Evaluation of hydro-chemistry in a phreatic aquifer in the Vindhyan Region, India, using entropy weighted approach and geochemical modelling

Groundwater quality monitoring and geochemical characterization in the phreatic aquifer are critical for ensuring universal and equitable access to clean,reliable,and inexpensive drinking water for all.This research was intended to investigate the hydrogeochemical attributes and mechanisms regulating the chemistry of groundwater as well as to assess spatial variation in groundwater quality in Satna district,India.To accomplish this,the groundwater data comprising 13 physio-chemical parameters from thirty-eight phreatic aquifer locations were analysed for May 2020 by combining entropy-weighted water quality index(EWQI),multivariate statistics,geochemical modelling,and geographical information system.The findings revealed that the groundwater is fresh and slightly alkaline.Hardness was a significant concern as 57.89% of samples were beyond the permissible limit of the World Health Organisation.The dominance of ions were in the order of Ca^(2+)> Na^(+)> Mg^(2+)> K^(+) and HCO_(3)^(-)> SO_(4)^(2-)> Cl^-> NO_(3)^(-)> F^(-).Higher concentration of these ions is mainly concentrated in the northeast and eastern regions.Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis(PCA) demonstrated that both natural and human factors regulate groundwater chemistry in the region.The analysis of Q-mode agglomerative hierarchical clustering highlighted three significant water clusters.Ca-HCO_3 was the most prevalent hydro-chemical facies in all three clusters.Geochemical modelling through various conventional plots indicated that groundwater chemistry in the research region is influenced by the dissolution of calcite/dolomite,reverse ion exchange,and by silicate and halite weathering.EWQI data of the study area disclosed that 73.69% of the samples were appropriate for drinking.Due to high salinity,Magnesium(Mg^(2+)),Nitrate(NO_(3)^(-)),and Bicarbonate(HCO_(3)^(-)) concentrations,the north-central and north-eastern regions are particularly susceptible.The findings of the study may be accomplished by policymakers and groundwater managers to achieve sustainable groundwater development at the regional scale.

The Association of Visceral Adiposity Index with Insulin Resistance in Adults with Prediabetes

Visceral adiposity mediates insulin resistance, but their association among adults with prediabetes is scarce in the literature. This study is aimed to determine the association of visceral adiposity index (VAI) with insulin resistance in adults with prediabetes. This cross-sectional study was done among 117 adults with newly detected prediabetes [m/f;23/94;mean ± SD: Age 36.30 ± 9.99 years, BMI 28.89 ± 4.35 kg/m2] based on American Diabetes Association 2018 criteria and 141 matched healthy controls [m/f: 28/113;mean ± SD: 35.30 ± 6.88 years, BMI 25.03 ± 4.58]. Waist circumference, body mass index, fasting triglyceride, HDL cholesterol, fasting blood glucose and insulin were measured in each group to calculate VAI and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). People with prediabetes had significantly higher median value of VAI {3.08 (2.26) vs. 1.86 (2.31);p < 0.001} with higher frequency of high VAI (>1) (98.3% vs. 85.8%;p < 0.001) than the control population. HOMA-IR level was significantly higher in prediabetes with high VAI (cut-off of 2.64) than control with normal VAI [2.78 (2.22, 4.15) vs. 2.20 (1.53, 3.36);p = 0.002]. VAI was positively correlated with HOMA-IR in females with prediabetes (r = 0.299, p = 0.003). VAI had predictive association with prediabetes [OR (95% CI: 9.504 (2.173, 41.576);p = 0.03] and high insulin resistance (HOMA-IR ≥ 2.6) in females with prediabetes [OR (95% CI) = 3.50 (1.476, 8.297);p = 0.004] only. It could satisfactorily discriminate prediabetes in both sexes (male: AUC = 0.767, p = 0.001;female: AUC = 0.641, p < 0.001) and high insulin resistance in females with prediabetes (AUC = 0.641;p = 0.019) only. So, VAI was associated with prediabetes and insulin resistance only in females with prediabetes.

