Spatio-Temporal Variations in Co-Occurrence Patterns of Fish Communities in Haizhou Bay, China: Null Model Analysis

Co-occurrence pattern of fish species plays an important role in understanding the spatio-temporal structure and the stability of fish community.Species coexistence may vary with time and space.The co-occurrence patterns of fish species were examined using the C-score under fixed-fixed null model for fish communities in spring and autumn over different years in the Haizhou Bay,China.The results showed that fish assemblages in the whole bay had non-random patterns in spring and autumn over different years.However,the fish co-occurrence patterns were different for the northern and southern fish assemblages in spring and autumn.The northern fish assemblage showed structured pattern,whereas the southern assemblage were randomly assembled in spring.The co-occurrence patterns of fish communities were relatively stable over different years,and the number of significant species pairs in northern assemblage was more than that in the southern assemblage.Environmental heterogeneity played an important role in determining the distributions of fish species that formed significant species pairs,which might affect the co-occurrence patterns of northern and southern assemblages further in the Haizhou Bay.

On the long-term memory characteristic in land surface air temperatures:How well do CMIP6 models perform?

利用去趋势涨落分析(DFA)方法计算序列的长程记忆性(LTM),以CRUTEM5数据集的结果作为观测参照,评估了60个参与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候模式对地表气温LTM的再现能力.结果表明:大部分模式可以再现全球平均地表气温序列的LTM特征,其中AWI-ESM-1-1-LR和E3SM-1-0的模拟效果最好;60个模式均能模拟LTM随纬度带的变化;综合来说,全球水平上CNRM-CM6-1和HadGEM3-GC31-LL对地表气温LTM的模拟性能最好;多模式平均相比单一模式模拟性能更好;多模式平均与观测结果的偏差以及模式之间的模拟差异显著体现在赤道和沿海区域,这种偏差可能源于模式对海气耦合过程的模拟差异.

Combined effects of habitat and interspec ificinteraction define co-occurrence patterns of sympatric Galliformes

Background:Disentangling the relative importance of environmental variables and interspecific interaction in modulating co-occurrence patterns of sympatric species is essential for understanding the mechanisms of community assembly and biodiversity. For the two sympatric Galliformes, Silver Pheasants (Lophura nycthemera) and Whitenecklaced Partridges (Arborophila gingica), we know little about the role of habitat use and interspecific interactions in modulating their coexistence. Methods:We adopted a probabilistic approach incorporating habitat preference and interspecific interaction using occupancy model to account for imperfect detection,and used daily activity pattern analysis to investigate the cooccurrence pattern of these two sympatric Galliformes in wet and dry seasons. Results: We found that the detection probability of Silver Pheasant and White-necklaced Partridge were related to habitat variables and interspecific interaction. The presence of Silver Pheasant increases the detection probability of White-necklaced Partridge in both the wet and dry season. However, the presence of White-necklaced Partridges increases the detection probability of Silver Pheasants in the wet season, but decreases the probability in the dry season. Further, Silver Pheasants were detected frequently in the sites of high values of enhanced vegetable index (EVI) in both the wet and dry season, and in sites away from human residential settlement in the wet season. Whitenecklaced partridges were mainly detected in low EVI sites. The site use probabilities of two Galliformes were best explained by habitat variables, Silver Pheasants and White-necklaced Partridges preferred steeper areas during the wet and dry season. Both species mainly occurred in low EVI areas during the wet season and occupied sites away from the resident settlement during the dry season. Moreover, the site use probabilities of two species had opposite relationships with forest canopy coverage. Silver Pheasants preferred areas with high forest canopy coverage whereas White-necklaced Partridges preferred low forest canopy coverage in the dry season, and vice versa in the wet season. Species interaction factor (SIF)corroborated weak evidence of the dependence of the site use of one species on that of the other in the either dry or wet season.Temporally, high overlapping of daily activity pattern indicated no significantly temporal niche differentiation between sympatric Galliformes in both wet and dry seasons. Conclusions:Our results demonstrated that the presence of two species influenced the detection probability interactively and there was no temporal partitioning in activity time between Silver Pheasants and White-necklaced Partridges in the wet and dry seasons.The site use probability of two Galliformes was best explained by habitat variables, especially the forest canopy coverage.Therefore, environmental variables and interspecific interaction are the leading drivers regulating the detection and site use probability and promoting co-occurrence of Silver Pheasants and White-necklaced Partridges.

