基于Mann-Kendall方法的闽江流域降水趋势分析

基于闽江流域1965年~2020年逐日降水资料,利用Mann-Kendall方法进行趋势分析。结果表明:①闽江流域1965年~2020年平均降水量约为1653 mm,有明显的时间规律和区域分布特点。汛期降水量占全年降水量的70%左右,降水在空间上呈现由上游至下游,从西北至东南减少的趋势;②闽江流域全年降水量呈上升趋势,但趋势不显著。汛期及非汛期期间内,多数站点的降水量呈现递增变化,少数站点表现为弱减少;③闽江流域汛期有雨日的日平均雨强有增加趋势,提高了洪水风险,增加了防洪难度。

伊犁河谷旅游气候变化特征分析——基于Mann-Kendall检验

旅游气候对旅游业发展的影响显著,分析旅游气候规律对于科学合理制定旅游业发展对策具有重要意义。基于Mann-Kendall检验伊犁河谷旅游气候变化规律,发现近59年来伊犁河谷年平均气温总趋势呈现波动升高态势,年降水量略呈波动增长趋势,年平均风速呈波动减小趋势,平均相对湿度变化幅度较小;气温、降水呈“V”型变化趋势;各县市年平均气温均表现为波动增长趋势,但其年平均气温差异较大,且风寒指数、着衣指数差异较大,对旅游具有一定区域性影响。

浅谈Mann-Kendall法分析蚌埠市降水量变化趋势

研究降水的趋势演变规律一直以来都是水文、气象领域的热点,其研究结果对于地区防洪减灾具有非常重要的意义,可以为降水和水资源长期预测提供依据,也为水资源合理开发与利用提供了参考。以安徽省蚌埠水文局辖区内23个水文基本雨量站1950—2022年各月、年降水量资料序列为基础,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法,分析了蚌埠市近73年春、夏、秋、冬四季及年降水量序列的趋势。分析结果为淮河流域蚌埠-洪泽湖区间降水预测及水资源合理调配等提供了最新的理论依据。

基于Mann-Kendall和Wavelet分析的唐山市近60年来降水量时空变化研究

降水量时空变化研究,对了解和预测气候变化趋势、合理规划水资源,以及应对极端天气事件具有重要意义。基于唐山市12个标准气象站点的1961-2020年观测资料,采用Mann-Kendall和Wavelet方法相结合的方式,对唐山市降水量时变性进行分析。结果表明,近60年来研究区降水量变化斜率为-1.59mm/a,经Mann-Kendall检测的趋势值Sen’slo值为-1.23mm/a;年际降水量于2014年发生突变,但并不显著;利用Wavelet分析发现,区域降水量存在1~8、7~10、14~16年的变化周期。

基于Mann-Kendall趋势检验的城市能源碳达峰评估方法

能源是城市碳排放的重要组成,评估城市能源碳达峰是践行国家“双碳”战略的必要手段.为此,针对城市能源的碳排放水平,提出了一种基于Mann-Kendall趋势检验的能源碳达峰评估方法.通过构建涵盖能源碳排放量、清洁能源发电量、交通电能替代量等要素的碳监测体系,结合历史数据计算城市的能源碳排放总量.鉴于能源碳排放具有季节性和随机性,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法,建立城市能源碳达峰判断模型,衡量不同时期区域碳排放水平.以上海某行政区为例,从年度、季度视角,判断该区域的能源碳达峰状态.计算结果表明,基于年度数据,该地区在2020年已实现能源碳达峰;基于季度数据,夏季与秋季已实现能源碳达峰,春季和冬季仍处于平台期.该方法可应用于评估城市级的碳达峰状态,为检验各省市的碳达峰进程提供参考.

