Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events and Their Teleconnections to Large-scale Ocean-atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Huaihe River Basin,China During 1959–2019

Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.

Relationship Between Gene-Phenotype and Clinical Manifestations of Chromosomal Copy Number Variations Indicated by Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing

Objective:To analyze the clinical value of non-invasive prenatal testing(NIPT)in detecting chromosomal copy number variations(CNVs)and to explore the relationship between gene expression and clinical manifestations of chromosomal copy number variations.Methods:3551 naturally conceived singleton pregnant women who underwent NIPT were included in this study.The NIPT revealed abnormalities other than sex chromosome abnormalities and trisomy 13,18,and 21.Pregnant women with chromosome copy number variations underwent genetic counseling and prenatal ultrasound examination.Interventional prenatal diagnosis and chromosome microarray analysis(CMA)were performed.The clinical phenotypes and pregnancy outcomes of different prenatal diagnoses were analyzed.Additionally,a follow-up was conducted by telephone to track fetal development after birth,at six months,and one year post-birth.Results:A total of 53 cases among 3551 cases showed chromosomal copy number variation.Interventional prenatal diagnosis was performed in 36 cases:27 cases were negative and 8 were consistent with the NIPT test results.This indicates that NIPT’s positive predictive value(PPV)in CNVs is 22.22%.Conclusion:NIPT has certain clinical significance in screening chromosome copy number variations and is expected to become a routine screening for chromosomal microdeletions and microduplications.However,further interventional prenatal diagnosis is still needed to identify fetal CNVs.

An Intercomparison of Rules for Testing the Significance of Coupled Modes of Singular Value Decomposition Analysis

This paper clarifies the essence of the significance test of singular value decomposition analysis （SVD）, and investigates four rules for testing the significance of coupled modes of SVD, including parallel analysis, nonparametric bootstrap, random-phase test, and a new rule named modified parallel analysis. A numerical experiment is conducted to quantitatively compare the performance of the four rules in judging whether a coupled mode of SVD is significant as parameters such as the sample size, the number of grid points, and the signal-to-noise ratio vary. The results show that the four rules perform better with lower ratio of the number of grid points to sample size. Modified parallel analysis and nonparametric bootstrap perform best to abandon the spurious coupled modes, but the latter is better than the former to retain the significant coupled modes when the sample size is not much larger than the number of grid points. Parallel analysis and random-phase test are robust to abandon the spurious coupled modes only when either （1） the observations at the grid points are spatially uncorrelated, or （2） the coupled signal is very strong for parallel analysis and is not weak for random-phase test. The reasons affecting the accuracy of the test rules are discussed.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF TESTING PREOPERATIVE VISUAL FUNCTION IN CATARACT USING LASER INTERFEROMETRIC VISUAL ACUITY AND ERG

Tests of preoperative visual function and prediction of postoperative E chart visual acuity(ECVA) using laser interferometric visual acuity(LIVA) and electroretinogram(ERG) were performed in 16 cases(19 eyes) of cataract. The results showed that the coincident rate between preoperative LIVA and postoperative ECVA was 63.2%, and there was a parallel correlation between preoperative amplitude of photopic ERG b-wave and postoperative ECVA in 79.0% of the eyes. Comparing these two methods, the test of LIVA ...

The Statistical Significance Test of Regional Climate Change Caused by Land Use and Land Cover Variation in West China

The West Development Policy being implemented in China is causing significant land use and land cover （LULC） changes in West China. With the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database （GLCCD） that characterizes the lower boundary conditions, the regional climate model RIEMS-TEA is used to simulate possible impacts of the significant LULC variation. The model was run for five continuous three-month periods from 1 June to 1 September of 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997, and the results of the five groups are examined by means of a student t-test to identify the statistical significance of regional climate variation. The main results are： （1） The regional climate is affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed. （2） The integrated impact of the LULC variation on regional climate is not only limited to West China where the LULC varies, but also to some areas in the model domain where the LULC does not vary at all. （3） The East Asian monsoon system and its vertical structure are adjusted by the large scale LULC variation in western China, where the consequences are the enhancement of the westward water vapor transfer from the east oast and the relevant increase of wet-hydrostatic energy in the middle-upper atmospheric layers. （4） The ecological engineering in West China affects significantly the regional climate in Northwest China, North China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; there are obvious effects in South, Northeast, and Southwest China, but minor effects in Tibet.

