Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2月北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2022年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.

Influence of Irregular Coastlines on a Tornadic Mesovortex in the Pearl River Delta during the Monsoon Season. Part Ⅰ:Pre-storm Environment and Storm Evolution

The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective weather.This two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this region.Part I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm evolutions.The rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold outflows.This intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and convergence.Based on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple point.Developed over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level mesovortex.It is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical simulations.The findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear environment.Improved knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.

Physical and mechanical properties and microstructures of submarine soils in the Yellow Sea

In recent years,the exploration of seabed has been intensified,but the submarine soils of silt and sand in the Yellow Sea area have not been well investigated so far.In this study,the physical and mechanical properties of silt and sand from the Yellow Sea were measured using a direct shear apparatus and their microstructures were observed using a scanning electron microscope.The test results suggest that the shear strength of silt and sand increases linearly with the increase of normal stress.Based on the direct shear test,the scanning electron microscope was used to observe the section surface of sand.It is observed that the section surface becomes rough,with many“V”‐shaped cracks.Many particles appear on the surface of the silt structure and tend to be disintegrated.The X‐ray diffraction experiment reveals that the sand and silt have different compositions.The shear strength of sand is slightly greater than that of silt under high stress,which is related to the shape of soil particles and the mineral composition.These results can be a reference for further study of other soils in the Yellow Sea;meanwhile,they can serve as soil parameters for the stability and durability analyses of offshore infrastructure construction.

Spatial patterns of zooplankton abundance,biovolume,and size structure in response to environmental variables:a case study in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

The Yellow Sea(YS)and East China Sea(ECS)are highly dynamic marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean.To gain an in-depth understanding of zooplankton community structure,zooplankton abundance,biovolume,and size structure in summer 2017 in the YS and ECS were assessed using ZooScan imaging analysis.Zooplankton abundance and biovolume ranged 2.94–1187.14 inds./m^(3)and 3.13–3438.51 mm^(3)/m^(3),respectively.Based on the biovolume data of the categorized size classes of 26 identified taxonomic groups,the zooplankton community was classified into five groups,and each group was coupled with distinctive oceanographic features.Under the influence of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass,the Yellow Sea offshore group featured the lowest bottom temperature(10.84±3.42℃)and the most abundant Calanoids(mainly in the 2–3 mm size class).In the Yellow Sea inshore group,Hydrozoans showed the largest biovolume and dominated in the 3–4-mm and>5-mm size classes.The East China Sea offshore group,which was affected by the Kuroshio Branch Current,featured high temperature and salinity,and the lowest bottom dissolved oxygen(2.58±0.5 mg/L).The lowest values of zooplankton abundance and biovolume in the East China Sea offshore group might be attributed to the bottom dissolved oxygen contents.The East China Sea inshore group,which was mainly influenced by the Zhejiang-Fujian Coastal Current and Changjiang Diluted Water,was characterized by high chlorophyll a and the largest biovolume of carnivorous Siphonophores(280.82±303.37 mm^(3)/m^(3)).The Changjiang River estuary offshore group showed the most abundant Cyclopoids,which might be associated with the less turbid water mass in this region.Seawater temperature was considered the most important factor in shaping the size compositions of Calanoids in different groups.

Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Cooling in Typhoon Events Passing the Kuroshio Current

