Modeling heterogeneous behaviors with different strategies in a terrorist attack

Existing simulations of terrorist attacks do not consider individual variations.To overcome this lim-itation,we propose a framework to model heterogeneous behavior of individuals during terrorist attacks.We constructed an emotional model that integrated personality and visual perception for pedestrians.The emotional model was then integrated with pedestrian relationship networks to establish a decision-making model that sup-ported pedestrians’altruistic behaviors.A mapping model has been developed to correlate antisocial personality traits with attack strategies employed by terrorists.Experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can generate practical heterogeneous behaviors that align with existing psychological research findings.

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Mediated by Exposure Level in French Civil Firefighters Following a Terrorist Attack: Some Hypotheses towards a Structural Model

To date, few studies have investigated the impact of organizational factors such as organizational status or the rank of firefighters on the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following a terrorist attack. To fill this gap in the scientific literature, this field study aimed to investigate the consequences of terrorist attacks on firefighters’ psychological health in terms of PTSD. Data were collected in France following two terrorist attacks. PTSD was assessed with the PCL-S (DSM-IV) 3 to 6 months after the events. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) with existing PTSD models were inconclusive, leading us to find a two-factor model via an exploratory factor analysis (EFA). A cluster analysis showed different symptom profiles that were influenced by the exposure level. Elements for a structural model explaining PTSD symptoms are proposed and suggest a central role of the exposure level. Firefighters I/II represented an at-risk sub-population, suggesting that PTSD was mainly experienced among those who performed tasks not common to their occupation.

Review on emergency medical response against terrorist attack

Terrorism is a global issue and a constant international threat. As a result, anti-terrorism and emergency response strategies are tasks of critical importance that have a direct impact on the national security of every country in the world. This paper reviews new characteristics of international anti-terrorism measures and offers an in-depth reflection on emergency medical response countermeasures; additionally, this paper presents the goals of related research, which include: 1) to present a model of a highly efficient medical response command; 2) to introduce the pre-planning phases of the emergency medical response; 3) to establish a response system capable of handling various types of terror attacks; 4) to promote anti-terrorism awareness to the general public and emphasize its prevention; and 5) to continue basic investigations into emergency medical responses for various types of terrorist attacks(for example, the classifications and characteristics of new injuries, pathophysiology, prevention and treatment of the resultant stress disorders, improved high-efficiency medical response measures and equipment, etc.).

Epidemio-Clinical Profile of Psychotrauma in Military Victims of Terrorists Attacks in Benin in December 2021

Introduction: In December 2021, Beninese soldiers were victims of armed terrorist attacks. This study aims to determine the psychological impact of the events experienced on the victims in order to better prevent post-traumatic stress disorder. Materials and methods: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study conducted from December 13 to 14, 2021, i.e. 12 days after the oldest event and 4 days after the most recent. The experience of the event was assessed with the Peritraumatic Distress Inventory and the Peritraumatic Dissociation Experiences Questionnaire. Symptoms experienced in the hours and days after the event were assessed with the Revised Event Impact Scale. Results: 36 soldiers were included out of the 38 survivors, i.e. 94.73%. They were 51.43% victims of the night assault, 37.14% of the ambush on patrol and 11.43% of the explosion of vehicle on mine, all male. The average age was 31 years with extremes of 25 and 49 years. The 25 - 30 year olds predominated, 52.78%. 100% of soldiers had significant peritraumatic dissociation, of which 94.44% also had significant peritraumatic distress. 100% of the soldiers had manifestations of intrusion, 89% of manifestations of avoidance and 83% of manifestations of hyperexcitation. 88.89% had an index for acute stress including 100% of victims of night assault and vehicle explosion on mine. Conclusion: This study shows a high prevalence of peritraumatic reactions, recognized factors favoring post-traumatic stress disorder, and the interest of their evaluation for medical and psychological help adapted to the victims.

Forensic odontology identification response to terrorist attacks in Paris November 2015

The terrorist attacks of November 2015 led to the immediate death of 129 victims admitted to the Legal and Forensic Medicine Institute of Paris,including 41 unidentified.During the Disaster Victim Identification(DVI)operations,22 bodies were examined by the postmortem(PM)dental team with the aim of establishing PM odontograms.At the same time,the dental expert in the antemortem(AM)unit collected a large number of dental files,progressively filtered as the list of missing persons became reduced.Feedback from these events has highlighted the difficulties of implementing the DVI chain principles in a legal framework,published the day before the attacks,and also the technical complexity of collecting dental data on a week end of terror.The return on experience after this event has represented a paradigm shift on previous methods of DVI in Paris and even more in France.Indeed,the victim identification procedure was redesigned,integrating new technical means such as a CT scan directly on spot,allowing the extraction of maxillofacial data as soon as possible in order to support the PM dental examination team.Moreover,the National Dental Council proceeded to the overall remodeling of the dental identification unit,which is composed of trained members,from local,regional and national aspects.These forensic experts are dedicated,at the request of the legal authorities,to DVI operations and deployed throughout the country capable of managing AM and PM data.This unit aims also to share experiences and awarenessraising among health professionals and investigators in order to optimize a better submission of AM elements and also to enhance the major interest of odontology as a primary identifier in disaster.

