Assessing the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Droughts across Global Drylands

Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.

Methodology for local correction of the heights of global geoid models to improve the accuracy of GNSS leveling

At present,one of the methods used to determine the height of points on the Earth’s surface is Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)leveling.It is possible to determine the orthometric or normal height by this method only if there is a geoid or quasi-geoid height model available.This paper proposes the methodology for local correction of the heights of high-order global geoid models such as EGM08,EIGEN-6C4,GECO,and XGM2019e_2159.This methodology was tested in different areas of the research field,covering various relief forms.The dependence of the change in corrected height accuracy on the input data was analyzed,and the correction was also conducted for model heights in three tidal systems:"tide free","mean tide",and"zero tide".The results show that the heights of EIGEN-6C4 model can be corrected with an accuracy of up to 1 cm for flat and foothill terrains with the dimensionality of 1°×1°,2°×2°,and 3°×3°.The EGM08 model presents an almost identical result.The EIGEN-6C4 model is best suited for mountainous relief and provides an accuracy of 1.5 cm on the 1°×1°area.The height correction accuracy of GECO and XGM2019e_2159 models is slightly poor,which has fuzziness in terms of numerical fluctuation.

Genome-edited rabbits:Unleashing the potential of a promising experimental animal model across diverse diseases

Animal models are extensively used in all aspects of biomedical research,with substantial contributions to our understanding of diseases,the development of pharmaceuticals,and the exploration of gene functions.The field of genome modification in rabbits has progressed slowly.However,recent advancements,particularly in CRISPR/Cas9-related technologies,have catalyzed the successful development of various genome-edited rabbit models to mimic diverse diseases,including cardiovascular disorders,immunodeficiencies,agingrelated ailments,neurological diseases,and ophthalmic pathologies.These models hold great promise in advancing biomedical research due to their closer physiological and biochemical resemblance to humans compared to mice.This review aims to summarize the novel gene-editing approaches currently available for rabbits and present the applications and prospects of such models in biomedicine,underscoring their impact and future potential in translational medicine.

Fractal Fractional Order Operators in Computational Techniques for Mathematical Models in Epidemiology

New fractional operators, the COVID-19 model has been studied in this paper. By using different numericaltechniques and the time fractional parameters, the mechanical characteristics of the fractional order model areidentified. The uniqueness and existence have been established. Themodel’sUlam-Hyers stability analysis has beenfound. In order to justify the theoretical results, numerical simulations are carried out for the presented methodin the range of fractional order to show the implications of fractional and fractal orders.We applied very effectivenumerical techniques to obtain the solutions of themodel and simulations. Also, we present conditions of existencefor a solution to the proposed epidemicmodel and to calculate the reproduction number in certain state conditionsof the analyzed dynamic system. COVID-19 fractional order model for the case of Wuhan, China, is offered foranalysis with simulations in order to determine the possible efficacy of Coronavirus disease transmission in theCommunity. For this reason, we employed the COVID-19 fractal fractional derivative model in the example ofWuhan, China, with the given beginning conditions. In conclusion, again the mathematical models with fractionaloperators can facilitate the improvement of decision-making for measures to be taken in the management of anepidemic situation.

Construction of a Computational Scheme for the Fuzzy HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Saturated Incidence Rate

This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.

Probing signals of atmospheric gravity waves excited by the July 29,2021 M_(W8.2) Alaska earthquake

It is commonly believed that the atmosphere is decoupled from the solid Earth.Thus,it is difficult for the seismic wave energy inside the Earth to propagate into the atmosphere,and atmospheric pressure wave signals excited by earthquakes are unlikely to exist in atmospheric observations.An increasing number of studies have shown that earthquakes,volcanoes,and tsunamis can perturb the Earth's atmosphere due to various coupling effects.However,the observations mainly focus on acoustic waves with periods of less than 10 min and inertial gravity waves with periods of greater than 1 h.There are almost no clear observations of gravity waves that coincide with observations of low-frequency signals of the Earth's free oscillation frequency band within 1 h.This paper investigates atmospheric gravity wave signals within1 h of surface-atmosphere observations using the periodogram method based on seismometer and microbarometer observations from the global seismic network before and after the July 29,2021 Mw8.2Alaska earthquake in the United States.The numerical results show that the atmospheric gravity wave signals with frequencies similar to those of the Earth's free oscillations_0S_(2) and_0T_(2) can be detected in the microbaro meter observations.The results con firm the existence of atmospheric gravity waves,indicating that the atmosphere and the solid Earth are not decoupled within this frequency band and that seismic wave energy excited by earthquakes can propagate from the interior of the Earth to the atmosphere and enhance the atmospheric gravity wave signals within 1 h.

Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND Liver transplantation(LT)is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease.However,the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge.Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates.Traditionally,scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process.Nevertheless,the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning(ML)and artificial intelligence models.AIM To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT,comparing their performance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.METHODS Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines,we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database.Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year,age,or gender.Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English studies,review articles,case reports,conference papers,studies with missing data,or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.RESULTS Our search yielded a total of 64 articles,with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria.Among the selected studies,60.8%originated from the United States and China combined.Only one pediatric study met the criteria.Notably,91%of the studies were published within the past five years.ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values(ranging from 0.6 to 1)across all studies,surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems.Random forest exhibited superior predictive capabilities for 90-d mortality following LT,sepsis,and acute kidney injury(AKI).In contrast,gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease,pneumonia,and AKI.CONCLUSION This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT,marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Novel Investigation of Stochastic Fractional Differential Equations Measles Model via the White Noise and Global Derivative Operator Depending on Mittag-Leffler Kernel

Because of the features involved with their varied kernels,differential operators relying on convolution formulations have been acknowledged as effective mathematical resources for modeling real-world issues.In this paper,we constructed a stochastic fractional framework of measles spreading mechanisms with dual medication immunization considering the exponential decay and Mittag-Leffler kernels.In this approach,the overall population was separated into five cohorts.Furthermore,the descriptive behavior of the system was investigated,including prerequisites for the positivity of solutions,invariant domain of the solution,presence and stability of equilibrium points,and sensitivity analysis.We included a stochastic element in every cohort and employed linear growth and Lipschitz criteria to show the existence and uniqueness of solutions.Several numerical simulations for various fractional orders and randomization intensities are illustrated.

Quintessence anisotropic stellar models in quadratic and Born-Infeld modified teleparallel Rastall gravity

This study aims to discuss anisotropic solutions that are spherically symmetric in the quintessence field,which describe compact stellar objects in the modified Rastall teleparallel theory of gravity.To achieve this goal,the Krori and Barua arrangement for spherically symmetric components of the line element is incorporated.We explore the field equations by selecting appropriate off-diagonal tetrad fields.Born-Infeld function of torsion f(T)=β√λT+1-1 and power law form h(T)=δTn are used.The Born-Infeld gravity was the first modified teleparallel gravity to discuss inflation.We use the linear equation of state pr=ξρto separate the quintessence density.After obtaining the field equations,we investigate different physical parameters that demonstrate the stability and physical acceptability of the stellar models.We use observational data,such as the mass and radius of the compact star candidates PSRJ 1416-2230,Cen X-3,&4U 1820-30,to ensure the physical plausibility of our findings.

A VGGNet-based correction for satellite altimetry-derived gravity anomalies to improve the accuracy of bathymetry to depths of 6500 m

Understanding the topographic patterns of the seafloor is a very important part of understanding our planet.Although the science involved in bathymetric surveying has advanced much over the decades,less than 20%of the seafloor has been precisely modeled to date,and there is an urgent need to improve the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of underwater survey data.In this study,we introduce a pretrained visual geometry group network(VGGNet)method based on deep learning.To apply this method,we input gravity anomaly data derived from ship measurements and satellite altimetry into the model and correct the latter,which has a larger spatial coverage,based on the former,which is considered the true value and is more accurate.After obtaining the corrected high-precision gravity model,it is inverted to the corresponding bathymetric model by applying the gravity-depth correlation.We choose four data pairs collected from different environments,i.e.,the Southern Ocean,Pacific Ocean,Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea,to evaluate the topographic correction results of the model.The experiments show that the coefficient of determination(R~2)reaches 0.834 among the results of the four experimental groups,signifying a high correlation.The standard deviation and normalized root mean square error are also evaluated,and the accuracy of their performance improved by up to 24.2%compared with similar research done in recent years.The evaluation of the R^(2) values at different water depths shows that our model can achieve performance results above 0.90 at certain water depths and can also significantly improve results from mid-water depths when compared to previous research.Finally,the bathymetry corrected by our model is able to show an accuracy improvement level of more than 21%within 1%of the total water depths,which is sufficient to prove that the VGGNet-based method has the ability to perform a gravity-bathymetry correction and achieve outstanding results.