基于Sen+Mann-Kendall陕西省植被覆盖度时空变化规律研究

研究长时段、多尺度植被覆盖度时空格局变化及其影响因素对于监测陕西省环境变化,保障生态环境高质量发展具有重要意义。基于MOD17A3H数据、采用Sen趋势分析以及Mann-Kendall显著性检验,对陕西省2000—2019年植被覆盖度时空格局变化进行研究。结果表明:时间上,2010—2019年陕西省植被覆盖度呈波动增长趋势,植被生长环境不断改善;空间上,自北向南,植被覆盖度整体呈低-高-低-高分布,植被覆盖度年际变化趋势呈增-减-增-减分布,两者空间上具有一定互补性;Sen+Mann-Kendall方法对于异常值不敏感,对于数据分布无要求,可以广泛应用到植被覆盖度变化趋势分析中。

基于Mann-Kendall和小波功率谱的丹东市近35年降水量变化特征解析

为探究丹东市降水时空变化规律,以1986—2020年站点观测资料和降水栅格数据为基础,运用Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet分析和统计方法,研究了该地降水倾向趋势、变化周期及空间分布。结果显示,丹东近35年来平均降水量以3.79mm/a的速率增加,但趋势不显著。降水变化具有多个短震荡周期,主周期为6a,在2000年发生弱突变。受季风与地形影响,降水量呈现中高周低分布,空间差异为823~1098mm。文章揭示了近35年丹东降水量变化特征,可为区域水资源管理提供参考依据。

基于Mann-Kendall法的祖厉河流域水沙特征及趋势分析

为了探究半干旱黄土区水沙特征及变化趋势,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,对祖厉河流域2001—2016年的降水量、径流量与输沙量进行了分析研究。结果表明:研究期内年降水量呈不明显增加趋势,年变化幅度为1.83 mm/a,汛期降水量呈减少趋势,年变化幅度为-2.01 mm/a;年径流量与汛期径流量变化曲线基本一致,总体都呈显著波动下降趋势(P<0.05),径流量年变化幅度为-3.85×10^(6) m^(3)/a,汛期径流量年变化幅度为-2.729×10^(6) m^(3)/a,二者突变时间均在2013年左右,突变以后UF k值超过95%的信度线(α=0.05),呈现急剧减少趋势;输沙量和径流量呈现相似的显著减少趋势,年输沙量与汛期输沙量变化曲线基本一致,年输沙量和汛期输沙量年变化幅度均为-1.06×10^(6) t/a,二者突变开始时间均在2011—2012年之间,2014年以后UF k值超过95%的信度线(α=0.05),呈急剧减少趋势。

基于Mann-Kendall法的流域降雨与地下水位时空变化特征研究

降水量在空间和时间上的变化会影响水资源的可用性,导致农业、生态和基础设施受损。在区域和局部尺度上,降雨均有增加和减少的趋势。降雨强度增加可能导致山洪暴发,降水减少也会影响水的可用性和水质。如何预测降水量在时空中的变化趋势具有重要意义。采用Mann-Kendall方法对河北某区域降雨量变化趋势及特征进行分析,并分析观测井的降雨量与地下水水位之间的关系,研究成果可知:4个观测台站中,H台站接收的年降雨量最大,最大值达到了5 153 mm,而K-K台站最大降雨量仅次于H站台,为3 598 mm。地下水位变化与降雨变化趋势相同。可为相关工程提供参考。

基于Mann-Kendall法的西宁市降水量变化规律分析

利用青海省西宁市4个气象站60年的降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验方法分析了降水量的年际、年代际变化特征及趋势,研究了该地区多年降水量的时程变化规律并得出该地区降水相关特征量的变化特征。结果表明:西宁地区年降水量整体呈现上升趋势,降水量的季节性差异较大,汛期表现出较为明显的上升趋势;年降水日数也呈现上升趋势,但上升趋势不显著;西宁市降水量在2005年发生突变。分析结果可为西宁市未来降水资源合理利用、洪涝灾害防治等工作提供参考依据。

A comparison study on structure-function relationship of polysaccharides obtained from sea buckthorn berries using different methods:antioxidant and bile acid-binding capacity

