Ecosystem changes revealed by land cover in the three-river headwaters region of Qinghai,China(1990–2015)

The Three-River Headwaters Region(TRHR) of Qinghai Province, in the Tibetan Plateau of China, is the main source of the Yangtze, Yellow, and Lancang rivers, and is very significant to the security of freshwater resources for China and southeastern Asia. It is a critical ecological region of China for its ecological functions, and has been changed or even degraded in recent decades owing to climate change and human pressure. To effectively protect and restore the degraded ecosystems, the Chinese government initiated a series of ecological conservation projects in TRHR. It is essential to quantitatively assess ecosystem changes and their relationship to driving factors for indepth understanding of long-term changes of ecosystems and effects of ecological restoration policies and offer practical insights for ecological restoration. Here, land cover data has been interpreted with the series data of Landsat during 1990–2015. The patterns of different ecosystems and their developing process have been derived from land cover change. The results show that ecosystem types in TRHR include forest, grassland, cropland,wetland, artificial surface and barren land, accounting for 4.51%, 70.80%, 0.15%, 9.47%, 0.16% and 14.90%,respectively. Barren land converted to wetland was the significant ecosystem change from 1990 to 2015. Increases in temperature and precipitation and implementation of ecological rehabilitation helped maintain relatively stable ecosystem patterns. It is necessary to continue ecological projects to improve and/or maintain the ecosystems in TRHR because there is still a risk of land degradation under increasing climate change and human activity.

Changes in Grassland Ecosystem Service Values in the Three-River Headwaters Region,China

[Method] This study aimed to assess the changes in grassland ecosystem Service values in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China, the source of the Yangtze, Yellow （Huang He） and Lantsang （Mekong） rivers. [Method] Biophysical values of four services were monetized within the region, including water regulation, air quality regulation, climate regulation and soil conservation. [Result] The total ESVs were 884.97×10^8 Yuan, 1 302.06×10^8 Yuan and 1 299.49×10^8 Yuan in 2000, 2005 and 2008, respectively. The amount of value per unit area experienced a steep increase from 2000 to 2005（18.10×10^4 Yuan/km2）, and then remained almost unchanged from 2005 to 2008 （-0.31×10^4 Yuan/km2）. The ESV tended to decline from the southeastern to the northwestern. ESV in the eastern and central part increased faster than that in the south-central and western part of the TRHR from 2000 to 2008. It could be seen that the ecosystem condition of grassland in the TRHR improved signifi- cantly over the study period of 2000-2008. [Conelusion] The results provided good information to assess the effectiveness of current ecological protection measures in the TRHR and support regional sustainable management policies.

Grassland degradation in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region, Qinghai Province

Supported by MSS images in the mid and late 1970s,TM images in the early 1990s and TM/ETM images in 2004,grassland degradation in the＂Three-River Headwaters＂region （TRH region）was interpreted through analysis on RS images in two time series,then the spatial and temporal characteristics of grassland degradation in the TRH region were analyzed since the 1970s.The results showed that grassland degradation in the TRH region was a continuous change process which had large affected area and long time scale,and rapidly strengthen phenomenon did not exist in the 1990s as a whole.Grassland degradation pattern in the TRH region took shape initially in the mid and late 1970s.Since the 1970s,this degradation process has taken place continuously,obviously characterizing different rules in different regions.In humid and semi-humid meadow region,grassland firstly fragmentized, then vegetation coverage decreased continuously,and finally＂black-soil-patch＂degraded grassland was formed.But in semi-arid and arid steppe region,the vegetation coverage decreased continuously,and finally desertification was formed.Because grassland degradation had obviously regional differences in the TRH region,it could be regionalized into 7 zones, and each zone had different characteristics in type,grade,scale and time process of grassland degradation.

