A Method Fusing Conventional Wind Field with Cloud Motion Wind and Its Application in Location Forecast of the Severe Convection

Based on the fast algorithm of meteorological satellite guide wind vector tracing, cloud motion wind vector is calculated. According to the different characteristics of cloud motion wind field and sounding wind field, a method which fuses conventional data with unconventional data based on variation principle is presented. The fundamental is constructing a cost function that makes the value approach conventional data and the gradient approach unconventional data. Using this method, the conventional wind and the cloud motion wind are fused. The fused wind field has high resolu- tion. Its wind direction approaches cloud motion wind which indicates move direction of the synoptic system, and its velocity approaches conventional wind which indicates move velocity of the synoptic system. The wind field data are used for short-time forecast of severe convective weather location, which gets a good result.

A STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF FY-2E CLOUD DRIFT WIND HEIGHT REASSIGNMENT IN NUMERICAL FORECAST OF TYPHOON CHANTHU(1003) TRACK

In this paper, we first analyzed cloud drift wind(CDW) data distribution in the vertical direction, and then reassigned the height of every CDW in the research domain in terms of background information, and finally, conducted contrast numerical experiments of assimilating the CDW data before and after reassignment to examine the impacts on the forecast of the track of Typhoon Chanthu(1003) from 00:00(Coordinated Universal Time) 21 July to 00:00 UTC23 July, 2010. The analysis results of the CDW data indicate that the number of CDWs is mainly distributed in the midand upper-troposphere above 500 h Pa, with the maximum number at about 300 h Pa. The height reassigning method mentioned in this work may update the height effectively, and the CDW data are distributed reasonably and no obvious contradiction occurs in the horizontal direction after height reassignment. After assimilating the height-reassigned CDW data, especially the water vapor CDW data, the initial wind field around Typhoon Chanthu(1003) became more reasonable, and then the steering current leading the typhoon to move to the correct location became stronger. As a result, the numerical track predictions are improved.

Evaluation and Forecasting of Wind Energy Investment Risk along the Belt and Road Based on a Novel Hybrid Intelligent Model

The timely and effective investment risk assessment and forecasting are of great significance to ensure the investment safety and sustainable development of wind energy along the Belt and Road.In order to obtain the scientific and real-time forecasting result,this paper constructs a novel hybrid intelligent model based on improved cloud model combined with GRA-TOPSIS and MBA-WLSSVM.Firstly,the factors influencing investment risk of wind energy along the Belt and Road are identified fromthree dimensions:endogenous risk,exogenous risk and process risk.Through the fuzzy threshold method,the final input index system is selected.Secondly,the risk evaluation method based on improved cloud model andGRA-TOPSIS is proposed.Thirdly,a modern intelligent model based on MBA-WLSSVMis designed.In modified bat algorithm(MBA),tent chaotic map is utilized to improve the basic bat algorithm,while weighted least squares support vector machine(WLSSVM)adopts wavelet kernel function to replace the traditional radial basis function to complete the model improvement.Finally,an example is given to verify the scientificity and accuracy of themodel,which is helpful for investors tomake fast and effective investment risk forecasting of wind energy along the Belt and Road.The example analysis proves that the proposedmodel can provide reference and basis for investment corpus to formulate the investment strategy in wind energy along the Belt and Road.

Discussion Measurement Models and Algorithms of the Wind Vector Field Based on Satellite Images

This article aims to discuss the strike two-dimensional wind vector on geostationary satellite imageries. The magnitude and direction of the wind vector are decided by the moving speed of the clouds. First, based on the features of the cloud map, we extract the characteristics of clouds and establish matching model for the clouds image. Maximum correlation coefficient between the target modules and tracking module is obtained by using infrared brightness temperature cross-correlation coefficient method. Then, the beginning and end of the wind vector can be ascertained. Using the spherical triangles of the law of cosines, we determine the magnitude and direction of the wind vector.

Mathematical Modeling of the Influence of the Wind Field Structure in the Atmosphere on the Cloud Formation Processes

The state of the physics of convective clouds and cloud seeding is discussed briefly. It is noted that at the present time there is a transition from the stage of investigation of “elementary” processes in the clouds to the stage of studying the formation of macro- and microstructural characteristics of clouds as a whole, taking into account their system properties. The main directions of the development of cloud physics at the upcoming stage of its development are discussed. The paper points out that one of these areas is the determination of the structure-forming factors for the clouds and the study of their influence on their formation and evolution. It is noted that one of such factors is the interaction of clouds with their surrounding atmosphere, and the main method of studying its role in the processes of cloud formation is mathematical modeling. A three-dimensional nonstationary model of convective clouds is presented with a detailed account of the processes of thermohydrodynamics and microphysics, which is used for research. The results of modeling the influence of the wind field structure in the atmosphere on the formation and evolution of clouds are presented. It is shown that the dynamic characteristics of the atmosphere have a significant effect on the formation of macro- and microstructural characteristics of convective clouds: the more complex the structure of the wind field in the atmosphere (i.e., the more intense the interaction of the atmosphere and the cloud), the less powerful the clouds are formed.