Analysis of the Maximum Consecutive Precipitation Variation in Liaoning Artificial Precipitation Test Area

According to the daily precipitation data in artificial precipitation season during May to September from 1961 to 2008 in Liaoning Province,the maximum consecutive precipitation in the artificial precipitation test area is studied based on the maximum consecutive precipitation from May to September in 48 years.The results shows that the period of maximum consecutive precipitation in each month is different,and the variance trends of maximum consecutive precipitation in May,July,August and September are decreasing,while the variance trend of maximum consecutive precipitation in June is increasing.

Genetic variation and selection of introduced provenances of Siberian Pine(Pinus sibirica) in frigid regions of the Greater Xing'an Range,Northeast China

Siberian Pine （Pinus sibirica） is an ecologically and eco-nomically important species in pristine forests throughout northern Rus-sia. Four provenances of P. sibirica were introduced from Mongolia and Russia to the Greater Xing’an Range （the Daxing’anling）, northeast China in 1993. The aim of this research was to study genetic variation and selection of the introduced four Pinus sibirica provenances. Heights （H）, basal diameters （BD）, survival rates （SR） and crown lengths （CL） of different families were measured as primary outcomes in different growth years. Results of data analyses demonstrated high coefficients of phenotypic variation （PCV） and heritability （H2） for H, BD and CL at 18 years after introduction. PCV and H2 increased with age. Correlations of＆amp;nbsp;growth traits between any two growth years were all significantly positive, but the correlation coefficient was smaller when the growth year interval was larger. Correlations between H and the original environment factors decreased gradually, indicating that with long-term subsistence in the new environment, the influence of the source environment declined. Colligation of multiple traits to estimate provenances showed that Novosibirsk, Tomsk, and Altai Mountains had higher survival rates and biomass, and proved more suitable for introduction and plantation in the Greater Xing’an Range in China.

The trend on runoff variations in the Lhasa River Basin

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.

The seasonal variations in the significant wave height and sea surface wind speed of the China's seas

Long-term variations in a sea surface wind speed （WS） and a significant wave height （SWH） are associated with the global climate change, the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters, and an ocean resource exploitation, and other activities. The seasonal characteristics of the long-term trends in China＇s seas WS and SWH are determined based on 24 a （1988-2011） cross-calibrated, multi-platform （CCMP） wind data and 24 a hindcast wave data obtained with the WAVEWATCH-III （WW3） wave model forced by CCMP wind data. The results show the following. （1） For the past 24 a, the China＇s WS and SWH exhibit a significant increasing trend as a whole, of 3.38 cm/（s.a） in the WS, 1.3 cm/a in the SWH. （2） As a whole, the increasing trend of the China＇s seas WS and SWH is strongest in March-April-May （MAM） and December-January-February （DJF）, followed by June-July-August （JJA）, and smallest in September-October-November （SON）. （3） The areal extent of significant increases in the WS was largest in MAM, while the area decreased in JJA and DJF; the smallest area was apparent in SON. In contrast to the WS, almost all of China＇s seas exhibited a significant increase in SWH in MAM and DJF; the range was slightly smaller in JJA and SON. The WS and SWH in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, the Tsushima Strait, the Taiwan Strait, the northern South China Sea, the Beibu Gull and the Gulf of Thailand exhibited a significant increase in all seasons. （4） The variations in China＇s seas SWH and WS depended on the season. The areas with a strong increase usually appeared in DJF.

