Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of the Drought of the 1970’s and 1980’s Years in Senegal (In West Africa)

West Africa was hit by an unprecedented drought in the 1970’s and 1980’s years, with dramatic consequences for surface and groundwater resources. In the context of climate change, there are many studies for the prediction of the increase in the occurrence of these droughts. To predict this situation in the Senegalese region, it is necessary to use regional climate models, which carrying out the study. This work deals with the interest to examine the capacity of the RCMs (regional climate models) in order to reproduce the deficit on the 1970’s year rainfall in Senegal. In this work, we used daily precipitation data from five (5) regional climate models to characterize the droughts in Senegal by using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) on different time scales (3, 6, 12 and 24 months). For this purpose, the index was calculated over two distinct periods: 1951-1969 and 1970-1990. The results show that the period 1970-1990 was drier than the period 1951-1969. For the zonal average, the results show that the North of Senegal was more affected by this deficit rainfall than the South part. The analysis of the interannual variability of rainfall for some stations in Senegal shows that the drought did not start at the same time throughout the zone.

Development of a Meteorological and Hydrological Coupling Index for Droughts and Floods along the Yangtze River Valley of China

To comprehensively investigate characteristics of summer droughts and floods in the Yangtze River valley, a meteorological and hydrological coupling index （MHCI） was developed using meteorological and hydro- logical data. The results indicate that： （1） in representing drought/flood information for the Yangtze River valley, the MHCI can reflect composite features of precipitation and hydrological observations; （2） compre- hensive analysis of the interannual phase difference of the precipitation and hydrological indices is important to recognize and predict annual drought/flood events along the valley; the hydrological index contributes more strongly to nonlinear and continuity features that indicate transition from long-term drought to flood conditions; （3） time series of the MHCI from 1960-2009 are very effective and sensitive in reflecting annual drought/flood characteristics, i.e. there is more rainfall or typical flooding in the valley when the MHCI is positive, and vice versa; and （4） verification of the MHCI indicates that there is significant correlation between precipitation and hydrologic responses in the valley during summer; the correlation coefficient was found to reach 0.82, exceeding the 0.001 significance level.

Drought and flood characteristics in the farmingpastoral ecotone of northern China based on the Standardized Precipitation Index

The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China(FPENC)provides an important ecological barrier which restrains the invasion of desert into Northwest China.Studying drought and flood characteristics in the FPENC can provide scientific support and practical basis for the protection of the FPENC.Based on monthly precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations,we determined the changes in climate and the temporal and spatial variations of drought and flood occurrence in the FPENC during 1960-2020 using the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Morlet wavelet transform,and inverse distance weighted interpolation method.Annual precipitation in the FPENC showed a slightly increasing trend from 1960 to 2020,with an increasing rate of about 1.15 mm/a.The interannual SPI exhibited obvious fluctuations,showing an overall non-significant upward trend(increasing rate of 0.02/a).Therefore,the study area showed a wetting trend in recent years.Drought and flood disasters mainly occurred on an interannual change cycle of 2-6 and 9-17 a,respectively.In the future,a tendency towards drought can be expected in the FPENC.The temporal and spatial distribution of drought and flood differed in the northwestern,northern,and northeastern segments of the FPENC,and most of the drought and flood disasters occurred in local areas.Severe and extreme drought disasters were concentrated in the northwestern and northeastern segments,and severe and extreme flood disasters were mainly in the northeastern segment.Drought was most frequent in the northwestern segment,the central part of the northeastern segment,and the northern part of the northern segment.Flood was most frequent in the western part of the northwestern segment,the eastern part of the northeastern segment,and the eastern and western parts of the northern segment.The accurate evaluation of the degrees of drought and flood disasters in the FPENC will provide scientific basis for the regional climate study and critical information on which to base decisions regarding environmental protection and socio-economic development in this region.

Application of Livelihood Vulnerability Index to Assess Risks from Flood Vulnerability and Climate VariabilitymA Case Study in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

An Giang province in the Mekong Delta is the most vulnerable province the impact of flooding and climate variability. Thousand of households are at risk due to severe annual floods. This study applied the LVI （livelihood vulnerability index） to estimate flood vulnerability of Phu Huu and Ta Danh villages in An Giang province. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, health, social networks, physical, financial and natural resources, natural disasters and climate variability were collected from a survey of 120 households in each village. From these data the LVI of each village was calculated. Results show that the overall LV1 of Phu Huu village, located in the early flooded zone, is higher than that of Ta Danh village, located in the late flooded zone. The analysis also indicated that this practical method can be applied for other purposes such as to monitor vulnerability, evaluate development programs or policy effectiveness by incorporating with scenario comparison.