Existence of Four Periodic Solutions of a Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey Model with Exploited Terms

We study a non-autonomous ratio-dependent predator-prey model with exploited terms. This model is of periodic coefficients, which incorporates the periodicity of the varying environment. By means of the coincidence degree theory, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of at least four positive periodic solutions of this model.

A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis and its application to the Guangxi coast

A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis is presented.The present model keeps some advantages of tea GM (1, 1 )model, which well reflects the trend of sea-level changes and gives out the change rate as well as the acceleration of sea level conveniently.level conveniently.In addition, the present model can reproduce the periodic phenomena of sealevel, hence, it overcomes the shortcomings of the GM(1,1) model that is unsuitable for forecasting monthly mean sealevel with apparent periodicity, and its prediction accuracy is improved.The present model is used to analyse Guangxi coast sea level,the results show that the rise rates of relative sea level at Beihai, Weizhou and Bailongwei are 1 .67,2 .51 and 0.89 mm/a respectively, the relative sea level at Shitoubu has a falling trend with a rate of 0. 5- 1 .0 mm/a, the rise rate of eustatic sea level along the Guangxi coast is 2 .0 mm/a. In comparison with the model with a lineartrend term plus a periodic term, the simulation accuracies of both models are about the same.

EXISTENCE AND UNIQUENESS OF THE POSITIVE STEADY STATE SOLUTION FOR A LOTKA-VOLTERRA PREDATOR-PREY MODEL WITH A CROWDING TERM

This paper deals with a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model with a crowding term in the predator equation.We obtain a critical value λ1^D(Ω0),and demonstrate that the existence of the predator inΩ0 only depends on the relationship of the growth rateμof the predator and λ1^D(Ω0),not on the prey.Furthermore,whenμ<λ1^D(Ω0),we obtain the existence and uniqueness of its positive steady state solution,while whenμ≥λ1^D(Ω0),the predator and the prey cannot coexist inΩ0.Our results show that the coexistence of the prey and the predator is sensitive to the size of the crowding regionΩ0,which is different from that of the classical Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model.

A Long-Term Numerical Model of Morphodynamic Evolution and Its Application to the Modaomen Estuary

Because of the influence of human activities, the evolution of the Modaomen Estuary is no longer a purely natural process. We used a long-term morphodynamic model （PRD-LTMM-10） to study the evolution of the estuary from 1977 to 1988. The model incorporated modules for riprap-siltation promotion and waterway dredging. The model can simulate the morphodynamic evolutionary processes occurring in the Modaomen Estuary during the period of interest. We were able to isolate the long-term influences of various human engineering activities and the roles of natural factors in estuarine evolution. The governance projects had the largest effect on the natural development of the estuary, resulting in larger siltation on the west side. Installation of riprap and reclamation of submerged land resulted in scouring of the main Hengzhou Channel causing deep trough out-shift. Severe siltation narrowed the upper end of the Longshiku Deep Trough.

Basic Soil Productivity of Spring Maize in Black Soil Under Long-Term Fertilization Based on DSSAT Model

