The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Roadway Design and Evacuation Routes in Delaware

As the global temperature continues to increase, the sea level continues to rise at a rapid rate that has never been seen before. This becomes an issue for many facets of life but one of the most impacted is the transportation infrastructure. Many people living in low elevation coastal areas can become trapped by flooding with no way in or out. With Delaware being a coastal state, this would affect a large portion of the population and will have detrimental effects over time if nothing is done to combat sea level rise. The issue with sea level rise in transportation is that once the roads become flooded, they become virtually unusable and detour routes would be needed. If all the roads in a coastal area were to be affected by sea level rise, the options for detours would become limited. This article looks at direct solutions to combat sea level rise and indirect solutions that would specifically help transportation infrastructure and evacuation routes in Delaware. There is not one solution that can fix every problem, so many solutions are laid out to see what is applicable to each affected area. Some solutions include defense structures that would be put close to the coast, raising the elevation of vulnerable roads throughout the state and including pumping stations to drain the water on the surface of the road. With an understanding of all these solutions around the world, the ultimate conclusion came in the form of a six-step plan that Delaware should take in order to best design against sea level rise in these coastal areas.

Investigations on spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, classical turning points and inertial rotation and centrifugal distortion constants for the 1 ＋ X^1∑g^＋ state of sodium dimer

The density functional theory （B3LYP, B3P86） and the quadratic configuration-interaction method including single and double substitutions （QCISD（T）, QCISD） presented in Gaussian03 program package are employed to calculate the equilibrium internuclear distance Re, the dissociation energy De and the harmonic frequency We for the XIEg＋ state of sodium dimer in a number of basis sets. The conclusion is gained that the best Re, De and We results can be attained at the QCISD/6-311G（3df,3pd） level of theory. The potential energy curve at this level of theory for this state is obtained over a wide internuclear separation range from 0.16 to 2.0 nm and is fitted to the analytic Murrell-Sorbie function. The spectroscopic parameters De, DO, Re, ωe, ωe Xe, αe and Be are calculated to be 0.7219 eV, 0.7135 eV, 0.31813 nm, 151.63 cm^-1, 0.7288 cm^-1, 0.000729 cm^-1 and 0.1449 cm^-1, respectively, which are in good agreement with the measurements. With the potential obtained at the QCISD/6-311G（3df,3pd） level of theory, a total of 63 vibrational states is found when J = 0 by solving the radial SchrSdinger equation of nuclear motion. The vibrational level, corresponding classical turning point and inertial rotation constant are computed for each vibrational state. The centrifugal distortion constants （Dr Hv, Lv, Mv, Nv and Ov） are reported for the first time for the first 31 vibrational states when J = 0.

Ab initio calculations on the spectroscopic constants, vibrational levels and classical turning points for the 2^1Пu state of dimer ^7Li2

The accurate dissociation energy and harmonic frequency for the highly excited 2^1Пu state of dimer ^7Li2 have been calculated using a symmetry-adapted-cluster configuration-interaction method in complete active space. The calculated results are in excellent agreement with experimental measurements. The potential energy curves at numerous basis sets for this state are obtained over a wide internuclear separation range from about 2.4a0 to 37.0a0. And the conclusion is gained that the basis set 6-311＋＋G（d,p） is a most suitable one. The calculated spectroscopic constants De, Re, ωe, ωeχe, ae and Be at 6-311＋＋G（d,p） are 0.9670 eV, 0.3125 nm, 238.6 cm^-1, 1.3705 cm^-1, 0.0039 cm^-1 and 0.4921 cm^-1, respectively. The vibrational levels are calculated by solving the radial SchrSdinger equation of nuclear motion. A total of 53 vibrational levels are found and reported for the first time. The classical turning points have been computed. Comparing with the measurements, in which only the first nine vibrational levels have been obtained so far, the present calculations are very encouraging. A careful comparison of the present results of the parameters De and We with those obtained from previous theories clearly shows that the present calculations are much closer to the measurements than previous theoretical results, thus representing an improvement on the accuracy of the ab initio calculations of the potentials for this state.