Assessing the effects of vegetation and precipitation on soil erosion in the Three-River Headwaters Region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Soil erosion in the Three-River Headwaters Region(TRHR)of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China has a significant impact on local economic development and ecological environment.Vegetation and precipitation are considered to be the main factors for the variation in soil erosion.However,it is a big challenge to analyze the impacts of precipitation and vegetation respectively as well as their combined effects on soil erosion from the pixel scale.To assess the influences of vegetation and precipitation on the variation of soil erosion from 2005 to 2015,we employed the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE)model to evaluate soil erosion in the TRHR,and then developed a method using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model(LMDI)which can exponentially decompose the influencing factors,to calculate the contribution values of the vegetation cover factor(C factor)and the rainfall erosivity factor(R factor)to the variation of soil erosion from the pixel scale.In general,soil erosion in the TRHR was alleviated from 2005 to 2015,of which about 54.95%of the area where soil erosion decreased was caused by the combined effects of the C factor and the R factor,and 41.31%was caused by the change in the R factor.There were relatively few areas with increased soil erosion modulus,of which 64.10%of the area where soil erosion increased was caused by the change in the C factor,and 23.88%was caused by the combined effects of the C factor and the R factor.Therefore,the combined effects of the C factor and the R factor were regarded as the main driving force for the decrease of soil erosion,while the C factor was the dominant factor for the increase of soil erosion.The area with decreased soil erosion caused by the C factor(12.10×10^3 km^2)was larger than the area with increased soil erosion caused by the C factor(8.30×10^3 km^2),which indicated that vegetation had a positive effect on soil erosion.This study generally put forward a new method for quantitative assessment of the impacts of the influencing factors on soil erosion,and also provided a scientific basis for the regional control of soil erosion.

A method for determining vegetation growth process using remote sensing data: A case study in the Three-River Headwaters Region, China

Accurate measurements of the associated vegetation phenological dynamics are crucial for understanding the relationship between climate change and terrestrial ecosystems. However, at present, most vegetation phenological calculations are based on a single algorithm or method. Because of the spatial, temporal, and ecological complexity of the vegetation growth processes, a single algorithm or method for monitoring all these processes has been indicated to be elusive. Therefore, in this study, from the perspective of plant growth characteristics, we established a method to remotely determine the start of the growth season(SOG) and the end of the growth season(EOG), in which the maximum relative change rate of the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) corresponds to the SOG, and the next minimum absolute change rate of the NDVI corresponds to the EOG. Taking the Three-River Headwaters Region in 2000–2013 as an example, we ascertained the spatiotemporal and vertical characteristics of its vegetation phenological changes. Then, in contrast to the actual air temperature data, observed data and other related studies, we found that the SOG and EOG calculated by the proposed method is closer to the time corresponding to the air temperature, and the trends of the SOG and EOG calculated by the proposed method are in good agreement with other relevant studies. Meantime, the error of the SOG between the calculated and observed in this study is smaller than that in other studies.

Synthesis Analysis of Soil Erosion for Three-River Headwater Region Based on GIS

In this paper,based on the common soil erosion model,the Three-River Headwaters region was select for study object. GIS methods are applied to conduct Semi-quantitative assessment for different types of soil erosion,and some results are concluded. The water erosion occurs in High Mountain and extra-high mountain of Yushu,Nangqian,Banma and Jiuzhi County in the southeast and south of the Three-River Headwaters region. The degree of erosion is prone to topography,precipitation,river and human activity. The freeze-thaw erosion mainly distributes in the northwest of the Three-River Headwaters region. The area of middle and above middle erosion degree accounts for roughly 50%.

Changing Spring Phenology Dates in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region of the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2013

The variation of the vegetation growing season in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region of the Tibetan Plateau has recently become a controversial topic. One issue is that the estimated local trend in the start of the vegetation growing season(SOS)based on remote sensing data is easily affected by outliers because this data series is short. In this study, we determine that the spring minimum temperature is the most influential factor for SOS. The significant negative linear relationship between the two variables in the region is evaluated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer–Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for 2000–13. We then reconstruct the SOS time series based on the temperature data for 1960–2013.The regional mean SOS shows an advancing trend of 1.42 d(10 yr)during 1960–2013, with the SOS occurring on the 160th and 151st days in 1960 and 2013, respectively. The advancing trend enhances to 6.04 d(10 yr)during the past 14 years. The spatiotemporal variations of the reconstructed SOS data are similar to those deduced from remote sensing data during the past 14 years. The latter exhibit an even larger regional mean trend of SOS [7.98 d(10 yr)] during 2000–13. The Arctic Oscillation is found to have significantly influenced the changing SOS, especially for the eastern part of the region,during 2000–13.

