Machine Learning-Based Decision-Making Mechanism for Risk Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease

Cardiovascular disease(CVD)has gradually become one of the main causes of harm to the life and health of residents.Exploring the influencing factors and risk assessment methods of CVD has become a general trend.In this paper,a machine learning-based decision-making mechanism for risk assessment of CVD is designed.In this mechanism,the logistics regression analysismethod and factor analysismodel are used to select age,obesity degree,blood pressure,blood fat,blood sugar,smoking status,drinking status,and exercise status as the main pathogenic factors of CVD,and an index systemof risk assessment for CVD is established.Then,a two-stage model combining K-means cluster analysis and random forest(RF)is proposed to evaluate and predict the risk of CVD,and the predicted results are compared with the methods of Bayesian discrimination,K-means cluster analysis and RF.The results show that thepredictioneffect of theproposedtwo-stagemodel is better than that of the comparedmethods.Moreover,several suggestions for the government,the medical industry and the public are provided based on the research results.

Analysis of the personalized treatment and the relevant prognostic factors in children with medulloblastoma

Purpose:The present study summarized cases of children(n=32)with medulloblastoma(MB)who were treated using stratified therapy based on risk grading and also discussed the factors affecting prognosis.Methods:According to the risk stratification criteria,the cases were divided into the following four risk groups:low,standard,high,and very high.The 5-year overall survival(OS)and progression-free survival(PFS)rates were summarized.Further,the effects on the prognosis of tumor size,tumor stage,degree of resection,treatment mode,metastatic recurrence,molecular typing,and risk stratification were analyzed.Results:In the present study,following surgery,3 cases abandoned radiotherapy(RT)and chemotherapy(CHT),7 cases(<3 years of age)received only CHT,and 22 cases received combined RT and CHT.Total and near-total tumor resections were performed in 29 cases(90.6%).Subtotal resections were performed in 3 cases,and there were no surgery-related deaths.The average follow-up duration was 47 months.The average 5-year PFS and OS rates were 57.3%±7.2%and 68.7%±8.6%,respectively.The OS and PFS rates were significantly correlated with tumor-risk stratification,molecular staging,tumor stage,treatment mode,and recurrence after surgery(p<0.01).The degree of tumor resection,pathological type,and the presence of preoperative implantation were secondary factors affecting the prognosis(p<0.05).Age was correlated with the PFS rate.There was no correlation between age/tumor location/tumor size and prognosis(p>0.05).Favorable prognostic factors in the low-and standard-risk groups were stage M0,wingless-type MB,postoperative RT combined with CHT,no postoperative recurrence,age≥3 years,and total tumor resection.Conclusions:Personalized treatment strategies based on the risk stratification of MB and postoperative stratified comprehensive treatment could help improve the prognosis for MB.

Investigation of contemporary college students’mental health status and construction of a risk prediction model

BACKGROUND Due to academic pressure,social relations,and the change of adapting to independent life,college students are under high levels of pressure.Therefore,it is very important to study the mental health problems of college students.Developing a predictive model that can detect early warning signals of college students’mental health risks can help support early intervention and improve overall well-being.AIM To investigate college students’present psychological well-being,identify the contributing factors to its decline,and construct a predictive nomogram model.METHODS We analyzed the psychological health status of 40874 university students in selected universities in Hubei Province,China from March 1 to 15,2022,using online questionnaires and random sampling.Factors influencing their mental health were also analyzed using the logistic regression approach,and R4.2.3 software was employed to develop a nomogram model for risk prediction.RESULTS We randomly selected 918 valid data and found that 11.3%of college students had psychological problems.The results of the general data survey showed that the mental health problems of doctoral students were more prominent than those of junior college students,and the mental health of students from rural areas was more likely to be abnormal than that of urban students.In addition,students who had experienced significant life events and divorced parents were more likely to have an abnormal status.The abnormal group exhibited significantly higher Patient Health Questionnaire-9(PHQ-9)and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 scores than the healthy group,with these differences being statistically significant(P<0.05).The nomogram prediction model drawn by multivariate analysis includ-ed six predictors:The place of origin,whether they were single children,whether there were significant life events,parents’marital status,regular exercise,intimate friends,and the PHQ-9 score.The training set demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)of 0.972[95%confidence interval(CI):0.947-0.997],a specificity of 0.888 and a sensitivity of 0.972.Similarly,the validation set had a ROC AUC of 0.979(95%CI:0.955-1.000),with a specificity of 0.942 and a sensitivity of 0.939.The H-L deviation test result was χ^(2)=32.476,P=0.000007,suggesting that the model calibration was good.CONCLUSION In this study,nearly 11.3%of contemporary college students had psychological problems,the risk factors include students from rural areas,divorced parents,non-single children,infrequent exercise,and significant life events.