Construction of Trail Tourist Attractions Assessment Index System

Based on the further analysis of trail's concept,trail tourist attractions was proposed as a new concept,and the 5-dimension(trail resource,trail operation,trail technology,trail management and trail economic index) theoretical assessment framework for trail tourist attractions was established. Trail route selection,trail pavement and trail management grade were taken for example to explain the specifications for these secondary indexes. The future research should expand the index system to cover all secondary indexes of the 5 dimensions,put the concept of trail tourist attractions into tourism planning practices,and provide examples for the construction of trail tourist attractions across the country. Proposal of the concept of trail tourist attractions and its assessment standards is an attempt and innovation in the development of scenic areas,and will possibly result in the new development rules of scenic areas.

Immunosuppressive therapy in pancreas and islet transplant: Need for simultaneous assessment of insulin sensitivity and secretion

Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disease possible to treat via pancreas/islet transplantation but most immunosuppressive drugs are diabetogenic. In this letter, we review current up to date methods to assess insulin action and secretion (using the surrogate indexes) suggesting their use in large studies in populations of pancreas/ islets transplanted patients.

The Assessment of Groundwater Vulnerability Due to Leaching of Chemicals: The Review of Attenuation Factor

To assess the groundwater vulnerability due to leaching of chemicals, the groundwater system in the unsaturated zone is characterized by conceptual models that are further extended and refined with more detailed mathematical models to understand the governing physical processes in detail. However, due to lack of data and uncertainty level, an intermediate transition through index based models is researched. The attenuation factor (AF) approach, which works under the assumption that the chemicals degrade following a first-order kinetics and determines the fraction of the chemicals that goes to groundwater table, is one of the index based models that has been widely used due to its simplicity. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to review the research works done using the AF approach, to outline the future research needs. Furthermore, the mathematical implementation of the AF approach and the associated uncertainty levels is explained through an example and MATLAB source code.

A Comparative Analysis of Environmental Quality Assessment Methods for Heavy Metal-Contaminated Soils

Four assessment methods(two pollution indexes and two fuzzy mathematical models) were employed to investigate the environmental quality of four soils around a ferroalloy plant in Nanjing City.Environmental quality was assessed as class IV(moderately polluted) for each soil with single-factor index method,and was identified to be classes IV,III(slightly polluted),III,and III for soils A,B,C,and D,respectively,with the comprehensive index model.In comparison with the single-factor index method,the comprehensive index model concerned both dominant parameter and average contribution of all factors to the integrated environmental quality.Using the two fuzzy mathematical methods(single-factor deciding and weighted average models),the environmental risks were determined to be classes IV,III,II(clean),and II for soils A,B,C,and D,respectively.However,divergence of the membership degree to each pollution class still occurred between the two methods.In fuzzy mathematical methods,membership functions were used to describe the limits between different pollution degrees,and different weights were allocated for the factors according to pollution contribution.Introduction of membership degree and weight of each factor to fuzzy mathematical models made the methods more reasonable in the field of environmental risk assessment.

The Volatilization of Pollutants from Soil and Groundwater: Its Importance in Assessing Risk for Human Health for a Real Contaminated Site