DEVELOPING AND NON-DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS REVEALED BY HIGH DENSITY CLOUD MOTION WINDS

An algorithm for computation of cloud motion winds has been developed at the National Satellite Meteorological Center in China. Since 1997, it has been applied to calculate the cloud motion winds for a 1.25 lat. ×1.25 long. mesh over the northwest Pacific region with the satellite data from GMS-5. The development of the tropical cyclones is studied. It shows that the tropical cyclone is usually intrigued by the westerly jet streams at the upper levels of the troposphere, which may be caused by mid-latitude troughs well extending into the tropics. During the prime season of summer, the westerly flowing equatorward of the TUTT may also be a cause for the generation of typhoons.

Wind Motions around the Tropical Cirrus Using Simultaneous Radar and Lidar Observations over Gadanki (13.45°N, 79.18°E), India

The present study describes variation of peak linear depolarization ratio (LDR) with wind around the cloud altitude using simultaneous observation of winds and cirrus cloud for the first time using Indian MST radar and polarization lidar co-located over a low latitude station Gadanki (13.7°N and 79.2°E). Three different cases of passage of the cirrus at different altitudes are noticed, one during a North-East monsoon day and other two during South-West monsoon days. The zonal wind below the cloud height has shown similar variation with LDR during 02 November 2006 and the meridional wind within the cloud height during 25 July 2007 and 08 June 2006 has shown opposite variation with LDR. Even though there is a significant increase in zonal wind due to the existence of tropical easterly jet (TEJ) above cloud height during 25 July 2007 and 08 June 2006, also, the vertical wind is found to be continuously varying during 25 July 2007 and it is upward dominant in the initial stage and is mostly downward in the later stage of observation on 08 June 2006, there is a slight descent in cloud altitude only during 25 July 2007. Thus, the wind above the cloud height alone may not affect the ascent/descent of the cloud top altitude. The potential temperature gradient is high within the cloud heights when the cirrus present near the cold point tropopause indicates the maximum air-mass mixing near the tropopause.

Analysis of a Complex Weather Process and Services at Shanghai Pudong International Airport

A complex weather process at Shanghai Pudong International Airport during April 8-9 in 2017 was analyzed deeply to study the causes of low clouds and convective weather and how to provide services for control in the complex weather situation. The results showed that when clouds and visibility were low,the situation of wind fields should be analyzed carefully to forecast the weather more accurately. The actual situation of the weather was in line with the numerical forecast on the day,and numerical forecast had certain reference value for convection forecast. The prediction of cloud height was not as perfect as expected on the day,but corresponding services were provided to the regulatory agencies 3 h early,and they had sufficient time to make decisions. The meteorological services have also been well received by the regulatory authorities,which further explains the importance of forecast in advance.

Comparison Analysis of Continuous Severe Convection Weather in the West of Shandong Based on Multi-scale Data

Based on conventional observation data, NCEP reanalysis data, wind profiler radar, Doppler radar, and satellite cloud image data, two times of severe convection weather in the west of Shandong Province during June 13-14 in 2016 were analyzed. The results are shown as follows： firstly, the convection on the night of June 13 was stronger than that on the afternoon of June 14. The two times of severe convection weather generated under the circulation background of upper cold vortex. There was northwest air current at high altitudes and warm wet advection at low altitudes. Severe convection weather was triggered by low-level shear lines and surface convergence lines on June 13 and by weak cold air at 700 hPa on June 14 respectively. Secondly, there was certain water vapor transport and convergence before the occurrence of severe convection, and it was warm and wet at low altitudes but dry and cold at high altitudes; there was convergence at low altitudes and divergence at middle and high altitudes. 0 ℃ layer was at about 4 000 m, and-20 ℃ layer was at about 7 000 m. Thirdly, radar echo intensity was larger than 45 dBZ when severe convection happened, and it reached above 60 dBZ at an elevation of 1.5°, while middle strong echo zone overhung weak echo zone at low altitudes. Vertically integrated liquid（VIL） was up to 20 kg/m^2, and mesocyclone generated in strong echo zone; there was bow echo on the night of June 13, and VIL was higher than that on June 14. In wind profiler data, strong vertical wind shear and fluctuation of wind direction had denotative meaning to the occurrence of severe convection weather. Fourthly, hail, gale and other severe convection weather happened in front of long and narrow cold cloud zone and convective cloud clusters as well as in southwestern TBB gradient zone.