Research on Hydraulic Block Scenarios in the Land Conservation Zone of the Headwaters Area of Jinshu Bay

[Objective] The aim was to study the hydraulic block scenarios in the water source land conservation zone in Jinshu Bay so as to ensure the water quality in the water sources in Jinshu Bay.[Method] By dint of one dimension water amount and water quality mode in the river net in Taihu,the water flow movement characteristics and pollutants transportation rules in the water sources areas in Jinshu Bay under five kinds of hydraulic block scenarios were compared and discussed.[Result] After demolishing the temporary soil dam in the water source conservation zone in Jinshu Bay,water amount and pollutants increased and water quality deteriorated.It was necessary to take certain hydraulic power to block and control the pollutants in the preservation area;after demolishing the dam,there was less water amount and pollutants.The water quality improved significantly.The hydraulic block facility in the preservation area and its surroundings were all releasing and not introducing;the one along the mouth of the river of Mentianji Gang,Jinshugang and Longtanggang were introducing and not releasing,which only restricted poor-quality water in Beijing-Hangzhou Canal and Huguang Canal flowing into the conservation zone.The water into the conservation zone was all from Gonghu.The water mobility within the conservation zone was good.The regional water quality improved to the largest scale.[Conclusion] Judging from the water flow movement characteristics and pollutants transportation rules in Jinshu Bay,the fifth proposal was more appropriate.

Quantifying impacts of climate and human activities on the grassland in the Three-River Headwater Region after two phases of Ecological Project

The Three-River Headwater Region(TRHR)of China is a typical representative of the alpine environment in the Central Asian plateau and the alpine grassland in the world.Grassland degradation is one of its serious eco-logical problems.The purpose of this study is to quantify the joint impacts of climate and human activities on grassland changes in TRHR after two phases of Ecological Conservation and Construction Project(Ecological Project).Grassland vegetation coverage is selected as an indicator for analyzing grassland changes.We adopt Sen+Mann-Kendall trend analysis,residual trend analysis and correlation analysis methods to analyze the trends in spatial-temporal changes and driving factors of grassland in TRHR from 2000 to 2019.The results show that:(1)The grassland has been mainly restored,and the degraded grassland area only accounts for 1.66%of TRHR.After the implementation of the first phase of the Ecological Project,the percentage of restored grassland area has significantly increased from 8.82%to 24.57%,and slightly decreased during the second phase.(2)The establish-ment of national nature reserves and the implementation of the Ecological Project have changed the situation that“the grassland inside the reserve is worse than that outside the reserve”.(3)Grassland restoration is mainly af-fected by the joint effects of climate and human activities.Nevertheless,grassland degradation is mainly affected by human activities such as overgrazing and grassland reclamation.All of these findings can enrich our under-standing of grassland restoration in TRHR.Artificial measures have certain limitations in promoting grassland restoration.Natural restoration should be considered when human beings strengthen ecological conservation and transform their production and life styles.

Long-term ecological compensation policies and practices in China:Insights from the Three Rivers Headwaters Area

Using the Three Rivers Headwaters Area in China as a pilot project, this study has investigated the effectiveness of the ecological compensation policies and practices have implemented in this area over the past decade. Major issues have encountered during the implementation process, including the formidable extent of grassland degradation, the comprehensive nature of measures needed to restore the ecosystem, and the time needed to achieve these goals. These issues are discussed, and remedial measures proposed. They include: drafting regulations giving the Three Rivers Headwaters Area ecological protection, setting aside funds for ecological compensation and establishing a national park, using an ecological assets accounting methodology for financial reporting purposes, designing a science-based approach for conducting the livestock husbandry population migration, enhancing the oversight capacity for all aspects of the ecological compensation process, and making an overall plan to promote the harmonious development of this area together with other regions in Qinghai Province.

Increased southerly and easterly water vapor transport contributed to the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation over the Three-River Headwaters in the Tibetan Plateau

The Three-River Headwaters(TRH)region in the Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change;changes in summer(June–August)precipitation have a significant impact on water security and sustainability in both local and downstream areas.However,the changes in summer precipitation of different intensities over the TRH region,along with their influencing factors,remain unclear.In this study,we used observational and ERA5 reanalysis data and employed a precipitation categorization and water vapor budget analysis to quantify the categorized precipitation variations and investigate their possible linkages with the water vapor budget.Our results showed an increasing trend in summer precipitation at a rate of 0.9 per year(p<0.1)during 1979–2020,with a significant dry-to-wet transition in 2002.The category‘very heavy precipitation’(10 mm d−1)contributed 65.1%of the increased summer precipitation,which occurred frequently in the northern TRH region.The dry-to-wet transition was caused by the effects of varied atmospheric circulations in each subregion.Southwesterly water vapor transport through the southern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the western TRH region(158.2%),while southeasterly water vapor transport through the eastern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the central TRH(155.2%)and eastern TRH(229.2%)regions.Therefore,we inferred that the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation and the increased‘very heavy precipitation’over the TRH was caused by increased easterly and southerly water vapor transport.