Numerical Simulation of the Influence of Mean Sea Level Rise on Typhoon Storm Surge in the East China Sea

In this paper, ECOMSED （Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model with sediment transport） model is employed to simulate storm surge process caused by typhoon passing across East China Sea in nearly years. Capability of ECOMSED to simulate storm surge is validated by comparing model result with observed data. Sensitivity experiments are designed to study the influence of sea level rise on typhoon storm surge. Numerical experiment shows that influence of mean sea level rise on typhoon storm surge is non-uniform spatially and changes as typhoon process differs. Maybe fixed boundary method would weaken the influence of mean sea level rise on storm surge, and free boundary method is suggested for the succeeding study.

Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

The impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei,China

Bulletins of China's National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km^2 is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km^2, 4000 km^2, 5300 km^2 and 7200 km^2, respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.

IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL EROSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NORTH JIANGSU COASTAL PLAINO

At present, approximately 36% of coasts are experiencing net erosion in the Changjiang River delta and the north Jiangru coastal plain. Future sea level rise will accelerate the process of coastal erosion. According to the ratio of the calculated value of coast retreat by Bruun rule to the estimated value by using measured data, the proportion affected by sea level rise in total coastal erosion has been estimated in this paper. When sea level rises by 20cm, the proportion determined by sea level rise will increase from 1.0% at Present to 2.2% in the future in the coasts of abandoned Huanghe River delta and from 8.5%/-9.6% to 13.5%- 15.2% in the north and south banks of the Changjiang River delta. This result is lower than that from the similar research in the world, and this phenomenon is related with the special development process of the coasts in this area. The mechanism of accelerating coastal erosion by sea .level rise is that sea level is will increase the intensity of tidal current, wave and storm surge and decrease the ability to reduce the force of waves on the tidal flat and coastal wetland due to the loss of their areas. Therefore, the length of erosion coasts will increase, the sedimentation rate of accretion coasts will decrease or even turn accretion into erosion,the width of tidal flat will reduce and coastal slope will increase. So the project of coastal protection of this area must be reinforced.

Regional Climate Damage Quantification and Its Impacts on Future Emission Pathways Using the RICE Model

This study quantified the regional damages resulting from temperature and sea level changes using the Regional Integrated of Climate and Economy(RICE)model,as well as the effects of enabling and disabling the climate impact module on future emission pathways.Results highlight varied damages depending on regional economic development and locations.Specifically,China and Africa could suffer the most serious comprehensive damages caused by temperature change and sea level rise,followed by India,other developing Asian countries(OthAsia),and other high-income countries(OHI).The comprehensive damage fractions for China and Africa are projected to be 15.1%and 12.5%of gross domestic product(GDP)in 2195,with corresponding cumulative damages of 124.0 trillion and 87.3 trillion United States dollars(USD)from 2005 to 2195,respectively.Meanwhile,the comprehensive damage fractions in Japan,Eurasia,and Russia are smaller and projected to be lower than 5.6%of GDP in 2195,with cumulative damages of 6.8 trillion,4.2 trillion,and 3.3 trillion USD,respectively.Additionally,coastal regions like Africa,the European Union(EU),and OHI show comparable damages for sea level rise and temperature change.In China,however,sea level-induced damages are projected to exceed those from temperature changes.Moreover,this study indicates that switching the damage modules on or off affects the regional and global emission trajectories,but the magnitude is relatively small.By 2195,global emissions under the experiments with all of the damage modules switched off,only the sea level damage module switched on,and only the temperature damage module switched on,were 3.5%,2.3%and 1.2%higher than those with all of the damage modules switched on,respectively.

