In this paper, a two\|sector growth model is given. The labor force transfer process from agricultural sector to industrial sector is exogenous determined. By introducing the labor force transferring function, a two\|...In this paper, a two\|sector growth model is given. The labor force transfer process from agricultural sector to industrial sector is exogenous determined. By introducing the labor force transferring function, a two\|dimension nonautonomous differential equation is obtained. The results of the model manifest that the labor force transfer delays industrial sector growth and accelerates the agricultural sector growth. It is proved that the solution of the model is asymptotic stable. By the numerical analysis, the economic growth and labor force transfer is presented under the specific parameters.展开更多
In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is,...In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is, there is a tendency of neglecting and downplaying GDP while making fewer efforts to develop economy in some regions that oppose GDP worship and irrational pursuit of and competition for GDP,, which deserves our full attention. We further propose in this paper that the decline of China＇s potential economic growth rate should keep a gradual process and the government should favor consumption while not overlooking investment, given that a certain amount of moderate investment will remain the key impetus to China＇s economic growth over a certain period in the future.展开更多
Despite a drop in global competitiveness ranking, China is still a key driving force in the global economy THE latest edition of the World Economic Forum＇s Global competitiveness Report sees a decline in the rankings...Despite a drop in global competitiveness ranking, China is still a key driving force in the global economy THE latest edition of the World Economic Forum＇s Global competitiveness Report sees a decline in the rankings for china, from 26th to 29th in the Global competitiveness展开更多
In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investm...In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.展开更多
By constructing a multi-sector DSGE model embedded with tax wedge, housing mortgage fi nancing constraints and bank supervision constraints, this paper investigates the long-term impact of two types of real estate tax...By constructing a multi-sector DSGE model embedded with tax wedge, housing mortgage fi nancing constraints and bank supervision constraints, this paper investigates the long-term impact of two types of real estate tax policies on economic growth and fi nancial stability, which are the unifi ed tax base assessment ratio and differential tax base assessment ratio for two major housing owners (household and enterprises). It also compares and analyzes the short-term impact of the above two types of real estate tax reform schemes on economic fl uctuations and fi nancial risks under the background of potential fi nancial risks facing China’s economy. The results show that: in the long run, the real estate tax will help economic growth, boost household consumption, and effectively suppress the excessive increase in household leverage and asset bubble risk through the “suppression effect” of housing prices and the “redistribution effect” on housing. In the short run, the real estate tax will not intensify the impact of systemic fi nancial risks, so it will not have an adverse impact on the maintenance of fi nancial stability. Different real estate tax policies have different impact on economic growth and fi nancial stability. Compared with the real estate tax with unifi ed tax base assessment ratio, the real estate tax with differential tax base assessment ratio is better for the coordinated development of financial activities and the real economy in the long term and play a stronger role in economic growth, which contributes to the unity of “stable growth”, “risk prevention” and “reform”.展开更多
This study's primary purpose was to explore the role of tourism development in enhancing well-being in a highly populated developing economy by focusing on the case study of Pakistan Several econometric techniques...This study's primary purpose was to explore the role of tourism development in enhancing well-being in a highly populated developing economy by focusing on the case study of Pakistan Several econometric techniques and approaches were used on annual time series data covering the 1990-2016 period to investigate the causal relationship of well-being with tourism development,political stability,economics,and population growth.The findings suggested that tourism development enhances economic growth and well-being,hence providing support for the tourism-led growth hypothesis However,population growth and political instability exhibited a negative relationship with well-being;in addition,the level of political stability determined tourism activities.Hence,this study is unique due to its specific focus on the role of political stability and tourism development in the enhancement of wellbeing in a highly populated developing economy Moreover,the practical implications of the study have been provided in light of the main findings.展开更多
文摘In this paper, a two\|sector growth model is given. The labor force transfer process from agricultural sector to industrial sector is exogenous determined. By introducing the labor force transferring function, a two\|dimension nonautonomous differential equation is obtained. The results of the model manifest that the labor force transfer delays industrial sector growth and accelerates the agricultural sector growth. It is proved that the solution of the model is asymptotic stable. By the numerical analysis, the economic growth and labor force transfer is presented under the specific parameters.
文摘In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is, there is a tendency of neglecting and downplaying GDP while making fewer efforts to develop economy in some regions that oppose GDP worship and irrational pursuit of and competition for GDP,, which deserves our full attention. We further propose in this paper that the decline of China＇s potential economic growth rate should keep a gradual process and the government should favor consumption while not overlooking investment, given that a certain amount of moderate investment will remain the key impetus to China＇s economic growth over a certain period in the future.
文摘Despite a drop in global competitiveness ranking, China is still a key driving force in the global economy THE latest edition of the World Economic Forum＇s Global competitiveness Report sees a decline in the rankings for china, from 26th to 29th in the Global competitiveness
文摘In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.
基金“Impact and Mechanism of Central Bank Digital Currency on Monetary Policy Transmission”project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72103084)“Mechanism and Impact Analysis of Central Bank Digital Currency,Financial Intermediary and Monetary Policy Transmission”project in humanities and social sciences supported by the MOE of China(21YJC790167)“Financial Risk Prevention for Real Estate Fluctuations under Downward Economy and COVID-19 Shock”project in humanities and social sciences of institutions of higher learning supported by Jiangxi Province(JJ20215).
文摘By constructing a multi-sector DSGE model embedded with tax wedge, housing mortgage fi nancing constraints and bank supervision constraints, this paper investigates the long-term impact of two types of real estate tax policies on economic growth and fi nancial stability, which are the unifi ed tax base assessment ratio and differential tax base assessment ratio for two major housing owners (household and enterprises). It also compares and analyzes the short-term impact of the above two types of real estate tax reform schemes on economic fl uctuations and fi nancial risks under the background of potential fi nancial risks facing China’s economy. The results show that: in the long run, the real estate tax will help economic growth, boost household consumption, and effectively suppress the excessive increase in household leverage and asset bubble risk through the “suppression effect” of housing prices and the “redistribution effect” on housing. In the short run, the real estate tax will not intensify the impact of systemic fi nancial risks, so it will not have an adverse impact on the maintenance of fi nancial stability. Different real estate tax policies have different impact on economic growth and fi nancial stability. Compared with the real estate tax with unifi ed tax base assessment ratio, the real estate tax with differential tax base assessment ratio is better for the coordinated development of financial activities and the real economy in the long term and play a stronger role in economic growth, which contributes to the unity of “stable growth”, “risk prevention” and “reform”.
文摘This study's primary purpose was to explore the role of tourism development in enhancing well-being in a highly populated developing economy by focusing on the case study of Pakistan Several econometric techniques and approaches were used on annual time series data covering the 1990-2016 period to investigate the causal relationship of well-being with tourism development,political stability,economics,and population growth.The findings suggested that tourism development enhances economic growth and well-being,hence providing support for the tourism-led growth hypothesis However,population growth and political instability exhibited a negative relationship with well-being;in addition,the level of political stability determined tourism activities.Hence,this study is unique due to its specific focus on the role of political stability and tourism development in the enhancement of wellbeing in a highly populated developing economy Moreover,the practical implications of the study have been provided in light of the main findings.