Livestock-carrying capacity and overgrazing status of alpine grassland in the Three-River Headwaters region, China

The Three-River Headwaters region in China is an ecological barrier providing en- vironmental protection and regional sustainable development for the mid-stream and down- stream areas, which also plays an important role in animal husbandry in China. This study estimated the grassland yield in the Three-River Headwaters region based on MODIS NPP data, and calculated the proper livestock-carrying capacity of the grassland. We analyzed the overgrazing number and its spatial distribution characteristics through data comparison be- tween actual and proper livestock-carrying capacity. The results showed the following： （1） total grassland yield （hay） in the Three-River Headwaters region was 10.96 million tons in 2010 with an average grassland yield of 465.70 kg/hm2 （the spatial distribution presents a decreasing trend from the east and southeast to the west and northwest in turn）; （2） the proper livestock-carrying capacity in the Three-River Headwaters region is 12.19 million sheep units （hereafter described as ＂SU＂）, and the average stocking capacity is 51.27 SU [the proper carrying capacity is above 100 SU/km2 in the eastern counties, 60 SU/km2 in the cen- tral counties （except Madoi County）, and 30 SU/km2 in the western counties]; and （3） total overgrazing number was 6.52 million SU in the Three-River Headwaters region in 2010, with an average overgrazing ratio of 67.88% and an average overgrazing number of 27.43 SU/km2 A higher overgrazing ratio occurred in Tongde, Xinghai, Yushu, Henan and Z^kog. There was no overgrazing in Zhiduo, Tanggula Township and Darlag, Qumerleb and Madoi. The re- mainder of the counties had varying degrees of overgrazing.

Climate change and its driving effect on the runoff in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region

Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the headwater sub-region of the Yangtze River, Tangnaihai in the headwater sub-region of the Yellow River and Changdu in the headwater sub-region of the Lancang River during the period 1965-2004, this paper analyses the trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-KendalI-Sneyers sequential trend test. Mak- kink model is applied to calculate the potential evaporation. The runoff model driven by pre- cipitation and potential evaporation is developed and the influence on runoff by climate change is simulated under different scenarios. Results show that during the period 1965-2004 the temperature of the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region is increasing, the runoff of the three hydrological stations is decreasing and both of them had abrupt changes in 1994, while no significant trend changes happen to the precipitation. The runoff model suggests that the precipitation has a positive effect on the runoff depth, while the potential evaporation plays a negative role. The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the significant in the three rivers; and that of the Yellow River is the least. The result of the scenarios analysis indicates that although the precipitation and the potential evaporation have positive and negative effects on runoff relatively, fluctuated characteristics of individual effect on the runoff depth in specific situations are represented.

The Yanshanian Granites and Associated Mo-Polymetallic Mineralization in the Xiangcheng-Luoji Area of the Sanjiang-Yangtze Conjunction Zone in Southwest China