Long-term variation of storm surge-associated waves in the Bohai Sea

When investigating the long-term variation of wave characteristics as associated with storm surges in the Bohai Sea,the Simulating Waves Nearshore(SWAN)model and Advanced CIRCulation(ADCIRC)model were coupled to simulate 32 storm surges between 1985 and 2014.This simulation was validated by reproducing three actual wave processes,showing that the simulated significant wave height(SWH)and mean wave period agreed well with the actual measurements.In addition,the long-term variations in SWH,pattems in SWH extremes along the Bohai Sea coast,the 100-year retum period SWH extreme distribution,and waves conditional probability distribution were calculated and analyzed.We find that the trend of SWH extremes in most of the coastal stations was negative,among which the largest trend was-0.03 m/a in the western part of Liaodong Bay.From the 100-year return period of the SWH distribution calculated in the Gumbel method,we find that the SWH extremes associated with storm surges decreased gradually from the center of the Bohai Sea to the coast.In addition,the joint probability of wave and surge for the entire Bohai Sea in 100-year return period was determined by the Gumbel logistic method.We therefore,assuming a minimum surge of one meter across the entire Bohai Sea,obtained the spatial SWH distribution.The conclusions of this study are significant for offshore and coastal engineering design.

The Relationships between Variations of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Key Ocean Areas and the Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in China

The relationships between variations of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTVA) in the key ocean areas and the precipitation / temperature anomalies in China are studied based on the monthly mean sea surface temperature data from January 1951 to December 1998 and the same stage monthly mean precipitation/ temperature data of 160 stations in China. The purpose of the present study is to discuss whether the relationship between SSTVA and precipitation / temperature is different from that between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and precipitation/ temperature, and whether the uncertainty of prediction can be reduced by use of SSTVA. The results show that the responses of precipitation anomalies to the two kinds of tendency of SSTA are different. This implies that discussing the effects of two kinds of tendency of SSTA on precipitation anomalies is better than just discussing the effects of SSTA on precipitation anomalies. It helps to reduce the uncertainty of prediction. The temperature anomalies have more identical re-sponses to the two kinds of tendency of SSTA than the precipitation except in the western Pacific Ocean. The response of precipitation anomalies to SSTVA is different from that to SSTA, but there are some similarities. Key words Variations of sea surface temperature anomalies - Precipitation anomalies - Temperature anomalies - Statistical significance test Sponsored jointly by the “ National Key Developing Program for Basic Sciences” (G1998040900) Part I and the Key Program of National Nature Science Foundation of China “ Analyses and Mechanism Study of the Regional Climatic Change in China” under Grant No.49735170.

Effects of precipitation variation on severe acid rain in southern China

Acid rain has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China since the 1980s, but little is known about the effects of the climatic change in regional precipitation on the temporal and spatial variability of severe acid rain. We present the effects of the regional precipitation trend change on the area and intensity of severe acid rain in southern China, and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of SO2 and NO2 concentrations are analyzed on the basis of SO2 and NO2 column concentration data. The results are as follows. （1） The emission levels of SO2 and NO2 have reached or passed the precipitation scavenging capacity in parts of southern China owing to the emission totals of SOz and NO2 increasing from 1993 to 2004. （2） Notable changes in the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain occurred mainly in the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1993-2004. With an abrupt change in 1999, the severe acid rain regions were mainly located in central and western China during 1993-1999 and moved obviously eastward to the south of the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River with the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain increasing significantly from 2000 to 2004. （3） The spatial distribution and variation in the seasonal precipitation change rate of more than 10 mm/10a are similar to those of severe acid rain in southern China. An abrupt change in 1999 is seen for winter and summer precipitation, the same as for the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain in southern China. The significant increase in summer storm precipitation from 1991 to 1999 mitigated the annual precipitation acidity in the south of the Yangtze River and reduced the area of severe acid rainfall. On the other hand, the decrease in storm rainfall in summer expanded the area of severe acid rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River in 2000-2006. Therefore, the change in seasonal precipitation is an important factor in the severe acid rain regions moving eastward and expanding in southern China.