The aim of this study is to investigate the sea surface temperature(SST) cooling as typhoons pass the Kuroshio Current.A numerical circulation model,denoted as the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model(sbPOM),was used to simulate the SST,which includes four wave-induced effect terms(i.e.,radiation stress,nonbreaking waves,Stokes drift,and breaking waves) simulated using the third-generation wave model,called WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ(WW3).The significant wave height(SWH) measurements from the Jason-2 altimeter were used to validate the WW3-simulated results,yielding a root mean square error(RMSE) of less than 0.50 m and a correlation coefficient(COR) of approximately 0.93.The water temperature measured from the Advanced Research and Global Observation Satellite was applied to validate the model simulation.Accordingly,the RMSE of the SST is 0.92℃ with a COR of approximately 0.99.As revealed in the sbPOM-simulated SST fields,a reduction in the SST at the Kuroshio Current region was observed as a typhoon passed,although the water temperature of the Kuroshio Current is relatively high.The variation of the SST is consistent with that of the current,whereas the maximum SST lagged behind the occurrence of the peak SWH.Moreover,the Stokes drift plays an important role in the SST cooling after analyzing four wave-induced terms in the background of the Kuroshio Current.The sensitivity experiment also showed that the accuracy of the water temperature was significantly reduced when including breaking waves,which play a negative role in the inside part of the ocean.The variation in the mean mixing layer depth(MLD) showed that a typhoon could enhance the mean MLD in the Kuroshio Current area in September and October,whereas a typhoon has little influence on the mean MLD in the Kuroshio Current area in May.Moreover,the mean MLD rapidly decreased with the weakening of the strong wind force and wave-induced effects when a typhoon crossed the Kuroshio Current.

Spatio-temporal variability of surface chlorophyll a in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea based on reconstructions of satellite data of 2001-2020

Chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration is a primary indicator for marine environmental monitoring.The spatio-temporal variations of sea surface Chl-a concentration in the Yellow Sea(YS)and the East China Sea(ECS)in 2001-2020 were investigated by reconstructing the MODIS Level 3 products with the data interpolation empirical orthogonal function(DINEOF)method.The reconstructed results by interpolating the combined MODIS daily+8-day datasets were found better than those merely by interpolating daily or 8-day data.Chl-a concentration in the YS and the ECS reached its maximum in spring,with blooms occurring,decreased in summer and autumn,and increased in late autumn and early winter.By performing empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition of the reconstructed data fields and correlation analysis with several potential environmental factors,we found that the sea surface temperature(SST)plays a significant role in the seasonal variation of Chl a,especially during spring and summer.The increase of SST in spring and the upper-layer nutrients mixed up during the last winter might favor the occurrence of spring blooms.The high sea surface temperature(SST)throughout the summer would strengthen the vertical stratification and prevent nutrients supply from deep water,resulting in low surface Chl-a concentrations.The sea surface Chl-a concentration in the YS was found decreased significantly from 2012 to 2020,which was possibly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).

An improved algorithm for retrieving thin sea ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean from SMOS and SMAP L-band radiometer data

The aim of this study was to develop an improved thin sea ice thickness(SIT)retrieval algorithm in the Arctic Ocean from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity and Soil Moisture Active Passive L-band radiometer data.This SIT retrieval algorithm was trained using the simulated SIT from the cumulative freezing degree days model during the freeze-up period over five carefully selected regions in the Beaufort,Chukchi,East Siberian,Laptev and Kara seas and utilized the microwave polarization ratio(PR)at incidence angle of 40°.The improvements of the proposed retrieval algorithm include the correction for the sea ice concentration impact,reliable reference SIT data over different representative regions of the Arctic Ocean and the utilization of microwave polarization ratio that is independent of ice temperature.The relationship between the SIT and PR was found to be almost stable across the five selected regions.The SIT retrievals were then compared to other two existing algorithms(i.e.,UH_SIT from the University of Hamburg and UB_SIT from the University of Bremen)and validated against independent SIT data obtained from moored upward looking sonars(ULS)and airborne electromagnetic(EM)induction sensors.The results suggest that the proposed algorithm could achieve comparable accuracies to UH_SIT and UB_SIT with root mean square error(RMSE)being about 0.20 m when validating using ULS SIT data and outperformed the UH_SIT and UB_SIT with RMSE being about 0.21 m when validatng using EM SIT data.The proposed algorithm can be used for thin sea ice thickness(<1.0 m)estimation in the Arctic Ocean and requires less auxiliary data in the SIT retrieval procedure which makes its implementation more practical.