Increasing basic farmland soil productivity has significance in reducing fertilizer application and maintaining high yield of crops. In this study, we defined that the basic soil productivity （BSP） is the production capacity of a farmland soil with its own physical and chemical properties for a specific crop season under local environment and field management. Based on 22-yr （1990-2011） long-term experimental data on black soil （Typic hapludoll） in Gongzhuling, Jilin Province, Northeast China, the decision support system for an agro-technology transfer （DSSAT）-CERES-Maize model was applied to simulate the yield by BSP of spring maize （Zea mays L.） to examine the effects of long-term fertilization on changes of BSP and explore the mechanisms of BSP increasing. Five treatments were examined： （1） no-fertilization control （control）; （2） chemical nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium （NPK）; （3） NPK plus farmyard manure （NPKM）; （4） 1.5 time of NPKM （1.5NPKM） and （5） NPK plus straw （NPKS）. Results showed that after 22-yr fertilization, the yield by BSP of spring maize significantly increased 78.0, 101.2, and 69.4% under the NPKM, 1.5NPKM and NPKS, respectively, compared to the initial value （in 1992）, but not significant under NPK （26.9% increase） and the control （8.9% decrease）. The contribution percentage of BSP showed a significant rising trend （P〈0.05） under 1.5NPKM. The average contribution percentage of BSP among fertilizations ranged from 74.4 to 84.7%, and ranked as 1.5NPKM〉NPKM〉NPK〉NPKS, indicating that organic manure combined with chemical fertilizers （I.5NPKM and NPKM） could more effectively increase BSP compared with the inorganic fertilizer application alone （NPK） in the black soil. This study showed that soil organic matter （SOM） was the key factor among various fertility factors that could affect BSP in the black soil, and total N, total P and/or available P also played important role in BSP increasing. Compared with the chemical fertilization, a balanced chemical plus manure or straw fertilization （NPKM or NPKS） not only increased the concentrations of soil nutrient, but also improved the soil physical properties, and structure and diversity of soil microbial population, resulting in an iincrease of BSP. We recommend that a balanced chemical plus manure or straw fertilization （NPKM or NPKS） should be the fertilization practices to enhance spring maize yield and improve BSP in the black soil of Northeast China.

Modelling long-term deformation of granular soils incorporating the concept of fractional calculus

Many constitutive models exist to characterise the cyclic behaviour of granular soils but can only simulate deformations for very limited cycles. Fractional derivatives have been regarded as one potential instrument for modelling memory-dependent phenomena. In this paper, the physical connection between the fractional derivative order and the fractal dimension of granular soils is investigated in detail. Then a modified elasto-plastic constitutive model is proposed for evaluating the long-term deformation of granular soils under cyclic loading by incorporating the concept of fac- tional calculus. To describe the flow direction of granular soils under cyclic loading, a cyclic flow potential consider- ing particle breakage is used. Test results of several types of granular soils are used to validate the model performance.

Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network-Based Acoustic Model Using Connectionist Temporal Classification on a Large-Scale Training Corpus

A Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) Recurrent Neural Network(RNN) has driven tremendous improvements on an acoustic model based on Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM). However, these models based on a hybrid method require a forced aligned Hidden Markov Model(HMM) state sequence obtained from the GMM-based acoustic model. Therefore, it requires a long computation time for training both the GMM-based acoustic model and a deep learning-based acoustic model. In order to solve this problem, an acoustic model using CTC algorithm is proposed. CTC algorithm does not require the GMM-based acoustic model because it does not use the forced aligned HMM state sequence. However, previous works on a LSTM RNN-based acoustic model using CTC used a small-scale training corpus. In this paper, the LSTM RNN-based acoustic model using CTC is trained on a large-scale training corpus and its performance is evaluated. The implemented acoustic model has a performance of 6.18% and 15.01% in terms of Word Error Rate(WER) for clean speech and noisy speech, respectively. This is similar to a performance of the acoustic model based on the hybrid method.

A mathematical model of synaptotagmin 7 revealing functional importance of short-term synaptic plasticity

Synaptotagmin 7(Syt7), a presynaptic calcium sensor, has a significant role in the facilitation in shortterm synaptic plasticity: Syt7 knock out mice show a significant reduction in the facilitation. The functional importance of short-term synaptic plasticity such as facilitation is not well understood. In this study, we attempt to investigate the potential functional relationship between the short-term synaptic plasticity and postsynaptic response by developing a mathematical model that captures the responses of both wild-type and Syt7 knock-out mice. We then studied the model behaviours of wild-type and Syt7 knock-out mice in response to multiple input action potentials. These behaviors could establish functional importance of short-term plasticity in regulating the postsynaptic response and related synaptic properties. In agreement with previous modeling studies, we show that release sites are governed by non-uniform release probabilities of neurotransmitters. The structure of non-uniform release of neurotransmitters makes shortterm synaptic plasticity to act as a high-pass filter. We also propose that Syt7 may be a modulator for the long-term changes of postsynaptic response that helps to train the target frequency of the filter. We have developed a mathematical model of short-term plasticity which explains the experimental data.