Long-term variations in runoff of the Syr Darya River Basin under climate change and human activities

In this study,we analyzed the hydrological and meteorological data from the Syr Darya River Basin during the period of 1930–2015 to investigate variations in river runoff and the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff.The Syr Darya River,which is supplied by snow and glacier meltwater upstream,is an important freshwater source for Central Asia,as nearly half of the population is concentrated in this area.River runoff in this arid region is sensitive to climate change and human activities.Therefore,estimation of the climatic and hydrological changes and the quantification of the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff are of great concern and important for regional water resources management.The long-term trends of hydrological time series from the selected 11 hydrological stations in the Syr Darya River Basin were examined by non-parametric methods,including the Pettitt change point test and Mann-Kendall trend tests.It was found that 8 out of 11 hydrological stations showed significant downward trends in river runof f.Change of river runoff variations occurred in the year around 1960.Moreover,during the study period(1930–2015),annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and annual potential evapotranspiration in the river basin increased substantially.We employed hydrological sensitivity method to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.It was estimated that human activities accounted for over 82.6%–98.7%of the reduction in river runoff,mainly owing to water withdrawal for irrigation purpose.The observed variations in river runoff can subsequently lead to adverse ecological consequences from an ecological and regional water resources management perspective.

Research on variation and significance of immune cells, inflammatory factors and coagulation functions in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis

Objective:To investigate variation of T lymphocyte subsets, inflammatory factors and coagulation functional indexes at different stages for patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and significance of discussion and treatment on mechanism of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods:48 cases of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis at progressive stage treated in our hospital were selected as the progression group, and 50 cases of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis at remission stage were selected as the remission group. Meanwhile, 48 cases of healthy population in our hospital were selected as the control group. Variations and significances of T lymphocyte subsets (CD3+, CD4+, CD8+ and CD4+/CD8+), inflammatory factors [interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-10 (IL-10), interferon-γ (IFN-γ) and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α)] and coagulation function [Fg (fibrinogen), TT (thrombin time), PLT (platelet) and D-D (D-dimer)] were analyzed.Results: Coagulation function (Fg, TT, PLT and D-D), T lymphocyte subsets CD8+ and inflammatory factors (IL-2, IL-10 and TNF-α) in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in progression group were significantly higher than in healthy population of control group (P<0.05). T lymphocyte subsets (CD3+, CD4+ andCD4+/CD8+) and IFN-γ were significantly lower than in healthy population of control group (P<0.05). Coagulation function (Fg, TT, PLT and D-D), T lymphocyte subsets CD8+ and inflammatory factors (IL-2, IL-10 and TNF-α) in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in remission group were significantly lower than in patients of progression group (P<0.05), but significantly higher than in healthy population of control group (P<0.05). T lymphocyte subsets (CD3+, CD4+ and CD4+/CD8+) and IFN-γ in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in remission group were significantly higher than in patients of progression group (P<0.05), but significantly lower than in healthy population of control group (P<0.05).Conclusions:Significant variations appeared on T lymphocyte subsets, inflammatory factors and coagulation functional indexes at different stages for patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, which had important significance on discussion and treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis mechanism.

Improved significance testing of wavelet power spectrum near data boundaries as applied to polar research

When one applies the wavelet transform to analyze finite-length time series, discontinuities at the data boundaries will distort its wavelet power spectrum in some regions which are defined as a wavelength-dependent cone of influence （COI）. In the COI, significance tests are unreliable. At the same time, as many time series are short and noisy, the COI is a serious limitation in wavelet analysis of time series. In this paper, we will give a method to reduce boundary effects and discover significant frequencies in the COI. After that, we will apply our method to analyze Greenland winter temperature and Baltic sea ice. The new method makes use of line removal and odd extension of the time series. This causes the derivative of the series to be continuous （unlike the case for other padding methods）. This will give the most reasonable padding methodology if the time series being analyzed has red noise characteristics.