Landslide Hazard and Risk Assessment on the Northern Slope of Mt. Changbai, China

Landslide hazard and risk assessment on the northern slope of Mt. Changbai, a well-known tourist attraction near the North Korean-Chinese border, are assessed. This study is divided into two parts, namely, landslide hazard zonation and risk assessment. The 1992 Anbalagan and Singh method of landslide hazard zonation （LHZ） was modified and used in this area. In this way, an Associative Analysis Method was used in representative areas to get a measure for controlling factors （slope gradient, relative relief, vegetation, geology, discontinuity development, weak layer thickness and ground water）. For the membership degree of factor to slope failure, the middle range of limited values was used to calculate LHZ. Based on an estimation of the potential damage from slope failure, a reasonable risk assessment map was obtained using the relationship of potential damage and probable hazard to aid future planning and prediction and to avert loss of life.

Coastal erosion risk assessment of Hainan Island, China

Coastal erosion on islands is increasing due to sea level rise,frequent extreme events,and anthropogenic activities.However,studies on the multifactorial coastal erosion risk and the vulnerability of islands are limited.In this study,the Coastal Erosion Risk Assessment(CERA)method was applied for the first time to the study area in China to assess the erosion risk on the coast of Hainan Island;to explore the effects of coastal ocean dynamics,sediment movement characteristics,and anthropogenic construction;and to discuss the suitability of the method and countermeasures for coastal protection.The results show that the coast of Hainan Island shows high sensitivity,high value,low exposure,and moderate erosion.The whole island showed high vulnerability but low erosion risk,with the eastern region being more affected by erosion,particularly the eastern side of Wulong Port and Yalin Bay in Wenchang,and the shore section of Yalong Bay in Sanya,having a very high risk of coastal erosion.In addition,Monte Carlo simulation was used to check the applicability of the CERA method,and it was found that the rate of shoreline change,population density,and number of storms significantly contributed to coastal erosion,but only the short-term effects of sea level rise were considered.The effects of sea level rise and sediment grain size were primarily analyzed as influencing factors.The effects of sea level rise continue to strengthen,with coastal retreat expected to be greater than 2 m by the mid-21st century.Moreover,Hainan Island is primarily composed of the fine and medium sand types,which have little resistance to coastal erosion.Currently,the impact of sediment grain size is rarely considered in coastal erosion risk assessment studies.However,it can be incorporated into the indicator system in the future,and the spatial variation of indicators can be fully considered to strengthen the refinement study.

Analysis on Nutritional Risk Screening and Influencing Factors of Hospitalized Patients in Central Urban Area