Paleogene transgression process and environmental evolution in the deepwater area of the Baiyun Depression in the northern South China Sea

Multiple borehole samples are collected from the Baiyun Depression in deep-water area of the northern South China Sea(SCS)in an effort to reconstruct transgression processes during the Paleogene based on palynalgal analysis.This study indicates that the Baiyun Depression generated a large group of palynopore assemblages and fluvial/lacustrine-related algae during the early and middle Eocene when the Wenchang Formation was deposited.The entire depression was dominated by fluvial and lacustrine facies before transgression.Its eastern and southeastern sags transitioned to shallow marine environment by generating a large abundance of marine dinoflagellates during the Enping deposition of the late Eocene.Meanwhile,the southern uplift zone simply yielded fluvial/lacustrine-related palynopores and algae,and was dominated by the fluvial and lacustrine environment during the early stage of the Enping Formation,prior to shifting into transitional setting in the later period.Northwestern sags remained extensive fluvial and delta facies without existence of marine dinoflagellates.It was until the depositional stage of the Zhuhai Formation(Oligocene)that the overall depression was strongly impacted from transgression process.Both eastern and southeastern sags were mainly under deep marine setting on a continental slope while northwestern and southern areas developed transitional facies.Although distribution and accumulation patterns varied greatly among sub-sags,the overall Baiyun Depression was characterized by widespread development of marine dinoflagellates.It should be noted that the northwestern sag also partly generated large-scale river delta deposits.Due to the eustatic rise and change of SCS spreading axis,the overall Baiyun Depression was mostly influenced by the deep marine environment on a continental slope during the early Miocene.Both northwestern sag and southern uplift zone were found plentiful marine dinoflagellates.In summary,transgression initiated from the eastern and southeastern Baiyun Depression before subsequently progressing into the farther west.Evolution of transgression process is also greatly consistent with the gradual westward expansion of the SCS.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Roadway Design and Evacuation Routes in Delaware

As the global temperature continues to increase, the sea level continues to rise at a rapid rate that has never been seen before. This becomes an issue for many facets of life but one of the most impacted is the transportation infrastructure. Many people living in low elevation coastal areas can become trapped by flooding with no way in or out. With Delaware being a coastal state, this would affect a large portion of the population and will have detrimental effects over time if nothing is done to combat sea level rise. The issue with sea level rise in transportation is that once the roads become flooded, they become virtually unusable and detour routes would be needed. If all the roads in a coastal area were to be affected by sea level rise, the options for detours would become limited. This article looks at direct solutions to combat sea level rise and indirect solutions that would specifically help transportation infrastructure and evacuation routes in Delaware. There is not one solution that can fix every problem, so many solutions are laid out to see what is applicable to each affected area. Some solutions include defense structures that would be put close to the coast, raising the elevation of vulnerable roads throughout the state and including pumping stations to drain the water on the surface of the road. With an understanding of all these solutions around the world, the ultimate conclusion came in the form of a six-step plan that Delaware should take in order to best design against sea level rise in these coastal areas.

U-Pb zircon geochronology of basaltic pyroclastic rocks from the basement beneath the Xisha Islands in the northwestern South China Sea and its geological significance

