Temporal-spatial Variation Characteristics of the Extreme Precipitation Days over South China from 1961 to 2010

[ Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation days over South China from 1961 to 2010. [ Method] Based on the daily precipitation data in meteorological stations over South China, extreme precipitation thresholds were determined according to the percentiles distribution for different stations. Temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation days over South China were studied by the methods of fuzzy clustering, trend coefficient, wavelet analysis and cross spectrum analysis, etc. [ Re- suit] Four sub-regions were identified over South China. They were respectively Nanling area, west Guangxi area, Coast area and Hainan area. Occurrence seasons of the extreme precipitations in each sub-region were significantly different. Extreme precipitation clays in four sub-regions all had increase trends, and those of Nanling area and Coast area were significant. From wavelet analysis and cress spectrum analysis, there were significant periodic variation characteristics. Extreme precipitation days in each sub-region all had significant same-phase evolution trends at the peri- od of 2 -5 years, but backward time length was different. [ Conclusion] The research provided background materials for forecast and influence as- sessment of the extremely heavy precipitation over South China.

Temporal-spatial Characteristics of the Urbanization of Rural Land in Xinjiang

Relying on remote sensor technology, GIS and Land--sat TM digital images,the authors use spatial and statistical analysis to examine the temporal-spatial characteristics of the change caused by urban construction in Xinjiang’s rural areas from the end of the 1980s to the end of the 1990s. The primary findings show the following: 1) The urban construction in rural areas has increased drastically. The expansion speed of urban land use has accelerated over the past decade. The sub-land use changes caused by the urbanization of rural are characterized by salient regional differentiation among the three main regions and among the 85 counties of Xinjiang. 2) The shift of land use is mostly characterized by cultivated land and grassland being used for urban and industrial projects. Moreover, this change of land use is characteristic of regional differences. 3) Factors of rural-urban construction land use changes in Xinjiang, are undoubtedly affected by natural environment, social, economic conditions, and to a larger degree by population growth, GDP development and industrial development..

Study on Temporal-spatial Change Characteristics of the Extremely Low Temperature Climate Event in Winter of China

[ Objective] The research aimed to study temporal-spatial change characteristics of the extremely low temperature climate event in winter of China. [MethodI By using actual probability distribution threshold value method, EOF analysis method and the daily minimum temperature data in winter of 1961 -2008 at 195 observatories of China, temporal-spatial change characteristics of the extremely low temperature climate event in win- ter of China in 48 years were analyzed. [ Result] Threshold value calculated by actual probability distribution was higher than that by traditional method, and increase magnitude in east was bigger than that in west, which could describe climatic change situation in China in 48 years better than traditional method. Cold night number in winter of China did not decrease as latitude declined, and it was more in south and north and was less in Yellow River basin and northwest China. Cold night number was the most in northeast Inner Mongolia. Interannual change of the cold night number presented decline tendency. From the 1960s to the eady 1970s, cold night number consistently increased, and change in middle and late periods of the 1960s was severe. From the early 1970s to the middle 1980s, fluctuation of the cold night number was bigger, and increase of the cold night number was the most in 1976. Cold night number from 1986 to the 21= century continuously declined. Change of the cold night number was the most obvious in east region, Guizhou and north Guangxi. Cold night number in northeast China and north Inner Mongolia presented inverting change relationship with that in Yunnan - Kweichow Plateau and Hexi Corridor. [ Conclusion] The research provided reference for eady warning of the extremely low temoerature event in China.

Study on diversity and temporal-spatial characteristics of eukaryotic microorganisms on Glacier No.1 at the Urumqi River Head,Tianshan

Surface snow samples of different altitudes and snow pit samples were collected from Glacier No. 1 at the Urumqi River Head, Tianshan. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis （DGGE） was used to examine the diversity and temporal-spatial characteristics of eukaryotic microorganisms with different altitudes and depths. Results show that the eukaryotic microorganisms belong to four kingdoms--Viridiplantae, Fungi, Amoebozoa, and Alveolata. Among them, algae （especially Chlamydomonadales） were the dominant group. The diversity of eukaryotic microorganisms was negatively correlated with altitude and accumulation time, but positively correlated with 8180 values. These results indicate that temperature is the main factor for the temporal-spatial change of eukaryotic microorganisms, and the diversity of eukaryotic microorganisms could be an index for climate and environmental change.