A Model Study of Three-Dimensional Wind Field Analysis from Dual-Doppler Radar Data

A three-dimensional wind field analysis sollware based on the Beigng-Gucheng dual-Doppler weather radar system has been built, and evaluated by using the numerical cloud model producing storm flow and hydrometeor fields. The effects of observation noise and the spatial distribution of wind field analysis error are also investigated.

Resilient Power Systems Operation with Offshore Wind Farms and Cloud Data Centers

To enhance the resilience of power systems with offshore wind farms(OWFs),a proactive scheduling scheme is proposed to unlock the flexibility of cloud data centers(CDCs)responding to uncertain spatial and temporal impacts induced by hurricanes.The total life simulation(TLS)is adopted to project the local weather conditions at transmission lines and OWFs,before,during,and after the hurricane.The static power curve of wind turbines(WTs)is used to capture the output of OWFs,and the fragility analysis of transmission-line components is used to formulate the time-varying failure rates of transmission lines.A novel distributionally robust ambiguity set is constructed with a discrete support set,where the impacts of hurricanes are depicted by these supports.To minimize load sheddings and dropping workloads,the spatial and temporal demand response capabilities of CDCs according to task migration and delay tolerance are incorporated into resilient management.The flexibilities of CDC’s power consumption are integrated into a two-stage distributionally robust optimization problem with conditional value at risk(CVaR).Based on Lagrange duality,this problem is reformulated into its deterministic counterpart and solved by a novel decomposition method with hybrid cuts,admitting fewer iterations and a faster convergence rate.The effectiveness of the proposed resilient management strategy is verified through case studies conducted on the modified IEEERTS 24 system,which includes 4 data centers and 5 offshore wind farms.

Momentum profile of aeolian saltation cloud

The momentum profile of an aeolian saltation cloud is poorly understood. In this paper, height profiles for saltation momentum are reconstructed for three particle-size populations at four wind velocities based on profiles for mean particle velocity and relative particle concentration of saltation cloud obtained using particle image velocimetry in a wind tunnel. The results suggest that the saltation momentum profiles are characterized by peak curves with a maximum at some height above the surface. The height of this maximum increases with increasing wind velocity, but decreases with increasing particle size. It is linearly correlated with average saltation height and is comparable with the results of numerical simulations in a previous study. Our results confirm that Bagnold’s kink is an important feature of wind velocity profiles modified by the presence of saltating particles and that the height of the kink is closely related to the average trajectories of the saltating particles.

The Physical Principles Elucidate Numerous Atmospheric Behaviors and Human-Induced Climatic Consequences

The principles that govern the operation of an open and a closed evaporator are relevant for the understanding of the open and “closed” Earth’s atmospheric behaviors, and are thus described. In these greenhouses, the water is included, otherwise the heat and mass balances do not match. It is incorrect to consider the radiation as the only energy transfer factor for an atmospheric warming. Demonstrations show that when the greenhouse effect and the cloud cover increase, the evaporation and the wind naturally decrease. Researchers did not understand why reductions in surface solar radiation and pan evaporation have been simultaneous with increased air temperature, cloudiness and precipitation for the last decades. It is an error to state that the evaporation increases based solely on the water and/or air temperatures increase. Also, researchers did not comprehend why in the last 50 years the clouds and the precipitation increased while the evaporation decreased and they named such understanding as the “evaporation paradox”, while others “found” “the cause” violating the laws of thermodynamics, but more precipitation is naturally conciliatory with less evaporation. The same principle that increases the formation of clouds may cause less rainfall. Several measurements confirm the working principles of greenhouses described in this paper. The hydrological cycle is analyzed and it was also put in form of equation, which analyses have never been done before. The human influence alters the velocity of the natural cycles as well as the atmospheric heat and mass balances, and the evaporation has not been the only source for the cloud formation. It is demonstrated that the Earth’s greenhouse effect has increased in some places and this proof is not based only on temperatures.

B-Spline曲线聚风装置直线翼垂直轴风力机启动性能数值模拟

为了提升直线翼垂直轴风力机的启动性能,基于B-Spline曲线生成方法,提出一种具有流线型轮廓的聚风装置,将其分别安装在风轮顶端和底端,用以提升风轮附近的来流风速,使风轮汲取更多风能,达到更易启动的特点.选取聚风装置的5个结构参数进行设计:聚风装置与风轮间隙距离ΔL、底圆半径R_(1)、顶圆半径R_(2)、入口角度α_(1)和出口角度α_(2).设计方法采用二次旋转正交组合筛选最优模型,通过三维数值模拟研究聚风装置参数对直线翼垂直轴风力机启动性能的影响,获得了最佳外形参数组合.此外,对有无加装聚风装置的直线翼垂直轴风力机进行了静态三维数值模拟.结果表明,通过添加具有外凸流线型轮廓的聚风装置,直线翼垂直轴风力机的启动性能有显著提升.在风速较低的情况下,性能改善更加明显.聚风装置可使直线翼垂直轴风力机的平均启动力矩系数最大增加38.8%,峰值平均启动力矩系数最大可增加31.2%.