As one of the micro-blocks dispersed in the South China Sea(SCS), the basement of the Xisha Islands has rarely been drilled because of the thick overlying Cenozoic sediments, which has led to a confused understanding of the pre-Cenozoic basement of the Xisha Islands. Well CK-1, a kilometer-scale major scientific drill in the Xisha Islands in the northwestern SCS, penetrated thick reefal limestone(0–888.4 m) and the underlying basement rocks(888.4–901.4 m). In this study, we present the zircon U-Pb ages of basement basaltic pyroclastic rocks from Well CK-1 in the Xisha Islands of the northwestern SCS to investigate the basement nature of the Xisha microblock. The basement of Well CK-1 consists of basaltic pyroclastic rocks on the seamount. The zircon grains yielded apparent ages ranging from ca. 2 138.9 Ma to ca. 36 Ma. The old group of zircon grains from Well CK-1 was considered to be inherited zircons. Two Cenozoic zircons gave a weighted mean 206Pb/238U age of(36.3 ± 1.1) Ma,Mean Squared Weighted Deviations(MSWD) = 1.2, which may represent the maximum age of the volcano eruption. The Yanshanian inherited zircons(116.9–105.7 Ma and 146.1–130.2 Ma) from Well CK-1 are consistent with the zircons from Well XK-1, indicating that the basement of Chenhang Island may be similar to that of Well XK-1. We propose that the Xisha micro-block may have developed on a uniform Late Jurassic metamorphic crystalline basement, intruded by Cretaceous granitic magma.

Morphological and Sulfur-Isotopic Characteristics of Pyrites in the Deep Sediments from Xisha Trough,South China Sea

Pyrite is one of the common authigenic minerals in marine sediments.Previous studies have shown that the morphological and isotopic characteristics of pyrite are closely related to the geochemical environment where it is formed.To better understand the for-mation mechanism of authigenic pyrite,we analyzed the isotopic composition,morphology,and distribution of pyrite in the sediment at 500m below the seafloor from Xisha Trough,South China Sea.Mineral morphologies were observed by scanning electron micros-copy and Raman spectrography.X-Ray computed tomography was applied to measure the particle size of pyrite.The size of pyrite crystals in the matrix sediment mainly ranged between 25 and 65µm(av.ca.40µm),although crystals were larger(av.ca.50μm)in the veins.The pyrites had a fine-grained truncated octahedral shape with occasionally well-developed growth steps,which implies the low growth rate and weak anaerobic oxidation of methane-sulfate reduction when pyrite was formed.Theδ^(34)S values of pyrites ranged from+20.8‰Vienna-defined Canyon Diablo Troilite(V-CDT)to+33.2‰V-CDT and from+44.8‰V-CDT to+48.9‰,which suggest two growth stages.In the first stage,with the continuous low methane flux,the pyrite possibly formed in an environment with good access to seawater.In the second stage,the pyrites mainly developed in sediment fractures and appeared in veins,probably due to the limited availability of sulfate.The less exposure of pyrite to the environment in the second stage was probably caused by sediment accumulation or perturbation.In this study,an episodic pyritization process was identified,and the paleoenvironment was reconstructed for the sediment investigated.

Trend of Storm Surge Induced by Typical Landfall Super Typhoons During 1975–2021 in the Eastern China Sea

Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.

Spatial correlations in time and frequency domains between chlorophyll-a concentration and environmental factors in the Bohai Sea

Based on the reconstructed MODIS data and ECMWF reanalysis data from 2003 to 2021,spatial correlations between chlorophyll a(Chl a)and sea surface temperature(SST),photosynthetically available radiation(PAR),aerosol optical thickness(AOT),and wind speed(WS)in the Bohai Sea were analyzed from the perspective of time domain and frequency domain.Results indicate that the frequency domain analysis was more conducive to revealing the correlations between Chl a and environmental factors.The spatial pattern of time-domain correlations was similar to the isobaths of the Bohai Sea,which was positive in shallow waters and negative in deep waters for SST,PAR,and AOT,and was reversed for WS.Frequency-domain correlations were obtained by performing Fourier Transform and were higher than correlations in time domain.The spatial distributions indicated that the effects of SST and PAR on Chl a were greater than AOT and WS in the Bohai Sea.Additionally,cross-spectrum analysis was applied to explore the response relationships.A depth-dependent pattern was shown in correlations and time lags,indicating that the influential mechanism of environmental factors on Chl-a concentration is related to seawater depth.