Rational nutritional support shall be based on nutritional screening and nutritional assessment. This study is aimed to explore nutritional risk screening and its influencing factors of hospitalized patients in central urban area. It is helpful for the early detection of problems in nutritional supports, nutrition management and the implementation of intervention measures, which will contribute a lot to improving the patient＇s poor clinical outcome. A total of three tertiary medical institutions were enrolled in this study. From October 2015 to June 2016, 1202 hospitalized patients aged ≥18 years were enrolled in Nutrition Risk Screening 2002（NRS2002） for nutritional risk screening, including 8 cases who refused to participate, 5 cases of same-day surgery and 5 cases of coma. A single-factor chi-square test was performed on 312 patients with nutritional risk and 872 hospitalized patients without nutritional risk. Logistic regression analysis was performed with univariate analysis（P〈0.05）, to investigate the incidence of nutritional risk and influencing factors. The incidence of nutritional risk was 26.35% in the inpatients, 25.90% in male and 26.84% in female, respectively. The single-factor analysis showed that the age ≥60, sleeping disorder, fasting, intraoperative bleeding, the surgery in recent month, digestive diseases, metabolic diseases and endocrine system diseases had significant effects on nutritional risk（P〈0.05）. Having considered the above-mentioned factors as independent variables and nutritional risk（Y=1, N=0） as dependent variable, logistic regression analysis revealed that the age ≥60, fasting, sleeping disorders, the surgery in recent month and digestive diseases are hazardous factors for nutritional risk. Nutritional risk exists in hospitalized patients in central urban areas. Nutritional risk screening should be conducted for inpatients. Nutritional intervention programs should be formulated in consideration of those influencing factors, which enable to reduce the nutritional risk and to promote the rehabilitation of inpatients.

Dike Breach Risks of Different Flood Conditions in the Lower Yellow River

Based on the analysis of hanging rivers' actuality in the lower Yellow River and researches related to the evaluation of dike breach risks,it is put forward that the influencing factors of dike beach risks in the lower Yellow River should involve four aspects,the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes.With this,the evaluation indexes system of dike breach risks is established,and with the support of geographic information systems technology,the model of multi-hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment is applied to estimate the dike beach risks of the hanging rivers in the lower Yellow River under different flood conditions.The evaluation results of dike breach risks show the following distributing regularities of dike breach risks in the lower Yellow River:(1) Dike breach risks increase with the increase of the flood.(2) Dike breach risks decrease with the changes of river patterns along the channel.(3) There are great risks of dike breach in the wandering reaches,and it is relatively higher in the south bank than in the north in wandering reaches.(4) There is a higher dike breach risk in the north bank than in the south in winding reaches.Simultaneously,the evaluation results manifest that the evaluation indexes system established from the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes can represent the actual situation of the lower Yellow River more comprehensively.The application of multihierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment can preferably resolve the problem of hanging river dike breach,which has numerous influencing factors and complicated functionary mechanisms.The applications of geographic information systems technology with powerful spatial analysis functions make dike beach risks quantificationally displayed in different spatial positions,and reflect the differences of dike beach risks in different spatial positions of the channel in the lower Yellow River.

Assessing coordination degree of port development and urban environment and its influencing factors

Due to limited resources regarding port development,the contradiction between ports and cities has gradually become prominent.Taking China's coastal ports as an example,this paper measures the degree of coordination between port development and urban environment,and analyzes its influencing factors.We find that this coordination degree is relatively low and needs to be further improved.The regression results of the ordinary panel model show that the scale of port logistics,port infrastructure construction,and the quality of economic development play a significant role in promoting the coordinated development of the port and the urban environment.The regression results of the threshold panel model show that the expansion of the port logistics scale is only conducive to promoting the coordinated development of the port and the urban environment when the levels of port infrastructure are relatively high.In addition,the promotion effect of the port logistics scale on the coordinated development of the port and the urban environment differs depending on the quality of economic development.Therefore,the relevant departments should pay more attention to the construction of port infrastructure and the quality of economic development,making appropriate adjustments to both in order to better promote the coordinated development of the port and city environment.

Comprehensive insight into the occurrence characteristics,influencing factors and risk assessments of antibiotics in the Chaohu Basin