Regional Climate Index for Floods and Droughts Using Canadian Climate Model (CGCM3.1)

The impacts of climate change on the discharge regimes in New Brunswick (Canada) were analyzed, using artificial neural network models. Future climate data were extracted from the Canadian Coupled General Climate Model (CGCM3.1) under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios B1 and A2 defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate change fields (temperatures and precipitation) were downscaled using the delta change approach. Using the artificial neural network, future river discharge was predicted for selected hydrometric stations. Then, a frequency analysis was carried out using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function, where the parameters of the distribution were estimated using L-moments method. Depending on the scenario and the time slice used, the increase in low return floods was about 30% and about 15% for higher return floods. Low flows showed increases of about 10% for low return droughts and about 20% for higher return droughts. An important part of the design process using frequency analysis is the estimation of future change in floods or droughts under climate scenarios at a given site and for specific return periods. This was carried out through the development of Regional Climate Index (RCI), linking future floods and droughts to their frequencies under climate scenarios B1 and A2.

Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts on Island Countries in the Western Pacific: Cyclones, Floods and Droughts

Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.

Response of drought to climate extremes in a semi-arid inland river basin in China

Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin River Basin(a semi-arid inland river basin)of China for the period of 2021–2100 by employing a multi-model ensemble approach based on three climate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Furthermore,a linear regression,a wavelet analysis,and the correlation analysis were conducted to explore the response of climate extremes to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Streamflow Drought Index(SDI),as well as their respective trends during the historical period from 1970 to 2020 and during the future period from 2021 to 2070.The results indicated that extreme high temperatures and extreme precipitation will further intensify under the higher forcing scenarios(SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6)in the future.The SPEI trends under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were estimated as–0.003/a,–0.004/a,and–0.008/a,respectively,indicating a drier future climate.During the historical period(1970–2020),the SPEI and SDI trends were–0.003/a and–0.016/a,respectively,with significant cycles of 15 and 22 a,and abrupt changes occurring in 1995 and 1996,respectively.The next abrupt change in the SPEI was projected to occur in the 2040s.The SPEI had a significant positive correlation with both summer days(SU)and heavy precipitation days(R10mm),while the SDI was only significantly positively correlated with R10mm.Additionally,the SPEI and SDI exhibited a strong and consistent positive correlation at a cycle of 4–6 a,indicating a robust interdependence between the two indices.These findings have important implications for policy makers,enabling them to improve water resource management of inland river basins in arid and semi-arid areas under future climate uncertainty.

THE PRELIMINARY STUDY ON POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF FLOOD AND DROUGHT IN CHINA IN THE CASE OF GLOBAL WARMING

According to Prof. Zhu Kezhen’s(Chu K.C.)historical climatic division,the last 500 years in China can be divided into several alternately cold and warm periods.The periods of 1470-1520,1620-1720,1840-1890 had cold winters,while those of 1550-1600,1770-1830 had warm winters.Based on such division,in four kinds of periods,i.e.cold, warm,cold-warm,and warmcold (transition period),the differences between flood/drought degree in 120 stations in China and average of flood/drought degree in the last 500 years have been calculated. Positive anomaly indicates drought-prone area,while negative anomaly indicates flood-prone area. This historical experience provides a background to analyze the possible scenarios in the case of global warming in the future.The final results suggest that in the case of global warming the hazards of flood probably increase in many parts of China,such as southeast coast area,southwest,northwest, some parts of northeast and inner Mongolia while the hazards of drought probably decrease in the North China Plain,the middle reaches of the Huanghe River and its southern adjacent area. This distribution is basically consistent with that of precipitation in warming periods in this century and that resulted from climatic model in the case of CO2 doubling.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Quanzhou Based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Recent 55 Years

To analyze the characteristics of drought and flood variations in Quanzhou during recent 55 years, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) were calculated by using the monthly precipitation data from 6 meteorological bureaus across Quanzhou for 1960-2014. Results showed that: 1) During 1960-2014, the drought and flood showed Periodic variation characteristics in Quanzhou, the specific period of frequent drought was 1963-1972, 1977-1986 and 2009-2011, and the specific period of frequent flood was 1961-1962, 1972-1975, 1990-1992 and 1997-2007;the drought and flood did not have significant tendency of variation in Spring and Summer, and the drought and flood showed a non-significant downward trend in Autumn and Winter. 2) The drought and flood variation had relatively consistent trend in Quanzhou, but there was a big difference on the northwest mountainous area, the middle semi-mountainous area and the southeast coast area in some periods. 3) The precipitation cell and distribution in every season were Nan’an and Anxi, but there was a big difference in rainfall less area: it was Yongchun and Dehua in Spring, Chongwu and Jinjiang in Summer, Chongwu in Autumn, Dehua and Chongwu in Winter.