Climatological Characteristics of the Moisture Budget and Their Anomalies over the Joining Area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean

The climatological characteristics of the moisture budget over the joining area of Asia and the IndianPacific Ocean （AIPO） and its adjacent regions as well as their anomalies have been estimated in this study. The main results are as follows. In the winter, the northeasterly moisture transport covers the extensive areas at the lower latitudes of the AIPO. The westerly and northerly moisture transport is the major source and the South Indian Ocean （SIO） is the moisture sink. In the summer, influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal wind, the crossequatorial southwesterly moisture transport across Somali originating from the SIO is transported through the Arabian Sea （AS）, the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, and the South China Sea （SCS） to eastern China. The AIPO is controlled by the southwesterly moisture transport. The net moisture influx over the AIPO has obvious interannual and interdecadal variations. From the mid- or late 1970s, the influxes over the SIO, the AS, the northern part of the western North Pacific （NWNP）, and North China （NC） as well as South China （SC） begin to decrease abruptly, while those over Northeast China （NEC） and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins （YHRB） have increased remarkably. As a whole, the net moisture influxes over the BOB and the southern part of the western North Pacific （SWNP） in the recent 50 years take on a linear increasing trend. However, the transition timing for these two regions is different with the former being at the mid- or late 1980s and the latter occurring earlier, approximately at the early stage of the 1970s. The anomalous moisture source associated with the precipitation anomalies is different from the normal conditions of the summer precipitation. For the drought or flood years or the years of E1 Nifio and its following years, the anomalous moisture transport originating from the western North Pacific （WNP） is the vital source of the anomalous precipitation over eastern China, which is greatly related with the variation of the subtropical Pacific high.

CHARACTERISTICS OF ZONAL ANOMALY OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN CHINA

The characteristics of zonal anomaly and change rule of temporal distribution of annual precipitation in the northeastern China are revealed in this paper with EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) and REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function) methods and results are drawn in the standard relief maps with GIS technology for practical application. Data used in the study were obtained from 208 meteorological stations over the northeastern China from 1961 to 2001. EOF results show that the first 3 loading vectors could give entire spatial anomaly structure of annual precipitation. In the Northeast Plain including the Songneng Plain and the Liaohe Plain, there is a regional compatibility (whether wet or dry) of annual precipitation change and this precipitation pattern has occurred since the late 1980s to the present. There also exist annual precipitation patterns of wet (or dry) in south and dry (or wet) in north and wet (or dry) in east and dry (or wet) in west. REOF results display 8 principal precipitation anomaly areas by the first 8 rotated loading vectors: the west plain, the Liaodong hills, the Sanjiang Plain, the Liaoxi hills, the Changbai Mountains, the Hulun Buir Plateau, the southwest plateau and the Liaodong Peninsula.

Research on the Extraction of OLR Anomaly Prior to Ms 7.5 Sand Point,Alaska Earthquake based on IPI Method

Based on the understanding that the seismic fault system is a nonlinear complex system,Rundle(1995)introduced the nonlinear threshold system used in meteorology to analyze the ocean-atmosphere interface and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation into the study of seismic activity changes,and then proposed the PI method(Rundle et al.,2000a,b).Wu et al.(2011)modified the Pattern Informatics Method named MPI to extract the ionospheric anomaly by using data from DEMETER satellites which is suitable for 1–3 months short-term prediction.

Analysis on Climatic Characteristics of the Precipitation Anomaly in Southwest China in Recent 60 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China from 1951 to 2010. [Method] Based on monthly precipitation data at 44 stations of southwest China and 160 stations of China from 1951 to 2010, by using EOF analysis, wavelet analysis and composite analysis, monthly and seasonal change rules of the precipitation in southwest China were analyzed. Corresponding spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the precipitation in drought and flood years were studied. Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China in recent 60 years were revealed. [Result] Seasonal distribution of the precipitation in southwest China was uneven and was typical single-peak type. Precipitation concentrated from May to September, and peak appeared in July. In recent years, rainfall in autumn significantly became less, while that in other seasons had no obvious change. Precipitation in summer had the cycle of 14 years, another for 6 years and 3-4 years of periodic oscillations. In wet years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in southern China, and anti-phase with that in the junction of Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang and Tibet. In dry years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in the eastern part of northwest China and northern China. [Conclusion] The research provided reference basis for prediction and pre-warning of the precipitation in the zone.

