Assessment of rehabilitation strategies for lakes affected by anthropogenic and climatic changes: A case study of the Urmia Lake, Iran

Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs.The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental,economic,and social repercussions.Urmia Lake,located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem,has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%.Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers.This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating(MODSIM)model.The model simulated changes in the lake's water volume under various scenarios.These included diverting water from incoming rivers,cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%,releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons,treated wastewater utilization,and inter-basin transfers.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP)was utilized to analyze the simulation results.Expert opinions with AHP analysis,acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake.Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake.Following this,inter-basin water transfers are suggested,with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds.It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks,advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country.This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought,normal,and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake.According to our projection,implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake's level and volume,potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.

Regional Differences in the Demand for Agricultural Socialized Service

With the gradual deepening of China's agricultural modernization,establishing a sound agricultural socialized service system is of great significance to improving the efficiency of resource use and achieving sustainable agricultural development. On the basis of the micro survey data on China's 12 provinces,we analyze the intensity of demand for agricultural socialized service in different regions as well as the main factors influencing farmers' demand willingness. The results show that there are regional differences in farmers' demand for agricultural socialized service,and among multiple factors affecting the demand willingness of agricultural socialized service,farmers' individual characteristics,household economic characteristics and farmers' social communication behavior have varying degrees of impact on farmers' choice of service.

The Supply and Demand of Agricultural Products in China Based on Balanced Diet

Promoting agricultural production and ensuring the supply of agricultural products has always been the main task of agricultural development in China,but the agricultural production in China has not yet been combined with the Chinese residents' dietary needs to formulate reasonable development goals,with a certain blindness in production. According to the dietary standards in The Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents developed by the Chinese Nutrition Society,we calculate the demand of various types of agricultural products in China under the conditions of balanced diet. In comparison with the output of various types of agricultural products in China at present,we find that the output of most of agricultural products in China has exceeded the reasonable demand of the Chinese residents under the conditions of balanced diet. Therefore,adjusting the agricultural production structure in China and advocating balanced diet has become an important way to solve the problem of balance between supply and demand of agricultural products.

Demand Elasticity for China's Major Imported Agriculture Textile Material Based on Restricted Version of Source Differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System Model

By comparing China's import of major imported agriculture textile material( cotton and wool),the characteristics of import are concluded. On this basis,a restricted version of source differentiated almost ideal demand system( RSDAIDS) is used to estimate the income and price elasticity of major imported agriculture textile material from the major sources based on the data from 1992 to 2015. The results are shown as follows.( 1) Although the dependency on imported cotton is lower than wool, the fluctuation of cotton import is much more drastic; China's demand for cotton is relatively price elastic with higher expenditure elasticity compared with wool; besides,the existence of complementarity is proved between imported cotton and wool.( 2) According to the import elasticity of cotton,demand for cotton imported from India shows priority over cotton from other sources; demand for cotton imported from America is the most price-sensitive one; substitution among cotton from different sources is weak.( 3) According to the import elasticity of wool,wool imported from Uruguay has bright market prospects. In addition,wool imported from Australia has irreplaceable advantage than that from New Zealand.

Study on the Present Situation and Influencing Factors of Farmers'Agricultural Insurance Demand in Poverty-Stricken Mountainous Areas

Agricultural insurance can avoid the risks of agricultural production and operation to a large extent,promote agricultural development and increase farmers'income,and lay a solid foundation for rural revitalization.At present,China's agricultural insurance is in the stage of all-round development,and there are still many problems,especially the farmers'mistrust of agricultural insurance and their weak willingness to participate in agricultural insurance.Based on the data and information obtained from the field visit and questionnaire survey in Enshi Prefecture,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the factors affecting farmers'agricultural insurance demand by using binary Logistic regression model.According to the conclusion of the analysis,this paper puts forward the corresponding measures and suggestions from the three dimensions of the government,insurance companies and farmers.