Responses of estuarine salinity and transport processes to sea level rise in the Zhujiang(Pearl River) Estuary

Understanding the changes of hydrodynamics in estuaries with respect to magnitude of sea level rise is important to understand the changes of transport process. Based on prediction of sea level rise over the 21st century, the Zhujiang（Pearl River） Estuary was chosen as a prototype to study the responses of the estuary to potential sea level rise. The numerical model results show that the average salt content, saltwater intrusion distance, and stratification will increase as the sea level rises. The changes of these parameters have obvious seasonal variations. The salt content in the Lingdingyang shows more increase in April and October（the transition periods）. The saltwater intrusion distance has larger increase during the low-flow periods than during the highflow periods in the Lingdingyang. The result is just the opposite in Modaomen. The stratification and its increase are larger during the low-flow periods than during the high-flow periods in Lingdingyang. The response results of transport processes to sea level rise demonstrate that：（1） The time of vertical transport has pronounced increase.The increased tidal range and currents would reinforce the vertical mixing, but the increased stratification would weaken the vertical exchange. The impact of stratification changes overwhelms the impact of tidal changes. It would be more difficult for the surface water to reach the bottom.（2） The lengthways estuarine circulation would be strengthened. Both the offshore surface residual current and inshore bottom residual current will be enhanced.The whole meridional resident flow along the transect of the Lingdingyang would be weakened. These phenomena are caused by the decrease of water surface slope（WWS） and the change of static pressure with the increase of water depth under sea level rise.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on regional sea level rise in the Pacific Ocean from 1993 to 2012

The rate of regional sea level rise （SLR） provides important information about the impact of human activities on climate change. However, accurate estimation of regional SLR can be severely affected by sea surface height （SSH） change caused by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO-SSH）. Here, the PDO- SSH signal is extracted from satellite altimeter data by multi-variable linear regression, and regional SLR in the altimeter era is calculated, before and after removing that signal. The results show that PDO-SSH trends are rising in the western Pacific and falling in the eastern Pacific, with the strongest signal confined to the tropical and North Pacific. Over the past 20 years, the PDO-SSH accounts for about 30%/-400% of altimeter-observed SLR in the regions 8° 15°N, 130°-160°E and 30°-40°N, 170°-220°E. Along the coast ＆North America, the PDO-SSH signal dramatically offsets the coastal SLR, as the sea level trends change sign from falling to rising.

The effects of mean sea level rise and strengthened winds on extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea

Mean sea level rise and climatological wind speed changes occur as part of the ongoing climate change and future projections of both variables are still highly uncertain. Here the Baltic Sea’s response in extreme sea levels to perturbations in mean sea level and wind speeds is investigated in a series of simulations with a newly developed storm surge model based on the nucleus for European modeling of the ocean(NEMO)-Nordic. A simple linear model with only two tunable parameters is found to capture the changes in the return levels extremely well. The response to mean sea level rise is linear and nearly spatially uniform, meaning that a mean sea level rise of 1 m increases the return levels by a equal amount everywhere. The response to wind speed perturbations is more complicated and return levels are found to increase more where they are already high. This behaviour is alarming as it suggests that already flooding prone regions like the Gulf of Finland will be disproportionally adversely affected in a future windier climate.

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise and Tropical Cyclones in Dongzhaigang Mangroves,China

Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.

Statistical Modeling and Trend Detection of Extreme Sea Level Records in the Pearl River Estuary

Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two tide gauge stations in Macao and Hong Kong. Extremes in the original sea level records （daily higher high water heights） and in tidal residuals with and without the 18.6-year nodal modulation are investigated separately. Thresholds for defining extreme sea levels are calibrated based on extreme value theory. Extreme events are then modeled by peaks-over-threshold models. The model applied to extremes in original sea level records does not include modeling of their durations, while a geometric distribution is added to model the duration of extremes in tidal residuals. Realistic modeling results are recommended in all stationary models. Parametric trends of extreme sea level records are then introduced to nonstationary models through a generalized linear model framework. The result shows that, in recent decades, since the 1960s, no significant trends can be found in any type of extreme at any station, which may be related to a reduction in the influence of tropical cyclones in the region. For the longer-term record since the 1920s at Macao, a regime shift of tidal amplitudes around the 1970s may partially explain the diverse trend of extremes in original sea level records and tidal residuals.