Pollution of different elements (air, water, soil and subsoil) resulting both from accidental events and from ordinary industrial and civil activities causes negative effects on the human health and on the environment. The present paper examines the analysis of a contaminated site, focusing the attention on the negative effects for receptors exposed to soil and groundwater contamination caused by industrial activities. The case study investigated is a contaminated area located in the industrial district of Trento North once occupied by the Italian Carbochimica plant. Pollution in that area is mainly due to contamination of soil and groundwater with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The methodology applied is the risk evaluation for human health, in terms of individual cancer risk and hazard index. In particular the attention has been focused on a specific migration way: if pollutants in the soil or in the groundwater undergo a phase change, they spread and get to the soil surface, causing a dispersion of vapors in the atmosphere. In this case risk assessment calls for the evaluation of volatilization factor. Among the different models dealing with the estimation of volatilization factor, those mostly known and used in the national and international field of Human Health Risk Assessment were chosen: Jury’s and Farmer’s models. A sensitivity analysis of models was performed, in order to identify the most significant parameters to estimate the volatilization factors among the wide range of input parameters for the application of models. Performing an accurate selection and data processing of the contaminated site, models for the volatilization factors calculation are applied, thus evaluating air concentrations and Human Health Risk. The analysis of the resulting estimates is an excellent aid to draw interesting conclusions and to verify if the soil and groundwater pollutants volatilization affects the human health considerably.

Morphodynamics and sediment connectivity index in an unmanaged,debris-flow prone catchment:a through time perspective

Torrential processes are among the main actors responsible for sediment production and mobility in mountain catchments.For this reason,the understanding of preferential pathways for sediment routing has become a priority in hazard assessment and mitigation.In this context,the sediment Connectivity Index(IC)enables to analyse the existing linkage between sediment sources and the selected target(channel network or catchment outlet).The IC is a grid-based index that allows fast computation of sediment connectivity based on landscape information derived from a single Digital Terrain Model(DTM).The index computation is based on the log-ratio between an upslope and a downslope component,including information about drainage area,slope,terrain roughness,and distance to the analysis target(e.g.outlet).The output is a map that highlights the degree of structural connectivity of sediment pathways over analysed catchments.Until now,these maps are however rarely used to help defining debris-flow hazard maps,notably due to a lack of guidelines to interpret the IC spatial distribution.This paper proposes an exploitation procedure along profiles to extract more information from the analysis of mapped IC values.The methodology relies on the analysis of the IC and its component variables along the main channel profile,integrated with information about sediment budgeting derived from Difference of DEMs(DoD).The study of connectivity was applied in the unmanaged sub-catchment(without torrent control works)of the Rio Soial(Autonomous Province of Trento–NE Italy)to understanding the geomorphic evolution of the area after five debris flows(in ten years)and the related changes of sediment connectivity.Using a recent DTM as validation,we demonstrated how an IC analysis over the older DTM can help predicting geomorphic changes and associated hazards.The results show an IC aptitude to capture geomorphic trajectories,anticipate debris flow deposits in a specific channel location,and depict preferential routing pathways.

中国农田磷流失风险评价及其关键驱动因素

农田面源磷流失是农业面源污染的重要原因之一,识别流域内农田磷流失风险的关键源区及其影响因子是面源污染控制的重要手段。基于磷指数模型开展2000—2020年中国农田磷流失风险评估,选取土壤有效磷含量、磷肥施用量为源因子,土壤侵蚀模数、年径流深、农田和水体间归一化距离指数为迁移因子,结合GIS技术评估了中国农田磷流失的关键源区;在此基础上,利用随机森林法分析影响中国农田磷流失的关键因子,并通过结构方程模型揭示了农田磷流失风险指数与各因子的关系。结果表明:1)2000—2020年中国农田的磷流失的低、中、高、极高风险面积分别占农田总面积的43.8%、40.5%、13.4%、2.4%。2)中国农田磷流失在2000、2005、2010、2015、2020年高风险和极高风险总面积的年平均占比从大到小依次为:淮河流域、长江流域、珠江流域、东南诸河流域、松辽河流域、西南诸河流域、黄河流域、内陆河流域、海河流域。3)影响农田磷流失风险的关键源因子和迁移因子分别为土壤有效磷含量和归一化距离指数,其重要性特征值分别为129.53和65.12,土壤有效磷含量是农田磷流失最主要影响因子。4)磷流失风险指数与源因子指数、迁移因子指数呈极显著正相关,选取的14个指标对磷指数的解释度达0.62,其中源因子和迁移因子对磷指数的贡献率分别为0.77、0.19(P <0.001)。研究结果可为中国农田磷流失风险评估提供科学参考,对中国农业面源污染的宏观防控及战略决策具有重要意义。