In this study,the structural characters,antioxidant activities and bile acid-binding ability of sea buckthorn polysaccharides(HRPs)obtained by the commonly used hot water(HRP-W),pressurized hot water(HRP-H),ultrasonic(HRP-U),acid(HRP-C)and alkali(HRP-A)assisted extraction methods were investigated.The results demonstrated that extraction methods had significant effects on extraction yield,monosaccharide composition,molecular weight,particle size,triple-helical structure,and surface morphology of HRPs except for the major linkage bands.Thermogravimetric analysis showed that HRP-U with filamentous reticular microstructure exhibited better thermal stability.The HRP-A with the lowest molecular weight and highest arabinose content possessed the best antioxidant activities.Moreover,the rheological analysis indicated that HRPs with higher galacturonic acid content and molecular weight showed higher viscosity and stronger crosslinking network(HRP-C,HRP-W and HRP-U),which exhibited stronger bile acid binding capacity.The present findings provide scientific evidence in the preparation technology of sea buckthorn polysaccharides with good antioxidant and bile acid binding capacity which are related to the structure affected by the extraction methods.

Drilling-based measuring method for the c-φ parameter of rock and its field application

The technology of drilling tests makes it possible to obtain the strength parameter of rock accurately in situ. In this paper, a new rock cutting analysis model that considers the influence of the rock crushing zone(RCZ) is built. The formula for an ultimate cutting force is established based on the limit equilibrium principle. The relationship between digital drilling parameters(DDP) and the c-φ parameter(DDP-cφ formula, where c refers to the cohesion and φ refers to the internal friction angle) is derived, and the response of drilling parameters and cutting ratio to the strength parameters is analyzed. The drillingbased measuring method for the c-φ parameter of rock is constructed. The laboratory verification test is then completed, and the difference in results between the drilling test and the compression test is less than 6%. On this basis, in-situ rock drilling tests in a traffic tunnel and a coal mine roadway are carried out, and the strength parameters of the surrounding rock are effectively tested. The average difference ratio of the results is less than 11%, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method for obtaining the strength parameters based on digital drilling. This study provides methodological support for field testing of rock strength parameters.

Sparse Modal Decomposition Method Addressing Underdetermined Vortex-Induced Vibration Reconstruction Problem for Marine Risers

When investigating the vortex-induced vibration(VIV)of marine risers,extrapolating the dynamic response on the entire length based on limited sensor measurements is a crucial step in both laboratory experiments and fatigue monitoring of real risers.The problem is conventionally solved using the modal decomposition method,based on the principle that the response can be approximated by a weighted sum of limited vibration modes.However,the method is not valid when the problem is underdetermined,i.e.,the number of unknown mode weights is more than the number of known measurements.This study proposed a sparse modal decomposition method based on the compressed sensing theory and the Compressive Sampling Matching Pursuit(Co Sa MP)algorithm,exploiting the sparsity of VIV in the modal space.In the validation study based on high-order VIV experiment data,the proposed method successfully reconstructed the response using only seven acceleration measurements when the conventional methods failed.A primary advantage of the proposed method is that it offers a completely data-driven approach for the underdetermined VIV reconstruction problem,which is more favorable than existing model-dependent solutions for many practical applications such as riser structural health monitoring.

Investigation into Recent Temperature and Rainfall Trends in Mali Using Mann-Kendall Trend Test: Case Study of Bamako

Rainfall and temperature variability analysis is important for researchers and policy formulators in making critical decisions on water availability and use in communities. The Western Sahel, which comprises Mali is considered as one of the vulnerable regions to climate change, and also encountered the challenges of climatic shocks such as flood and drought. This research therefore sought to investigate climate change effects on hydrological events and trends in Sahelian rainfall intensity using Bamako (Mali) as a case study from 1991 to 2020, as limited data availability did not allow an extended period of study. Monthly observed data provided by MALI-METEO was used to validate daily rainfalls data from African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) satellite-based rainfall product on monthly basis. The validated model performance used Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBAIS) and gave results of 0.904 and 1.0506 respectively. Trends in annual maximum temperatures and rainfalls were analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test. The result indicated that the trend in annual maximum rainfalls was decreasing, while annual total rainfall was increasing but not significant at 5% significance level. The rate of increase in annual total rainfalls was 0.475 mm/year according to the observed annual rainfall series and decreased to 0.68 mm/year in annual maximum. The analysis further found that annual maximum temperatures were increasing at the rate of 0.03°C/year at 5% significance level. To provide more accurate climate predictions, it is recommended that further studies on rainfall and temperature with data sets spanning 60 - 90 years be carried out.