Mapping Sea Level Rise Behavior in an Estuarine Delta System：A Case Study along the Shanghai Coast

Sea level rise （SLR） is a major projected threat of climate change that is expected to affect developing coastal cities located in estuarine delta regions, Shanghai is one such city, being located in the Yangtze River Delta （YRD）, It is difficult, however, for decision-makers to implement adaptation due to the uncer- tain causes, magnitudes, and timings of SLR behaviors, This paper attempts to map the causes and mag- nitudes of SLR behaviors on a decadal scale, We analyze the tidal level records from 11 tidal gauge stations and the corresponding bathymetry measurements around these stations since 1921, We identify three new SLR behaviors along the Shanghai coast due to anthropogenic geomorphologic changes （AGCs）, besides the well-known eustatic sea level rise （ESLR）, tectonic subsidence （TS）, and urban land subsidence （ULS）, The first new behavior is regional sea level rise （RSLR）, which occurs as a result of land reclamation and deep waterway regulation, The second is regional sea level fall （RSLF）, which occurs because the channel bed is eroded due to sediment supply decline in the river catchment, The last SLR behavior is local tidal datum rise （LTDR）. Thus, we project that the magnitude of SLR for the Shanghai coast ranges from 10 cm to 16 cm from 2011 to 2030, Clarifying SLR behaviors is important to aid local decision- makers in planning structural and non-structural measures to combat escalating flood damage costs in an estuarine delta system; this field is full of future challenges,

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water.The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang(Yangtze)River estuary.By correlative analysis of chlorinity,discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity,distribution of the Changjiang River estuary,the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm.The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.

Effect of Sea Level Rise and Groundwater Withdrawal on Seawater Intrusion in the Gulf Coast Aquifer: Implications for Agriculture

The two main factors contributing to depletion of freshwater resources are climate change and anthropological variables. This study presents statistical analyses that are local in its specifics yet global in its relevance. The decline in Gulf Coast aquifer water quality and quantity has been alarming especially with the increased demand on fresh water in neighboring non-coastal communities. This study used seawater levels, groundwater use, and well data to investigate the association of these factors on the salinity of water indicated by chloride levels. Statistical analyses were conducted pointing to the high significance of both sea water level and groundwater withdrawals to chloride concentrations. However, groundwater withdrawal had higher significance which points to the need of water management systems in order to limit groundwater use. The findings also point to the great impact of increased groundwater salinity in the Gulf Coast aquifer on agriculture and socioeconomic status of coastal communities. The high costs of desalinization point to the increased signification of water rerouting and groundwater management systems. Further investigation and actions are in dire need to manage these vulnerabilities of the coastal communities.

SEA LEVEL RISE OF THE ZHUJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NEOTECTONICS

A linear regression analysis of 28 selected tide-gauge stations of the Zhujiang Estuary shows that there has been a tendency of local sea level rise at a rate of 2.028 mm per year. The origin of the variation is significantly attributed to the local tectonic movement of discrepant fault-block. Based on this, four types of relative local sea level changes are classified. According to calculation, half of the fertile land, or 800 km2 of the delta plain will have been submerged by sea water by about 2040. This will yield a significant influence on the economic construction and human activities.

Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment of the Moroccan Coastal Zone to the Future Sea Level Rise

The coast of Morocco is,in many locations, physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise,due to its low topography and its high ecological,economic and touristic values. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation and erosion,based on a modeling approach and Geographical Information Systems(GIS),has enabled to identify both locations and the socioeconomic sectors that

Evaluation of Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coast of Mohammedia(Morocco):Land at Risk of Flooding and Socioeconomic Impacts

One of the significant consequences of the climate change predicted for the next decades is the sea and ocean level rise.The coastal zone of Mohammedia (Morocco),a site of significant socio-economic activeties largely open to the Atlantic Ocean,is thus confronted with hydrodynamic agents and a possible sea level rise,whose impacts will result in an immersion of the low topography areas。

EFFECT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON DISASTROUS FLOODS IN THE TAIHU LAKE LOWER REACH DEPRESSIONS AND COUNTERMEASURES

Use of numerical simulation of the tidal flow of the Changjiang River Estuary and the HuangpuRiver to forecast flood in the Taihu Lake lower reach drainage system for the case of future sea level riseof 0.4 m and 0.8 m,and floods preventing and reducing methods are discussed in this paper.