The pollution of antibiotics in aquatic environments has received extensive attention.Yet,research on antibiotic contamination in river-lake systems,a significant form of modern aquatic environments,still needs to be explored.This study focuses on the Chaohu Basin(China)investigating the occurrence characteristics,influencing factors,and risk assessments of antibiotics in the river-lake system.The total antibiotic concentrations in the water phase and sediment phase were 3.14–1887.49 ng/L and 0.92–1553.75 ng/g,respectively.Clindamycin was the predominant antibiotic in the water phase,whereas tetracycline prevailed in the sediment phase.Notable differences in concentration and structural composition of antibiotics between the tributaries(river system)and Chaohu Lake were observed,indicating the involvement of various geochemical processes in the attenuation of antibiotics during transport to the receiving lake.Spatial analysis suggested that the western river is the primary source of antibiotics in Chaohu Lake.Controlling nutrient influx in heavily polluted areas is crucial to addressing the escalating issue of antibiotic pollution in the river-lake system.The widespread occurrence of clindamycin in the waters is likely due to wastewater treatment plant discharges,and high-intensity human activities continue to exacerbate antibiotic contamination.Risk assessment indicated that sulfamethoxazole,tetracycline,lincomycin,and clindamycin ranked in the top four with the highest risks to the most sensitive aquatic organisms.Nonetheless,the antibiotics presented no risk to consumer health.This study provides valuable insights for controlling antibiotic pollution in riverlake systems.

Understanding Credit Risk in Internet Consumer Finance:An Empirical Analysis with a Focus on the Young Generation

In recent years,internet finance has garnered increasing attention from the public.Online lending,emerging within the framework of Internet finance as a pivotal component,has witnessed substantial growth.While online credit,within the realm of Internet finance,presents numerous advantages over traditional lending,it concurrently exposes a plethora of credit risk issues.This study aims to facilitate the effective utilization of online credit tools by the young generation within the context of Internet finance.Additionally,it seeks to ensure the overall stability of the Internet finance environment and mitigate risks for the youth.Given the significance of understanding credit risk management for college students in the age of internet finance,this paper adopts the logistic model to evaluate credit risk in internet consumer finance and provides pertinent recommendations from the perspective of the young generation.

Development and validation of a predictive model for acute-onchronic liver failure after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a cause of acute-onchronic liver failure(ACLF).AIM To investigate the risk factors of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and construct a prediction model.METHODS In total,379 patients with decompensated cirrhosis treated with TIPS at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from 2017 to 2020 were selected as the training cohort,and 123 patients from Nanfang Hospital were included in the external validation cohort.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors.The prediction model was established based on the Akaike information criterion.Internal and external validation were conducted to assess the performance of the model.RESULTS Age and total bilirubin(TBil)were independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS.We developed a prediction model comprising age,TBil,and serum sodium,which demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in both the training cohort and the external validation cohort.CONCLUSION Age and TBil are independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.Our model showed satisfying predictive value.

Coupling and Coordination Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Livable Environment System for the Elderly in China

The construction of a livable environment for the elderly is an important measure to address the challenges of aging and improve their livelihood and well-being.Based on China’s national conditions and combined with the actual development needs of the cities,it is of great significance to explore the coupling and coordination characteristics and influencing factors within the livable environment system for the elderly for the coordination and stable development.This article was based on the three subsystems of’living service environment,socioeconomic environment and ecological livable environment’,following the research framework of’process-pattern-trend-impact’,constructs an evaluation index system for the livable environment for the elderly.Entropy weight-TOPSIS evaluation model,coupling coordination degree model,center of gravity and standard deviation ellipse model and the geographic detector model were used starting from the evolution of coupling coordination types to study the spatial and temporal pattern and dynamic trend characteristics and influencing factors of internal coupling coordination types in the livable environment system for the elderly from2010 to 2019.The results showed that:1)The coordinated development of life service environment system and ecological livable environment system(LE)and socioeconomic environment system and ecological livable environment system(SE)in the livable environment for the elderly decreased from the intermediate coordination level coordination areas to the low-level quality improvement and optimization areas:coordinated transition type.The overall development level of life service environment system and socioeconomic environment system(LS)was low,and it was always at a low level.2)The coupling degree of livable environment system for the elderly was high,the coupling coordination type shown a gradually decreasing layer structure with Zhejiang,Beijing and Guangdong high-level leading demonstration areas as the axis belt.3)The coupling coordination center of the elderly livable environment system was located in Henan,and the standard deviation ellipse was distributed in the northeast-southwest direction.The development center and the ellipse of the high-level leading demonstration areas and the intermediate coordination level areas were concentrated in the central and eastern regions,while the low-level coordination areas for improving quality and efficiency are mainly located in the western region.4)Urban development,green facilities,infrastructure,government macroscopic regulation and control,economic stimulus,and housing construction were all important factors affecting the coordinated development of the livable environment system for the elderly,exerting a varying degree of effect on the level of coordinated development of various types of systems.