A New Method of Significance Testing for Correlation-Coefficient Fields and Its Application

Correlation-coefficient fields are widely used in short-term climate prediction research. The most frequently used significance test method for the correlation-coefficient field was proposed by Livezey, in which the number of significantcorrelation lattice(station) points on the correlation coherence map is used as the statistic. However, the method is based on two assumptions:(1) the spatial distribution of the lattice(station) points is uniform;and(2) there is no correlation between the physical quantities in the correlation-coefficient field. However, in reality, the above two assumptions are not valid.Therefore, we designed a more reasonable method for significance testing of the correlation-coefficient field. Specifically, a new statistic, the significant-correlation area, is introduced to eliminate the inhomogeneity of the grid(station)-point distribution, and an empirical Monte Carlo method is employed to eliminate the spatial correlation of the matrix.Subsequently, the new significance test was used for simultaneous correlation-coefficient fields between intensities of the atmospheric activity center in the Northern Hemisphere and temperature/precipitation in China. The results show that the new method is more reasonable than the Livezey method.

Δ<i>I_DDQ</i>Testing of a CMOS Digital-to-Analog Converter Considering Process Variation Effects

In this paper, we present the implementation of a built-in current sensor (BICS) which takes into account the increased background current of defect-free circuits and the effects of process variation on ΔIDDQ testing of CMOS data converters. A 12-bit digital-to-analog converter (DAC) is designed as the circuit under test (CUT). The BICS uses frequency as the output for fault detection in CUT. A fault is detected if it causes the output frequency to deviate more than ±10% from the reference frequency. The output frequencies of the BICS for various (MOSIS) model parameters are simulated to check for the effect of process variation on the frequency deviation. A set of eight faults simulating manufacturing defects in CMOS data converters are injected using fault-injection transistors and tested successfully.

Application of Equality Test of Coefficients of Variation to the Heteroskedasticity Test

The presence of heteroskedasticity in a considered regression model may bias the standard deviations of parameters obtained by the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. In this case, several hypothesis tests on the model under consideration may be biased, for example, CHOW’s coefficient stability test (or structural change test), Student’s t-test and Fisher’s F-test. Most of the heteroscedasticity tests in the literature are based on the comparison of variances. Despite the multiplication of equality tests of coefficients of variation (CVs) that have appeared in the literature, to our knowledge, the first and only use of the coefficient of variation in the detection of heteroskedasticity was offered by Li and Yao in 2017. Thus, this paper offers an approach to determine the existence of heteroskedasticity by a test of equality of coefficients of variation. We verify by a Monte Carlo robustness and performance test that our method seems even better than some tests in the literature. The results of this study contribute to the exploitation of the statistical measurement of CV dispersion. They help technicians economists to better verify their hypotheses before making a scientific decision when making a necessary forecast, in order to contribute effectively to the economic and sustainable development of a company or enterprise.

Quasi-Binomial Regression Model for the Analysis of Data with Extra-Binomial Variation

Objectives: Developing inference procedures on the quasi-binomial distribution and the regression model. Methods: Score testing and the method of maximum likelihood for regression parameters estimation. Data: Several examples are included, based on published data. Results: A quasi-binomial model is used to model binary response data which exhibit extra-binomial variation. A partial score test on the binomial hypothesis versus the quasi-binomial alternative is developed and illustrated on three data sets. The extended logit transformation on the binomial parameter is introduced and the large sample dispersion matrix of the estimated parameters is derived. The Nonlinear Mixed Procedure (NLMIXED) in SAS is shown to be very appropriate for the estimation of nonlinear regression.

Temperature Variation and Mutation Analysis over the Past 59 Years in Shenyang

In this paper,based on the observation data of air temperature during 1951-2009 in Shenyang,the interannual and interdecadal variation of annual average temperature,maximum and minimum temperature in Shenyang were conducted the statistical analysis by means of linear trend estimation and mutation detection by using Mann-Kendall method.As was demonstrated in the results,the annual average temperature,maximum and minimum temperature in Shenyang showed an upward trend,whose linear tendency rate was 0.231,0.181 and 0.218 respectively.The increment trend of annual average temperature,maximum and minimum temperature was extremely clear.The increase in minimum temperature was more significant than that in mean temperature and maximum temperature.The abrupt change point of annual mean temperature in Shenyang appeared in 1981;the abrupt change point of annual mean maximum temperature appeared in 1994;the annual mean minimum temperature underwent mutation in 1978.