Developing a Process Driven Morphological Model for Long Term Evolution of a Dynamic Coastal Embayment

Numerical modelling of coastal morphology is a complex and sometimes unrewarding exercise and often not yielding tangible results. Typically, the underlying drivers of morphology are not properly accounted for in numerical models. Such inaccuracies combined with a paucity of validation data create a difficulty for coastal planners/engineers who are required to interpret such morphological models to develop coastal management strategies. This study develops an approach to long term morphological modelling of a barrier beach system that includes the findings of over 10 years of coastal monitoring on a dynamic coastal system. The novel approach to predicting the long term evolution of the area combines a mix of short term hydrodynamic monitoring and long term morphological modelling to predict future changes in a breached barrier system. A coupled wave, wind, hydrodynamic and sediment transport numerical model was used to predict the coastal evolution in the dynamic barrier beach system of Inner Dingle Bay, Co. Kerry, Ireland. The modelling approach utilizes the schematisation of inputs to reflect observed trends. The approach is subject to two stages of validation both quantitative and qualitative. The study highlights the importance of considering all the parameters responsible for driving coastal evolution and the necessity to have long term monitoring results for trend based validation.

A hybrid model for short-term rainstorm forecasting based on a back-propagation neural network and synoptic diagnosis

暴雨是我国最重要的自然灾害之一.大量的研究表明,暴雨的频率和强度在全球变暖的背景下正在逐年增强.但是如何成功的预测短期暴雨,特别是发生在复杂地形下的暴雨,仍然是一个巨大的挑战.本项研究采用BP神经网络和天气学诊断相结合的方法,探索了一种四川盆地西部复杂地形下的暴雨预报模型.该模型有效改善了喇叭口地形下,受低层偏东风影响的暴雨预报准确性.机器学习与天气学理论的结合,提升了模型的物理基础和预测成功率,同时该方法也为发展具有本地特征的暴雨预报客观工具,提供了一定的参考价值.

Existence of Two Periodic Solutions of a Delayed Single Species Model with Feedback Regulation and Harvest Term

借助于巧合度理论的继续定理，有反馈规定和收获术语的一个推迟的单个种类模型的二个周期的答案的存在被获得。

Determination of Polarity Terms of Some Nitrogen-Containing Surfactants and Simulated Hydrophobic Tail Models by Gas Chromatography

Some polarity terms of two groups of nitrogen-containing surfactants （six alkanolamides and nine polyoxyethylenated long chain amines） are measured through gas chromatography. The apparent methanol carbon number (CMeOH) and polarity index （IP） values are determined on the investigated surfactants as stationary phases in packed columns. Similarly, CMeOH and IP values are determined on simulated hydrophobic tail （SHT） models. The obtained results reveal that the introduction of SHT approach permits the distinction between the polarities of different surfactants and their head groups. The measured polarity terms are discussed as related to hydrophile-lipophile balance （HLB） number and the hydrophobic group carbon number （RCN）. Some equations relating the measured polarity values and these variable have been developed.

