents of the 30-year-old PCP were 80. 38% and 78.42% higher than that of the 10-year-old, but 29.16% and 53.37% lower than that of 15-year-old in the 0-15 cm and 15-30 cm layers, respectively. The decrease of SOM contents would lead to the degradation of soil fertility and the decline of forest productivity.

Dynamic Characteristics and Driving Forces of Wetland Landscapes in Northeast China

Dynamic characteristics and spatial-temporal distribution patterns of wetland landscapes in northeast China from 1986 to 2000 were quantitatively analyzed and studied by applying theories and methods of landscape ecology,Land Change Science,remote sensing and GIS techniques.Through analyzing the dynamic spatial-temporal change degree,direction and pattern of wetland within the study area,as well as the characteristics of landscape pattern change and landscape transformation,this study got the following results:area and patch amount of wetland in northeast China showed a decreasing trend as a whole in the past 15 years.In terms of dynamic landscape changes,although the annual decrease rate of the last 5 years was 28 times more than that of the first 10 years,the first 10 years was a period with relatively more drastic patch changes of wetland landscapes in northeast China.By reviewing the overall changes of wetland landscapes in northeast China,the following characteristics were summarized:expanding in certain periods but decreasing in the overall trend,shrinking in parts but expanding from boundaries,showing high fragmentation and so on.Study on its driving forces showed that a unique spatial pattern of wetland landscapes was formed with the dual intervention of natural and artificial factors.

Dynamics of Soil Erosion in Xingguo County, China, Determined Using Remote Sensing and GIS

The spatial and temporal dynamics of soil erosion in Xingguo County, Jiangxi Province, China were studied using multi-period remote sensing images and GIS. The results indicated that the soil erosion status of the region has been improving, particularly since the 1980s, with the erosion rate showing an evident decline over the past 30 years. The improvement showed not only in the decline of eroded soil area, but also with the reduction in the extent of erosion. The extent of erosion mainly changed by one level, and the change primarily occurred with the severely or moderately eroded soil types. However, in general, soil erosion was still an overriding problem in the region with some areas becoming more serious, especially those with large quantities of granite.

The impact of dynamic change of cropland on grain production in Jilin

The quantity and quality changes of cropland in Jilin province are analyzed by combining the statistics from 1949 to 1999 and land-use maps interpreted from TM images in 1986 and in 2000. In general, the decreasing trend of the cropland in Jilin province was derived from the statistic data in 1949-1999. While since 1983, the cropland area has increased slightly, because of the conversion from other land-use types to cropland. It is showed that the net increase of cropland was about 43.40×10 4 ha. While the quality change of the cropland can be seen from that mainly caused by the conversion from forestland, grassland to cropland and the change mainly took place in the west, where it is ecologically fragile. According to the spatial distribution model, the centroids' move of the cropland and the grain production are calculated, whose directions are not consistent. The impact of the dynamic change of the cropland on food security is further analyzed.

A temporal-spatial background modeling of dynamic scenes

Moving object detection in dynamic scenes is a basic task in a surveillance system for sensor data collection. In this paper, we present a powerful back- ground subtraction algorithm called Gaussian-kernel density estimator （G-KDE） that improves the accuracy and reduces the computational load. The main innovation is that we divide the changes of background into continuous and stable changes to deal with dynamic scenes and moving objects that first merge into the background, and separately model background using both KDE model and Gaussian models. To get a temporal- spatial background model, the sample selection is based on the concept of region average at the update stage. In the detection stage, neighborhood information content （NIC） is implemented which suppresses the false detection due to small and un-modeled movements in the scene. The experimental results which are generated on three separate sequences indicate that this method is well suited for precise detection of moving objects in complex scenes and it can be efficiently used in various detection systems.

基于全要素融合的区域自然资源要素配置水平评价——以苏南地区为例

本文基于苏南地区自然资源特征,以土地资源、水资源、森林资源、湿地资源等自然资源基本要素为切入点,从全要素融合角度建立包括自然资源要素禀赋水平、自然资源要素利用水平和自然资源要素保护水平三个维度的自然资源要素配置水平评价指标体系,运用综合集成赋权法、“3σ”法则和综合评价等方法,对2012-2021年苏南地区自然资源要素配置水平进行综合分析与评价。结果表明,2012-2021年间苏南地区各市自然资源要素综合配置水平整体上呈波动上升趋势,其中南京市自然资源要素综合配置水平明显优于其他城市,各市自然资源要素禀赋水平呈现先上升后下降趋势,利用水平变化幅度较小,保护水平则呈现大幅度提升。近十年间,仅南京市的自然资源要素综合配置水平达到高效配置和极优配置,苏州市和无锡市维持在一般配置水平,常州市和镇江市由低效配置发展为一般配置,各市无极差配置现象。