基于陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价方法探讨

海洋、海岸带蕴含的资源丰富,与人类生存发展息息相关。近年来,随着海洋经济的迅速增长,自然岸线和滨海湿地面积减少、生物多样性降低、典型生态系统受损、近岸海域灾害频发、渔业资源减少等问题日益显现。如何从战略高度提升海洋经济,开发和保护并举,确保海岸带、海洋资源取用合理是新时代的重要课题。陆地和海洋是生态系统不可分割的组成部分,开展陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价是衡量区域经济发展与生态环境是否协调可持续发展的有效途径。文章系统地梳理了承载力概念的发展历程,对比了常用的海洋资源环境承载力评价方法,初步构建了陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价指标体系,并提出使用熵值法来确定指标权重,采用状态空间评价模型或TOPSIS模型进行承载力综合评价,可以体现陆地和海洋相互影响、相互制约的关系,并具有较强的可操作性,评价结果可以反映区域资源环境承载力的空间差异或随时间变化情况,能够为海洋和海岸带保护利用提供有效借鉴。

长江中上游重要渔业水域环境质量评估

为准确评估长江中上游重要渔业水域水环境质量现状及变化趋势,提高水质评价效率,本研究基于11个水质参数,采用水质指数法(water quality index,WQI)对2006-2021年长江中上游三个重要渔业水域水质进行了综合评价,建立WQI min综合评价模型。结果显示:(1)长江中上游重要渔业水域的水温和高锰酸盐指数呈上升趋势;基于地表水环境质量标准(GB38338-2002),单因素水质评价结果表明监测水域内整体水质处于地表水Ⅴ类水标准,部分年份达劣Ⅴ类,主要污染指标为总氮。(2)通过综合评价方法分析,长江中上游重要渔业水域整体为“良”;2006~2021年长江中上游重要渔业水域水质质量呈逐年改善的趋势,且上游保护区的改善较大。(3)基于WQI方法,确定了长江中上游重要渔业水域的关键水质参数为:总氮、高锰酸盐指数、汞、溶解氧、氨氮、悬浮物以及水温,分别构建了上游保护区、中华鲟保护区以及四大家鱼保护区的WQI_(min)模型;考虑权重和不考虑权重的WQI min模型对比分析表明,考虑权重的WQI min模型的水质评价结果更加准确,该方法可有效评估长江中上游重要渔业水域的水质变化特征并可扩展用于其他水域。

基于改进AHP-灰云模型的模块栈桥加工制造安全风险评价

为了对新型模块式钢栈桥加工安全风险进行客观评价,保障生产顺利进行,采用改进AHP-灰云模型对某模块栈桥加工制造过程进行安全风险评价。从人、机械、物料、环境和管理5个方面开展系统研究,建立了包括9项二级指标和28项三级指标的安全风险评价指标体系。采用改进的层次分析法确定指标权重值,将现场安全风险评估值输入灰云模型,进行风险等级的确定。研究结果表明该方法适用于模块栈桥加工制造安全风险评价,经分析吊车与地面作业交叉情况、机械设备的检查维修、噪声的影响三项指标风险值较高,并提出相应的风险防范措施。

泌尿科围手术期老年患者衰弱的临床评估与应用的研究进展

衰弱是一类与患者年龄相关的复杂临床状态,以多器官系统的生理机能下降导致机体对应激源耐受性降低为特征。衰弱评估与老年患者围手术期的安全性之间的关系已引起普遍重视。本文对泌尿外科围手术期老年患者衰弱评估及其应用的研究进展进行综述。