Analysis on the Characteristics of the Kalpin Ms5.3 Earthquake Sequence of December 1,2013 and Anomalies before the Earthquake

This paper introduces the basic parameters,focal mechanism solutions and earthquake sequence characteristics of the Kalpin M_S5.3 earthquake sequence of December 1,2013,and analyzed seismic activity before the earthquake,the adjacent tectonic features and the precursory anomaly at fixed points within a range of 200 km. Research indicates:(1) The earthquake occurred on Kalpin fault,the source rupture type is thrust faulting with sinistral strike-slip component.( 2) The earthquake sequence is mainshock-aftershock type,with the aftershock distribution attenuating quickly and trending NE.(3) Abnormal seismic activity before the earthquake was characterized by seismically nesting quiescence of MS2. 0-4. 0 earthquakes,seismic quiescence of MS4. 0 earthquakes and seismic belts of MS3. 0 earthquakes in the Kalpin block, abnormal enhancement zone of moderate earthquakes on Puchang fault and seismological parameters.(4) Anomalies of precursory observation data at fixed stations are mainly characterized by mutation. Apart from the borehole tiltmeter in Halajun, the spatial distribution of other abnormal precursors showed a phenomenon of migration from the near field to far field and from the epicenter to the peripheries.

Characteristics of Far-field Precursory Anomalies Before the M_S8.1 Earthquake in the West of Kunlun Mountains Pass

In this study, a number of typical precursory anomalies recorded by stations in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Hebei and Shaanxi provinces and autonomous regions before the Ms8.1 earthquake in the west of Kunlun Mountains Pass are collected and checked. According to the standards of earthquake cases in China, the criteria of the precursory anomalies are determined, and 53 distinguished. The characteristics of these anomalies before the Ms S. 1 earthquake are analyzed, with results showing a very large earthquake affected area. The precursory anomalies recorded by instruments were 2900 km away from the epicenter, and according to the study in this paper, reached 2100 km away. The results also show that the anomalies present characteristics of long duration, multi-measurement items and large-amplitude variation. The authors believe that in large earthquake monitoring, attention should be paid to the variation of data over a large area, ranging up to thousands kilometers, with much denser earthquake observation networks.

Experimental studies on pillar failure characteristics based on acoustic emission location technique

Acoustic emission （AE） technique is a useful tool for investigating rock damage mechanism, and is used to study the temporal-spatial evolution process of microcracks during the similar pillar material experiment. A combined AE location algorithm was developed based on the Least square algorithm and Geiger location algorithm. The pencil break test results show that the location precision can meet the demand of microcrack monitoring. The 3D location of AE events can directly reflect the process of initiation, propagation and evolutionary of microcracks. During the loading process, stress is much likely concentrated on the area between pillar and roof of the specimen, where belongs to danger zone of macroscopic failure. When rock reaches its plastic deformation stage, AE events begin to decrease, which indicates that AE quiet period can be seen as precursor characteristic of rock failure.

CHARACTERISTICS AND METALLOGENIC EVOLUTION OF AILAOSHAN GOLD METALLOGENIC BELTS IN YUNNAN, CHINA

Observations made in different superlarge\|large gold deposits in Ailaoshan gold metallogenic belts, Yunnan Province, China, on the eastern margin of the Qingzang (Himalayas—Karakoram—Tibet) were investigated. Geotectonically, the study area is situated in the conjoint between the Tethys and Himalayas tectonic domain, characterized by very complex geological structure, with strongly influenced by the Himalayas in late development.1\ Regional geology and gold deposits\;Ailaoshan gold metallogenic belts is localized between Ailaoshan super lithospheric faults and Jiujia—Anding brittle\|ductile shear zone, with NNW\|trending about 250km long. To southward, Zhenyuan supergiant gold deposits, Mojiang large gold deposits, and Daping giant gold deposits hosted in low metamorphic volcanic\|sedimentary rocks (D—C). Ore types include gold\|bearing quartz veins, gold\|bearing altered rocks, and the mixing of the two types. Most of gold orebodies took their positions in the substructures of the brittle\|ductile shear zone.

Current tectonic deformation and seismogenic characteristics along the northeast margin of Qinghai -Xizang block

Based on the data from repeated precise leveling and across-fault deformation measurements carried out in recent 30 years and the analyzed results from GPS observations made in recent years along the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang block, and combined with the geological structures and seismic activities, some characteristics in regional tectonic deformation and strong earthquake development are studied and approached preliminarily. The results show that: a) The space-time distribution of current tectonic deformation in this area is inhomogeneous with relatively intensive tectonic deformation in the vicinity of main boundary faults and weak deformation in the farther areas. The intensity of vertical differential movement and the deformation status vary with time, and the horizontal movement and deformation are characterized by apparent compression and strike-slip. b) The tectonic stress field generated by the NE-trending continuous compressive movement of Qinghai-Xizang block due to the northward press and collision of India plate is the principal stress for the tectonic deformation and earthquake development in this area. The evolution of space-time distribution of tectonic deformation and seismicity is closely related to the block activity and dynamic evolution of regional tectonic stress field. c) The vertical deformation uplift and high-gradient deformation zones and the obvious fault deformation anomaly appeared along the boundaries of tectonic blocks can be considered as the indicators of hindered block motion and intensified tectonic stress field for strong earthquake development. Usually, the above-mentioned phenomena would be followed by the seismicity of M6.0, but the earthquake might not occur in the place with the maximum movement. The zones with the fault deformation anomaly characterized by tendencious accumulation acceleration turning and the surrounding areas might be the positions for accumulation of strain energy and development and occurrence of strong earthquakes.