基于变论域云PI的含风电负荷频率控制方法

随着风电渗透率不断提高,其不确定性严重影响了电力系统频率稳定。基于此问题,建立了含风电的互联电力系统负荷频率控制模型,其中风机通过附加下垂与虚拟惯性控制参与频率调节。在此基础上,为解决风电接入系统引起的频率波动问题,提出变论域云PI负荷频率控制策略,对云模型输入和输出论域动态调整。为避免增加控制器的复杂程度,基于函数形式设计论域的伸缩因子。最后,仿真结果表明,所设计的控制器能进一步提高云PI控制器的自适应能力,更好地处理风电不确定性对系统频率的影响。

SOME STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE APPLICATION OF JAPANESE GMS LOW CLOUD WINDS

A statistical study of GMS low cloud winds in January,April,July and October,1983 shows that on an average,there exist 223.5 low cloud winds over western North Pacific each synoptic time.The low cloud winds have a diurnal change with more low cloud winds at 12 Z than at 00 Z. The wind fields at 850 hPa over western North Pacific,with and without application of low cloud winds, have been analyzed by a successive correction scheme.The results indicate that the flow patterns without low cloud winds are considerably distorted from short of wind data over the oceanic region.On the con- trary,with application of low cloud winds,the flow patterns get much more improved over the oceanic region.

多源地基遥感资料在郑州强飑线天气预警中的应用

基于风廓线雷达、毫米波云雷达、微波辐射计、雨滴谱等地基遥感探测资料和常规探测资料,研究多源探测资料在郑州强飑线天气预警中的应用.结果表明:①风廓线雷达资料精细地呈现了飑线过程中冷暖平流及垂直风切变的演变,特别是监测到飑线形成前1 h对流层中低层西南急流形成并增厚,深层垂直风切变增强,利于飑线的形成和组织化.②毫米波云雷达产品显示,随着飑线系统移近,云系增多增厚并向下、向上扩展,云中的含水量增大,强反射率因子接地指示降水产生.③微波辐射计反演的温度、湿度及大气不稳定指数在对流发生前后变化特征显著,在飑线临近预警中有一定的参考价值.④雨滴谱数据显示直径2 mm以下的雨滴是此次飑线降水的主要贡献者.

基于经验挖掘与混合语言的海上风电制氢加氢港口选址研究

为辅助海上风电的加氢制氢港口选址决策问题,提出利用经验挖掘算法和混合语言型术语的多属性决策方法。首先,利用爬虫算法、TextRank算法、Word2Vec算法和Louvain算法对历史经验性文件进行挖掘、排序、构建词对和聚类,从而获取基于经验挖掘的属性集;其次,引入对偶自信语言,云模型和实数等语言术语兼顾定量和定性数据的表达,解决数据集转换失真问题;最后,引入标准化公式处理指标数据,获取综合排序结果,以海上风电的加氢制氢港口选址为案例,验证了方法的科学性和有效性。结果表明,考虑定性及定量评估,基于集中式制氢+液氢+购买/租赁船舶技术方案的选址方案A5综合最优,敏感性分析表明气氢储运技术搭配船舶运输是技术成熟度和经济性方面表现较好的技术方案。

基于云模型的风电机组出力异常监测方法

实时监测风电机组出力情况、及时发现机组问题,能够最大程度保障风电场经济效益。采用自适应Density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise(DBSCAN)算法提取风电机组正常状态下在风速–功率(v-P)坐标系中建立性能模型所需的数据。在监测阶段,在划分水平功率区间后利用马氏距离衡量监测数据与性能模型间残差,并将采用滑动窗口方法连续获取的残差子序列送入云模型进行模糊化评估,得出风电机组运行状态。结果云的变化表明,基于云模型的异常监测方法能真实客观反映机组运行状态,可为机组维护工作提供有效指导和建议。

基于专家PID控制的云水含量传感器设计

本文设计了一种基于热线法的便携式微型云水含量传感器。该传感器探头采用环形加热片和测温铂电阻的新结构,保证了加热的均匀性和测温的准确性。通过理论公式推导和流体仿真,传感器设计的可行性得到了进一步验证,并得出云水含量与加热片加热功率之间的函数关系。采用32位STM32F103C8T6芯片为核心,其性能保证了传感器系统的稳定性。通过专家PID控制算法实时控制传感器迎风面温度。仿真结果表明:专家PID系统的响应速度更快,适应性更强。为进行实验测试,搭建了风洞实验平台。通过实验测量,当测试云水含量值为0.5 g/m^(3)时,加热片加热功率为1.4 W,计算出实际值为0.58 g/m^(3),满足设计要求。