Tetrabromobisphenol A and hexabromocyclododecane in sediments from the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Estuary and South China Sea

Marine sediments collected from the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Estuary(ZRE) and South China Sea(SCS) were utilized to study the occurrence and spatial distribution of tetrabromobisphenol A(TBBPA) and hexabromocyclododecane(HBCDD).The levels of TBBPA and HBCDD in sediments ranged from not detected(nd) to 6.14 ng/g dry weight(dw) and nd to 0.42 ng/g dw.TBBPA concentrations in marine sediments were substantially higher than HBCDD.The concentrations of TBBPA and HBCDD in the ZRE sediments were significantly greater than those in the SCS.α-HBCDD(48.7%) and γ-HBCDD(46.2%) were the two main diastereoisomers of HBCDD in sediments from the ZRE,with minor contribution of β-HBCDD(5.1%).HBCDD were only found in one sample from the northern SCS.The enantiomeric fraction of α-HBCDD in sediments from the ZRE was obviously greater than 0.5,indicating an accumulation of(+)-α-HBCDD.The enantiomers of HBCDD were not measured in sediments from the SCS.This work highlighted the environmental behaviors of TBBPA and HBCDD in marine sediments.

Satellite observations of coastal upwelling in the northern Arafura Sea

Coastal upwelling is significant for marine ecosystems by lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the euphotic zone,thereby increasing primary and secondary productivity.The satellite observations show that the northern Arafura Sea(NAS),especially in the coastal region,features high chlorophyll-a(chl-a)concentrations,implying a strong coastal upwelling.However,coastal upwelling in the NAS has not received much attention.Based on a semi-automatic image processing technology,the seasonal and interannual variability of coastal upwelling in the NAS are investigated in this study using satellite-observed sea surface temperature(SST)and wind data.The results suggest that there are seasonal coastal upwelling events in the NAS modulated by upwelling-favorable southeast monsoon(SEM).The annual mean days,mean area,and annual mean intensity of coastal upwelling events during the SEM season are 92 days,6514 km^(2),and-5.31×10^(5),respectively,while the corresponding values during the northwest monsoon(NWM)season are 32 days,5569 km^(2),and-1.41×10^(5).It is also found that the SEM coastal upwelling in the NAS displays prominent interannual variability.The strong upwelling events are found in 2010,2013,2016,and 2017 when the southeast monsoon winds were weaker.Further analysis suggests that at the interannual scale,the upwelling index(UI)averaged in the SEM season is negatively correlated with that of three upwelling indicators.This can be attributed to the limitation of onshore geostrophic flow which is evidenced by the negative correlation between the UI and the alongshore difference in sea surface height.This study highlights the important role of the southeast monsoon in the temporal variability of coastal upwelling in the NAS.

Analysis on the causes of massive stranding of Yellow Sea green tide on Lianyungang and Rizhao coasts in 2022

In 2022,Yellow Sea green tide caused by Ulva prolifera reached a historic minimum and the coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula were less affected.However,the largest amount of seaweed biomass has been washed ashore on Lianyungang and Rizhao coasts since 2015.We studied the development pattern of Yellow Sea green tide in 2022,and analyzed the key environmental factors on the growth and drifting,then discussed the possible reasons that resulted in the massive stranding of green tide biomass in Lianyungang and Rizhao.Results show under the combined influence of the east to southeast winds and currents with shoreward anomalies,green tide drifted to the coastal waters between Shandong and Jiangsu provinces and the distribution areas located westward compared with previous years(2008–2021).Floating U.prolifera rafts from the coastal waters of Binhai and Sheyang drifted continuously into the coastal waters of Lianyungang and Rizhao,providing important supplements for Yellow Sea green tide.Because green tide in 2022 distributed close to the coastal waters,the abundant nutrients might support their continuous high growth rate.In addition,the amount of rainfall around Shandong Peninsula from late June to early July were significantly higher than in previous years,which might promote the development of green tide to some extent.