Research on Influencing Factors of Reservoir Construction Risk Based on Interpretative Structural Modeling

Reservoir plays an important role in the allocation and rational use of water resources, especially water resources in China are centrally distributed in the western region, and large reservoirs should be built to meet the people’s livelihood needs of each region. The construction of large reservoirs has numerous risks, the clarity of these risks helps us to better plan and make decisions before implementing the project. Search through literature reading and professional information, determined 11 risk factors in the construction phase of the reservoir construction project case, construct a risk influencing factor system under the application of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling). Studies have shown that the risks of strategic guidelines and policies and changes in infrastructure planning have the deepest impact on construction risk management. Among them, the strategic policy risk is the root impact, and the impact of the infrastructure planning change risk has a far-reaching impact. Through the above conclusions, providing management countermeasures and suggestions for the risk control of reservoir construction.

Comprehensive security risk factor identification for small reservoirs with heterogeneous data based on grey relational analysis model

Identification of security risk factors for small reservoirs is the basis for implementation of early warning systems.The manner of identification of the factors for small reservoirs is of practical significance when data are incomplete.The existing grey relational models have some disadvantages in measuring the correlation between categorical data sequences.To this end,this paper introduces a new grey relational model to analyze heterogeneous data.In this study,a set of security risk factors for small reservoirs was first constructed based on theoretical analysis,and heterogeneous data of these factors were recorded as sequences.The sequences were regarded as random variables,and the information entropy and conditional entropy between sequences were measured to analyze the relational degree between risk factors.Then,a new grey relational analysis model for heterogeneous data was constructed,and a comprehensive security risk factor identification method was developed.A case study of small reservoirs in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in China shows that the model constructed in this study is applicable to security risk factor identification for small reservoirs with heterogeneous and sparse data.

Operation Risk of Rural Cooperative Economic Organization Based on Principal Component Analysis——A Case of Sichuan Province,China

Based on the previous research,a total of 10 risk indices are selected according to the specific situation in Sichuan Province,such as natural risk,resource constraint risk,internal management risk,capital risk,technical input and output risk,market risk,contract credit risk,property risk and policy support risk.According to the questionnaire survey by cooperative economic organization of Sichuan Province,principal component analysis is used to analyze the importance and influence degree of the operation risk of rural cooperative economic organization.Result shows that in the operation of cooperative economic organization,management risk has greater influence degree and importance degree,which should be paid special attention to.Capital,property,price fluctuation,and quality of members have great degree of risk and are paid little attention to.The technical input and output risk and the contract credit risk have relatively low impact on the operation risk of cooperative economic organization and their importance is relatively low.Therefore,we should continue to maintain its advantages.Nature,resource constraint and policy support have relatively high risk awareness and low influence degree,belonging to the factors with priority attention which are controlled to some extent.Finally,suggestions are put forward,such as enhancing the management level of cooperative economic organizations,strengthening the farmer's risk awareness,and improving the risk aversion ability of cooperative economic organization.

Ecological risk assessment of surficial sediment by heavy metals from a submerged archaeology harbor,South Mediterranean Sea,Egypt

A protected semi-enclosed embayment,the Eastern Harbor(EH),is situated in the central sector of the Mediterranean coast of Alexandria,Egypt.It is a famous fishing dock and water-sport center and its importance arose after the discovery of the Ptolemaic royal quarter of ancient Alexandria.To protect this national treasure and improve its environmental health,the untreated anthropogenic effluents,which continued for decades into the EH since 1992,must be totally stopped.Accordingly,it is an important issue to continually monitor and asses the environmental status of the EH.The sediment texture,total organic carbon,and the accumulation,distribution,and ecological risks of Cd,Cr,Pb,As,Hg and A1 were determined with a total of 14 surficial sediments samples collected in the EH during 2010.Metal contents were compared to the literature data to assess the pollution status of sediments.Enrichment factors,Degree of contamination(mCd)and potential ecological risk were calculated as a criterion of possible contamination.Since mCd calculation produces an overall average value for a range of pollutants,in the present study the contamination factor that provides a measure of the degree of overall contamination in the surface layers in a particular sampling site may provide a better indication of the state of pollution in the EH sediments than other indicators.