The Xiangcheng-Luoji area is located in the conjunction of the southern part of the ＂Sanjiang＂ mineralization belt and the west margin of Yangtze craton. The geological studies were carried out to know the Indosinian large porphyry Cu polymetallic deposits. Recent studies revealed that the area existed in the superposition of Late Yanshanian acidic intrusive rock belt and developed Mo-Cu polymetallic mineralization where promising exploration results have been achieved. Through the systematic study of geochronology, formation age of the Renlin Mo-minieralization monzogranite is 81.7±1.1 Ma. Re-Os dating results concentrate on 82.34±1.2–88.27±1.23 Ma for the model ages of molbdenite of Tongchanggou Mo deposits, average age is 85 ± 2 Ma where seven data points constitute a good isochron which shows that they were the same period products of mineralization. Geochemical features shown that the rocks have a high content of SiO 2（66.59–77.36wt%）, alkaline-rich（K2O=2.68–6.08wt%; Na2O=0.50–4.91wt%; K2O/Na2 O ratios are 0.71–5.56, where average ratio of 1.89） and have aluminum–rich features（Al2O3 10.38–15.15wt%） with σ values less than 3.3. Which indicate that they belong to the high-K calc-alkali to shoshonite series. Geochemistry of Yanshanian intrusions shows that rocks are enrich in LREE with obvious negative δEu anomalies, enrichment of trace elements like, LILE elements（Rb, Th, Ba） with a relative loss of Ba, and loss of high field strength elements（Nb, Ta, P, Ti） and HREE elements. The granite genetic classification diagram shows that the granites belong to A-type granite and formatted in syn-collision tectonic environment. Meanwhile, the Yanshanian granites also inherited the characteristics of island arc environment which formed in the process of crustal melting caused by upwelling of asthenospheric substances in the extensional tectonic background. The process of partial melting existed substances from the deep（lower crust or upper mantle） which have been added. In the Xiangcheng-Luoji area, monzogranite and granodiorite porphyry bodies are widely developed Mo polymetallic mineralization, the deep porphyry mineralization have great potential for geological prospecting.

The Bowen Ratio of an Alpine Grassland in Three-River Headwaters, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, from 2001 to 2018

The Bowen ratio(β) is used to quantify heat transfer from the land surface into the air, which is becoming a hot topic in research on the biogeophysical effects of land use and cover changes. The Three-River Headwaters(TRH), as a sensitive and fragile region, was selected as the study area. The β for 2001–2018 was estimated from the evapotranspiration product(ETMOD16) of MODIS and the net radiation of the land surface through the albedo from GLASS. The ETMOD16 data were evaluated against the observation data(ETOBS) at two alpine grassland flux towers obtained from ChinaFLUX. The interannual trend of the β was analyzed by multiple linear regression(MLR) and structure model(SEM) with the multiple factors of precipitation, temperature, humidity, albedo, and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI, MOD09 Q1). The results show that the ETMOD16 values were significantly correlated with ETOBS, with a correlation coefficient above 0.70(P < 0.01) for the two sites. In 2001–2018, the regional mean β was 2.52 ± 0.77 for the whole grassland, and its spatial distribution gradually increased from the eastern to western region. The interannual β showed a downward trend with a slope of-0.025 and a multiple regression coefficient(R^(2)) of 0.21(P = 0.056). Most of the variability(51%) in the interannual β can be explained by the linear regression of the above multiple factors, and the temperature plays a dominant role for the whole region. The SEM analysis further shows that an increasing NDVI results in a decreasing albedo with a path coefficient of-0.57, because the albedo was negatively correlated with NDVI(R^(2) = 0.52, P < 0.01), which indicates a negative and indirect effect on β from vegetation restoration. An obvious warming climate was found to prompt more evapotranspiration, and restoring vegetation makes the land surface receive more radiation, which both resulted in a decreasing trend in the annual β. This study revealed the biogeophysical mechanisms of vegetation restoration under a changing climate, and demonstrated the Bowen ratio can be applied as an indicator of climate-regulating functions in ecosystem assessments.

The 30m-NDVI-based Alpine Grassland Changes and Climate Impacts in the Three-River Headwaters Region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1990 to 2018

The response of long-term vegetation changes and climate change has been a hot topic in recent research.Previously,a Landsat-based fusion model was developed and used to produce a dataset of normalized vegetation index(NDVI)for the Three-River Headwater region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with a spatial resolution of 30 m and the time spanning the nearly 30 years from 1990 to 2018.In this study,the NDVI was applied to an analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in the alpine grassland and the impacts from climate change using the Theil-Sen Median method and linear regression.The results showed that:(1)The regional mean NDVI was 0.39and showed a spatial pattern of decreasing from the southeast to the northwest in the recent three decades.Among the three parks,the Lancang River Park had the highest NDVI(0.43),followed by the Yellow River Park(0.38)and Yangtze River Park(0.23).(2)An upward trending was found in the NDVI time series at a rate of 0.0031 yr^(-1)(R^(2)=0.62,P<0.01)over the whole period of 1990–2018.The increasing rate(0.00649 yr^(-1),R^(2)=0.71,P<0.01)in the latter period of 2005–2018 was nearly 2.3 times of that(0.00284 yr^(-1),R^(2)=0.31,P<0.01)in the previous period of1990–2005.In the latest periods,the three parks experienced rates that were 2.3 to 63 times the corresponding values in the early period.(3)The NDVI is correlated more positively with temperature than precipitation.The impacts of climate change decreased along with the coverage fraction from the higher,median and then lower levels.The climate change can explain 34%of the variability in the NDVI time series of the areas with a higher fraction of grassland coverage,while it was 31%for the median fraction and 20%for the lower fraction.This study is the first to use the 30 m NDVI dataset spanning nearly 30 years to analyze the spatial and temporal variability and climate impacts in the alpine grasslands of the Three-River Headwater region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The results provide a basis for assessments on the ecological management effects and ecological quality based on long-term baseline data with a higher spatial resolution.