Agent-based modeling of emergency evacuation in a railway station square under sarin terrorist attack

Evacuation modeling is a promising measure to support decision making in scenarios such as flooding,explosion,terrorist attack and other emergency incidents.Given the special attention to the terrorist attack,we build up an agent-based evacuation model in a railway station square under sarin terrorist attack to analyze such incident.Sarin dispersion process is described by Gaussian puff model.Due to sarin’s special properties of being colorless and odorless,we focus more on the modeling of agents’perceiving and reasoning process and use a Belief,Desire,Intention(BDI)architecture to solve the problem.Another contribution of our work is that we put forward a path planning algorithm which not only take distance but also comfort and threat factors into consideration.A series of simulation experiments demonstrate the ability of the proposed model and examine some crucial factors in sarin terrorist attack evacuation.Though far from perfect,the proposed model could serve to support decision making.

An overview of forensic operations performed following the terrorist attacks on November 13,2015,in Paris

On the evening of November 13,2015,the city of Paris and its surroundings was hit by a series of attacks committed by terrorist groups,using firearms and explosives.The final toll was 140 people deceased(130 victims and 10 terrorists or their relatives)and more than 413 injured,making these attacks the worst mass killings ever recorded in Paris in peacetime.This article presents the forensic operations carried out at the Medicolegal Institute of Paris(MLIP)following these attacks.A total of 68 autopsies of bodies or body fragments and 83 external examinations were performed within 7 days,and the overall forensic operations(including formal identification of the latest victims)were completed 10 days after the attacks.Over this period,156 body presentations(some bodies were presented several times)were provided to families or relatives.Regarding the 130 civilian casualties,129 died from firearm wounds and one died from blast injuries after an explosion.Of the 10 terrorists or their relatives who were killed,eight died from suicide bombing,one was shot by police and one died from crush injuries due to partial collapse of a building following the police raid against a terrorist’s hideout after the attacks.All mass shootings were perpetrated with AK-47 or Zastava M70 assault rifles using 7.62mm39mm cartridges.In the case of ballistic injuries,death was most often obviously caused by craniocerebral injuries,extensive organ lacerations and/or massive haemorrhage.Among the terrorists killed by bombing,the lesion patterns were body transection,multiple amputations,extreme organ lacerations and the presence of foreign bodies owing to the shrapnel load(steel nuts,glass fragments)or the explosive charge fastening system of the devices.This discussion highlights the particular difficulties of interpretation encountered within the framework of ballistic injuries,a conclusion that should lead to a modest and realistic approach in these exceptional situations where forensic operations involve a very large number of victims in a constrained time.

Belgium experience in disaster victim identification applied in handling terrorist attack at Brussels Airport 2016

The Belgian disaster victim identification(DVI)team is involved in many investigations in our country.Indeed,this specialized team of the federal police oversees searching for and investigating criminally buried dead bodies,identification of unknown putrefied corpses,and more.The Belgian DVI team also assists with the identification of victims of mass disasters(natural,accidental,and mass murders).In this article,we consider the contributions of different teams(forensic pathology,anthropology,and odontology,federal police,and crime scene investigation)both on the scene of the attack at the Brussels National Airport(Zaventem)and in the laboratory work(autopsies,sample studies).