New record of the feather star Palaeocomatella hiwia(Echinodermata:Crinoidea:Comatulida)from Zhenbei Seamount in South China Sea:new insights into the taxonomic position of Palaeocomatella

One specimen belonging to the family Comatellinae was collected from the Zhenbei Seamount(332.5–478.2 m)in the South China Sea in July 2022.Based on the morphological characters,the specimen was identified as Palaeocomatella hiwia McKnight,1977.It is first recorded from China Sea and redescribed in detail.This specimen differs from the original description from New Zealand for never showing syzygy at br4+5 or br5+6 on interior and br1+2 on exterior arms.However,it is much conform to the redescription to specimens from Indonesia,with only differences in position of the second syzygy and distalmost pinnule comb.Specimen is deposited in the Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences.Phylogenetic analyses based on the mitochondrial c oxidase subunit I(COI)and 16S rRNA genes indicated that P.hiwia was nested within the tribe Phanogeniini and clustered with Aphanocomaster pulcher.Furthermore,P.hiwia showed same morphological features in terms of mouth placement,comb location,and number of comb teeth rows as other genera of Phanogeniini.Therefore,we suggest that the genus Palaeocomatella should be put in the tribe Phanogeniini.

Evaluation and projection of marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best performance.The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend.Under various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes.This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after 2040.Furthermore,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods.However,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP scenarios.During the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations.In contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.However,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.

The impact of typhoons on the biogeochemistry of dissolved organic matter in eutrophic bays in northwestern South China Sea

Highly productive estuaries facilitate intense decomposition of dissolved organic matter(DOM) as a carbon source.However,the specific impacts of typhoons on DOM decomposition in eutrophic bays remain unclear.To address this issue,we investigated the spectral characteristics of DOM before and after Typhoon Ewiniar in Zhanjiang B ay,a eutrophic semi-enclosed bay in the northwestern South China Sea.The results revealed that intense microbial decomposition of DOM occurred during the pre-typhoon period because high nutrient inputs facilitated the mobilization of DOM in the bay.However,the intrusion of external seawater induced by the typhoon diluted the nutrient levels in Zhanjiang B ay,reducing the impact of microbial decomposition on DOM during the post-typhoon perio d.Nevertheless,the net addition of DOM occurred in Zhanjiang Bay during the post-typhoon period,possibly because of the decomposition of particulate organic matter(POM) and desorption of particulate matter.In addition,an increase in apparent oxygen utilization,a decrease in DO saturation and the reduced level of Chl a indicated that organic matter(OM) decomposition was enhanced and OM decomposition shifted to POM decomposition in Zhanjiang Bay after the typhoon.Overall,our study highlighted the shift in the intense OM decomposition from DOM to POM decomposition before and after typhoons in eutrophic bays,providing new insights into the response of typhoons to biogeo chemistry.

The Predictability Limit of Oceanic Mesoscale Eddy Tracks in the South China Sea

Employing the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) technique, this study assesses the quantitative predictability limit of oceanic mesoscale eddy (OME) tracks utilizing three eddy datasets for both annual and seasonal means. Our findings reveal a discernible predictability limit of approximately 39 days for cyclonic eddies (CEs) and 44 days for anticyclonic eddies (AEs) within the South China Sea (SCS). The predictability limit is related to the OME properties and seasons. The long-lived, large-amplitude, and large-radius OMEs tend to have a higher predictability limit. The predictability limit of AE (CE) tracks is highest in autumn (winter) with 52 (53) days and lowest in spring (summer) with 40 (30) days. The spatial distribution of the predictability limit of OME tracks also has seasonal variations, further finding that the area of higher predictability limits often overlaps with periodic OMEs. Additionally, the predictability limit of periodic OME tracks is about 49 days for both CEs and AEs, which is 5-10 days higher than the mean values. Usually, in the SCS, OMEs characterized by high predictability limit values exhibit more extended and smoother trajectories and often move along the northern slope of the SCS.