Study on the Status and Topographic Heterogeneity of the Headwater Region of the Three Rivers

The ecological environment of the Three-River Headwater Region is primitive and unique,and sensitive and complex to external influences.The Three-River Headwater Region is the largest nature reserve in China,and is also a nature reserve with the highest concentration of biodiversity in the world's high-altitude areas,so the protection of ecological diversity in this region is particularly important.Ecological diversity is the material basis on which the entire humanity depends to survive and develop.It not only provides humans with basic needs such as food,energy and materials,and is also extremely important for maintaining ecological balance,regulating the climate and promoting the sustainable development of the region.Studying the topographical heterogeneity of the region is first of all a true grasp of the topography of the region,which has certain guiding significance for people's production and life.In addition,studying the impact of topographical heterogeneity on the climate of the region will help to study the formation and variation of regional climate.

基于GEE云平台的三江源湖泊面积提取及动态变化

基于GEE(Google Earth Engine)遥感云计算平台和Landsat TM、ETM+和OLI卫星影像数据,采用修正归一化水体指数(MNDWI)、归一化植被指数(NDVI)和增强植被指数(EVI)等多个指数的综合水体识别算法,提取三江源区1990—2020年大于1 km^(2)的湖泊面积,结合气象、冰川编目、冻土分布等数据分析了湖泊面积变化及其影响因素。结果表明:1990年以来,三江源区湖泊增加了46个,湖泊面积从10811.8 km 2增加到12449.53 km^(2),增长了15%;其中,黄河源区湖泊面积增长了10%,长江源区湖泊面积增长了29%,长江源区较黄河源湖泊面积增幅更明显。平均气温升高和降水量增加是湖泊面积增加的主要因素;气温升高导致冰川退缩和冻土退化,使得冰川补给型湖泊和冻土区湖泊面积增加更快,这就是长江源区湖泊增长更为明显的主因,而黄河源湖泊面积增长与降水变化联系更为紧密。

黄河源区水文预报的关键科学问题

黄河源区水文预报对龙羊峡、刘家峡等黄河上游梯级水库群的洪水资源化调度乃至整个黄河流域的水旱灾害防御都起着举足轻重的作用。然而,由于降水的地面观测严重匮乏、且缺少适用于高寒山区的专用水文模型,源区水文预报成为长期困扰黄河洪水/径流业务预报的难题。在回顾国内外相关研究的基础上,从高海拔缺资料地区的降水观测与降水预报、寒区水文模型构建与气象水文耦合系统集成、高原降水发生的气象成因与形成机制3个方面,评价了黄河源区水文预报的当前现状与技术水平,提出了黄河源区水文预报面临的关键科学问题;指出新一代多源降水信息融合与同化、高寒区特殊产汇流模型构建、无缝隙气象水文集合预报、强降水与连阴雨的多影响天气系统解析等,是当前黄河源区水文预报的研究重点与发展方向。

西藏江河源区自然保护地体系建设现状、问题和策略

西藏高原作为欧亚大陆大江大河发育最多的区域,是我国乃至亚洲重要的江河源。自然保护地是保护江河源区生态系统的重要载体,在全球气候变化下,开展西藏江河源区自然保护地体系优化建设具有典型性和必要性。通过资料分析、现场调查、查阅文献等方法,梳理了西藏江河源区涉及自然保护地的现状,总结了空间布局空缺突出、生态保护挑战加剧、管理体系不完备等问题,并提出了优化空间布局结构、夯实资源保护、完善管理体系的自然保护地体系优化建设策略,以期为青藏高原等世界上重要的生物多样性热点区域自然保护地体系优化建设提供借鉴。