Study on the focus strategy of e-commerce enterprise under the background of "Internet+":A case study of Kunming Ch999

Based on the background of "Internet+",after fully sorting and studying on the relevant literature of focus strategy,the paper summarizes the basic modes and influence factors.Choosing the implementation of focus strategy is the best way to gain the competitive advantage in the narrow market,but not all the enterprises are suitable to choose focus strategy.This paper mainly uses the case study method,Kunming Ch999 is selected as a case study sample,through the resources and capability analysis of Ch999,as well as the comparisons with two e-commerce platforms of Taobao and Jingdong,extracting focus strategy modes of Ch999,the influence factors and risks of focus strategy of Ch999 are also studied.Finally,in order to ensure the smooth implementation of focus strategy,putting forward some risk prevention measures.

大学生社交媒体信息安全风险感知影响因素

文章提出社交媒体信息安全风险感知影响因素关系假设,以大学生社交媒体用户群体为研究对象,通过问卷调研风险感知现状,在构建结构方程模型的基础上对问卷数据进行了模型验证和中介效应检验。研究发现:大学生社交媒体信息安全风险感知程度的城乡间差距明显,其面对信息安全风险主要采用系统式处理;媒体信任度、社会群体归属感、卷入认知会对系统式处理产生影响,知识和信息有效性会对启发式-系统式处理产生影响;系统式处理在知识、媒体信任度、社会群体归属感、卷入认知、信息有效性和风险感知之间起完全中介效应,负面情绪直接正向影响风险感知。

复发风险感知对首发缺血性脑卒中患者健康行为的影响

目的 探讨首发缺血性脑卒中患者复发风险感知对其健康行为的影响,为促进脑卒中患者健康管理提供依据。方法 于2022-03—2023-05采用一般资料调查表、缺血性脑卒中患者复发风险感知量表、脑卒中患者健康行为量表对238例首发缺血性脑卒中患者进行问卷调查。结果 238例首发缺血性脑卒中患者复发风险感知量表得分(91.58±15.23)分,健康行为量表得分(68.27±14.05)分。分层回归分析显示,复发风险感知是首发缺血性脑卒中患者健康行为的重要预测因子,可独立解释健康行为16.5%的变异。结论 复发风险感知是首发缺血性脑卒中患者健康行为的重要影响因素,提高脑卒中患者复发风险感知水平有助于促进患者健康行为。

恩施州乡村旅游地农户返贫风险评估及其影响因素研究

有效预防返贫风险是后脱贫时代脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴战略有效衔接的关键.该研究将风险的概率纳入返贫风险评估体系,从发生概率和破坏程度两方面综合评估其返贫风险,系统反映返贫风险的可能性和破坏性,进而探究其影响因素.研究发现:1)农户各维度的返贫风险水平从高到低依次为个体风险、家庭风险、社会风险和自然风险,农户受家庭风险和个体风险影响较大,存在明显的内生性、个体化特征.2)依据风险的发生概率和破坏程度,返贫风险可分为“高概率-高破坏”型、“高概率-低破坏”型和“低概率-低破坏”型3种类型,其中,“高概率-高破坏”型风险包括非农就业能力和教育负担,返贫风险指数最高,对农户返贫的威胁最大.3)抚养人数和户主的文化程度等家庭特征是影响返贫风险的主要因素,乡村旅游扶贫开发模式不同导致农户的返贫风险存在显著差异.在返贫防治实践中,应因户施策,重点防治内生性返贫,同时要根据返贫风险发生概率及破坏程度的差异,制定合理的返贫风险预警机制及防治措施.