Robustness Study and Superior Method Development and Validation for Analytical Assay Method of Atropine Sulfate in Pharmaceutical Ophthalmic Solution

Background: The robustness is a measurement of an analytical chemical method and its ability to contain unaffected by little with deliberate variation of analytical chemical method parameters. The analytical chemical method variation parameters are based on pH variability of buffer solution of mobile phase, organic ratio composition changes, stationary phase (column) manufacture, brand name and lot number variation;flow rate variation and temperature variation of chromatographic system. The analytical chemical method for assay of Atropine Sulfate conducted for robustness evaluation. The typical variation considered for mobile phase organic ratio change, change of pH, change of temperature, change of flow rate, change of column etc. Purpose: The aim of this study is to develop a cost effective, short run time and robust analytical chemical method for the assay quantification of Atropine in Pharmaceutical Ophthalmic Solution. This will help to make analytical decisions quickly for research and development scientists as well as will help with quality control product release for patient consumption. This analytical method will help to meet the market demand through quick quality control test of Atropine Ophthalmic Solution and it is very easy for maintaining (GDP) good documentation practices within the shortest period of time. Method: HPLC method has been selected for developing superior method to Compendial method. Both the compendial HPLC method and developed HPLC method was run into the same HPLC system to prove the superiority of developed method. Sensitivity, precision, reproducibility, accuracy parameters were considered for superiority of method. Mobile phase ratio change, pH of buffer solution, change of stationary phase temperature, change of flow rate and change of column were taken into consideration for robustness study of the developed method. Results: The limit of quantitation (LOQ) of developed method was much low than the compendial method. The % RSD for the six sample assay of developed method was 0.4% where the % RSD of the compendial method was 1.2%. The reproducibility between two analysts was 100.4% for developed method on the contrary the compendial method was 98.4%.

Hybrid Strategy of Partitioned and Monolithic Methods for Solving Strongly Coupled Analysis of Inverse and Direct Piezoelectric and Circuit Coupling

The inverse and direct piezoelectric and circuit coupling are widely observed in advanced electro-mechanical systems such as piezoelectric energy harvesters.Existing strongly coupled analysis methods based on direct numerical modeling for this phenomenon can be classified into partitioned or monolithic formulations.Each formulation has its advantages and disadvantages,and the choice depends on the characteristics of each coupled problem.This study proposes a new option:a coupled analysis strategy that combines the best features of the existing formulations,namely,the hybrid partitioned-monolithic method.The analysis of inverse piezoelectricity and the monolithic analysis of direct piezoelectric and circuit interaction are strongly coupled using a partitioned iterative hierarchical algorithm.In a typical benchmark problem of a piezoelectric energy harvester,this research compares the results from the proposed method to those from the conventional strongly coupled partitioned iterative method,discussing the accuracy,stability,and computational cost.The proposed hybrid concept is effective for coupled multi-physics problems,including various coupling conditions.