Characteristic Analysis of Anomalies of Strong Earthquakes along the Tancheng-Lujiang Fault Zone and Both Its Sides

This article made a systematic statistical analysis on the duration,spatial distribution,form,range,type and reliability of precursory anomalies based on the observations of precursors of 24 moderate-strong earthquakes occurring along the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone and its bilateral areas in Shandong,Liaoning,Hebei,Jiangsu and Jiangxi Provinces in the period from 1966 to 2005. Results show that:( 1) For M7. 0 and M6. 0earthquakes,med-term abnormities are the greatest in number,short-term abnormities come second,and imminent anomalies are the least. For M5. 0 earthquakes,short-term abnormities are often the most in number,imminent anomalies come second,and the med-term ones are the least.( 2) Precursory anomalies are periodical,part of the med and short-term anomalies are shown as short-term and imminent anomalies during their development.( 3) The development of precursor shows quasi-synchronism; the closer to earthquake occurrence time,the more turning changes of anomalies will appear.( 4)Anomalies mainly occur within an epicenter distance of 100 km, showing a relative concentrated distribution in space,and the shorter the distance to epicenter,the higher the anomaly station / item rate.( 5) The spatial distribution of anomalies is relatively correlated to the strike of structures,having a good consistency with the structure.( 6)There is no significant correlation between duration of abnormities and the epicenter distance.( 7) The higher the magnitude of the earthquake,the greater the amplitude of the abnormities measured with the same observation approach.( 8) In terms of the itemsof the observations,fluid abnormities are the greatest in number,followed by deformation and electromagnetism observations.( 9) For all observation items,med and short-term abnormities make up the majority and short-term and imminent anomalies the minority.( 10) In fluid,deformation and electromagnetism observations,fairly reliable anomalies are about double the number of reliable anomalies.

Study of the Evolutionary Characteristics of Precursor Information Fields in North China Region and Their Relation to Earthquakes

On the basis of previous study results about the seismic anomaly precursor information quantity, universal and synthetic mathematical expressions that describe the precursor information quantity of various seismic anomalies are further given. Starting from large amounts of data of earthquake cases, the problem of the sustained effective time of seismic anomaly was studied again and the mathematical relationship between the sustained effective time of seismic anomaly and continuing effective time of seismic anomaly was further established. About one million pieces of precursor observation data belonging to 371 items of hydrochemistry, deformation, geomagnetism, stress, water level, geoelectricity, etc. In North China region in the period of 1980～ 1997 were collected and sorted out, and the seismic anomaly precursor information quantity of these items was calculated item by item. The evolutionary characteristics of seismic anomaly precursor information field in North China region in about 20 years and their relation to earthquakes were studied; an index system for medium- and short-term predictions of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.0 in North China region was established. After having checked by the R-value scoring method, the index system for synthetic earthquake prediction was proved to be of certain efficacy in medium- and short-term earthquake prediction.

Analysis of Climatic Characteristics of Fog and Haze Weather in Shaoyang in the Past 60 Years and Its Forecast

Based on conventional observation data and NCEP reanalysis data at 10 national basic stations and reference stations of Shaoyang City during 1951-2014,300 cases of typical regional dense fog process appeared in the history were selected. From meteorological factors and weather situation,temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and trend change characteristics of dense fog in Shaoyang were analyzed. The results showed that（ 1） temporal-spatial distribution of dense fog in Shaoyang region was uneven,and interannual variability of fog days had large volatility and bad periodicity; dense fog days in Shaoyang region was obviously more in winter half year and less in summer half year. Dense fog was the most in November and the least in July. Dense fog mostly concentrated during 03： 00-09： 00; appearance time mostly concentrated during 05： 00-07： 30,and dissipation time mostly appeared after 08： 30. Dense fog appeared early and dissipated late in winter half year,and vice verse in summer half year.（ 2） Seen from meteorological factors,ground and 850 h Pa of wind velocity was generally 0-3 m/s,which was all small. Moreover,there existed temperature inversion from ground to 850 h Pa. Relative humidity on dense fog day was larger,and precipitation or cloudy day mostly appeared in prior day.（ 3） There were four kinds of ground weather situation forming dense fog： uniform pressure field type,cold and high pressure bottom type,cold and high pressure rear type,frontal type. Based on grasping change characteristics,rule and formation reason of dense fog,some forecast focus was found.