The Structure of Gravity Funnels and Stability Considerations of Matter in SI Units

This article describes an extension of the theory of vortices to electromagnetic types with a start point from known fluid systems. From this, properties of gravity-generating objects (particles and black holes) can be derived, which can also describe their possible interior. This also leads to questions about stability, which are then addressed and ultimately lead to considerations of black holes and their possible internal structure. The results fit into the observable areas and can also be directly verified because they were analytically calculated in SI units.

Analysis of gravity wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings in the northern hemisphere

Due to the significant changes they bring to high latitude stratospheric temperature and wind,stratospheric sudden warmings(SSWs)can have an impact on the propagation and energy distribution of gravity waves(GWs).The variation characteristics of GWs during SSWs have always been an important issue.Using temperature data from January to March in 2014−2016,provided by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC)mission,we have analyzed global GW activity at 15−40 km in the Northern Hemisphere during SSW events.During the SSWs that we studied,the stratospheric temperature rose in one or two longitudinal regions in the Northern Hemisphere;the areas affected extended to the east of 90°W.During these SSWs,the potential energy density(E_(p)of GWs expanded and covered a larger range of longitude and altitude,exhibiting an eastward and downward extension.The E_(p)usually increased,while partially filtered by the eastward zonal winds.When zonal winds weakened or turned westward,E_(p)began to strengthen.After SSWs,the E_(p)usually decreased.These observations can serve as a reference for analyzing the interaction mechanism between SSWs and GWs in future work.

The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts:A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling

Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

A detailed rock density model of the Hong Kong territories

We used the geological map and published rock density measurements to compile the digital rock density model for the Hong Kong territories.We then estimated the average density for the whole territory.According to our result,the rock density values in Hong Kong vary from 2101 to 2681 kg·m^(-3).These density values are typically smaller than the average density of 2670 kg·m^(-3),often adopted to represent the average density of the upper continental crust in physical geodesy and gravimetric geophysics applications.This finding reflects that the geological configuration in Hong Kong is mainly formed by light volcanic formations and lava flows with overlying sedimentary deposits at many locations,while the percentage of heavier metamorphic rocks is very low(less than 1%).This product will improve the accuracy of a detailed geoid model and orthometric heights.

Parameter calibration of the tensile-shear interactive damage constitutive model for sandstone failure

The tensile-shear interactive damage(TSID)model is a novel and powerful constitutive model for rock-like materials.This study proposes a methodology to calibrate the TSID model parameters to simulate sandstone.The basic parameters of sandstone are determined through a series of static and dynamic tests,including uniaxial compression,Brazilian disc,triaxial compression under varying confining pressures,hydrostatic compression,and dynamic compression and tensile tests with a split Hopkinson pressure bar.Based on the sandstone test results from this study and previous research,a step-by-step procedure for parameter calibration is outlined,which accounts for the categories of the strength surface,equation of state(EOS),strain rate effect,and damage.The calibrated parameters are verified through numerical tests that correspond to the experimental loading conditions.Consistency between numerical results and experimental data indicates the precision and reliability of the calibrated parameters.The methodology presented in this study is scientifically sound,straightforward,and essential for improving the TSID model.Furthermore,it has the potential to contribute to other rock constitutive models,particularly new user-defined models.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

A novel order-reduced thermal-coupling electrochemical model for lithium-ion batteries

Although the single-particle model enhanced with electrolyte dynamics(SPMe)is simplified from the pseudo-twodimensional(P2D)electrochemical model for lithium-ion batteries,it is difficult to solve the partial differential equations of solid–liquid phases in real-time applications.Moreover,working temperatures have a heavy impact on the battery behavior.Hence,a thermal-coupling SPMe is constructed.Herein,a lumped thermal model is established to estimate battery temperatures.The order of the SPMe model is reduced by using both transfer functions and truncation techniques and merged with Arrhenius equations for thermal effects.The polarization voltage drop is then modified through the use of test data because its original model is unreliable theoretically.Finally,the coupling-model parameters are extracted using genetic algorithms.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model produces average errors of about 42 mV under 15 constant current conditions and 15 mV under nine dynamic conditions,respectively.This new electrochemicalthermal coupling model is reliable and expected to be used for onboard applications.

Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield and water conservation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model

To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds,this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin,which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China.The research was based on land use/land cover(LULC),natural,socioeconomic,and accessibility data,utilizing the Patch-level Land Use Simulation(PLUS)and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)models to dynamically assess LULC change and associated variations in water yield and water conservation.The analyses included the evaluation of contribution indices of various land use types and the investigation of driving factors that influence water yield and water conservation.The results showed that the change of LULC in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing in cultivated land and construction land,and decreasing in grassland,forest,and unused land.The unused land of all the three predicted scenarios of 2030(S1,a natural development scenario;S2,an ecological protection scenario;and S3,a cultivated land protection scenario)showed a decreasing trend.The scenarios S1 and S3 showed a trend of decreasing in grassland and increasing in cultivated land;while the scenario S2 showed a trend of decreasing in cultivated land and increasing in grassland.The water yield of the Bosten Lake Basin exhibited an initial decline followed by a slight increase from 2000 to 2020.The areas with higher water yield values were primarily located in the northern section of the basin,which is characterized by higher altitude.Water conservation demonstrated a pattern of initial decrease followed by stabilization,with the northeastern region demonstrating higher water conservation values.In the projected LULC scenarios of 2030,the estimated water yield under scenarios S1 and S3 was marginally greater than that under scenario S2;while the level of water conservation across all three scenarios remained rather consistent.The results showed that Hejing County is an important water conservation function zone,and the eastern part of the Xiaoyouledusi Basin is particularly important and should be protected.The findings of this study offer a scientific foundation for advancing sustainable development in arid watersheds and facilitating efficient water resource management.

Exploration of the coupled lattice Boltzmann model based on a multiphase field model:A study of the solid-liquid-gas interaction mechanism in the solidification process

A multiphase field model coupled with a lattice Boltzmann(PF-LBM)model is proposed to simulate the distribution mechanism of bubbles and solutes at the solid-liquid interface,the interaction between dendrites and bubbles,and the effects of different temperatures,anisotropic strengths and tilting angles on the solidified organization of the SCN-0.24wt.%butanedinitrile alloy during the solidification process.The model adopts a multiphase field model to simulate the growth of dendrites,calculates the growth motions of dendrites based on the interfacial solute equilibrium;and adopts a lattice Boltzmann model(LBM)based on the Shan-Chen multiphase flow to simulate the growth and motions of bubbles in the liquid phase,which includes the interaction between solid-liquid-gas phases.The simulation results show that during the directional growth of columnar dendrites,bubbles first precipitate out slowly at the very bottom of the dendrites,and then rise up due to the different solid-liquid densities and pressure differences.The bubbles will interact with the dendrite in the process of flow migration,such as extrusion,overflow,fusion and disappearance.In the case of wide gaps in the dendrite channels,bubbles will fuse to form larger irregular bubbles,and in the case of dense channels,bubbles will deform due to the extrusion of dendrites.In the simulated region,as the dendrites converge and diverge,the bubbles precipitate out of the dendrites by compression and diffusion,which also causes physical phenomena such as fusion and spillage of the bubbles.These results reveal the physical mechanisms of bubble nucleation,growth and kinematic evolution during solidification and interaction with dendrite growth.

Mitigating the Prevalence of Diabetic Retinopathy in the United States: Utilization of the Chronic Care Model as a Public Health Framework

As the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy continues to be on the rise, the Chronic Care Model (CCM) offers a transformative, patient-focused approach for efficient diabetic retinopathy care, emphasizing the need for urgent and innovative strategies in the United States. The model integrates community resources, healthcare organizations, self-management support, delivery system design, decision support, and clinical information systems. Addressing challenges and solutions, the model emphasizes proactive and preventive measures, collaborative multidisciplinary care, technological integration, and overcoming resistance to change. This paper proposes the utilization of the Chronic Care Model (CCM) as a possible public health framework for comprehensive management of diabetic retinopathy in the United States. Implementing the CCM offers a comprehensive approach to diabetic retinopathy care, addressing both individual and systemic factors, essential for improving public health outcomes.