A High-Accuracy Curve Boundary Recognition Method Based on the Lattice Boltzmann Method and Immersed Moving Boundary Method

Applying numerical simulation technology to investigate fluid-solid interaction involving complex curved bound-aries is vital in aircraft design,ocean,and construction engineering.However,current methods such as Lattice Boltzmann(LBM)and the immersion boundary method based on solid ratio(IMB)have limitations in identifying custom curved boundaries.Meanwhile,IBM based on velocity correction(IBM-VC)suffers from inaccuracies and numerical instability.Therefore,this study introduces a high-accuracy curve boundary recognition method(IMB-CB),which identifies boundary nodes by moving the search box,and corrects the weighting function in LBM by calculating the solid ratio of the boundary nodes,achieving accurate recognition of custom curve boundaries.In addition,curve boundary image and dot methods are utilized to verify IMB-CB.The findings revealed that IMB-CB can accurately identify the boundary,showing an error of less than 1.8%with 500 lattices.Also,the flow in the custom curve boundary and aerodynamic characteristics of the NACA0012 airfoil are calculated and compared to IBM-VC.Results showed that IMB-CB yields lower lift and drag coefficient errors than IBM-VC,with a 1.45%drag coefficient error.In addition,the characteristic curve of IMB-CB is very stable,whereas that of IBM-VC is not.For the moving boundary problem,LBM-IMB-CB with discrete element method(DEM)is capable of accurately simulating the physical phenomena of multi-moving particle flow in complex curved pipelines.This research proposes a new curve boundary recognition method,which can significantly promote the stability and accuracy of fluid-solid interaction simulations and thus has huge applications in engineering.

Stability Analysis and Performance Evaluation of Additive Mixed-Precision Runge-Kutta Methods

Additive Runge-Kutta methods designed for preserving highly accurate solutions in mixed-precision computation were previously proposed and analyzed.These specially designed methods use reduced precision for the implicit computations and full precision for the explicit computations.In this work,we analyze the stability properties of these methods and their sensitivity to the low-precision rounding errors,and demonstrate their performance in terms of accuracy and efficiency.We develop codes in FORTRAN and Julia to solve nonlinear systems of ODEs and PDEs using the mixed-precision additive Runge-Kutta(MP-ARK)methods.The convergence,accuracy,and runtime of these methods are explored.We show that for a given level of accuracy,suitably chosen MP-ARK methods may provide significant reductions in runtime.

A method to predict rockburst using temporal trend test and its application

Rockbursts have become a significant hazard in underground mining,underscoring the need for a robust early warning model to ensure safety management.This study presents a novel approach for rockburst prediction,integrating the Mann-Kendall trend test(MKT)and multi-indices fusion to enable real-time and quantitative assessment of rockburst hazards.The methodology employed in this study involves the development of a comprehensive precursory index library for rockbursts.The MKT is then applied to analyze the real-time trend of each index,with adherence to rockburst characterization laws serving as the warning criterion.By employing a confusion matrix,the warning effectiveness of each index is assessed,enabling index preference determination.Ultimately,the integrated rockburst hazard index Q is derived through data fusion.The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a warning effectiveness of 0.563 for Q,surpassing the performance of any individual index.Moreover,the model’s adaptability and scalability are enhanced through periodic updates driven by actual field monitoring data,making it suitable for complex underground working environments.By providing an efficient and accurate basis for decision-making,the proposed model holds great potential for the prevention and control of rockbursts.It offers a valuable tool for enhancing safety measures in underground mining operations.

A Review on Sources,Extractions and Analysis Methods of a Sustainable Biomaterial:Tannins

Condensed and hydrolysable tannins are non-toxic natural polyphenols that are a commercial commodity industrialized for tanning hides to obtain leather and for a growing number of other industrial applications mainly to substitute petroleum-based products.They are a definite class of sustainable materials of the forestry industry.They have been in operation for hundreds of years to manufacture leather and now for a growing number of applications in a variety of other industries,such as wood adhesives,metal coating,pharmaceutical/medical applications and several others.This review presents the main sources,either already or potentially commercial of this forestry by-materials,their industrial and laboratory extraction systems,their systems of analysis with their advantages and drawbacks,be these methods so simple to even appear primitive but nonetheless of proven effectiveness,or very modern and instrumental.It constitutes a basic but essential summary of what is necessary to know of these sustainable materials.In doing so,the review highlights some of the main challenges that remain to be addressed to deliver the quality and economics of tannin supply necessary to fulfill the industrial production requirements for some materials-based uses.