Demand for Meteorological Services in Smart Agriculture and Countermeasures

According to the current situation of modern meteorological services and smart agriculture in Tongliao City,the demand for meteorological services in smart agriculture was analyzed,including accurate meteorological services,point-to-point meteorological services,improved agro-meteorological disaster prevention system,and a comprehensive platform for agricultural services.Besides,some countermeasures to strengthen meteorological services for smart agriculture were proposed,such as promoting the construction of agro-meteorological big data,jointly carrying out the work of meteorological information into villages and households,promoting the construction of modern agricultural meteorological service demonstration areas,and advancing weather modification capacity construction.

The Relationship between Customer Knowledge Management and Performance of Agricultural Product Innovation

This paper takes an overview of the CKM and the performance of agricultural product innovation from contents of agricultural product innovation and customer knowledge management (CKM) ,the relation between CKM and agricultural product innovation. On the basis of the overview, it builds the theoretical framework of CKM and agricultural product innovation. It points out that enterprises can satisfy demands of customers through acquisition,share,utilization and innovation of customer knowledge,and improve performance of agricultural product innovation through speeding up agricultural product innovation.

基于Informer神经网络的农产品物流需求预测分析——以华中地区为例

保障农产品物流稳定性即是保障民生问题的关键。对农产品物流需求的预测是合理规划农产品物流稳定性的重要保证。然而,农产品物流需求的预测实际较为复杂,预测过程中会受到各种因素影响。因此,为了保证对农产品物流需求预测的准确性,需要考虑多方面影响因素。本研究以农产品物流需求作为研究对象,利用Informer神经网络构建预测农产品物流需求的神经网络模型,以华中地区河南省、湖北省和湖南省为例,对三省的农产品物流需求进行预测。同时用长短时记忆(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)网络和Transformer神经网络对华中三省农产品物流进行需求预测,将三种模型预测结果进行对比。对比结果表明本研究构建的基于Informer神经网络模型预测测试误差平均百分比为3.39%,低于LSTM和Transformer神经网络模型的4.43%和4.35%。并且用该Informer神经网络模型对三省预测出的预测值与实际值结果较为接近,河南省2021年的预测值为4185.33,实际值为4048.1,误差为3.389%;湖北省2021年的预测值为2503.64,实际值2421.78,误差为3.380%;湖南省2021年的预测值,2933.31,实际值为2836.86,误差为3.340%。表明该模型对华中三省的农产品物流需求预测的结果较为准确。三省2023年的预测值高于2021年的预测值。因此,在2021年物流运输配套设施的基础上,必须保证物流运输效率,加强物流运输能力,以满足华中地区日益增长的物流需求。

ANALYSIS ON AGRICULTRUAL INFORMATION DEMAND——Case of Jilin Province

With the rapid development of agricultural informalization in the world, the demand of agricultural information has been a focus in the international agriculture and information fields. Based on the investigation, this paper presented the four characteristics of the demand of agricultural information in China, includingregionality, seasonality, great potential demand and variation in kind and level. The factors infuencing the demand of agricultural information were analyzed by the Optimized Less Square （OLS） method. The result shows that, of all factors influcing agricultural information demand, the most important one is economy, the second is facility of information pass, and knowledge and education of user, credit of agricultural information service system and production situation follow. Taking Jilin Province as an example, this article also elaborated the agricultural information demand status, and deduced the regression model of agricultural information demand and verified it by the survey in rural Jilin.

Irrigation Water Demand Model as a Comparative Tool for Assessing Effects of Land Use Changes for Agricultural Crops in Fraser Valley, Canada

Available water for human needs and agriculture is a growing global concern. Agriculture uses approximately 70% of global freshwater, mainly for irrigation. The Lower Fraser Valley (LFV), British Columbia, is one of the most productive agricultural regions in Canada, supporting livestock production and a wide variety of crops. Water scarcity is a growing concern that threatens the long-term productivity, sustainability, and economic viability of the LFV’s agriculture. We used the BC Agriculture Water Demand Model as a tool to determine how crop choice, irrigation system, and land-use changes can affect predicted water requirements under these different conditions, which can aid stakeholders to formulate better management decisions. We conducted a comparative assessment of the irrigation water demand of seven major commercial crops, by distinct soil management groups, at nineteen representative sites, that use both sprinkler vs drip irrigation. Drip irrigation was consistently more water-efficient than sprinkler irrigation for all crops. Of the major commercial crops assessed, raspberries were the most efficient in irrigation water demand, while forage and pasture had the highest calculated irrigation water demand. Significant reductions in total irrigation water demand (up to 57%) can be made by switching irrigation systems and/or crops. This assessment can aid LFV growers in their land-use choices and could contribute to the selection of water management decisions and agricultural policies.