Identifying terrorist attack victims

The terrorist attacks that occurred in France in 2015 and 2016,which had many victims,proved that it is essential to identify victims following the methodology developed by International Criminal Police Organization(INTERPOL)for such events.Initially designed for natural disasters,this approach must be strictly respected should a terrorist attack occur.This includes the specific collection of bodies and body parts,as well as the setup of an antemortem unit,postmortem unit,and Identification Commission.This commission is made up of specialists and will make decisions on the basis of primary identifying elements(fingerprints,DNA,dental records)and/or secondary identifying elements(other distinctive and particularly discriminating signs).A multidisciplinary team,combining specifically trained police officers and scientists,must provide a reliable and consolidated list of deceased people based on biometric elements cross checked with elements from the investigations.Any list of names generated on another basis should be excluded.Identification of the deceased by relatives(visual recognition),even if the bodies do not appear mutilated and/or decayed,should be avoided to avert erroneous death announcements,body presentations,or even burials or cremations.Similarly,identifying victims only on the basis of their personal effects(such as an identity card)must be absolutely avoided.All bodies,even those whose identities seem obvious to the first responders or to the relatives,must be registered as“X”during the crime scene search and properly identified according to the INTERPOL protocol.The same protocol should be applied to unconscious injured people.Considering the expectations of our modern society for rapid information circulation and quick responses from the authorities,the French team has made a few adjustments to speed up the identification process without compromising its integrity.Validated and supported by both the French judicial and administrative authorities in the light of the experience of the November 2015 attacks in Paris,this innovative method proved its effectiveness during the Nice attack in July 2016.It can only be successful in a context where all the individuals involved in the crisis,up to the highest authorities,understand it,support it,and relay it in the best interest of the victims’families.

反恐医学的形成演化、研究进展与面临的挑战

进入21世纪后,恐怖袭击事件不断发生,袭击方式日趋多样化,造成的伤亡后果也越来越严重。有别于普通的群体性伤亡事件,恐怖袭击事件伤员救治在现场环境、伤员群体、损伤类型等方面都有着特殊性,各国医疗机构在有效应对恐怖袭击伤员救治过程中逐渐形成了一个新的医学领域——反恐医学。近年来,反恐医学在应急预案、检伤分类、医疗救援响应、模拟演练等方面都积累了大量的经验,取得了丰富的研究成果,但同时,仍然面临许多严峻的挑战。文章通过对反恐医学的形成与研究进展、医疗救援应对恐怖袭击的实践应用及面临的挑战进行综述,以期为我国医疗救援系统更好地应对恐怖袭击提供借鉴和参考。

基于风险的城市目标反恐安防策略优化方法

国际安全环境发生重大变化的新形势下,城市涉恐安全面临严峻挑战。基于风险理论,构建了城市目标遭受恐怖袭击风险描述和安防策略优化函数,提出了定量的城市目标反恐安防策略优化方法。并以某高铁站为例,通过模型分析、数据比较和优化反馈,获得其遭受恐怖袭击风险评估、现有安防措施有效性和策略优化结论,验证了方法的有效性,为解决城市涉恐安全问题提供决策和技术支撑。

基于威胁度评价的巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭击事件空间分布特征研究

基于巴基斯坦境内2011—2020年恐怖袭击事件数据信息,利用量化评估方法计算恐怖袭击事件的威胁度,采用核密度、空间自相关、Gi*指数以及新兴时空热点等分析方法,研究巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭击事件的空间演变特征。研究表明:巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭击事件按威胁度从低到高可分为五个等级,各等级在空间分布特征上具有一致性。2011—2020年巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭击事件呈现显著的空间聚集性,在聚集区域上主要分为三个核心活跃区,即白沙瓦、奎达、卡拉奇。恐怖袭击事件的热点区域主要集中在这三个核心活跃区,无冷点区域。恐怖袭击事件的新兴时空热点模式主要以连续热点和持续的热点为主并且相对稳定,同样分布在三个核心活跃区附近,冷点区域大部分以连续冷点的形式出现,新增冷点则主要出现在马拉坎附近区域。

《北京公约》新增犯罪行为所涉罪名探析

面对国际航空运输面临的新风险与新威胁的变化,《北京公约》对1971年《蒙特利尔公约》及其机场议定书规定的航空犯罪行为类别进行了系统更新。为了推进《北京公约》在中国获批后与国内立法的有效衔接,有必要对新增犯罪行为所涉的《中华人民共和国刑法》罪名进行探讨。对此,就国际公约规定的犯罪行为与《中华人民共和国刑法》衔接中存在的方式、适用理论和差异性等问题,以及《北京公约》对新型犯罪行为、威胁行为、参与犯罪的规范等进行分析。同时,对照《中华人民共和国刑法》的规定,探讨每类行为可能涉及的罪名以及罪名认定的要点、难点。

连环式恐怖袭击防控探究

连环式恐怖袭击是除独狼式恐怖袭击、协同式恐怖袭击、团队(体)式恐怖袭击、模仿式恐怖袭击、跨境式恐怖袭击外,恐怖主体用以宣传恐怖思想、实施恐怖袭击、获取恐怖收益的重要恐怖袭击模式。从理论和实践层面系统分析连环式恐怖袭击的主体构成、目标确定、手段选择、武器使用、后果预设等共同特征;探索连环式恐怖袭击在袭击主体、袭击对象、袭击工具等维度的防控难点;从降低袭击主体衍生度、提升袭击对象抗逆力、中和袭击工具适配性等层面,强化防控连环式恐怖袭击政策措施的有效性,能够丰富恐怖袭击模式研究体系,有利于提升防控连环式恐怖袭击的能力,有利于恐怖袭击治理工作的系统性提升。