Change of Flood Patterns in China under the Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities

Based on the flood affected area （FA） data of the provinces in China from 1950 to 2005, the article discusses the change of the flood patterns in China, and investigates its relationship with climate change and human activities. The flood center shifted from North China and the Yangtze-Huaihe basin in the 1950s towards the south, north and west of China, and located in the south of the Yangtze River and South China after the 1990s. The FA in the western provinces was continuously on the rise since the 1950s. There are two characteristics for the future flood pattem in China. The pattern of ＂flood in the south and drought in the north＂ depends on the north-south shift of the maximum rainfall region in eastern China. The flood intensification to the west of Hu Huanyong＇s line mainly results from the increase of rainfall, extreme precipitation and the melting of glaciers under the background of human activity magnification.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Droughts and Floods in Shandong Province,China and Their Relationship with Food Loss

Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production,determining the scale of drought and flood control projects,and reducing food loss.The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index is calculated using monthly meteorological data from 1984 to 2020 in Shandong Province of China and is used to identify the province’s drought and flood characteristics.Then,food losses due to droughts and floods are estimated separately from disaster loss data.Finally,the relationship between drought/flood-related factors and food losses is quantified using methods such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression.The results show that:1)there is a trend of aridity in Shandong Province,and the drought characteristic variables are increasing yearly while flood duration and severity are decreasing.2)The food losses caused by droughts in Shandong Province are more than those caused by floods,and the area where droughts and floods occur frequently is located in Linyi City.3)The impact of precipitation on food loss due to drought/flood is significant,followed by potential evapotranspiration and temperature.4)The relationship between drought and flood conditions and food losses can be precisely quantified.The accumulated drought duration of one month led to 1.939×10^(4)t of grain loss,and an increase in cumulative flood duration of one month resulted in1.134×10^(4)t of grain loss.If the cumulative drought severity and average drought peak increased by one unit,food loss due to drought will increase by 1.562×10^(4)t and 1.511×10^(6)t,respectively.If the cumulative flood severity and average flood peak increase by one unit,food loss will increase by 8.470×103t and 1.034×10^(6)t,respectively.

Drought and Flood Analysis and Impact on Food Production in Fushun

Based on monthly precipitation data during 1961-2008 in 50 stations in Fushun,drought and flood indicators of three counties were calculated with Z index method. The geographical and seasonal distribution characteristics of Fushun were analyzed,and so was the impact of droughts and floods on food production. It shows that,since 1961,there are 7 poor harvest years in Fushun,with quadrennial caused by continuous seasonal floods or droughts,two years by year drought,one year by summer flood.

Characteristics and Variations of the East Asian Monsoon System and Its Impacts on Climate Disasters in China

Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.

The 1997/ 98 ENSO Cycle and Its Impact on Summer Climate Anomalies in East Asia

The observed data of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the sea temperature (ST) in the sub-layer of the equatorial Pacific, the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data and the data set of daily precipitation in China are used to analyze the characteristics of the 1997 / 98 ENSO cycle and its impact on summer climate anomalies in East Asia. The results show that the 1997/98 ENSO cycle, the strongest one in the 20th century, might be characterized by rapid development and decay and eastward propagation from the West Pacific warm pool. Influenced by the ENSO cycle, in 1997, the serious drought and hot summer occurred in North China, and in the summer of 1998, the severe floods occurred in the Yangtze River valley, especially in the Dongting Lake and Boyang Lake valleys, South Korea and Japan. The analysis also shows that: influenced by the 1997/98 ENSO cycle, the water vapor transportation by the Asian monsoon in the summer of 1997 was very different from that in the summer of 1998. In the summer of 1997, the water vapor transportation by the Asian summer monsoon was weak in North China and the northern part of the Korea Peninsula. Thus, it caused the drought and hot summer in North China. However, in the summer of 1998, the sea temperature in the sub-layer of the West Pacific warm pool dropped, the western Pacific subtropical high shifted southward. Thus, a large amount of water vapor was transported from the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the tropical western Pacific into the Yangtze River valley of China, South Korea and Japan, and the severe flood occurred there. Key words ENSO cycle - Climate anomaly - Monsoon - Drought and flood This study was supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences under Grant No. G1998040900(I).

Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario

Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential to reduce vulnerability and establish adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain （3H Plain）, which is a major grain production area in China. In this paper, we investigated the variations in drought characteristics （drought event frequency, duration, severity, and intensity） for the past 50 years （1961-2010） and under future scenarios （2010-2099）, based on the observed meteorological data and the Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5 scenario, respectively. First, we compared the applicability of three climatic drought indices： the standardized precipitation index （SPI）, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on the Penman-Monteith equation （SPEI-PM） and the same index based on the Thornthwaite equation （SPEI-TH） to correlate the recorded agricultural drought areas. Then, we analyzed the drought characteristics using ＇run theory＇ for both historical and the future RCP 8.5 scenario based on the best performing index. Correlation analyses between drought indices and agricultural drought areas showed that SPEI-PM performed better than SPI and SPEI-TH in the 3H Plain. Based on the results of SPEI-PM, drought risks including duration, severity and intensity during 1961-2010 showed an decreasing trend. However, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is expected to rise in frequency, duration, severity, and intensity from 2010-2099, although drought components during the 2010-2039 are predicted to be milder compared with historical conditions. This study highlights that the estimations for atmospheric evaporative demand would create differences in the prediction of long-term drought trends by different drought indices. The results of this study can help inform researchers and local policy makers to establish drought management strategies.

Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario

This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model(RegCM3) under the SRES(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario.The standardized precipitation index(SPI),which has well performance in monitoring the drought/flood characteristics(in terms of their intensity,duration,and spatial extent) in China,is used in this study.The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent.These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China.Considering China as a whole,the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced.In contrast,future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently.Additionally,the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on drought trends in Xinjiang, China

The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.

Comparative evaluation of impacts of climate change and droughts on river flow vulnerability in Iran

Rivers in arid and semi-arid regions are threatened by droughts and climate change.This study focused on a comparative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and droughts on the vulnerability of river flows in three basins with diverse climates in Iran.The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and precipitation effectiveness variables(PEVs)extracted from the conjunctive precipitation effectiveness index(CPEI)were used to analyze the drought severity.To investigate hydrological droughts in the basins,the normalized difference water index(NDWI)and the streamflow drought index(SDI)were calculated and compared.The effects of droughts were assessed under various representative concentration pathway(RCP)scenarios.Changes in the number of wet days and precipitation depth restricted hydrological droughts,whereas an increasing number of dry days amplified their severity.The projected increases in dry days and precipitation over short durations throughout a year under future climate scenarios would produce changes in drought and flood periods and ultimately impact the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts.Under RCP 4.5,an increase in the frequencies of moderate and severe meteorological/hydrological droughts would further affect the Central Desert Basin.Under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5,the frequencies of severe and extreme droughts would increase,but the drought area would be smaller than that under RCP 4.5,demonstrating less severe drought conditions.Due to the shallow depths of most rivers,SDI was found to be more feasible than NDWI in detecting hydrological droughts.©2020 Hohai University.Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Dryness-wetness change and regional differentiation of flood-drought disasters in Guangdong during 1480-1940AD

Based on the historical records of the drought and flood disasters during 1480-1940AD, this paper reconstructs the sequences of wetness index （WI） and drought and flood disasters. We find a good identical relationship between the fluctuation of WI sequence and the δ^18O record of the GISP2 ice core in Greenland, which shows an apparent monsoonal disposal pattern of moisture and temperature. By applying the Morlet Wavelet Transform Method to deal with the data, several apparent periodicities, such as 7-8a, 11-15a, 20-23a and ca 50a, are revealed, among which some can be attributed to the solar forcing. Based on results of Cluster Analysis of dry-wet changes, we resume the regional differentiation pattern of flood-drought disasters all over Guangdong during different climatic intervals in the LIA and, find the western and northern parts of Guangdong have undergone drastic changes in drought-flood regional differentiation, but the eastern part is relatively stable, and the area of the Pearl River Delta shows stable condition of more flood disasters.

Tropical forest canopies and their relationships with climate and disturbance： results from a global dataset of consistent field-based measurements

Background： Canopy structure, defined by leaf area index （LAI）, fractional vegetation cover （FCover） and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation （fAPAR）, regulates a wide range of forest functions and ecosystem services. Spatially consistent field-measurements of canopy structure are however lacking, particularly for the tropics. Methods： Here, we introduce the Global LAI database： a global dataset of field-based canopy structure measurements spanning tropical forests in four continents （Africa, Asia, Australia and the Americas）. We use these measurements to test for climate dependencies within and across continents, and to test for the potential of anthropogenic disturbance and forest protection to modulate those dependences. Results： Using data collected from 887 tropical forest plots, we show that maximum water deficit, defined across the most arid months of the year, is an important predictor of canopy structure, with all three canopy attributes declining significantly with increasing water deficit. Canopy attributes also increase with minimum temperature, and with the protection of forests according to both active （within protected areas） and passive measures （through topography）. Once protection and continent effects are accounted for, other anthropogenic measures （e.g. human population） do not improve the model. Conclusions： We conclude that canopy structure in the tropics is primarily a consequence of forest adaptation to the maximum water deficits historically experienced within a given region. Climate change, and in particular changes in drought regimes may thus affect forest structure and function, but forest protection may offer some resilience against this effect.