Issues concerning Farmland Transfer in the Development of China's Agricultural Modernization——Based on the Survey of Farmers in 21 Townships of Sichuan Province

Based on the actual survey of 724 rural households in 21 townships of Sichuan Province,this article analyzes the basic information,basic characteristics and problems in current China's farmland transfer.The results show that the rural land contractual management right is relatively stable;in farmland transfer market,the degree of development of farmland transfer-out market is higher than that of farmland transfer-in market;at the same time,there are many problems,such as fragmentation of rural land resources allocation,incomplete land property rights system,too powerful land security function,single land transfer pattern and unsound transfer system.Corresponding countermeasures are put forward as follows:unifying urban and rural planning,and adjusting distribution pattern of rural land in concert with the course of urbanization;improving land property rights system,so that the farmers have the land contractual management right with real right tendency;strengthening the legal construction of land transfer,regulating the land transfer process,and guiding regularized and legalized development of land transfer;promoting farmers' cognitive level,and establishing the intermediary platform to provide land transfer information,ensuring information symmetry between both sides of transfer;providing more non-agricultural jobs,establishing and improving social security system for farmers,and diluting the social security function of land.

Purchase-oriented Classification Model of the Spare Parts of Agricultural Machinery

Based on the classification of spare parts and the research results of the demand of spare parts,a three-dimensional classification model of spare parts of agricultural machinery is established,which includes the application axis sorted by technical characteristics,the cost axis classified by ABC method,and the demand axis classified by the demand of the spare parts of agricultural machinery.These dimension axes represent different factors,and the application of factors in purchase is analyzed.Guiding value of each dimension axis is summarized in the field of the spare parts purchase;and corresponding strategy instruction is put forward.Integrated application of these strategies by model makes the purchase have more realistic operational meaning.Application field of the three-dimensional model of spare parts is discussed;and the direction for further research is pointed out.

我国重要农产品供需变化趋势与供给保障能力提升策略

基于对我国重要农产品生产、消费和进口历史变化情况的分析,以及对2035年前变化趋势的预测,认为我国重要农产品供给保障面临国内增产边际效应递减和利用国际市场风险增大的双重挑战,应从统筹国内和国际两个大局、发展和安全两件大事出发,谋划好现代化新征程重要农产品供给保障思路。一方面,应从供需两侧入手扩产能、控消费,构建农业综合生产能力内在增长机制,针对农民务农种粮和地方重农抓粮逻辑采取差异化扶持政策,推进节粮减损、倡导节约消费;另一方面,应实施农产品进口多元化战略,提高海外供应链稳定性可靠性;此外,还应推动建立统一、联动的全国农产品大市场,完善农产品储备调节制度。

供需评价异化视角下农业生产托管服务价格形成机制存在的问题——来自江汉平原的调查问卷

农业生产托管服务价格是影响托管服务供给和需求的重要因素。基于江汉平原农业生产托管服务供需双方对托管服务价格评价的调查结果,分析了农业生产托管服务价格形成机制的现状与存在的问题。结果表明,目前农业生产托管服务价格并不是供需双方一致达成的均衡价格,农业生产托管服务市场属于不完全市场,托管服务价格水平普遍偏高,供给方有让利给需求方的空间和动机,但存在供需错配问题,托管服务价格及补贴政策对供需的调节作用并没有得到充分发挥。为此,应完善供需沟通渠道,加强服务标准建设,大力发展新型农业经营方式,优化托管补贴对象,加强政策宣传和明确补贴指向,以促进农业生产托管服务价格形成机制的完善。