恐怖袭击下地铁隧道结构爆炸响应与防护对策

探讨了恐怖袭击下地铁隧道结构爆炸响应的研究手段、地铁隧道结构的运动与内力响应、毁伤效应以及恐怖爆炸防护对策.研究发现,管片接头对隧道结构刚度和整体性的弱化效应是导致地铁隧道结构的位移、速度、加速度和主应力响应强于整体现浇隧道结构的根本原因.炸药与隧道结构底部的距离越小,隧道结构的位移响应越明显.炸药当量增大不仅提高了隧道结构的峰值加速度,而且改变了隧道结构拱腰处峰值加速度的方向.地铁隧道恐怖爆炸防护应从降低恐怖爆炸事故发生概率以及降低恐怖爆炸事故危害两个方面进行开展.非对称多爆源同步和非同步起爆工况下的地铁隧道结构爆炸响应研究以及基于数值分析和机器学习算法预测的简明实用设计公式的构建是值得重视的未来研究方向.

城市地铁恐怖袭击事件应急能力综合评价

为科学评估城市地铁应对恐怖袭击事件的应急能力水平,提高城市地铁应急体系建设,在统筹考虑应急能力指标因素关联性和评价过程中模糊性和随机性问题的基础上,提出基于二元语义决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)-结构熵权法(SEWM)结合的城市地铁恐怖袭击事件应急能力云模型。首先,基于应急管理的全过程均衡视角,构建城市地铁恐怖袭击事件应急能力评价指标体系;其次,运用二元语义DEMATEL-SEWM法,计算评价指标权重系数,客观反映评价指标间关联性和专家判断差异性对权重的影响;然后,运用云模型算法计算评价指标云数字特征值,绘制综合评价云图,结合组合模糊贴近度方法确定应急能力评价等级;最后,应用该方法综合评价Q市地铁恐怖袭击事件应急能力。结果表明:Q市地铁应急能力一级指标云相似度为0.826、0.48、0.705、0.379,评价等级均为较高,综合评价云相似度为0.68,评价等级为较高,评价结果与实际调研结果基本一致,证明该评价指标体系和模型具有一定的适用性和科学性,可为城市地铁应对恐怖袭击事件应急能力评价提供理论参考。

政治风险的跨国动态溢出效应——基于溢出指数模型的实证研究

本研究运用Diebold和Yilmaz提出的溢出指数模型,计算了全球22个主要经济体1984~2020年的总体和方向性政治风险溢出效应,并重点剖析了中国与其他国家的政治风险关联结构。研究结果表明:政治风险通过政治、经济、社会、文化等直接和间接联系进行跨国传播,平均总溢出指数为45.16%;政治风险溢出强度在金融危机和恐怖袭击等全球重大经济和政治事件期间显著升高,主要国家的边际净溢出指数和边际总溢出指数大幅增加;各国的政治风险溢出指数比溢入指数波动幅度更大,而发展中国家的溢出和溢入水平均略高于发达国家;中国政治风险的溢出和溢入效应均排名靠后,但在其加入WTO之后以及全球金融危机期间出现波动高峰;在所有国家中,澳大利亚、印度、日本与中国有着较强的政治风险双向溢出关系,南非受到中国政治风险较大的溢出影响,而瑞士、阿根廷和西班牙是中国政治风险的较大输入性来源。

考虑恐怖袭击模式的行人应急疏散模拟

为研究突发恐怖袭击情境下的人员疏散,建立了一种考虑恐怖袭击模式的行人疏散模型。模型中恐怖分子可采取袭击最近行人和袭击人群两种策略;通过仿真分析不同袭击模式和疏散场景下的疏散时间、人员伤亡及位置分布。结果表明:行人在疏散中需要保持合适的逃生意向。恐怖分子初始位置距离出口越近,所造成的伤亡越大且疏散时间越长。出口位置对疏散的影响与恐怖袭击策略及出口宽度密切相关。当恐怖分子袭击人群时,障碍物横向排布导致疏散时间增加,而人员伤亡下降。当恐怖分子袭击最近行人时,障碍物的存在会造成疏散延误。当恐怖分子数量较少时,袭击人群策略造成的伤亡较大,而当其数量较多时,袭击最近行人的策略危害更大。