基于LUCC的生态系统服务价值时空演变——以祁连山区域为例

分析祁连山区域生态系统服务价值的时空变化特征,可为该区土地高效开发利用、生态恢复与保护机制的构建提供数据支撑。基于1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据,运用改进的当量因子定量评估祁连山区域不同历史时期的生态系统服务价值,结合空间自相关及GIS空间统计方法,探究研究区不同乡镇的地均生态系统服务价值时空变化特征。结果表明:1)1980-2020年,研究区主要土地类型为未利用地、草地、林地、耕地,总覆盖率在93%以上。其中林地和未利用地面积减少,建设用地动态度变化最大。2)1980-2020年,祁连山区域生态系统服务总价值增加了170.8285×10^(8)元,其中草地、林地和水域的生态服务价值占78%,水文调节和气候调节的生态服务价值占60.14%。3)地均生态系统服务价值的空间正相关性较明显,空间集聚程度较高。高值聚集区有由增加向减少转变的趋势,低值聚集区逐年增加。4)1980-2010年,祁连山区域南部生态系统服务价值高于北部,北部生态系统服务价值在2010年后有增加趋势,但研究区南北间生态系统服务价值还未达到均衡和稳定。

Research on TemporaI and Spatial Patterns and Dynamic Laws of Soil Water at Eco-tope between Oasis and Desert

Based on long term and stationary research, the temporal and spatial patterns and dynamic laws of soil water content in Minqin desert area were studied. Some results are as follows:(1)The change of soil water content in different years is not obviously in shrub sand dune of Nitraria sibirica and Tamarix ramosissima, but it was great in shifting sand dune, the maximum is 2.538%; (2)The season dynamics can be divided into three stages: accumulating, consuming and stable; (3) The vertical change of soil wa...

基于手机信令数据的城市居民动态OD矩阵提取方法

现有的城市居民出行调查周期较长,交通小区划分粒度粗糙,导致调查不能及时准确地获取居民出行信息。针对该问题,提出了一种基于手机信令数据的城市居民动态OD矩阵提取方法。首先,针对信令数据中的两种复杂噪声:乒乓切换和漂移数据,提出了基于窗口阈值的检测与等效位置替换方法,以及复杂漂移点的检测和标记处理方法;然后,提出一种改进的ST-DBSCAN聚类方法,引入一种等时化方法将时间信息与空间信息相结合,识别出行过程中的驻留点;最后,基于地理信息系统构建含有道路关键节点的路网,将居民出行OD与路网节点相匹配,有效推导出城市居民动态OD矩阵。实验结果表明:与ST-DBSCAN算法相比,所提改进的ST-DBSCAN算法在聚类效果和识别速度上分别提升了6.10%和5.26%;与统计方法和二阶统计量方法相比,基于改进的ST-DBSCAN算法的动态OD矩阵提取方法在均方误差(MSE)上分别降低了16.98%和21.55%。以北京市为例,运用提出的动态OD矩阵提取方法,能够及时有效地分析城市居民日常与高峰时段的出行特征。

中国水产品贸易生态足迹时空演变与动态预测

国际贸易下的生态输入与输出在一定程度上会重新配置国家及地区之间的生态环境资源。中国在大力发展水产品贸易的同时,也面临着由此带来的生态资源损失等问题。基于生态足迹模型测算2001—2020年中国与35个主要国家和地区的水产品贸易生态足迹和生态净值进行现状评价,通过ArcGIS揭示生态净值的时空演变特征,并运用ARIMA模型预测其未来变化趋势。研究结果表明:(1)中国水产品进口与出口生态足迹值较大,不同种类水产品贸易生态足迹值差距较大。(2)中国水产品贸易生态净值虽然近期呈现显著上升趋势,但整体生态净值态势不稳定,而且不同种类水产品贸易生态净值差别较大。(3)中国水产品贸易生态净值在时间维度上整体变化程度不高,但在空间维度上存在明显的异质性问题,并且集中程度变化较为明显。(4)中国水产品出口贸易生态足迹和进口贸易生态足迹主要国家分布基本保持稳定,但是少数主要国家变化明显,水产品出口贸易和进口贸易集中度均较高。(5)预测2021—2025年中国水产品出口和进口生态足迹处于明显不平衡状态,2025年中国水产品贸易生态净值空间分布依然存在明显的异质性问题。因此,本研究从优化水产品贸易结构、畅通产业双循环路径、提升海洋科技创新能力、深化多边贸易合作体制等不同维度提出优化中国水产品贸易生态足迹的相关对策建议,为中国水产品贸易可持续发展提供现实依据。

县域耕地非农化时空演变特征及动态趋势研究——以安徽省为例

耕地是国家粮食安全的物质基础,把握耕地非农化的时空演变规律及动态趋势,对保障粮食供给和可持续发展具有重要意义。以安徽省为研究对象,基于ArcGIS、GeoDa和Matlab软件,提取安徽省1995—2020年耕地非农化数据,在县域尺度上,采取探索性空间数据分析方法研究耕地非农化时空演变特征,运用MarKov链分析耕地非农化的动态演变趋势,为合理管控耕地非农化提供科学依据。结果表明,安徽省耕地非农化面积高值区主要位于安徽省中部(合肥都市圈)重点发展区,低值区主要集中在安徽省北部和南部一些经济欠发达地区,空间集聚性呈先减后增再减趋势,集聚效应逐渐减弱,冷热点区在空间上形成了“块状热点集群”和“点状冷点集群”。安徽省县域耕地非农化水平的趋势主要表现为:不同等级间不够稳定,易发生转移;等级转移基本发生在相邻类型之间,较少出现“跳跃式”转移;考虑空间因素后发现,相邻县区差异化的耕地非农化水平对本县区发生等级转移的概率有不同程度的影响,随着空间溢出效应增强,维持原等级的概率越低,更易发生转移;等级转移的概率同时受空间滞后类型和初始等级的影响。