基于WOFOST模型的玉米干旱损失评估:以北京为例

以北京市山区春玉米和平原区夏玉米产量作为研究对象,利用气候资料和统计资料驱动,就WOFOST模型对北京地区玉米产量模拟的适用性进行评估,并基于模型开展北京地区玉米干旱灾害损失评估研究。结果表明:(1)山区春玉米和平原区夏玉米的产量模拟值与统计年鉴统计值的符合度指数均达0.9以上,模拟结果平均误差小于10%,说明WOFOST模型在北京地区春玉米和夏玉米的产量模拟方面具备较强的适用性;(2)在本文定义的干旱指数体系下,初夏旱对春玉米的产量影响较大,其中初夏轻旱导致春玉米减产率达15.91%,初夏重旱使春玉米减产率达22.99%;春旱和伏旱对春玉米、初夏旱和伏旱对夏玉米产量影响均较小,减产率均在10%以下。研究结果可为北京地区玉米生产和抗旱减灾提供科学依据。

基于隐马尔可夫模型的火灾风险评估研究

近年来全球气候变化越来越复杂,自然灾害频发,森林防火形式日益严峻,森林火灾风险评估工作越来越重要。为此,基于隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model, HMM)提出一种森林火险评估模型。首先构建森林火灾风险指标体系,将其分为气象条件、森林特征以及防火意识和能力3类12个指标,并根据层次分析法计算指标权重。同时,针对HMM模型求解过程中Baum-Welch算法对初始值有较强的依赖性且容易陷入局部最优的问题,提出通过粒子群优化算法搜索全局最优解作为HMM初始值,再使用Baum-Welch算法进行局部校正,使其快速收敛到全局最优解。利用优化前后的2个模型分别对重庆市森林火灾风险数据开展评估,验证优化后的模型能够有效地评估森林火灾风险,并且与改进前相比更精确,可为区域森林防火工作提供有效指导。

网络安全风险评估方法研究综述

网络安全风险评估是构建网络空间安全体系的重要环节,可以有效保护个人和组织机构避免受到网络安全攻击。文中简要概述了网络安全风险评估理论,重点介绍了目前主流的网络安全风险评估方法,并根据不同的方法性质对现有方法进行分类和对比,分析了各方法的优缺点以及适用范围。在此基础上,文中归纳提取出对网络安全评估结果产生影响的因素并对网络安全评估领域未来的研究重点进行提议。分析结果表明,关联性和评估指标的不确定性以及评估过程的实时性这3个因素是影响风险评估效果的主要因素,并给未来的风险评估方法研究提供了参考依据。

研训者数据领导力测评模型构建与应用研究

随着全球数字经济的蓬勃发展,数据日益成为重要战略资源和新型生产要素,对领导者的任务和能力要求带来了革命性变化,数据领导力的概念应运而生。研训者作为我国教师专业发展的引领者和指导者,只有具备一定的数据领导力才能更加从容地应对数字时代给教育教学和教师发展带来的全新挑战。科学测评是高质高效进行能力培养和发展的先决条件,但目前我国尚缺乏具有指导性的研训者数据领导力测评模型。基于此,该研究遵循教育测评模型构建的一般范式,通过厘清研训者数据领导力的内涵特征,从理论思辨与实证分析两方面构建了包含数据使用规划、数据探究指导、数据文化建设等3个一级指标、13个二级指标的研训者数据领导力测评模型。实证检验结果表明,该测评模型具有较好的可行性和有效性,可以为科学精准测评研训者的数据领导力水平提供理论指导。最后,基于我国研训者数据领导力的现状水平和存在问题,该研究从多智力投入、多角色参与、多场景构建三个方面提出了具体的对策建议。