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Soil Moisture in Spring in the Arid Regions of Northwest China in the Past 60s years

Soil moisture (SM) is one of the important parameters in the process of land-atmosphere interactions. The spatial-temporal distribution of SM plays a significant role in weather and climate research. In this study, based on the monthly SM datasets from GLDAS (Global Land Surface Data Assimilation System), the temporal and spatial changes of shallow SM are discussed, and the applicability of five domestic models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is also evaluated in the Northwest China. The results show that: 1) The shallow SM (0 - 10 cm) in spring in Northwest China was generally low during 1948-2015, and the low value areas were mainly located in the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang and the Gobi and desert areas in western Inner Mongolia. In most parts of Northwest China, SM had an increasing trend in spring, this implies it became wetter in recent 60 years;2) There are larger difference between the five models for simulating SM. Except for BCC-ESM1, all the four models (including BCC-CSM2-MR, FGOALS-f3-L, FGOALS-g3, TaiESM1) can basically simulate the spatial distribution and trend of SM in spring, all the spatial correlation coefficients between the four models and GLDAS data pass the 99% significant level;3) After multi-ensemble mean, the simulation performance can be obviously improved, the spatial correlation can reach about 0.55 in spring, the spatial trend is much closer to the GLDAS.

Analysis on Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of the Precipitation in Four Provinces of Northwest China

[ Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial change characteristics of the precipitation in the four provinces of northwest China. [Method] Based on precipitation data at 113 ground observation stations in the four provinces （Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia） of northwest China from 1961 to 2008, by using linear regression and Morlet wavelet transformation, spatial pattern, change trend and periodic charac- teristics of the precipitation in the zone in 48 years were analyzed. [ Result] Rainfall in the four provinces of northwest China had obvious interannual and seasonal change characteristics. Annual, spring and autumn rainfalls all presented decline trends. Summer and winter rainfalls both had slight increase trends, but change trend wasn＇t obvious. Precipitation change in the four provinces of northwest China had obvious regional difference. In- crease amplitudes in Tanggula Mountains, Tsaidam Basin and east Qilian Mountains were obvious. Obvious decrease amplitude existed in east Gansu, south and north Shaanxi. Precipitation in east and west areas of the four provinces in northwest China presented reverse phase change characteristics. Precipitation presented decrease trend in east and increase trend in most areas of west. Precipitation in the whole district, east dis- trict and west district generally had 3-5-year short period, which was main period. Precipitation also had 8-year and t5-year medium periods in some areas. Under different time scales, dry-wet alternation and mutation point had difference. [ Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for studying climate change in northwest China.

2023年中国气候异常特征及主要天气气候事件

2023年,我国气候主要表现为暖干的特征,全国平均气温10.71℃,较1991—2020年气候平均偏高0.82℃,为1951年以来最暖;全国平均降水量615.0 mm,较常年偏少3.9%,为2012年以来第二少。四季气温均较常年同期偏高,其中夏、秋季分别为历史同期次高和最高;除秋季降水偏多外,其余三季降水均偏少。汛期(5—9月),全国平均降水量较常年同期偏少4.3%,为2012年以来第二少,我国中东部降水总体呈“中间多南北少”的分布。2023年,我国区域性气象干旱多发,西南地区遭遇冬春连旱;春季北方沙尘天气过程偏多;夏季前期,华北和黄淮遭受1961年以来最强高温过程;7月底至8月初,受台风杜苏芮影响,京津冀地区发生历史罕见极端强降水过程,华北地区出现“旱涝急转”;华西秋雨开始早、结束晚、雨量多;1月中旬发生年内最强寒潮过程;秋末冬初冷空气频繁入侵,12月华北和黄淮等地降雪日数偏多、积雪偏深。

云南地区氡异常与地震的统计特征分析

通过梳理1976—2022年震例总结报告中云南地区73组M_(S)≥5.0地震的氡测项异常,对其特征予以统计分析。结果表明:73组地震中有63组震前出现水氡异常,震前6个月内的短期异常占总异常的71%,3个月内的短临异常占总异常的49%,地震前3个月异常数量增加显著;震级越大,异常分布越远离震中,震前1个月新出现的异常大部分集中在震中附近。相对而言,由于测点位置和观测技术方面的原因,气氡积累的震例远远少于水氡,但具有短期异常占比较高的优势。随着气氡观测技术的不断改进和观测经验的不断积累,其捕捉地震异常信息的能力也将会不断提升。