Augmented Industrial Data-Driven Modeling Under the Curse of Dimensionality

The curse of dimensionality refers to the problem o increased sparsity and computational complexity when dealing with high-dimensional data.In recent years,the types and vari ables of industrial data have increased significantly,making data driven models more challenging to develop.To address this prob lem,data augmentation technology has been introduced as an effective tool to solve the sparsity problem of high-dimensiona industrial data.This paper systematically explores and discusses the necessity,feasibility,and effectiveness of augmented indus trial data-driven modeling in the context of the curse of dimen sionality and virtual big data.Then,the process of data augmen tation modeling is analyzed,and the concept of data boosting augmentation is proposed.The data boosting augmentation involves designing the reliability weight and actual-virtual weigh functions,and developing a double weighted partial least squares model to optimize the three stages of data generation,data fusion and modeling.This approach significantly improves the inter pretability,effectiveness,and practicality of data augmentation in the industrial modeling.Finally,the proposed method is verified using practical examples of fault diagnosis systems and virtua measurement systems in the industry.The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in improving the accu racy and robustness of data-driven models,making them more suitable for real-world industrial applications.

Consensus model of social network group decision-making based on trust relationship among experts and expert reliability

Due to people’s increasing dependence on social networks,it is essential to develop a consensus model considering not only their own factors but also the interaction between people.Both external trust relationship among experts and the internal reliability of experts are important factors in decision-making.This paper focuses on improving the scientificity and effectiveness of decision-making and presents a consensus model combining trust relationship among experts and expert reliability in social network group decision-making(SN-GDM).A concept named matching degree is proposed to measure expert reliability.Meanwhile,linguistic information is applied to manage the imprecise and vague information.Matching degree is expressed by a 2-tuple linguistic model,and experts’preferences are measured by a probabilistic linguistic term set(PLTS).Subsequently,a hybrid weight is explored to weigh experts’importance in a group.Then a consensus measure is introduced and a feedback mechanism is developed to produce some personalized recommendations with higher group consensus.Finally,a comparative example is provided to prove the scientificity and effectiveness of the proposed consensus model.

Wavelet time series MPARIMA modeling for power system short term load forecasting

The wavelet power system short term load forecasting(STLF) uses a mulriple periodical autoregressive integrated moving average(MPARIMA) model to model the mulriple near periodicity, nonstationarity and nonlinearity existed in power system short term quarter hour load time series, and can therefore accurately forecast the quarter hour loads of weekdays and weekends, and provide more accurate results than the conventional techniques, such as artificial neural networks and autoregressive moving average(ARMA) models test results. Obtained with a power system networks in a city in Northeastern part of China confirm the validity of the approach proposed.

Triaxial creep damage characteristics of sandstone under high crustal stress and its constitutive model for engineering application

The creep characteristics of rock under high crustal stress are of important influence on the long‐term stability of deep rock engineering.To study the creep characteristics and engineering application of sandstone under high crustal stress,this study constructed nonlinear creep damage(NCD)constitutive mode based on the triaxial graded loading‒unloading creep test of sandstone in the Yuezhishan Tunnel.A numerical NCD constitutive model and a breakable lining(BL)model were developed based on FLAC3D and then applied to the stability analysis of the Yuezhishan Tunnel.Based on the creep test results of sandstone,a power function of creep rate and stress level was constructed,by which the long‐term strength was solved.The results show that the long‐term strength of the red sandstone based on the related function of the steady‐state creep rate and stress level is close to the measured stress value in engineering.The NCD model considering damage factors reflects the instantaneous and viscoelastic plasticity deformation characteristics of the red sandstone.The numerical NCD constitutive model and the BL model can reflect surrounding rock deformation characteristics and lining failure characteristics in practical engineering.The research results provide theoretical references for long‐term stability analysis of rock engineering and the deformation control of surrounding rock under high crustal stress.

The Profit Model of Long-Term Lease Apartments Under Multi-Agent Supply

The acceleration of urbanization has led to an increase in the number of urban floating population, which leads to more demands for the housing rental market. With the support of policies, long-term lease apartments have begun to emerge. However, under the multi-subject supply, longterm lease apartments have encountered problems such as small profits in their development. Starting from the background of the development of long-term lease apartments, this study classified the main types of long-term lease apartments, analyzed the four profit models of comprehensive profit, expansion of rent difference, REITs and value-added services based on their business models, and proposed corresponding suggestions on the profitability of long-term lease apartments according to the current situation of profit difficulty of long-term lease apartments and the lack of profit models.