2024年中国农业经济形势分析与未来10年展望

对中国农业经济形势的准确分析是判断当前和未来一段时间农业发展趋势、农产品供求关系的重要基础。本研究通过查阅文献资料和会商调研,重点分析国内外经济发展情况和人口变化情况、中国城镇化水平、城乡居民收入和消费价格、人民币汇率等宏观经济社会条件,详细分析当前及未来一段时期高标准农田建设、水资源、农业科技和农业政策等农业生产条件,并从生产、消费、贸易和价格4个方面对2024年及未来10年中国农产品供需形势进行分析和展望。宏观经济社会方面,当前及未来一段时间,中国的经济持续复苏将助力“三农”高质量发展,城镇化率不断提高,农业就业人口下降,但城乡居民收入快速增长且差距继续缩小,人民币汇率和居民消费价格将平稳运行。农业生产条件方面,未来中国还将严守耕地红线,保障耕地量质齐增,节水灌溉面积将进一步扩大,利用效率不断提升,科技助力农业生产效率效益不断提高,政策也将持续支撑加快农业强国建设。未来10年,生产方面,中国将进一步构建多元化的食物供给体系,强化“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”物质基础,实施千亿斤粮食产能提升行动,促进粮食生产体系的绿色转型,鼓励粮食减损和食物节约,全面保障粮食和重要农产品的稳产保供;消费方面,中国将充分考虑中长期城乡居民食物消费需求变化趋势,践行大食物观理念,不断优化农产品消费结构,更加注重食物多样,平衡膳食;贸易方面,随着中国农产品提质增效,国际竞争力将不断增强,农产品贸易规模不断扩大;价格方面,中国农产品市场价格形成机制将不断完善,通过收储、生产布局、上市节奏等调节,农产品产销对接能力将大幅提升,国内大宗农产品市场价格整体可控。

三水河流域农业生产空间水资源时空匹配性分析与调控研究

水资源短缺是长期制约农业经济发展的关键因素之一.针对以雨养农业为主的三水河流域农业用水需求大、水资源短缺以及用水效率低的突出问题,该研究采用水平衡理论和Penman-Monteith法,在年度、月度与作物层面上分别得到2020年三水河各子流域单元农业生产空间的供、需水量,分析供需匹配的时空特征,并判断供需矛盾的等级与类型.结果表明,三水河流域农业生产空间水资源供需匹配存在空间和时间错位性,水资源匹配性北高南低;年度农业用水整体处于“水平衡-临界匮缺”的匹配性等级,农业主产小流域水匮缺程度相对严重;月度农业生产空间水资源匹配性时空差异显著,盈余型、匮缺型和盈匮相持型小流域并存;作物用水匹配性整体表现为苹果>玉米>小麦,苹果用水的匹配关系接近于平衡,为流域用水方面的优势作物.据此,研究提出农业生产空间调控建议,为提高三水河流域农业生产水资源利用效率和优化农业空间布局提供参考.

基于产业需求的现代农业经济管理专业人才培养方案设计与实施

以黑龙江农业经济职业学院现代农业经济管理专业实践改革为例,系统总结基于行业产业需求的人才培养方案修订的依据和内容。通过深入了解产业需求、广泛开展调研、重构课程体系、设计实践体系、改革教学方法及构建教学团队等环节,有效提升专业人才培养质量,为相关专业人才培养改革提供有益的参考。

政策支持下农业供给侧需求对新农人职业能力的作用机理研究

农业供给侧需求是新时代新经济环境下重要的社会活动,关系到民生福祉。农业供给侧结构性改革、供给体系质量提高、供给效率提升等与政府政策实施及新农人职业能力发展有着密不可分的联系。通过广泛调研、数据分析、计量验证、科学假设等各变量机理的研究,发现政策支持下的农业供给侧的主体性需求对新农人职业能力有显著的提升效果,对加速农村产业融合发展以及促进乡村农业振兴有积极的促进作用。