老年脓毒症患者住院期间死亡风险预测模型的建立与验证

目的建立并验证可预测老年脓毒症患者住院死亡风险的模型。方法回顾性纳入2019年1月—2022年12月哈尔滨医科大学附属第一医院重症医学科住院治疗的238例脓毒症患者,以住院期间转归情况为主要结局指标,分为死亡组68例(28.57%)和生存组170例(71.43%)。采用多因素Logistic回归法筛选脓毒症患者住院死亡的独立危险因素,并根据影响因素构建预测脓毒症患者住院死亡风险的模型。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线对预测模型的性能进行评定,结果以曲线下面积(AUC)表示;基于2016年1月—2018年12月的176例脓毒症患者的临床资料进行外部验证。结果单因素分析显示,与生存组比较,死亡组年龄>70岁的比率、急性肾损伤(AKI)Ⅲ期比率及红细胞分布宽度(RDW)、纤维蛋白原、乳酸、血肌酐、英国早期预警评分(NEWS)、快速序贯器官衰竭评分(qSOFA)升高,氧合指数、白蛋白降低,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄>70岁(OR=1.426,95%CI:1.055~1.928)、乳酸>6 mmol/L(OR=1.436,95%CI:1.105~1.867)、RDW>16%(OR=1.354,95%CI:1.080~1.698)、AKIⅢ期(OR=1.982,95%CI:1.407~2.791)、qSOFA>2分(OR=1.853,95%CI:1.255~2.738)是脓毒症患者住院期间死亡的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。根据回归分析结果,建立脓毒症患者死亡风险方程,一致性指数(Cindex)=-1.694+0.355×年龄+0.303×RDW+0.362×乳酸+0.684×AKIⅢ期+0.617×qSOFA。ROC曲线显示,内部验证时Cindex预测脓毒症患者住院期间死亡的AUC为0.882(95%CI:0.834~0.929),灵敏度为83.82%,特异度为77.06%;外部验证时Cindex预测脓毒症患者住院期间死亡的AUC为0.823(95%CI:0.757~0.889),灵敏度为74.13%,特异度为81.36%。结论年龄、乳酸、RDW、AKI分期、qSOFA与老年脓毒症死亡风险具有相关性,基于这些参数构建的模型可能有助于预测老年脓毒症住院期间全因死亡风险。

基于综合视角的县域国土空间冲突测度与功能优化——以江西省宜黄县为例

[目的]测度国土空间冲突强度,分区探讨国土空间冲突管理和优化国土空间利用途径,为县域国土空间可持续开发利用提供新的思路。[方法]以江西省宜黄县为例,通过景观生态指数模型、可开发强度分析、用地现状与适宜性评价叠加3种方法,以“把握景观格局—明确开发强度—摸底适宜性—实现功能优化”综合视角为导向,构建综合视角下国土空间冲突测度模型,识别乡镇尺度下空间显著冲突与区域本位基底相耦合的综合冲突类型区,进而提出功能优化措施。[结果]①2010—2020年宜黄县城镇化趋势扩大,生态空间的容纳度变低,国土空间主要表现为农业生产空间和生态空间向工矿生产空间和城镇生活空间转移。②2010—2020年宜黄县区域空间冲突强度加剧,不同时段和区域下空间冲突强度和分布情况差异显著,可控空间主要分布在南部,轻度和中度冲突在域内分布较为均匀,重度冲突主要分布在北部、中部和东部。③根据开发强度和冲突产生诱因,可将宜黄县乡镇划分为地形发展劣势区、城镇开发密集区和自然保护地集中区3类,作为空间功能优化的重点。④宜黄县乡镇尺度上空间冲突类型区分布存在差异性,表现为:农业空间与生态空间冲突>城镇空间与生态空间冲突>城镇空间冲突>农业空间冲突。⑤由综合冲突测度模型,得到宜黄县域内包含8种综合冲突组合,归并后可分为城镇扩张无序、城镇规模扩张、城镇规划不当、总体发展滞后和城镇发展滞后5种冲突类型。[结论]2010—2020年宜黄县空间冲突强度加剧,区域生态安全和粮食安全受到不断挑战。应当加强空间冲突分区管控,针对性优化区域国土空间资源开发利用。